Movie Box Review

This year's Academy Awards have so far engendered the kind of enthusiasm and excitement usually associated with a suburban DMV office on a Tuesday afternoon.  People seem to be sullenly resigned to the inevitability of THE ARTIST's victory, even though it would be unlikely to get anything like a majority of the Academy's estimated 5000 votes--but with the Best Picture vote split 9 ways, it doesn't need to come anywhere near that (the winning movie could theoretically take the award with only around 556 votes).  In any case, no unified opposition has formed in favor of any particular competing film, and the same apathy exists in almost every other major category.  At this rate, we might as well be talking about presidential politics.  

Are the Oscars really doomed to be this dull?  (ABC certainly hopes not, or this could be the lowest-rated ceremony in history.)  Is there no possibility for any unexpected moments of shock or even mild surprise?  Let's take a look.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:  As Mitch Metcalf noted in his survey of Oscar wagering odds, this is one category where The Artist is at a disadvantage (odds of 2:1), probably because as a silent movie, its intertitles don't provide much in the way of sparkling dialogue.  There are many who would like to see Woody Allen get some recognition for his late-career renaissance with MIDNIGHT IN PARIS, and that's currently the 2:5 favorite.  The other nominees MARGIN CALL, A SEPARATION and BRIDESMAIDS are all likely of the "be happy you're nominated" variety, although lovers of longshots might want to consider a wager on Bridesmaids at 23:1--it's by far the biggest hit of the group, and somewhat trendy after its critics' awards.  CHOICE:  Margin Call.  PREDICTION:  Midnight In Paris.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:  No one particularly cares about this category this year, but it's one of the very few to be fairly wide open.  THE DESCENDANTS is the favorite at 2:5 because of its perceived stature in the Best Picture race, and because with its polished dialogue it feels "written," but strictly as a work of adaptation, MONEYBALL, at 4:1, probably deserves to win, and its script is by the all-star team of Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian.  There's also increasing sentiment pointing to HUGO at 5:1, another tough adaptation from a children's picture book.  TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY, which deserves its place, and THE IDES OF MARCH, which doesn't (it's actually weaker than its source material), are probably just along for the ride.  CHOICE AND PREDICTION:  Moneyball.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:  Here's where things get easy, and thus somewhat tedious.  Octavia Spencer is an overwhelming 1:20 favorite for THE HELP, and no other nominee seems to have a prayer of catching her.  Those who believe the Academy will utterly genuflect to The Artist may want to take a chance on 2d choice Berenice Bejo at 9:1, but 2011 It Girl Jessica Chastain will be back again to win in some future year, and Melissa McCarthy and Janet McTeer, with 2 of the year's most distinctive performances, will have to be content with their nomination certificates.  CHOICE:  Jessica Chastain.  PREDICTION:  Octavia Spencer.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:  Did the Academy bother to nominate anyone besides Christopher Plummer?  Oh, they did?  At 1:25, Plummer is the biggest favorite in any major category, and since unlike racehorses, actors can't be disqualified from a race for bumping another nominee or falling down and breaking their leg, he's pretty much unbeatable.  In another year, he and  Max Von Sydow (at 19:1) might have split the lovable old codger vote, but Plummer's accumulated industry goodwill just outweighs Von Sydow.'s  That leaves Kenneth Branagh (9:1) out of luck. Nick Nolte, while no longer young, isn't yet at the old codger stage of his career, and Jonah Hill is just in the promising newcomer stage of his.  CHOICE:  Max Von Sydow.  PREDICTION:  Christopher Plummer.

BEST ACTRESS:  There was a time when this looked like a real race between Meryl Streep and Viola Davis, but Davis has plunged ahead like Secretariat at the Belmont.  The current odds of 5:6 for Davis and 1:1 for Streep are misleadingly close, although one can never count out Harvey Weinstein and his none-too-subtle campaign bellowing the 29 years since Streep last won.  Michelle Williams might as well have gone lame down the stretch, Glenn Close picked the wrong year to seek a lifetime achievement award, and Rooney Mara is this category's Promising Newcomer.  CHOICE:  Michelle Williams.  PREDICTION:  Viola Davis.

