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Showing posts with label my week with marilyn. Show all posts
Showing posts with label my week with marilyn. Show all posts

BIJOU BOXOFFICE: Weekend Studio Scorecard



BREAKING DAWN PART 1:  Running $8M below New Moon at the parallel place in their runs, but with a slower rate of decline (at least until New Year's Eve opens next week).  New Moon earned another $41M after the post-Thanksgiving weekend to end up at $296M in the US; Breaking Dawn 1 could make another $45-50M, which would put it in the same place.


THE MUPPETS:  A disastrously bad second weekend, its 62% the worst decline of the Top 12.  It'll have one more weekend to control the family-film market before Alvin & the Chipmunks arrives, but unless international is strong (so far the film is in only 3 small markets outside the US), this isn't looking like sequel fodder.

HUGO:  So far the unorthodox strategy of starting with a mid-level number of theatres and gradually adding more as awards pour in--is working OK, with a relatively small 33% decline and a per-theatre number almost equal to Breaking Dawn 1's.  The question is how far it can be pushed as holiday movies continue to arrive, both for families and adults.  (And the bigger question is how the film's enormous production cost can ever be earned back, but that's the studio's problem.)

ARTHUR CHRISTMAS:  Word of mouth is clearly good, with a 39% fall from last weekend, but the movie just has nowhere to go--it's already in 3376 theatres and has an anemic $2200 average.  Opening in the flood of family movies over Thanksgiving doomed this one (although holding it to do battle against Alvin wouldn't have worked any better).

THE DESCENDANTS:  Playing the platform release game of increasing theatre count each week so the weekend total stays high while per-theatre shrinks.  Its $9K average in 574  is around the same average Black Swan had, but in a wider release of 959 theatres.

MY WEEK WITH MARILYN:  The Weinstein Company, as is its wont, is apparently going after other awards hopefuls with guns blazing, but they have zero to boast about:  Marilyn, with no awards help so far, has a flat $4800 average at 244 theatres (that average isn't much better than what Hugo is doing in more than 7x as many theatres, and it's far below Descendants' average in more than twice as many).

SHAME:  A good but not great $36K average in 10 theatres.

THE ARTIST:  Increased its theatres by 50% by adding 2 in San Francisco, and could only hold even with last weekend, leaving it with a $34K average in 6 that was lower than the NC-17 Shame's average in 10.

OTHER HOLDOVERSJ. EDGAR fell 52% and seems unlikely to get beyond $40M unless DiCaprio starts winning some awards.  Sony greatly expanded the runs of MONEYBALL, THE IDES OF MARCH and MIDNIGHT IN PARIS to keep them alive in awards season, and saw per-theatre numbers of $600-900.  MARGIN CALL continues to show real tenacity at the boxoffice with a mere 23% drop--it should get to $5M in US theatres, and that's on top of $2-3M in VOD revenues, very good numbers for a picture with a low budget and very little paid advertising.  LIKE CRAZY, THE SKIN I LIVE IN and MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE all seem likely to stall out at abour $3-3.5M unless they get some awards help.

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FRIDAY NOVEMBER 25 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

Based on Wednesday-Friday numbers, Twilight Breaking Dawn Part 1 will hold on to the #1 spot this weekend despite an anticipated precipitous drop, followed in second place by The Muppets.  The other kid-friendly openers, Arthur Christmas and Hugo, are fighting over table scraps.  The weekend is now looking like it will be down 11% from the same weekend last year.  2011 just continues to disappoint.


The Muppets opened with $6.5 million Wednesday and $5.8 million on Thanksgiving and the $12.275 Friday gives a better read on the traditional three day weekend: $30.5 million this Friday-Sunday weekend versus a forecast of $35.0 million. The five-day Wednesday-Sunday total should hit $43 million, and the well-reviewed (but let's face it, more niche than super mass) Muppets is headed for only $125 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate.  International numbers for all recent films will be in our overseas round-up late Sunday.       


Arthur Christmas is looking fairly soft.  With $2.4 million Wednesday and $1.8 million Thursday and $4.55 million Friday, the three-day weekend is now looking like $11.5 million weekend Friday-Sunday, compared to a $17 million prediction).  The oddly animated Christmas film is on pace for under $16 million Wednesday-Sunday and headed for $49 million total in North America.  

