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Showing posts with label help. Show all posts
Showing posts with label help. Show all posts

COUNTING TO 10: The Globes - Movies

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Even though the Oscar race has had clear favorites in THE DESCENDANTS, THE ARTIST and THE HELP since last fall, the first 2 haven't sparked any huge enthusiasm among the general public, where after almost 2 months, Descendants has yet to gross $50M, and Artist, which Harvey Weinstein hasn't dared put into general release, hasn't even made $9M.  And The Help is still battling against its so-so critical reception.  So despite the fact that we all know the Golden Globes shouldn't mean anything, being the choices of around 85 obscure international writers whose opinions, for 364 days of the year, are of no interest to anyone, we've nevertheless looked to the Globes to provide some clarity.  

That being the case, what did we learn tonight?

10.  Ben Kingsley Has A Very Affectionate Wife.  When NBC cut to a woman seemingly giving Sir Ben Kingsley a lap-dance, Twitter exploded with snarky theories about who his companion was.  It turned out to be his wife, an actress who's probably entertaining offers from Starz and Cinemax for original series right now.

9.  Harvey Weinstein Could Win Awards For a Ham Sandwich.  The old joke is that any decent prosecutor could get a grand jury to indict one, but Harvey makes his hold on the Hollywood Foreign Press Associaiton pay off in gold.  In the 10 categories in which The Weinstein Company had a nominee, TWC won 6:  3 for The Artist and 1 each for MY WEEK WITH MARILYN, THE IRON LADY and--most remarkably-- a Best Song award for Madonna's dreadful W.E.


8.  Jean Dujardin's Appearances Probably Won Him Some Oscar Votes.  First there's his silent Douglas Fairbanks bit to end his acceptance speech, then he leaps into a little dance as the telecast cuts to commercial, and in case all that wasn't cute enough, when The Artist wins Comedy/Musical, he's the one with the adorable dog.  If you're vying against George Clooney, Hollywood's King of Charm, you need every trick you can get...

7.  Stars Count At the Globes.  Exhibit A:  Madonna.  Exhibit B:  Steven Spielberg, taking Best Animated Film for THE ADVENTURES OF TININ just because he wasn't going to win anything for WAR HORSE.  (But at least A SEPARATION managed to win Best Foreign Film over Angelina Jolie's picture.)

6.  The HFPA Isn't Thrilled With The Artist Either.  3 of the 4 categories The Weinstein Company lost were defeats for Artist:  Director (Martin Scorsese for HUGO), Screenplay (Woody Allen for MIDNIGHT IN PARIS), and Supporting Actress (Octavia Spencer for The Help), with Supporting Actor going to Christopher Plummer for BEGINNERS rather than Kenneth Branagh for My Week With Marilyn.  And 2 of the 3 awards Artist won (Picture and Actor) were in Comedy/Musical, where under Globe rules, it didn't have to face off with any of the heavier Dramatic competition.  (The only exception was the meaningless category of Best Score.)  The message:  they liked Artist a lot--but they didn't love it.

5.  The HFPA Might Want to Keep Its Earlier Awards Quiet.  Jessica Lange won Best Actress for King Kong?  Really?  It might be a good rule of thumb not to mention any Globe winners from the pre-Pia Zadora erea.

4.  Brad Pitt's Loss Was Meaningful.  Pitt has his work cut out for him trying to get the Oscar against Clooney and Dujardin, especially because MONEYBALL, although it might get nominated, isn't a serious contender for Best Picture, and its director Bennett Miller didn't get a DGA nomination and may not do better with the Oscars.  A Globe win would have been extremely helpful.

3.  Ricky Gervais Can Be As Bland A Host As Anyone.  For all his and NBC's hype of how outrageous he was going to be, Gervais didn't say anything remotely shocking or insulting in the entire telecast, and his "A" material was at the level of mentioning "Jodie Foster's Beaver."  Even what would have been his one sharp bit of asking Johnny Depp if he'd ever actually seen The Tourist was undercut by the fact that he'd just said that his buddy Depp guest stars on his new HBO series.  Given Gervais's limp material, Madonna's shot at his bow that likened kissing him to kissing a woman seemed nastier than anything Gervais had to say.  (The best zinger of the night actually came from Seth Rogen, noting as he read the Best Comedy/Musical Actress nominees that Michelle Williams was in "that hysterical comedy" My Week With Marilyn.)