BEST ACTOR:  The closest we're going to come to an exciting result this year.  George Clooney (1:2) is, well, George Clooney, as well-loved as anyone in Hollywood and with a solid stack of critics' awards to back him up this year.  Jean Dujardin (6:4) is the star of the probable Best Picture winner, and quite a charmer himself, plus he has the added degree of difficulty of performing silently (if there's one thing the Academy loves, it's degree of difficulty).  The fact that Dujardin shockingly won the SAG award means that either he has this sewn up, or that it was a reality check for Clooney's supporters, who realized they'd better get their votes in or risk blowing it.  Could Brad Pitt sneak in there at 18:1 for a universally-respected performance in a lower-profile film?  Probably not, but if this were a horserace, you'd want to include him on your exacta tickets.  Gary Oldman is a less likely sleeper at 22:1, especially because Tinker Tailor never really took off at the boxoffice.  Demian Bechir, while no newcomer, gets the Hey, We Just Noticed You slot.  CHOICE:  Brad Pitt.  PREDICTION:  George Clooney.

BEST DIRECTOR:  The smart money at 1:6 says that as Best Picture goes, so does Best Director, and that's probably right, clearing the way for Michel Hazanavicius to make his triumphant way to the podium.  If Martin Scorsese hadn't won just 6 years ago, this year would certainly be his, but he did, making his 4:1 odds probably overly optimistic.  Alexander Payne isn't the kind of showy director likely to win if his movie doesn't, so 13:1 sounds about right for him.  Terrence Malick, on the other hand, is both adored and disdained by passionate viewers on each side, and THE TREE OF LIFE wasn't enough of a hit to break him out of his art-house cell.  Those with some spare cash might want to consider Woody Allen, a huge longshot at 35:1 who's coming off the biggest hit of his career.  CHOICE:  Martin Scorsese.  PREDICTION:  Michel Hazanavicius.

BEST PICTURE:  Well, here we are.  Harvey Weinstein has, as is his wont, run an absolutely brilliant campaign for The Artist, successfully obscuring the fact that audiences in general haven't been taken by it, and playing up every conceivable voter-friendly angle.  (My favorites:  the ad emphasizing that Artist was the only Best Picture nominee to be shot in Los Angeles, and the screening hosted by producer Thomas Langmann strictly so Langmann could couple the film with The Two Of Us, the 1967 Best Foreign Film winner directed by Langmann's father Claude Berri, so that The Artist could magically be linked in voter minds with the older film's storyline of a Jewish boy rescued from the Nazis by an elderly gentile--Jews, children, the Holocaust and a lovable old codger, all in one neat package!)  The movie's 1:6 odds are well-earned.  Could anything beat it?  The 2d choice is The Descendants at 6:1, a movie that has gathered no head of steam whatsoever, and after that is the huge money-loser Hugo at 14:1 (remember, Scorsese had his victory lap 6 years ago).  Those looking for something, anything, to take the prize should probably concentrate on The Help at 18:1, the only genuine boxoffice hit of the nominees and winner of the SAG ensemble award (but the fact that the picture couldn't even get nominated for Best Director or Adapted Screenplay shows how tenuous its support probably is).  War Horse, a disappointment in every way, is somewhat puzzlingly next at 26:1.  Then the unlikely Midnight In Paris, Moneyball and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close follow at 55-59:1, and at the rear is the aesthete's dream, The Tree of Life at 73:1.  CHOICE:  Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.  PREDICTION (reluctantly):  The Artist.

Sigh.  Yawn.  We'll look in on the Oscar race again as we get closer to the big night... if we can find the energy.

Our thoughts on the movie Golden Globe nominations are here. 

Meanwhile, in television:

BREAKING BAD:  LOSER - Really, one should say Golden Globes Credibility:  Loser, because when you fail to even nominate the best season of one of the best shows of the decade, that's what you lose.  And if not nominating the series itself is a shame, passing over Giancarlo Esposito for his truly spectacular performance as Gus Fring is a crime.

NEW DRAMAS:  WINNERS - Of the 5 nominees for Best Drama, only one (Boardwalk Empire) is even in its second season.  All the others (Homeland, American Horror Story, Game of Thrones, Boss) are newcomers.  And also Winners:  Pay-Cable Networks, which are responsible for 4 of the 5.

ENLIGHTENED and GLEE:  WINNERS - For managing to garner Best Comedy nominations despite being only barely tolerable most of the time.

