RSS
Showing posts with label Numbers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Numbers. Show all posts

FULL WEEK BOX OFFICE ACTUALS and YEAR TO DATE October 24-30

6:30 PM | Labels: , , , , , ,

The year to date box office tally picked up a tiny bit of ground moving from -3.8% versus last year to -3.7% this week.       


The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between October 24 and October 30 grossed a mediocre $123 million, up 4% versus the same week in 2010 but down 2% from the average comparable week the past four years.  Year to date, all films are now down 3.7% from the same period last year.    

All Films October 24-30
(millions)           4yr              vs      vs
             2010    Avg     2011    2010    Avg

Week #43     $119    $126    $123    + 4%    - 2%

Year to Date $8331   $7883   $8017   -3.7%   +1.6%



Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks.  Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings. 


Puss in Boots $129 million (85 percentile)
Paranormal Activity 3 $117 million (83 percentile)
Real Steel $87 million (73 percentile) 
Moneyball $76 million (69 percentile)
Dolphin Tale $71 million (67 percentile)
Footloose $55 million (58 percentile) 
The Ides of March $42 million (48 percentile)
50/50 $36 million (43 percentile)
Courageous $31 million (34 percentile)
Abduction $28 million (31 percentile)
Killer Elite $25 million (27 percentile)
Dream House $20 million (20 percentile)
The Three Musketeers $20 million (20 percentile)
The Thing $15 million (14 percentile)
What's Your Number? $15 million (13 percentile)
Johnny English Reborn $8 million (4 percentile)

Weekend Actuals vs Sunday's Studio Projections 


The weekend Studio Projections (Friday and Saturday actual numbers with estimates for Sunday's box office) for just about every film ended up being close to the actual numbers reported today.  Puss in Boots and In Time were each about $100,000 higher today than the Studio Estimate.  Paranormal Activity 3 had the biggest error, coming in $400,000 lower than the Studio Estimate on Sunday.   

 
      Weekend of                 Sunday    Monday   Showbuzz
      October 24-30              Studio    Weekend  Domestic
      (millions)                Estimate   Actual    Total

Puss in Boots          (DW/Par)   $34.0    $34.1     $129
Paranormal Activity 3     (Par)   $18.5    $18.1     $117
In Time                   (Fox)   $12.0    $12.1     $ 28
Footloose                 (Par)   $ 5.4    $ 5.5     $ 55
The Rum Diary         (FilmDis)   $ 5.0    $ 5.1     $ 20
Real Steel                (Dis)   $ 4.7    $ 4.8     $ 87-
The Three Musketeers   (Summit)   $ 3.5    $ 3.5     $ 20 
Ides of March            (Sony)   $ 2.7    $ 2.8     $ 42 
Moneyball                (Sony)   $ 2.4    $ 2.4     $ 76
Dolphin Tale               (WB)   $ 1.6    $ 1.6     $ 71


The International Box Office Numbers chart will be updated later tonight or Tuesday.

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS
Read User's Comments(0)
Posted by Unknown

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES October 28-30

9:14 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , ,

Why did it snow on my weekend?
Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), Puss in Boots looks like a $34 million opening weekend.  The highly unusual late-October snowstorm in the northeast certainly reduced the opening numbers for Puss, but the weather also seemed to have a strong impact on the holdovers.  After weeks of seeing weekend declines in the 30-45% range, the fall-offs were consistently in the 45-60+% range.  Still, the weekend volume of $93 million managed to beat last year's number by 10%, when Saw 3D was the lone opener.      

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the openers are headed for: Puss in Boots ($129 million), In Time ($28 million) and The Rum Diary ($19 million). 
 
Paranormal Activity 3 has been upgraded slightly to $119 million, while The Three Musketeers is holding at $20 million and Johnny English Reborn at $8 million. 

Footloose has been adjusted back down to $54 million, while Real Steel has been dialed back down to $87 million. 

Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, Puss in Boots will average $8,600 per theater (an above average but not noteworthy mark) at 3,952 theaters (for $34.0 million from Friday-Sunday). In Time is opening with a very weak $3,800 per theater at 3,122 theaters ($12 million).  The Rum Diary will average a very bad $2,200 per theater at 2,272 theaters ($5 million weekend).    





October 28-30, 2011                 Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 
Puss in Boots          (DW/Par)     $34.0             $129
Paranormal Activity 3     (Par)     $18.5   -65%      $119+
In Time                   (Fox)     $12.0             $ 28
Footloose                 (Par)     $ 5.4   -48%      $ 54-
The Rum Diary         (FilmDis)     $ 5.0             $ 19
Real Steel             (DW/Dis)     $ 4.7   -57%      $ 87-
The Three Musketeers   (Summit)     $ 3.5   -60%      $ 20 
Ides of March            (Sony)     $ 2.7   -44%      $ 41
Moneyball                (Sony)     $ 2.4   -40%      $ 76
Dolphin Tale               (WB)     $ 1.6   -62%      $ 71
 

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  



Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are now looking like a good $93 million total, up 10% from the same calendar weekend last year (when Saw 3D opened).         

Top 12 Films: Weekend #43

     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011  $ 94  Puss in Boots $34, In Time $12, Rum Diary $5
2010  $ 85  Saw 3D $22.5    
2009  $ 83  Michael Jackson's This Is It $23
2008  $ 74  Zach and Miri Make a Porno $10, Changeling $9
2007  $122  American Gangster $44, Bee Movie $38
2007-10
Avg   $ 91 



Next Weekend
Opening next week are Tower Heist from Universal and A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas from Warner Brothers/ New Line.  Those movies will be compared to Megamind ($46.0 million opening weekend), Due Date ($32.7 million) and For Colored Girls ($19.5 million).

International numbers will be posted as soon as possible, and Monday we will have official numbers for the Friday-Sunday domestic grosses.

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS
Read User's Comments(0)
Posted by Unknown

FRIDAY OCTOBER 28 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

9:30 AM | Labels: , , , , ,

DreamWorks' Puss In Boots is opening at a solid #1 but below its forecast.  Paranormal Activity 3 is sporting a 65% decline in its second weekend (just under $20 million for the weekend), but it has nonetheless been upgraded to a $119 million final domestic estimate thanks to solid midweek business.  In Time and The Rum Diary opened quietly, and the weekend as a whole is headed for $94 million, not as vigorous as expected but still up 11% over the same weekend last year.

Puss In Boots missed its forecast ($9.6 million Friday for an expected $35.3 million this weekend versus a forecast of $42.5 million). The Shrek sequel featuring the voice of Antonio Banderas is headed for $132 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate.  International numbers for all recent films will be in our overseas round-up late Sunday.  Critics have been supportive (80% positive at RottenTomatoes).     


In Time came very close to its forecast ($4.2 million Friday for an estimated $11.8 million opening weekend, compared to a $13 million prediction).  The Justin Timberlake sci-fi thriller is headed for $28 million in North America.  Critics nationwide have been quite negative (only 37% positive at RottenTomatoes). 

     
The Rum Diary is missing its low forecast ($1.8 million Friday for an estimated $5.6 million opening weekend, compared to an $8 million prediction).  The Johnny Depp film is on track for $21 million in North America.  Critics nationwide are mixed (50% positive at RottenTomatoes). 

In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
  
October 28-30, 2011     Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early   Friday  Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final*
Puss In Boots (DW/Par)   [$42.5]    $35.3   $ 9.6     $132
Paranormal Activity 3 Par[$21.1]    $18.6   $ 6.5     $119+
In Time (Fox)            [$13.0]    $11.8   $ 4.2     $ 28
The Rum Diary (FilmDis)  [$ 8.0]    $ 5.6   $ 1.8     $ 21
 Footloose (Par)          [$ 6.5]    $ 5.3   $ 1.8     $ 54 
Real Steel (DW/DIS)      [$ 6.5]    $ 4.8   $ 1.4     $ 87-
Three Musketeers (Summit)[$ 4.6]    $ 3.3   $ 1.0     $ 19
Ides of March (Sony)     [$ 3.3]    $ 2.5   $ 0.8     $ 41 
Moneyball (Sony)         [$ 2.9]    $ 1.9   $ 0.6     $ 74 
Dolphin Tale (WB)        [$ 2.5]    $ 1.5   $ 0.5     $ 71-

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade. 