2.  The Help's Loss At the Globes Doesn't Mean Much.  With the HFPA's foreign sensibilities, The Help isn't exactly their style.  (A loss for The Descendants, though, would have been crippling for that film.)  Much more important will be the SAG and PGA Awards. 

1.  The Oscar Race Is Still Open.  At this point, The Artist, The Help, The Descendants, Hugo and even Midnight In Paris could all still have a legitimate shot at Oscar, as could Clooney, Dujardin and Pitt for Actor, and Streep, Williams and Viola Davis for Actress.  Consider the Globes tonight's equivalent of the New Hampshire primary:  it confirmed most of what we already knew, but didn't resolve much.

Next up:  the Producers Guild Awards on January 21.

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SHOWBUZZDAILY 2011 IN REVIEW: THE TOP 10 FILMS

4:11 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,



See Also:

As a movie year, 2011 felt, more than anything else, like a reflection of an art and a business in disarray.  Economically, it was a down year and for the major studios, a frightening one:  beyond the special case of the Harry Potter  finale, virtually every Hollywood franchise slipped from prior success in the US, saved from barrels of red ink only because overseas audiences embraced them in record-breaking numbers.  Even the technology of "film" was and continues to be in flux:  more and more motion pictures are shot and distributed on high-definition video that's increasingly difficult for viewers to tell from traditional film stock; US audiences are growing tired, for the most part, of inferior 3D; and the dispute over whether motion-capture performance (like Andy Serkis's Caesar in Rise of the Planet of the Apes) constitutes award-worthy "acting" is growing hotter.  Creatively, too, it seemed like the movies were in a holding pattern, waiting to find out what the next exciting wave would be.  Despite all this, there continued to be films worth seeing and commemorating, and here were the best 10 of them:

1.MARGIN CALL:  A group of affluent men (and one woman) sit in conference rooms in the middle of a deserted Wall Street night talking about money in hushed tones, and it's all somehow post-apocalyptic.  Which is accurate, because they’re watching their economic universe, overnight, go poof--and as in any post-apocalyptic story, the real question is who will survive.  J.C. Chandor’s film, as cunningly structured as a thriller, was the writing/directing debut of the year--not a David Mamet retread or a mere financial meltdown docudrama, but a humane, eloquent and ruthlessly smart story about modern capitalism and the way it reflects human nature.  The fact that the Screen Actors Guild didn’t even nominate the actors, headed by Kevin Spacey, Jeremy Irons and producer Zachary Quinto, for Best Ensemble tells you all you’ll ever need to know about the SAG Awards.  

2. SHAME:  Steve McQueen’s NC-17 drama revolved around a sex addict, and certainly wasn’t for everyone.  But  beneath the (unerotic) sex was the story of a brother and sister being torn apart by their own private demons.  McQueen, in complete mastery of the art form, refused to provide easy explanations or a therapeutic happy ending, and Michael Fassbender and Carey Mulligan supplied 2 of the most savagely wrenching performances of the decade. 

3. EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE:  Unaccountably, the most controversial and divisive movie of the year, apparently because it dared to touch, in its apolitical and fictional way, on what turned out to be the third rail of American popular culture:   9/11.  Stephen Daldry’s filmmaking and Eric Roth's script (adapted from Jonathan Safran Foer's novel) superbly balanced sentimentality, quirkiness and profound heartbreak, and the first-time actor Thomas Horn managed to dominate a supporting cast that included Tom Hanks, Sandra Bullock and the extraordinary Max Von Sydow., whose silent performance outshone anything in the insanely overrated The Artist

4. CRAZY, STUPID, LOVE:  Hollywood's most pleasant surprise of the year, a romantic comedy drama that was actually romantic, comic and dramatic—sometimes even all at once.  Glenn Ficarra and John Fuqua nimbly tapdanced the shifting tones of Dan Fogelman’s marvelous script (which also had the year’s best third-act surprise), and the letter-perfect ensemble included Steve Carell, Julianne Moore, Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone, Marisa Tomei and Analeigh Tipton.

5. WIN WIN:  Tom McCarthy writes and directs movies about ordinary human beings with the grace, understanding and complexity of a great American novelist.  Win Win, about the ethical struggles of a high school wrestling coach, was smarter, tougher and yards more perceptive than The Descendants, but since both are distributed by the same studio (Fox Searchlight, also responsible for burying the very fine Margaret), McCarthy's script and the beautiful performances by Paul Giamatti and Amy Ryan (who should be forced—bodily, if necessary—to play a couple at least once every couple of years) are being ignored

6. RANGO:  A strange and wonderful animated movie from director Gore Verbinski, writer John Logan and star/muse Johnny Depp that was like Pixar on acid:  deranged, inspired comedy about spaghetti westerns, heroism, Chinatown, existentialism, the meaning of identity if you're an actual chameleon, and a half-dozen other topics, all populated by crazy-looking reptiles on gorgeous landscapes.