CALLIE THORNE:  WINNER - For the WTF nomination of the entire day, a truly bizarre nod to this very talented actress for Drama Actress in the negligible Necessary Roughness.  Among the actresses who didn't get nominated in this slot:  Connie Britton for Friday Night Lights (or for that matter, American Horror Story), Glenn Close for Damages, any of the women in Parenthood, and Anna Torv in Fringe.

MANDY PATINKIN:  LOSER - Homeland won richly deserved nominations for Drama and for its remarkable performances by Claire Danes and Damian Lewis.  But Patinkin, who's been turning in the most restrained, emotionally detailed work of his entire career, was overlooked.

The Golden Globes are given out by 80 international journalists whose opinions, when they're not voting on these awards, are of no importance whatsoever to anyone on the planet other than their particular loved ones.  But the combination of a usually entertaining TV show (hosted again this year by Ricky Gervais) and enough years to have established a brand name has created a collective delusion that The Globes Matter, and therefore they do.  The full list of nominees is here, and let's talk a bit about the day's winners and losers--Movies first.

THE FAVORITES:  WINNERS - The Artist, The Descendants and The Help all reinforced their status as the films to beat in the Oscar race, stacking up the most nominations (6 for Artist, 5 for the other two).  Ditto Brad Pitt, George Clooney and Jean DuJardin for Actor,  and Meryl Streep, Michelle Williams and Viola Davis for Actress. 

EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE:  LOSER - Is it the 9/11 theme?  The very late start to industry and press screenings?  Not clear yet, but this seemingly sure-thing Oscar contender has been coming up dry everywhere so far.

WAR HORSE:  LOSER  Yes, even with a Picture nomination.  The snub of Spielberg for director, apart from being a reminder of the bad old days when Jaws and The Color Purple could receive Oscar nominations while Spielberg was excluded, strongly suggests that War Horse isn't in the top rank of nominees.

THE TREE OF LIFE:  LOSER - One might have thought that the international sensibility of the Globes would lend itself to Terence Malick's hugely ambitious, equal parts brilliant and pretentious epic.  But one would be wrong, as Tree couldn't manage a single nomination.

THE IDES OF MARCH:  WINNER - George Clooney's mixed-bag political drama had been largely ignored thus far, but the Globes went for it in a big way, with nominations for Picture, Director, Actor (Ryan Gosling) and Screenplay.  Which leads us to...

RYAN GOSLING:  WINNER - Nominated not just for Ides, but in the Comedy/Musical Actor category for Crazy Stupid Love.  But--

CRAZY STUPID LOVE:  LOSER - Despite some of the best reviews of any comedy this year, Gosling's was its only nomination.

MONEYBALL:  WINNER:  Was in danger of being relegated to the acting and script categories, but its Picture nomination puts it back in the big-boy conversation.  (Bennett Miller's absence from the Director nominees, though, means it may not have much chance to win.)

GLENN CLOSE:  WINNER - Nearly fell out of the Best Actress race entirely for a minute there, but although she's clearly a notch below the Streep-Williams-Davis trio of favorites, at least she's back in the running.

MELISSA MCCARTHY:  LOSER - She's been the darling of critics' groups, but didn't make the cut here.  It's worth noting that 8 of the 10 Supporting Actor/Actress nominees are from Dramas rather than Comedy/Musicals, the only exceptions being Berenice Bejo from The Artist and Kenneth Branagh from My Week With Marilyn, both so clearly classy they transcend mere "comedy."

ROONEY MARA:  WINNER - The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo hasn't been much in the mix so far, but Mara gets her foot in the door for an Oscar Actress nomination.  

MADONNA/THE PAPARAZZI:  WINNERS - The Globes have never been shy about nominating celebrities so they'll show up at the awards and get some attention, and if it takes giving 2 music/song nominations to the dreadful W.E. to get Madonna to the party... so be it. 

Coming Soon:  The TV Nominees

The National Board of Review is an organization with a virtually unknown membership that exists in public consciousness for precisely one day per year, and this is their day:  the announcement of their film awards.  Their claim to fame, such as it was, came from being the first ones out of the awards gate--but this year the NY Film Critics Circle stole their thunder by revealing their picks 2 days ago.  So there's not much reason to give the NBR choices much credence in terms of the bigger race.  Having said all that, they've made some interesting and worthy choices that are very different from NYFCC's.  Below are the NBR selections and some thoughts:

Best Picture:  HUGO. 

