THE SKED'S PILOT + 1 REVIEW: "The Playboy Club"
THE SKED PILOT REPORT: ABC's "Pan Am" - PREMIERING TONIGHT
THE SKED: MONDAY Ratings September 19
Two and a Half Men premiered with a 10.3 Adult 18-49 rating, about equal to a good Sunday Night Football game but not at the level of an AFC Championship game, as CBS head Les Moonves boldly predicted. Nonetheless, this is a great number to welcome Ashton Kutcher to the show. Can the show maintain this level for the season? Of course, not. We estimate Two and a Half Men will settle into a high-5 rating next week and a high-4 in subsequent weeks, still well above our projected rating for the quarter.
The news is not good for NBC. Both The Sing-Off and Playboy Club were under a 2 rating and below our meager forecast for the entire quarter. The Sing-Off was a moderate success in December (against mostly repeat competition), but it just couldn't stand up to real competition of season premieres. And Playboy Club looks DOA, a 1.6 demo rating and only 5 million viewers 2+ (Castle attracted over 13 million viewers on ABC in the time period and Hawaii Five-O had 12 million). In all probability, the NBC numbers will remain the same in coming weeks or drift down slightly.
2 Broke Girls is off to a terrific start with a 7 demo rating. It should go down a high-3 rating next week in its normal 8:30 time period, but a low-4 rating is not impossible.On ABC, Dancing with the Stars opened about where we expected, while Castle continue to impress (only one-tenth of a rating point behind time period leader Hawaii Five-O). ABC's patience with Castle is admirable, and the show has slowly and increasingly taken good advantage of its Dancing lead-in.
MONDAY FALL 2011 Estimates Episode Rating
May Sep #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Avg
ABC
800 Dancing 3.7 3.6 3.9
900 Dancing 4.4 4.2 3.9
1000 Castle 2.6 2.6 3.3
CBS
800 How I Met 3.3 3.3 4.9
830 2 Broke Girls 3.0 3.2 7.0 (special 9:30 time)
900 2.5 Men 4.1 4.2 10.3
930 Mike & Molly 3.4 3.6 9/26
1000 Hawaii Five-O 2.7 2.7 3.4
NBC
800 The Sing-Off 2.2 2.3 1.9
900 The Sing-Off 2.4 2.5 1.8
1000 Playboy Club 2.1 2.1 1.6
FOX
800 Terra Nova 2.7 2.5 9/26
900 House 3.4 3.3 10/3
CW
800 Gossip Girl n/a n/a 9/26
900 Hart of Dixie n/a n/a 9/26
An important note: the ratings estimates are for original episodes across the entire Fall (from mid-September through mid-December). Generally, a series will premiere at a high level and then settle into a more normal number by week four-six. The important number to look at as the season unfolds is the average-to-date column at the far right. By the time episode four rolls around, look at the average of episodes one-four and you should have a pretty good idea how the fall -- and the entire season -- will sort out.
THE SKED: Broadcast Network On-Air Promotion July 20
Last night we had our first look at CBS's current promotional priorities in the one-hour Big Brother at 8:00 pm. With a fairly light on-air promo load, dramas got the lion's share of time: Unforgettable (one :30 spot) and Person of Interest (one :20). 2 Broke Girls was given one :10. The rest of the time went to the new summer show Same Name (one :20 and one :10), a series in which a celebrity and average person with the same name swap lives and learn important lessons. And there were two :15 promos with Julie Chen reminding us that we can get a live feed from the Big Brother bubble 24/7 on CBS.com, one of the most triumphant uses of the Internet to date.
THE SKED: Broadcast Network On-Air Promotion
Last night in the hit summer shows (NBC's America's Got Talent and FOX's Hell's Kitchen), we took a look at the priorities for new fall series promotion. The big winners on NBC were the comedies Whitney and Up All Night. Each comedy received one minute of on-air promotion across the two-hour telecast (one :30 spot and two :15s for each). In stark contrast, the Hank Azaria comedy Free Agents received only one spot and it was a :05 spot at that -- yes, five seconds. NBC Marketing will be able to say the show was given a prime position in the network's best summer show (at 10:48, when ratings peak for the program), but five seconds is barely enough time to mention the show's title and star. This is not a very big vote of confidence. Either they have given up on Free Agents or they are planning a huge campaign in August. Yeah, right.
The other new shows on NBC that got some attention were Prime Suspect (:45 total; one :30 and one :15) and Playboy Club (one :30 spot). A few other programs were hit in America's Got Talent: a generic Today show spot, a couple of hits for the new summer show It's Worth What?, and a late night spot featuring that night's guests for Leno and Fallon. All of this time could theoretically be better spent on the all-important new-show launches, but this is the kind of housekeeping a network must do.
Over at FOX in Hell's Kitchen, only three spots were made available to new shows. A :30 spot for New Girl with the theme "See Jess..." (See Jess after Glee, See Jess Be Funny, etc.) Terra Nova received a :15, and a full 45 seconds were devoted to a "So Fox" network spot about the new fall line-up (So Daring, So Thrilling, So Funny, etc.). Interestingly FOX did not insert network promotion at the beginning and end of local breaks, leaving a very light format for promo time. The rest of the available time was given to a :30 for American Idol auditions, a Glee live show tour promo, and some "this-week" spots for summer shows. We'll keep an eye on FOX to see if their promo time in the cooking shows increases in the coming weeks. (Last night simply could have had more non-promo commercials than normal because they needed to "make good" advertisers who experienced ratings shortfalls earlier in the summer.)
THE SKED'S TV NEWS AND NOTES: Salt Lake City Tries To Shut Down NBC's "Playboy Club"
It's no big surprise that NBC's station in Salt Lake City (KSL, which is owned by the Mormon church) will not carry Playboy Club this fall. Similarly, this station does not clear Saturday Night Live (either in the regular Saturday late night time period or in the occasional prime time specials time periods). But fear not, just as SNL is aired "across the street" by an independent broadcast station in the SLC market, we are sure Playboy Club will follow the same pattern. Look for other small Southern markets to follow the lead of KSL (markets like Tuscaloosa, Alabama, for example). The NBC Affiliate Relations team will also probably find other stations in these markets to air the drama.