7. MONEYBALL:  Michael Lewis’s book about abstract theories of how a low-spending baseball team remade the rules of drafting and trading for players had no business even being a movie.  But with master screenwriters Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin, director Bennett Miller and a cast headed by the year's most unlikely comedy team, Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill, the result was funny, bracingly intelligent, and often dramatically thrilling.

8. THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO:  Even though audiences were thoroughly familiar with Stieg Larsson's pageturning potboiler and the solid Swedish film adaptation, David Fincher made it his gripping own, with the help of screenwriter Zaillian (again), a breakout performance by Rooney Mara, excellent support from Daniel Craig, Stellan Skarsgard and the rest of the cast, and a fabulously gifted technical crew that included cinematographer Jeff Cronenweth and composers Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross.

9.  MIDNIGHT IN PARIS:  Never, ever count Woody Allen out.  At the age of 75, after more than 40 feature films and widely believed to have outlasted his boxoffice prime, he came back with, if not one of his very best, a richly entertaining and even wise bauble that became the biggest hit of his career (if you don’t adjust for inflation), as breezy and charming as it was clever.

10.  THE HELP:  Tate Taylor’s adaptation of the best-selling novel was no triumph of the filmmaking art, and it’s perfectly fair to criticize the movie's oversimplifications and unapologetic sentimentality.  But months later, it still stands as one of the most engrossing and narratively satisfying dramas of the year , and its cast headed by Viola Davis, Emma Stone, Octavia Spencer, Bryce Dallas Howard and Jessica Chastain couldn’t have been better.

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STATUETTE STAKES: The Ides of Golden Globes

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The Golden Globes are given out by 80 international journalists whose opinions, when they're not voting on these awards, are of no importance whatsoever to anyone on the planet other than their particular loved ones.  But the combination of a usually entertaining TV show (hosted again this year by Ricky Gervais) and enough years to have established a brand name has created a collective delusion that The Globes Matter, and therefore they do.  The full list of nominees is here, and let's talk a bit about the day's winners and losers--Movies first.

THE FAVORITES:  WINNERS - The Artist, The Descendants and The Help all reinforced their status as the films to beat in the Oscar race, stacking up the most nominations (6 for Artist, 5 for the other two).  Ditto Brad Pitt, George Clooney and Jean DuJardin for Actor,  and Meryl Streep, Michelle Williams and Viola Davis for Actress. 


EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE:  LOSER - Is it the 9/11 theme?  The very late start to industry and press screenings?  Not clear yet, but this seemingly sure-thing Oscar contender has been coming up dry everywhere so far.

WAR HORSE:  LOSER  Yes, even with a Picture nomination.  The snub of Spielberg for director, apart from being a reminder of the bad old days when Jaws and The Color Purple could receive Oscar nominations while Spielberg was excluded, strongly suggests that War Horse isn't in the top rank of nominees.

THE TREE OF LIFE:  LOSER - One might have thought that the international sensibility of the Globes would lend itself to Terence Malick's hugely ambitious, equal parts brilliant and pretentious epic.  But one would be wrong, as Tree couldn't manage a single nomination.

THE IDES OF MARCH:  WINNER - George Clooney's mixed-bag political drama had been largely ignored thus far, but the Globes went for it in a big way, with nominations for Picture, Director, Actor (Ryan Gosling) and Screenplay.  Which leads us to...

RYAN GOSLING:  WINNER - Nominated not just for Ides, but in the Comedy/Musical Actor category for Crazy Stupid Love.  But--

CRAZY STUPID LOVE:  LOSER - Despite some of the best reviews of any comedy this year, Gosling's was its only nomination.

MONEYBALL:  WINNER:  Was in danger of being relegated to the acting and script categories, but its Picture nomination puts it back in the big-boy conversation.  (Bennett Miller's absence from the Director nominees, though, means it may not have much chance to win.)

GLENN CLOSE:  WINNER - Nearly fell out of the Best Actress race entirely for a minute there, but although she's clearly a notch below the Streep-Williams-Davis trio of favorites, at least she's back in the running.