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a good $94 million total, up 11% from the same calendar weekend last year (when Saw 3D opened).         

Top 12 Films: Weekend #43

     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011  $ 94  Puss In Boots $35, In Time $12, Rum Diary $5.6
2010  $ 85  Saw 3D $22.5    
2009  $ 83  Michael Jackson's This Is It $23
2008  $ 74  Zach and Miri Make a Porno $10, Changeling $9
2007  $122  American Gangster $44, Bee Movie $38
2007-10
Avg   $ 91 



Next Weekend
Opening next week are Tower Heist from Universal and A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas from Warner Brothers/ New Line.  Those movies will be compared to Megamind ($46.0 million opening weekend), Due Date ($32.7 million) and For Colored Girls ($19.5 million). 

Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS
Read User's Comments(0)
Posted by Unknown

FULL WEEK BOX OFFICE ACTUALS & YEAR TO DATE October 10-16

1:41 PM | Labels: , , , , ,

The past week (seven days ending Sunday) is up 5% versus last year's comparable week.  Year-to-date box office is now down 3.2% versus last year, the smallest year-to-year margin we've seen so far this year.       


The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between October 10 and October 16 grossed an awful $116 million, down 5% versus the same week in 2010 but down the same amount from the average comparable week the past four years.  Year to date, all films are now down 3.6% from the same period last year.  (Last week the margin was -3.2%.)  

All Films October 10-16
(millions)           4yr              vs      vs
             2010    Avg     2011    2010    Avg

Week #41     $154    $155    $116    -25%    -25%

Year to Date $8171   $7737   $7878   -3.6%   +1.8%





Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks.  Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings. 


The Lion King in 3D ($102 million, 79th percentile)
Real Steel ($94 million, 75th percentile)
Contagion ($79 million, 71st percentile)
Dolphin Tale ($75 million, 69th percentile)
Moneyball ($72 million, 68th percentile)
Footloose ($51 million, 56th percentile)
The Ides of March ($43 million, 50th percentile)
Drive ($35 million, 42nd percentile)
50/50 ($37 million, 44th percentile)
Courageous ($26 million, 30th percentile)
Abduction ($26 million, 30th percentile)
Killer Elite ($25 million, 27th percentile)
Dream House ($20 million, 21st percentile)
The Thing ($18 million, 18th percentile)
Warrior ($14 million, 11th percentile)
What's Your Number? ($16 million, 16th percentile)
The Big Year ($7 million, 3rd percentile)

Weekend Actuals vs Sunday's Studio Projections 


The weekend Studio Projections (Friday and Saturday actual numbers with estimates for Sunday's box office) for Real Steel was dead on, but the Footloose projection was very high compared to the actual numbers available today.  Turns out the race for #1 was not that close after all.       

 
      Weekend of                 Sunday    Monday   Showbuzz
      October 10-16              Studio    Weekend  Domestic
      (millions)                Estimate   Actual    Total

Real Steel                (Dis)   $16.3    $16.3     $ 94+
Footloose                 (Par)   $16.1    $15.6     $ 51
The Thing                 (Uni)   $ 8.7    $ 8.5     $ 18
Ides of March            (Sony)   $ 7.5    $ 7.1     $ 43+
Dolphin Tale               (WB)   $ 6.3    $ 6.2     $ 75
Moneyball                (Sony)   $ 5.5    $ 5.5     $ 72
50/50                  (Summit)   $ 4.3    $ 4.3     $ 37
Courageous               (Sony)   $ 3.4    $ 3.3     $ 26
The Big Year              (Fox)   $ 3.3    $ 3.2     $  7
The Lion King in 3D       (Dis)   $ 2.7    $ 2.8     $102
Dream House               (Uni)   $ 2.5    $ 2.5     $ 20

Read the International Box Office Numbers round-up if you haven't seen it already.

