A few notes: these projections are for original episodes (no repeats) aired in the 4th quarter of 2011. Series premieres will likely be .3-.4 higher, thanks to network marketing pushes, and then tend to go down over time. We'll be updating the numbers after we see full pilots and also as we get a feel for the networks' summer promotional campaigns.
NBC's NFL Sunday Night Football still dominates the night, but if there are no games and NBC has to air game shows, its night will collapse. Weeks without football would bring NBC's nightly rating from almost a 6 to a very low 1 or below.
Once Upon A Time should flop, with a rating behind last year's Extreme Makover: Home Edition despite much higher production cost and network license fee. In contrast, Pan Am does relatively well, about on par with where Brothers & Sisters would be (given the deterioration of Desperate Housewives). Overall, ABC should be down on the night.
Good Wife should be far behind where Undercover Boss was in Fall 2010, when that reality program still was potent.
Finally, on FOX we see Allen Gregory not holding The Simpsons audience as well as Cleveland Show did.
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