Best Director:  Martin Scorsese, HUGO.  These awards are crucial to Hugo, which is attempting the difficult feat of coming into the market as a family entertainment and staying there as a critically acclaimed player in the Oscar game.  The film is adding theaters this weekend, and hopes to keep expanding through December.

Best Actor:  George Clooney, THE DESCENDANTS.  Certainly no surprise, but officially puts Clooney into the race. 

Best Actress:  Tilda Swinton, WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN.  A great performance in a very difficult film that's only getting a 1-week Oscar qualifying run in a couple of theatres this month.  Swinton and the film desperately need some awards momentum to get any kind of audience for this picture.

Best Supporting Actor:  Christopher Plummer, BEGINNERS  As with Clooney, this is a pro-forma introduction of Plummer into the race.

Best Supporting Actress:  Shailene Woodley, THE DESCENDANTS  A definite help to Fox Searchlight's hope to get Woodley an Oscar nomination for this role.

Best Original Screenplay:  Will Reiser, 50/50  An unexpected but very welcome choice, as this is an excellent script that hasn't been getting much attention.

Best Adapted Screenplay:  Alexander Payne, Jim Rash & Nat Fason, THE DESCENDANTS  Certainly one of the frontrunners along with Moneyball.

Best Animated Film:  RANGO  NYFCC apparently didn't find any animated film this year worthy of an award, which was bizarre in a year that gave us this exceptional picture.

Best Foreign Language Film:  A SEPARATION  A groundswell beginning to develop?

Best Documentary:  PARADISE LOST 3:  PURGATORY.  On the official Oscar short-list for this category.

Best Debut Director:  J. C. Chandor, MARGIN CALL.  Some more well-earned attention for a very dark horse in the race.

Best Ensemble:  THE HELP  The other organization that gives this award is the critically important Screen Actors Guild (actors form the largest single group of Oscar voters), and DreamWorks/Disney will be beating this drum loudly.

Breakthrough Performances:  Felicity Jones, LIKE CRAZY; Rooney Mara, THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO  Consider these "they're here too" runner-up awards for Best Actress  The Mara award is important because it's the first indication Dragon Tattoo (a very violent genre movie, despite its pedigree) and its star could be awards contenders.

"Spotlight" Award:  Michael Fassbender.  Another runner-up award.

The New York Film Critics Circle famously (notoriously?), having decided that they simply couldn't wait to announce their 2011 awards until, y'know, they had actually seen all the movies (when Warners couldn't rush them a copy of Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close--which doesn't open until December 25--the Circle simply ignored it), has made its late-November proclamations.  After the break, the winners and some thoughts:

Best Picture:  THE ARTIST  It's Oscar time, and that means Harvey Weinstein.  The Artist, with its admirable mix of craft and movie love, has a chance of overwhelming the critical establishment, and while that's no guarantee of Oscar glory (remember The Social Network), it certainly could make for a frontrunner.  Awards like this will also help the picture be seen by a more mainstream audience, which in turn doesn't hurt with the Academy.

Best Director:  Michel Hazanavicius, THE ARTIST  Ditto.

Best Actor:  Brad Pitt, MONEYBALL and THE TREE OF LIFE  Pitt (and Jessica Chastain below) benefit from the fact that critics groups base their awards on a year's body of work rather than for a single film.  Having 2 well-regarded pictures in one calendar year is a big boost.  Also, the fact that there's no tremendous favorite in this category could give Pitt the best chance of his career thus far for a victory.  (Which would probably be for Moneyball.)

Best Actress:  Meryl Streep, THE IRON LADY This race has seemed to narrow quickly to Streep vs Michelle Williams (and possibly Viola Davis), and the first volley goes to The Great One.  Big loser here is Glenn Close, whose Albert Nobbs is currently under the radar and may stay there.

Best Supporting Actor:  Albert Brooks, DRIVE  That perfect combination of a talent that richly deserves reward for decades of superb work with a role that genuinely surprised everyone (and in which he was remarkable ).  Christopher Plummer in Beginners seems to be his main competition.

Best Supporting Actress:  Jessica Chastain, THE TREE OF LIFE, TAKE SHELTER and THE HELP  The It Girl of 2011, and this list of movies doesn't even include her excellent turns in The Debt, Texas Killing Fields or Coriolanus.  The Oscar question is whether so many fine performances will fracture her chances of actually winning.

