Movie Box Review

Terra Nova managed to do what almost no new show can pull off -- a week two rating equal to the premiere.  Looking at the entire night, CBS continues to own Monday, while FOX is in the game now and ABC has totally blown its lead.  NBC remains a non-factor on Monday. 

FOX is breathing a big sigh of relief as Terra Nova (3.0 Adult 18-49 rating) matches last week's premiere number, a rare achievement.  Last week Terra Nova was a 3.0 in the fast nationals and a 3.1 in the official nationals.  House returned to the schedule with a very nice build off of the pre-historic family drama (a 3.9 rating which will probably go up to a 4.0 in the official nationals this afternoon).  For the night, FOX was #2 with a 3.5 rating.  On this same night last year (10.4.2010), FOX was # 3 with a 3.1 rating for the night: House (4.0) and Lie to Me (2.1). 



CBS continued its winning ways on Mondays, averaging a 4.3 on the night (down from a 4.6 last week).  Two and a Half Men scored a 6.1 (down from 7.2 last week but still stellar), while Mike & Molly cooled a bit to a 4.3 (hard to believe that makes it the lowest-rated comedy in the powerful block).  How I Met Your Mother (4.5) and Two Broke Girls (4.4) were very close to last week's numbers, as was Hawaii Five-O (3.2).  On this night last year, CBS was a strong #2 with a 3.7 rating: How I Met Your Mother (3.5), Rules of Engagement (3.0), Two and a Half Men (4.5), Mike & Molly (3.9) and Hawaii Five-O (3.5). 

NBC is stuck in a very distant fourth place with a 1.6 rating for the night.  The Sing-Off was able to increase 0.1 from last week, but The Playboy Club gave that gain back and declined 0.1 from last week to a 1.2 rating at 10 pm.  On the third Monday of last season, NBC was also #4 with an already soft 2.0 rating:  Chuck (1.9), The Event (2.4) and Chase (1.7). 

ABC suffered another weekly decline in Dancing with the Stars (now a 3.1 -- it started at a 4.0 premiere week), and Castle is now down to a 2.6 (equal to what it did last year with a much higher lead-in).  For the night ABC averaged a third-place 2.9 rating.  This night last year, ABC won the night with a 3.8 rating: the 8-9 pm hour of Dancing with the Stars (4.2), the 9-10 pm hour of Dancing (4.4) and Castle (2.6). 

THE CW Monday line-up is stable week to week.  That's the good news.  The bad news is that both Gossip Girl and Hart of Dixie sit well under a 1 rating.

Season to date ratings will be updated mid-week.


MONDAY FALL 2011    ShowBuzz         Episode Rating      
                    Estimate    #1   #2   #3   #4   #5   #6   Avg
ABC
 800 Dancing           3.9      4.0  3.3  3.1                 3.5
1000 Castle            2.6      3.2  3.1  2.6                 3.0
CBS
 800 How I Met         3.3      4.9  4.5  4.5                 4.6
 830 2 Broke Girls     3.2      7.1  4.6  4.4                 4.5
 900 2.5 Men           4.2      10.7 7.4  6.1                 8.1
 930 Mike & Molly      3.6      4.8  4.3                      4.6
1000 Hawaii Five-O     2.7      3.4  3.3  3.2                 3.3
NBC
 800 The Sing-Off      2.4      1.9  1.7  1.8                 1.8
1000 Playboy Club      2.1      1.6  1.3  1.2                 1.4
FOX
 800 Terra Nova        2.5      3.1  3.0                      3.1
 900 House             3.3      3.9                           3.9
CW
 800 Gossip Girl       n/a      0.7  0.7                      0.7
 900 Hart of Dixie     n/a      0.8  0.8                      0.8

An important note:  the ratings estimates are for original episodes across the entire Fall (from mid-September through mid-December).  Generally, a series will premiere at a high level and then settle into a more normal number by week four-six.  The important number to look at as the season unfolds is the average-to-date column at the far right.  By the time episode four rolls around, look at the average of episodes one-four and you should have a pretty good idea how the fall -- and the entire season -- will sort out.

Two and a Half Men premiered with a 10.3 Adult 18-49 rating, about equal to a good Sunday Night Football game but not at the level of an AFC Championship game, as CBS head Les Moonves boldly predicted.  Nonetheless, this is a great number to welcome Ashton Kutcher to the show.  Can the show maintain this level for the season?  Of course, not.  We estimate Two and a Half Men will settle into a high-5 rating next week and a high-4 in subsequent weeks, still well above our projected rating for the quarter. 

The news is not good for NBC.  Both The Sing-Off and Playboy Club were under a 2 rating and below our meager forecast for the entire quarter.  The Sing-Off was a moderate success in December (against mostly repeat competition), but it just couldn't stand up to real competition of season premieres.  And Playboy Club looks DOA, a 1.6 demo rating and only 5 million viewers 2+ (Castle attracted over 13 million viewers on ABC in the time period and Hawaii Five-O had 12 million).  In all probability, the NBC numbers will remain the same in coming weeks or drift down slightly.



2 Broke Girls is off to a terrific start with a 7 demo rating.  It should go down a high-3 rating next week in its normal 8:30 time period, but a low-4 rating is not impossible.On ABC, Dancing with the Stars opened about where we expected, while Castle continue to impress (only one-tenth of a rating point behind time period leader Hawaii Five-O).  ABC's patience with Castle is admirable, and the show has slowly and increasingly taken good advantage of its Dancing lead-in.

MONDAY FALL 2011    Estimates         Episode Rating      
                    May   Sep   #1   #2   #3   #4   #5   #6   Avg
ABC
 800 Dancing        3.7   3.6   3.9
 900 Dancing        4.4   4.2   3.9
1000 Castle         2.6   2.6   3.3
CBS
 800 How I Met      3.3   3.3   4.9
 830 2 Broke Girls  3.0   3.2   7.0 (special 9:30 time)
 900 2.5 Men        4.1   4.2   10.3
 930 Mike & Molly   3.4   3.6   9/26
1000 Hawaii Five-O  2.7   2.7   3.4
NBC
 800 The Sing-Off   2.2   2.3   1.9
 900 The Sing-Off   2.4   2.5   1.8
1000 Playboy Club   2.1   2.1   1.6
FOX
 800 Terra Nova     2.7   2.5   9/26
 900 House          3.4   3.3   10/3
CW
 800 Gossip Girl    n/a   n/a   9/26
 900 Hart of Dixie  n/a   n/a   9/26

An important note:  the ratings estimates are for original episodes across the entire Fall (from mid-September through mid-December).  Generally, a series will premiere at a high level and then settle into a more normal number by week four-six.  The important number to look at as the season unfolds is the average-to-date column at the far right.  By the time episode four rolls around, look at the average of episodes one-four and you should have a pretty good idea how the fall -- and the entire season -- will sort out.