MELISSA MCCARTHY:  LOSER - She's been the darling of critics' groups, but didn't make the cut here.  It's worth noting that 8 of the 10 Supporting Actor/Actress nominees are from Dramas rather than Comedy/Musicals, the only exceptions being Berenice Bejo from The Artist and Kenneth Branagh from My Week With Marilyn, both so clearly classy they transcend mere "comedy."

ROONEY MARA:  WINNER - The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo hasn't been much in the mix so far, but Mara gets her foot in the door for an Oscar Actress nomination.  

MADONNA/THE PAPARAZZI:  WINNERS - The Globes have never been shy about nominating celebrities so they'll show up at the awards and get some attention, and if it takes giving 2 music/song nominations to the dreadful W.E. to get Madonna to the party... so be it. 

Coming Soon:  The TV Nominees

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STATUETTE STAKES: NY Film Critics Kick Off Awards Season

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The New York Film Critics Circle famously (notoriously?), having decided that they simply couldn't wait to announce their 2011 awards until, y'know, they had actually seen all the movies (when Warners couldn't rush them a copy of Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close--which doesn't open until December 25--the Circle simply ignored it), has made its late-November proclamations.  After the break, the winners and some thoughts:

Best Picture:  THE ARTIST  It's Oscar time, and that means Harvey Weinstein.  The Artist, with its admirable mix of craft and movie love, has a chance of overwhelming the critical establishment, and while that's no guarantee of Oscar glory (remember The Social Network), it certainly could make for a frontrunner.  Awards like this will also help the picture be seen by a more mainstream audience, which in turn doesn't hurt with the Academy.

Best Director:  Michel Hazanavicius, THE ARTIST  Ditto.

Best Actor:  Brad Pitt, MONEYBALL and THE TREE OF LIFE  Pitt (and Jessica Chastain below) benefit from the fact that critics groups base their awards on a year's body of work rather than for a single film.  Having 2 well-regarded pictures in one calendar year is a big boost.  Also, the fact that there's no tremendous favorite in this category could give Pitt the best chance of his career thus far for a victory.  (Which would probably be for Moneyball.)

Best Actress:  Meryl Streep, THE IRON LADY This race has seemed to narrow quickly to Streep vs Michelle Williams (and possibly Viola Davis), and the first volley goes to The Great One.  Big loser here is Glenn Close, whose Albert Nobbs is currently under the radar and may stay there.

Best Supporting Actor:  Albert Brooks, DRIVE  That perfect combination of a talent that richly deserves reward for decades of superb work with a role that genuinely surprised everyone (and in which he was remarkable ).  Christopher Plummer in Beginners seems to be his main competition.

Best Supporting Actress:  Jessica Chastain, THE TREE OF LIFE, TAKE SHELTER and THE HELP  The It Girl of 2011, and this list of movies doesn't even include her excellent turns in The Debt, Texas Killing Fields or Coriolanus.  The Oscar question is whether so many fine performances will fracture her chances of actually winning.

Best Screenplay:  Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian, MONEYBALL  There aren't writers in Hollywood more A-list than these two, and in Moneyball they successfully brought to the screen a piece of source material as unpromising as anything out there.

Best Foreign-Language Film:  A SEPARATION  Sony Classics isn't opening this Iranian drama until the very end of December, but it's been making the rounds of film festivals for months.

Best Cinematography:  Emmanuel Lubezki, THE TREE OF LIFE  Even people who gave up on the movie had to bow their heads at the spectacular look of the film. 

Best Nonfiction Film:  CAVE OF FORGOTTEN DREAMS  Werner Herzog is a figure beloved by critics, and Cave was a film where his fascinations melded beautifully with the subject matter.  Also impressive as one of the first documentaries to make truly effective use of 3D.

Best First Feature:  MARGIN CALL  Yay, NYFCC!  One of the year's very best pictures--first or otherwise--gets a shout-out that will hopefully keep it alive down the awards season trail.


 

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THE STATUETTE STAKES: The Contenders (Part I)

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While you weren't looking, the Oscar race began.

One could make the argument, of course, that it's been on for months--since, at least, Woody Allen's MIDNIGHT IN PARIS energized the indie/art-film audience and propelled him into mass consciousness for the first time in years.  (On the other hand, one could also argue that this year's Oscar race started roughly the moment the producers of THE KING'S SPEECH stopped saying "Thank you" last February 27.)

Certainly the Oscars have been in the air since the incredibly complicated new voting rules for Best Picture nominations were announced.  As a result of those rules, we won't know until the nominations are actually announced just how many Best Picture nominees there will be--the final number could be anywhere between 5 and 10, because (to simplify brutally) a minimum threshold has to be met for any given film beyond 5 to qualify for a nomination.