Best Screenplay:  Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian, MONEYBALL  There aren't writers in Hollywood more A-list than these two, and in Moneyball they successfully brought to the screen a piece of source material as unpromising as anything out there.

Best Foreign-Language Film:  A SEPARATION  Sony Classics isn't opening this Iranian drama until the very end of December, but it's been making the rounds of film festivals for months.

Best Cinematography:  Emmanuel Lubezki, THE TREE OF LIFE  Even people who gave up on the movie had to bow their heads at the spectacular look of the film. 

Best Nonfiction Film:  CAVE OF FORGOTTEN DREAMS  Werner Herzog is a figure beloved by critics, and Cave was a film where his fascinations melded beautifully with the subject matter.  Also impressive as one of the first documentaries to make truly effective use of 3D.

Best First Feature:  MARGIN CALL  Yay, NYFCC!  One of the year's very best pictures--first or otherwise--gets a shout-out that will hopefully keep it alive down the awards season trail.

And the hits keep on coming for the Academy:  following Brett Ratner's hurried exit yesterday, Eddie Murphy has packed his host bag and left the building as well.  This isn't a huge surprise, as Murphy was brought in by his Tower Heist director in the first place (and Heist isn't proving to be the career-comeback smash it was originally expectd to be), but it leaves the Oscars rudderless, with about 3 months to go before the telecast--which for a show of its magnitude is less time than you'd think.

So who should take over for Murphy?  Take the safe road and return to a past host like Billy Crystal, Jon Stewart, Alec Baldwin and/or Steve Martin?  Or take a chance with someone unexpected (George Clooney?  Will Smith?  The cast of Glee?).  Since the Academy will have to choose its new producer and host in a hurry, and since last year's James Franco/Anne Hathaway experiment was widely seen as a disaster, the feeling here is to expect a choice that favors trustworthiness over excitement.

For many years, the National Board of Review has been the self-appointed first group on the calendar to announce awards for Best Picture and other categories.  The NBR is sort of like the Golden Globes without super-powers; they're 110 people tangentially related to the world of film whom you've never heard of and whose opinions would mean nothing to you if they told you their choices individually.  Their Best Picture winners have coincided with the Oscars exactly twice in the past decade:  Slumdog Millionaire and No Country For Old Men.  (Other choices have included Good Night and Good Luck, Moulin Rouge and Up In the Air).  But because their's is the first horse out of the gate, they get a couple of days of national publicity until the next group comes along.

Well, no more.  The NY Film Critics Circle, a somewhat more august group, has decided they want that heady publicity rush, and they've announced that they'll announce their winners on November 28.  (NBR won't unveil theirs until December 1--at least for now.)  All of this would amount to the most inside of baseball, except that any films wanting to be considered by NYFCC will have to screen for the critics by Thanksgiving weekend--which in practical terms means by November 23, the day before Thanksgiving.  This is a full month or more before such potential contenders as War Horse, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo and We Bought A Zoo are scheduled to open, and may require unfinished versions to be submitted for critical review. Since, unlike the NBR members, the Film Critics Circle is made up of people who are actually expected to review these films for the public, that means they could be judging pictures before they're in their final form.  Also, any films scheduled to open in the succeeding weeks who aren't blessed with the NYFCC imprimatur, possibly including Carnage, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier Spy and Young Adult, could be tarnished as "losers" before they've even been seen by audiences.

Los Angelenos will have a chance to get advance looks at some of this year's Oscar candidates at the AFI Film Festival, which begins in just about 2 weeks.  Today the Festival announced the Gala and Special Screenings, which typically make up the bulk of the high-profile titles, and they include quite a few films featured at this fall's film festivals.

The festival begins with the world premiere of Clint Eastwood's J. EDGAR, and other Galas include THE ARTIST, Polanski's CARNAGE, MY WEEK WITH MARILYN and SHAME, as well as Luc Besson's THE LADY, which premiered at Toronto.  Special Screenings include, among others, Ralph Fiennes' film of CORIOLANUS, The Duplass Brothers' JEFF WHO LIVES AT HOME, the Dardenne Brothers' THE KID WITH A BIKE, Lars Von Trier's MELANCHOLIA, and Wim Wenders' documentary PINA, as well as RAMPART, BUTTER, I MELT WITH YOU and WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN.  (The festival hasn't yet announced its closing-night presentaiton.)