Martin Scorsese's Hugo is now on track for $11.0 million Friday-Sunday, ahead of the $8 million forecast.  The film opened to $1.7 million Wednesday and $2.3 million Thursday, and while its $4.5 million Friday nearly matched the Arthur Christmas number, Hugo will not enjoy the same high Saturday kid multiple that the more traditional family film will.  Hugo should collect over $15 million Wednesday-Sunday.  Hugo is headed for $48 million total domestically, and possibly much more if word of mouth takes hold. 
  
Pulling in $12.4 million Wednesday and $7.8 million Thursday and $16.9 million Friday to lead the pack all three days, Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 is now on pace for a $40.0 million Friday-Sunday, almost exactly hitting the $39.5 million forecast with a very steep 71% decline from the opening weekend (jaw-dropping by normal standards but not for the Twilight series).  The final domestic tally estimate has been adjusted to $295 million. 

On the limited release circuit, The Descendants (starring George Clooney and from director Alexander Payne) should average a very good $15,700 Friday-Sunday at 433 theaters.  My Week with Marilyn (starring Michelle Williams) should average a more normal $6,600 Friday-Sunday at 244 theaters.     

In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
  
November 25-27, 2011    Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early    FRI    Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final

Twilight Breaking 1 (Sum)[$39.5]    $40.0   $16.9     $295+

The Muppets (Dis)        [$35.0]    $30.5   $12.2     $125
Happy Feet Two (WB)      [$19.0]    $13.0   $ 5.1     $ 76- 
Arthur Christmas (Sony)  [$17.0]    $11.5   $ 4.6     $ 49 
Hugo (Par)               [$ 8.0]    $11.0   $ 4.5     $ 48
Jack and Jill (Sony)     [$ 8.5]    $10.0   $ 3.8     $ 77
Immortals (Rel)          [$ 7.7]    $ 8.8   $ 3.5     $ 87
Puss In Boots (DW/Par)   [$ 9.0]    $ 7.5   $ 2.9     $166
Tower Heist (Uni)        [$ 5.2]    $ 6.9   $ ---     $ 81
The Descendants (Fox)    [$ 4.5]    $ 6.8   $ ---     $ 34
J. Edgar (WB)            [$ 4.3]    $ 4.8   $ 2.0     $ 38


Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade. 


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a disappointing $152 million total Friday-Sunday, down 11% from the same calendar weekend last year (when Tangled open solidly and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 held much more of its opening than any Twilight film could).         

Top 12 Films: Weekend #47



     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011  $152  Muppets $30, Arthur Christmas $11.5, Hugo $11
2010  $171  Tangled $49, Burlesque $12, Love & Other Drugs $10   
2009  $175  Old Dogs $17, Ninja Assassin $13, Fantastic Mr Fox $7

2008  $155  Four Christmases $31, Australia $15 Transporter3 $12 
2007  $ 76  Awake $6
2007-10
Avg   $144 



Next Weekend
No wide release films are opening next week, kind of a hangover weekend after the doorbuster Thanksgiving weekend blowout.  Last year on the weekend after Thanksgiving, only The Warrior's Way ($3 million opening weekend) tried its luck -- the same thing as a weekend without any openers. 

Look for studio estimates for the weekend Sunday morning, as well as international results later in the day Sunday.

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THE BIJOU REVIEW: "My Week With Marilyn"



MY WEEK WITH MARILYN:  Worth A Ticket - Michelle Williams is Spectacular, Movie Is Fine

Harvey Weinstein has two movies on the way in the next couple of months featuring actresses who are presumptively in line for Oscar consideration: The Iron Lady with Meryl Streep as Margaret Thatcher, and MY WEEK WITH MARILYN, starring Michelle Williams as Marilyn Monroe.  Let's take a look at the signals Mr. Weinstein may be sending out about which movie he's favoring, based on his actions in connection with both films yesterday.  On Sunday night, Weinstein personally introduced Marilyn to the packed house at Grauman's Chinese for the AFI Film Festival, and brought Williams with him, even though she was due in Chicago at 4AM this morning for a very early call on her new Wizard of Oz movie.  He also had a Steinway grand piano schlepped to the front of the Chinese just so celebrated concert pianist Lang Lang could come in for 5 minutes (before rushing to his own LA Philharmonic concert downtown) and play the theme music from the movie for the gathered crowd.