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS
Read User's Comments(0)
Posted by Unknown

INTERNATIONAL BOX OFFICE NUMBERS October 16

5:12 PM | Labels: , , , , ,

The Smurfs movie continues to inch closer to Cars 2 in worldwide box office (now $9 million away). 

Real Steel is the only recent movie with any overseas box office pull.  Its overseas to date tally of $57 million has moved up to 31st place on the worldwide chart and has upside to around 21st place (near Battle: Los Angeles and its $211 million worldwide total).  Click "read more" to see the updated chart, now showing the top 35 films of the year.



  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS
Read User's Comments(0)
Posted by Unknown

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES October 14-16

8:52 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , ,

Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), we have a photo finish for #1, with Real Steel in its second weekend probably edging opener Footloose.  As for the other openers, The Thing opened weakly, and The Big Year was a complete bomb.  After weeks of progress versus last year's box office, this weekend crashed 34% versus the same weekend last year, when Jackass 3-D opened with $50 million.       

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the openers are headed for: Footloose ($52 million), The Thing ($18 million) and The Big Year ($7 million). 

Real Steel has been upgraded to $94 million, as has The Ides of March to $44 million. 

Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, Footloose will average $4,500 per theater (a slightly below average mark) at 3,549 theaters (for $16.1 million from Friday-Sunday). The Thing will open with a very weak $2,900 per theater at 2,996 theaters ($8.7 million).  An epic fail, The Big Year will average a hideous $1,500 per theater at 2,150 theaters ($3.3 million weekend).    


The second week decline for Real Steel (-40%) was fairly solid and enough to keep it (barely) in first place -- but much more important provided an upgrade in its ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final Gross.        


October 14-16, 2011                 Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 
Real Steel             (DW/Dis)     $16.3   -40%      $ 94+
Footloose                 (Par)     $16.1             $ 52
The Thing                 (Uni)     $ 8.7             $ 18
Ides of March            (Sony)     $ 7.5   -28%      $ 44
Dolphin Tale               (WB)     $ 6.3   -31%      $ 75
Moneyball                (Sony)     $ 5.5   -26%      $ 72
50/50                  (Summit)     $ 4.3   -24%      $ 37
Courageous               (Sony)     $ 3.4   -30%      $ 24
The Big Year              (Fox)     $ 3.3             $  7
The Lion King in 3D       (Dis)     $ 2.7   -41%      $102
Dream House               (Uni)     $ 2.5   -44%      $ 20

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  

Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a really bad $79 million total, down an incredible 34% from the same calendar weekend last year (when Jackass 3-D and Red opened) and down 23% from the average number for the same weekend the last four years.  Since 2009, this weekend had been turning into a pretty good launching pad, but all that progress was squandered with sub-par to terrible movies.     

Top 12 Films: Weekend #41


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011  $ 79  Footloose $16, The Thing $9, The Big Year $3
2010  $120  Jackass 3-D $50, Red $22    
2009  $128  Where Wild Things Are $33, Paranormal Activity $20,
              Law Abiding Citizen $21, The Stepfather $12
2008  $ 85  Max Payne $18, W $10.5, Secret Life Bees $10.5
2007  $ 79  30 Days of Night $16, Gone Baby Gone $5.6
2007-10
Avg   $103  



Next Weekend

Opening next week are Paranormal Activity 3 from Paramount, The Three Musketeers from Summit, Johnny English Reborn from Universal (action comedy starring Rowan Atkinson) and The Mighty Macs from Freestyle (sports drama starring David Boreanaz and Carla Gugino).  Those movies will be compared to Paranormal Activity 2 ($40.7 million opening weekend) and Hereafter ($12.0 million). 

International numbers will be posted as soon as possible, and Monday we will have official numbers for the Friday-Sunday domestic grosses.

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • RSS
Read User's Comments(0)
Posted by Unknown
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)