Veterans of the AFI Festival's "free ticket" policy know that actually getting one of those tickets can be a chore--and sometimes the theatres are overbooked, meaning that even having a ticket is no guarantee of admission.  The Festival does, however, include a great many films worth the effort.

Check out SHOWBUZZDAILY'S STATUETTE STAKES roll of Awards contenders:

     PART I

Today we wind up SHOWBUZZDAILY's introduction of this year's most promising Oscar contenders (see Part 1 here and Part 2 here, looking at those that could be called Also Eligible--they're hoping just to get in the race.

Also Eligible

SHAME (Fox Searchlight - Dec. 2)

Good Bet: Nobody who's seen this very serious film about sexuality will forget it anytime soon.  Michael Fassbinder is art-house flavor of the month, Carey Mulligan is an awards magnet, and the NC-17 rating guarantees plenty of attention.

Bad Bet: A difficult, polarizing piece of work that may not be up the Academy's alley.

LIKE CRAZY (Paramount - Oct. 28)

Good Bet: This year's Sundance darling.  One of the very rare films to tackle the ups and downs of romance believably.

Bad Bet:  Sundance was a looooong time ago.  A lot of people hate the ending.  Perhaps because it doesn't have subtitles, some critics consider it insubstantial.

MY WEEK WITH MARILYN (Weinstein - Nov. 23)

Good Bet:  General acclaim for Michelle Williams as Monroe.  Harvey moved it from early November to super-competitive Thanksgiving weekend, so he's not lacking in confidence.

Bad Bet:  Feels like more of an acting category push than Best Picture.

THE IDES OF MARCH (Sony - Released Oct. 7)

Good Bet:  A weighty subject, strong cast, and everyone loves Clooney.

Bad Bet:  The Descendants will get the bulk of the Clooney love.  The reviews were favorable but not raves.  Although its low budget should make it profitable, the picture doesn't seem to have ignited the zeitgeist.

IN THE LAND OF BLOOD AND HONEY (FilmDistrict - Dec. 23)

Good Bet: Director Angelina Jolie guarantees huge press attention.  Subjects don't come more serious than sexual politics amid the carnage of Bosnia.

Bad Bet:  Buzz says a heavy, depressing sit with lots of script issues.  Shame may steal the season's sexuality thunder.

THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN (Paramount/DreamWorks - Dec. 21)

Good Bet:  Spielberg and Peter Jackson blazing new trails in fantasy and technology!  Initial reviews from overseas (where it opens 2 months earlier) are raves.

Bad Bet:  War Horse exists.  At least in the trailer, those damn motion capture humans still look creepy.

ANONYMOUS (Sony - Oct. 28)

Good Bet:  Shakespeare In Love was very much the Academy's cup of tea.

Bad Bet:  This one lacks the romance, the humor and the charming lead performers.  Roland Emmerich as an Oscar nominee?

WE BOUGHT A ZOO (20th Century Fox - Dec. 23)

Good Bet:  A crowd-pleaser from Cameron Crowe that could put his career back on track.  Star performances from Matt Damon, Scarlett Johansson and Thomas Haden Church.  Look, adorable animals!

Bad Bet: Buzz is that it's better than Marley & Me, but not by as much as you'd think.  You need to read the credits to realize it's a Crowe picture.

HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS (PART 2) (Warner Bros - Released July 15)

Good Bet:  The well-received final chapter of the most successful movie franchise in history.  The last Lord of the Rings bathed in Oscar glory.

Bad Bet:  The entire LOTR saga was directed by Peter Jackson, so it felt like a more unified artistic work.  Timing is no ally:  the LOTR films opened at Christmas, and their phenomenal success unfolded just as the Academy was making its choices; Hallows will be out on homevideo in a few weeks.  Warners has J. Edgar and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close on its Oscar plate.  The filmmakers will just have to be content with their billions.

Today, we return to SHOWBUZZDAILY's coverage of the Oscar race (see Part 1 here, with an introduction to those contenders best called the Field--these may not be the favorites, but even as longer shots they're still in the race.

YOUNG ADULT (Paramount - Dec. 9)

Good Bet:  From Jason Reitman, whose Up In the Air probably should have won the last time around.  Although it hasn't officially been screened, people have been seeing it, and there's enormous buzz around the script and Charlize Theron's performance in the lead.