Oh, and he postponed the opening of The Iron Lady until virtually the last possible date it's even eligible for Oscar consideration, December 30.


So the fair-haired child is clearly Williams and My Week With Marilyn (although where Best Picture is concerned, it's probably still The Artist).  And although it would be foolish to dismiss any work by Meryl Streep sight unseen, it's fair to say that she'll have her hands full trying to unseat Williams, whose work is quite dazzling, an astonishing channeling of Monroe that is without doubt one of the thrilling performances of the year.

My Week With Marilyn is based on the real-life recollections of Colin Clark (played in the film by Eddie Redmayne), an assistant director on the unexceptional 1956 comedy The Prince and the Showgirl that starred and was directed by Laurence Olivier (Kenneth Branagh).  Clark became the liaison between the production and the very difficult and troubled Monroe, and for a short time he was her confidante and perhaps more (the movie is a bit ambiguous on this score).  In the course of this time, he fell in love both with show business and with the ultimately unattainable star.

The narrative track of Marilyn is actually quite similar to the 2008 Me and Orson Welles.  In that one, Zac Efron was the young innocent learning about the theatre from a legend (Christian McKay as Welles), as well as about the vagaries of love from someone older and more experienced (Claire Danes).  Although McKay gave a superb performance, the movie went nowhere, probably because sadly the Welles name doesn't mean much to audiences anymore.  Marilyn Monroe, though, has retained her cultural fascination (not to mention that she looked a lot better than Welles in a tight dress), and with Williams' remarkable performance, Marilyn has a much better chance of breaking through.  

Screenwriter Adrian Hodges and director Simon Curtis both come out of British TV, and their work is professional and compelling without being exciting:  along his way, young Colin meets his share of colorful movie people like Judi Dench as Sybil Thorndike (to much better advantage than as Hoover's mother in J. Edgar), Dominic Cooper as Monroe's producer Milton Greene, Toby Jones as her publicist Arthur Jacobs (he would go on to produce the original Planet of the Apes movies, among others), Julia Ormond as Olivier's then-wife Vivien Leigh, Zoe Wanamaker as Monroe's acting coach Paula Strasberg, and so on.  He's forced into high-pressure situations and has to prove himself.  There's a "nice girl" (Emma Watson, in her first substantial non-Hermoine role) for him to like but abandon for the sake of Marilyn.  Colin is dazzled, and then hurt, and finally stronger for the experience.  All of this is pretty much a by-the-book coming of age tale.

The movie's portrayal of Monroe, too, doesn't have any particular surprises.  She's insecure, voraciously needy, in love with her then-new husband Arthur Miller (Dougray Scott) and even more with the high culture he represents (this was the time when she was thinking of appearing in "The Brothers Karamazov" on Broadway), but not loyal to him.  (Nor is he to her, in the way that counts--he's writing cruel "fiction" based on her.)   She's untrained and essentially unskilled as an actress, but the camera ravishes and is ravished by her.  One of the sharpest lines of the script notes that she hoped working with Olivier would turn her from a movie star into a real actress, and Olivier hoped working with her would change him from a great actor into a star, and neither was likely to happen.  (They didn't; The Prince and the Showgirl was a flop.)

All of this is familiar Monroeiana, but it's never been captured with such conviction and complexity as Williams conveys in her portrayal.  She doesn't do an imitation; her breathy voice and mannerisms suggest, rather than duplicate, Monroe.  (Although the recreations of actual scenes from Prince and the Showgirl are unerring.)   It's so easy to overdo Monroe, but Williams never falls into that trap --one of the movie's best moments has her asking if she should do "Marilyn" for a gathered crowd and then launching into her own trademark gestures--and instead suggests the troubled, increasingly desperate mind behind the eyes of the icon.

Williams' performance is the real thing, and if the movie that surrounds her doesn't quite rise to her level, it's still a pleasure to watch.  The pace is brisk at 99 minutes, the hair, costume and make-up staffs have done an marvelous job of turning Williams into Marilyn Monroe, and other technical credits are first-rate as well (it's a particularly nice touch to see how Ben Smithard's cinematography changes to match the actual 1950s color look of The Prince and the Showgirl in scenes from the film-within-the-film).  

My Weekend With Marilyn may only be a vehicle, but what a driver!  It's an entertaining, reasonably intelligent and well-crafted film that preserves one of the year's jewel performances at its center.

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