Here at SHOWBUZZDAILY we're embracing the concept of the Oscars as a horse-race.  The Academy Awards are enormous fun, but let's face it:  they have a relatively limited amount to do with quality, and a great deal to do with strategy, demographics and luck.  (Sure, in 20 years it will be clear that THE SOCIAL NETWORK should have won in 2010...  but in 20 years, it'll still be the picture that lost.)  So welcome to our coverage.  Over the next few days, we'll introduce the clear contenders, subdividing them as a racing form might.  Today:  the Chalk (those are the favorites, for the uninitiated).

The odds to win below come from actual bookmaking websites (which probably shouldn't be linked to); the odds to become one of the Best Picture nominees are ours.  (Note that there are some inconsistencies among the odds, due to biases among bookmaking patrons that include a preference for UK titles, and what some might consider undue regard for films that have already been released.)  Place your bets...

CHALK

WAR HORSE (DreamWorks/Disney - Dec. 25)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  1/5
Bookie odds to win:  5/2

Good Bet:  Steven Spielberg in his wheelhouse, a mix of sentimentality (A Boy and His Horse) and fierce,warfare (Boy Loses Horse to the trenches of WWI).  It also doesn't hurt that the film is based on the same novel as the Tony-Award winning play (although the two versions were adapted from the book independently of one another).

Bad Bet: Nobody's seen an inch of it yet... except for the trailer, which comes uncomfortably close to what a Spielberg parody mash-up might look like.  (Did John Williams compose the score in 1988?)
 
THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight - Nov. 18)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  1/3
Bookie odds to win:  3/1

Good Bet:  Alexander Payne's first film since Sideways has been hailed at multiple film festivals, and features a sure-to-be-nominated lead performance from George Clooney.

Bad Bet:  It's a little bit lightweight.  Maybe too much of a comedy for the Academy's taste. 

THE HELP (DreamWorks/Disney) - Released Aug. 10)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated: 1/2
Bookie odds to win:  20/1

Good Bet:  The little movie that could:  $163M in tickets sold, on a $25M budget.  A weighty subject, and an award-worthy ensemble cast.

Bad Bet:  Concerns about the film's protagonist being the Emma Stone character rather than the maids, plus a general feel among critics that it was a superficial look at an immensely complicated subject.  DreamWorks has War Horse to push--how much effort will they put into a movie that isn't directed by Spielberg and has already banked a ton of profit?

J.EDGAR (Warner Bros - Nov. 9)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated: 1/1
Bookie odds to win:  7/2

Good Bet:  Mr. Eastwood.  Exactly the kind of huge, political biography the Academy loves.  DiCaprio aging with lots of prosthetic make-up and a funny voice.  Could this be his year?

Bad Bet: Nobody's seen it yet, and it opens in less than 4 weeks.  Flags of Our Fathers and Invictus suggest that historical pageants may not be Clint's thing.  The subject matter is tricky--is the movie really going to tiptoe away from the gay angle? 

THE ARTIST (Weinstein - Nov. 23)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  3/2 
Bookie odds to win:  11/2

Good Bet:  There's nothing else remotely like it:  a black-and-white, virtually silent film that has a heart to go along with its technical perfection.  Already a critical darling after its film festival screenings.  It's about movies.  And it's getting this year's main push from Mr. Harvey Weinstein.

Bad Bet:  It's unique, all right, but is it important or just odd?  Is there an audience for it beyond cineastes?  Warm-hearted slapstick comedy isn't usually the Academy's genre of choice.

MIDNIGHT IN PARIS (Sony Classics - Released May 20)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  2/1
Bookie odds to win:  16/1

Good Bet:  The Woodman's Biggest Hit Ever.  (If you don't adjust for inflation.)  A movie everybody likes, it manages to be classy and smart and yet not ostentatious.

Bad Bet:  But let's face it, not one of Woody's very best.  The boxoffice gross may be prize enough. 

EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warner Bros - Dec. 25)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  5/2
Bookie odds to win:  8/1

Good Bet:  There is no better definition of "Oscar Bait" than a movie about 9/11, from the director of Billy Elliot, The Hours and The Reader, based on a critically acclaimed bestseller, that stars Oscar winners Tom Hanks and Sandra Bullock--not to mention Max Von Sydow, James Gandolfini, Viola Davis, and John Goodman. It could have been assembled from a How-To-Win-An-Oscar kit.