Bad Bet:  No one defines "backlash" these days better than screenwriter Diablo Cody post-Juno.  Reitman annoyed some of the industry with the treatment of the other credited screenwriter on Air.  The film could easily be relegated to the Best Actress category alone.

THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony - Dec. 21)

Good Bet:  Sony will be citing The Silence of the Lambs endlessly on this one--a violent bestseller that won it all.  The trailer looks sensational.  After Social Network, David Fincher is owed.

Bad Bet:  Silence was 20 years ago, and the Academy doesn't normally go for hard-R violence.  Spielberg had to wait almost 20 years for his Oscar, and Scorsese's wait was roughly 30; who told Fincher he was on the express bus?

THE TREE OF LIFE (Fox Searchlight - Released May 27)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  5/1
Bookie odds to win:  14/1

Good Bet:  Terence Malick is as revered as any contemporary filmmaker, and quite a few people consider this a masterpiece.

Bad Bet:  A lot of other people it's bloated and overrated.  Malick doesn't do Oscar campaigns, and Brad Pitt will be pushing for Moneyball.  Searchlight will be spending the bulk of its efforts on The Descendants and Shame, which will be in the midst of their theatrical runs, rather than a film already on homevideo.

TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER, SPY (Focus - Dec. 9)

Good Bet:  A serious, smart thriller with a superb cast, based on one of the most acclaimed spy novels ever written.  Lots of critical acclaim when it screened in Venice.

Bad Bet:  Everyone (well, everyone in the Academy) remembers Alec Guinness in the BBC miniseries, and that's a tough comparison.  Will Oscar voters be able to follow the story?

THE IRON LADY (Weinstein - Dec. 16)

Good Bet:  Meryl Streep as Margaret Thatcher.  And enough time has gone by since her last win that she's owed, damn it.

Bad Bet:  From the director of Mamma Mia!  And why didn't Harvey Weinstein show it at any of the fall film festivals?  Harvey Watch says that he's favoring The Artist and My Week With Marilyn.

MONEYBALL (Sony - Released Sept. 23)

Good Bet:  95% approval on Rotten Tomatoes, $54M in the bank (and still counting) and all for a movie no one thought could even be made.  Brad Pitt in a career-best performance. 

Bad Bet: Comparisons to The Social Network are unfair, but... it's not The Social Network.  It'll be out of the zeitgeist by the time all the shiny new holiday season movies arrive.  Is Pitt's performance showy enough to garner awards?

CARNAGE (Sony Classics - Dec. 16)

Good Bet:  Tony Award winning play, all-star cast, Oscar-winning director.

Bad Bet:  Polanski isn't winning a second Oscar, at least not for an 81-minute filmed play.  Film festival reviews have been mixed so far.

HUGO (Paramount - Nov. 23)

Good Bet:  Scorsese.  In 3D, no less!  And so classy that the New York Film Festival showed it as a surprise work-in-progress for the first time ever.  (Shhh... pay no attention to the family movie ad campaign, it's really about film preservation.)

Bad Bet:  Scorsese or not, it's a kids movie, and opening against heavy competition over Thanksgiving (The Muppets and Arthur Christmas on the family side; The Artist, A Dangerous Method and My Week With Marilyn on the serious end).  It may get squeezed out.

A DANGEROUS METHOD (Sony Classics - Nov. 23)

Good Bet:  A supremely classy historical story (Freud and Jung), very fine actors in Michael Fassbinder, Viggo Mortensen and Keira Knightley, and David Cronenberg is the kind of director who no one ever realizes was owed an Oscar until he has one.  Sony Pictures Classics knows how to sell a picture like this better than anyone,

Bad Bet:  Film festival verdict was that it's intelligent and well-acted all right, but also dry and talky.

TOMORROW:  The Also Eligible.
 

While you weren't looking, the Oscar race began.

One could make the argument, of course, that it's been on for months--since, at least, Woody Allen's MIDNIGHT IN PARIS energized the indie/art-film audience and propelled him into mass consciousness for the first time in years.  (On the other hand, one could also argue that this year's Oscar race started roughly the moment the producers of THE KING'S SPEECH stopped saying "Thank you" last February 27.)

Certainly the Oscars have been in the air since the incredibly complicated new voting rules for Best Picture nominations were announced.  As a result of those rules, we won't know until the nominations are actually announced just how many Best Picture nominees there will be--the final number could be anywhere between 5 and 10, because (to simplify brutally) a minimum threshold has to be met for any given film beyond 5 to qualify for a nomination.

