Moral of the weekend: If you're going to spend $250M+ on a movie, check first whether anyone wants to see it.OPENINGS: With a probable $27-28M opening, just how big a flop is JOHN CARTER (Disney) going to be? Hard to tell until full weekend and international numbers are in. But its sheer cost--probably at least $400M when worldwide marketing is included, and very possibly $500M--dwarfs such famous flops of the past as Ishtar and Heaven's Gate, both made in the 1980s when marketing costs were a fraction of what they are now, and even last year's huge bomb Mars Needs Moms, which cost around $100M less. The movie is mediocre; the decision to green-light it at that budget was insane.
At a far lesser level of failure (financially, at least), SILENT HOUSE (Open Road) is headed for a $6-7M weekend and probably won't crack $20M in total (especially with an ugly "F" from CinemaScore), but with a tiny budget and limited marketing, it won't cause anyone much damage. A THOUSAND WORDS (Paramount/DreamWorks) is only hitting theatres after 3 years because Paramount would have had accounting consequences had it been held off the market any longer. It's heading for a similar total to Silent House at a much higher cost. The amazing factoid is that if it can manage to scrape together a weekend above $5.5M, it'll still be higher than 2 of Eddie Murphy's last 5 openings, beating both Meet Dave and Imagine That. And this: with the exception of the Shrek movies and Dreamgirls, Murphy's last $100M grosser was Dr. Dolittle 2 in 2001.
HOLDOVERS: With no direct competition, THE LORAX (Universal) is having a strong 2d weekend, down only 40-45% from its giant opening (and easily winning the weekend). More surprisingly, PROJECT X (Warners) is holding up fine, with a similar percentage drop. SAFE HOUSE (Universal), THE VOW (Screen Gems. /Sony) and THIS MEANS WAR (20th) continue to hold up best, with drops of only around 30%, while GOOD DEEDS (Lionsgate/Summit), WANDERLUST (Universal) and GONE (Summit/Lionsgate) are collapsing as they get dumped by theatres.
OSCAR WINNERS: THE ARTIST (Weinstein)'s post-Oscar bump didn't last long, as word-of-mouth and a wide audience continue to elude the film (permanently, we can now say). A 40% weekend drop puts it in line for around $45M in total. THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight), in its final pre-homevideo weekend, and HUGO (Paramount), already available at home, face similar declines. THE IRON LADY (Weinstein), though, is holding on well with only a 25% fall.
LIMITED RELEASE: FRIENDS WITH KIDS (Roadside Attractions) is trying a quasi-limited opening at 374 theatres, with fairly decent results for that kind of release, probably close to a $5K average per theatre that should give it around a $2M start. On a much smaller scale, SALMON FISHING IN THE YEMEN (CBS) should have an OK average of around $10K in only 18 big-city theatres. The Israeli FOOTNOTE (Sony Classics), with rave reviews, is headed for a very nice $20K average in 2 NY theatres. BEING FLYNN (Focus) tripled its theatre count to 12, and will be lucky to hold even for the weekend, as its per-theatre average plummeted.
NEXT WEEKEND: The big arrival is the Channing Tatum/Jonah Hill comedy revamp of 21 JUMP STREET (Sony), which is garnering remarkably strong early reviews. 2 more offbeat comedies will open in smaller releases; JEFF WHO LIVES AT HOME (Paramount Vantage) and Will Ferrell's Spanish-language CASA DE MI PADRE (Lionsgate).
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