Here at SHOWBUZZDAILY we're embracing the concept of the Oscars as a horse-race.  The Academy Awards are enormous fun, but let's face it:  they have a relatively limited amount to do with quality, and a great deal to do with strategy, demographics and luck.  (Sure, in 20 years it will be clear that THE SOCIAL NETWORK should have won in 2010...  but in 20 years, it'll still be the picture that lost.)  So welcome to our coverage.  Over the next few days, we'll introduce the clear contenders, subdividing them as a racing form might.  Today:  the Chalk (those are the favorites, for the uninitiated).

The odds to win below come from actual bookmaking websites (which probably shouldn't be linked to); the odds to become one of the Best Picture nominees are ours.  (Note that there are some inconsistencies among the odds, due to biases among bookmaking patrons that include a preference for UK titles, and what some might consider undue regard for films that have already been released.)  Place your bets...

WAR HORSE (DreamWorks/Disney - Dec. 25)

Good Bet:  Steven Spielberg in his wheelhouse, a mix of sentimentality (A Boy and His Horse) and fierce,warfare (Boy Loses Horse to the trenches of WWI).  It also doesn't hurt that the film is based on the same novel as the Tony-Award winning play (although the two versions were adapted from the book independently of one another).

Bad Bet: Nobody's seen an inch of it yet... except for the trailer, which comes uncomfortably close to what a Spielberg parody mash-up might look like.  (Did John Williams compose the score in 1988?)

THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight - Nov. 18)

Good Bet:  Alexander Payne's first film since Sideways has been hailed at multiple film festivals, and features a sure-to-be-nominated lead performance from George Clooney.

Bad Bet:  It's a little bit lightweight.  Maybe too much of a comedy for the Academy's taste. 

THE HELP (DreamWorks/Disney) - Released Aug. 10)

Good Bet:  The little movie that could:  $163M in tickets sold, on a $25M budget.  A weighty subject, and an award-worthy ensemble cast.

Bad Bet:  Concerns about the film's protagonist being the Emma Stone character rather than the maids, plus a general feel among critics that it was a superficial look at an immensely complicated subject.  DreamWorks has War Horse to push--how much effort will they put into a movie that isn't directed by Spielberg and has already banked a ton of profit?

J.EDGAR (Warner Bros - Nov. 9)

Good Bet:  Mr. Eastwood.  Exactly the kind of huge, political biography the Academy loves.  DiCaprio aging with lots of prosthetic make-up and a funny voice.  Could this be his year?

Bad Bet: Nobody's seen it yet, and it opens in less than 4 weeks.  Flags of Our Fathers and Invictus suggest that historical pageants may not be Clint's thing.  The subject matter is tricky--is the movie really going to tiptoe away from the gay angle? 

THE ARTIST (Weinstein - Nov. 23)

Good Bet:  There's nothing else remotely like it:  a black-and-white, virtually silent film that has a heart to go along with its technical perfection.  Already a critical darling after its film festival screenings.  It's about movies.  And it's getting this year's main push from Mr. Harvey Weinstein.

Bad Bet:  It's unique, all right, but is it important or just odd?  Is there an audience for it beyond cineastes?  Warm-hearted slapstick comedy isn't usually the Academy's genre of choice.

MIDNIGHT IN PARIS (Sony Classics - Released May 20)

Good Bet:  The Woodman's Biggest Hit Ever.  (If you don't adjust for inflation.)  A movie everybody likes, it manages to be classy and smart and yet not ostentatious.

Bad Bet:  But let's face it, not one of Woody's very best.  The boxoffice gross may be prize enough. 

EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warner Bros - Dec. 25)

Good Bet:  There is no better definition of "Oscar Bait" than a movie about 9/11, from the director of Billy Elliot, The Hours and The Reader, based on a critically acclaimed bestseller, that stars Oscar winners Tom Hanks and Sandra Bullock--not to mention Max Von Sydow, James Gandolfini, Viola Davis, and John Goodman. It could have been assembled from a How-To-Win-An-Oscar kit.

Bad Bet: Nobody's seen it.  Critics could very well resist the neatness of the package, and without critical acclaim, its chances would be incredibly far away.

COMING TOMORROW:  THE FIELD

COMING SUNDAY:  ALSO ELIGIBLE