Bad Bet: Nobody's seen it.  Critics could very well resist the neatness of the package, and without critical acclaim, its chances would be incredibly far away.

COMING TOMORROW:  THE FIELD

COMING SUNDAY:  ALSO ELIGIBLE


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INTERNATIONAL BOX OFFICE NUMBERS September 11

3:26 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , ,

The biggest gainer in the international box office this week was The Smurfs.  Now with an overseas total of $321 million, The Smurfs has moved past Thor into the #9 position. 


Rise of the Planet of the Apes is starting to stall out overseas and will probably remain in 11th place, just behind Thor.

The Help is just behind #25 (Mr. Popper's Penguins).  With only $4 million overseas, The Help will not big a big player internationally, but it should pick up enough in the next week or two to make its way into the Top 25 chart. 


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WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS August 19-21

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Now that we are in mid-August, let the true dumping of movies begin!  Sure they can be called summer movies, but films the next few weeks have little hope of turning in impressive box office results.  The Help (a truly rare August hit) should continue at #1 with a very small second weekend decline, while Conan the Barbarian, Spy Kids: All the Time in the World and Fright Night duke it out with average (at best) returns.   

Opening at more than 2,900 theaters in North America by Lionsgate, Conan the Barbarian should average a slightly above par $5,700 per theater (for $16.5 million for Friday-Sunday).  With a small number of reviews posted at RottenTomatoes so far, critical opinion is mixed (52% positive).  This 3D entry should be on track for around $50 million total in North America, more proof that 3D is not the guarantee for success.


At about 3,000 theaters, Spy Kids: All the Time in the World from Weinstein/Dimension should average $4,850 (for $14.5 million this weekend).  No reviews yet for this movie, which has not been made available for critics (who would likely dump all over it).  This attempt at a franchise resuscitation is probably headed for around $60 million domestically. 

Opening at 2,900 theaters from DreamWorks and distributed by Disney, Fright Night should average $4,900 from Friday-Sunday (for a $14 million opening weekend).  Early reviews have been positive at RottenTomatoes (69% positive, which is near unanimity for a horror film).  This movie is most likely on track for $40 million in North America.     

Finally, opening at about 1,600 theaters, One Day from Focus/Universal should average a below average $3,700 per theater (for a meager $6 million opening weekend).  (The average wide-release film averages $4,900 per theater in its opening weekend).  Reviews have been brutal so far at RottenTomatoes (25% positive in the early returns).  One Day is probably headed for a domestic total of $14 million, if that.

                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
August 19-21                     Positive   Weekend   Total*

Conan the Barbarian      LG  R      52%      $ 16.5    $ 50
Spy Kids: All Time     Wein  PG     n/a      $ 14.5    $ 60
Fright Night         DW/Dis  R      69%      $ 14.0    $ 40
One Day               Focus  PG13   25%      $  6.0    $ 14

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

The Help should remain #1 with an amazing 22% decline thanks to strong word-of-mouth among its older demographic, who do not rush out to movies the first weekend.  This film will play for some time.  Final Destination 5 will have a typical decline for a horror sequel (54%), while Rise of the Planet of the Apes and The Smurfs continue to cruise nicely with declines around 40%. 

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
August 19-21                    vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*

The Help            DW/Dis        -22%      $20       $100
Rise of Planet of Apes Fox        -43%      $16       $175
The Smurfs            Sony        -37%      $ 9       $140
Final Destination 5     WB        -54%      $ 8.5     $ 45
30 Minutes or Less    Sony        -47%      $ 7       $ 40
Crazy, Stupid, Love.    WB        -38%      $ 4.5     $ 80
Harry Potter Deathly 2  WB        -37%      $ 4.5     $370


Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $100 million total, ranking 39th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $110 million, and the year before was $112 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like another up weekend at $125 million, up about 13% from this weekend last year.  This would be the sixth up weekend in a row.   


This Weekend Last Two Years

8.20.10

 Vampires Suck FOX PG13 Ken Jeong  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $13  Actual: $12
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $35  Actual: $37
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $44

 Piranha 3D WEINS R Richard Dreyfuss Elizabeth Shue 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $11  Actual: $10
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $29  Actual: $25
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $57

 Nanny McPhee Returns UNI PG Emma Thompson Maggie Gyllenhaal 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $11  Actual: $8
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $33  Actual: $29
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $64

 Lottery Ticket WB PG13 Bow Wow Brandon T Jackson 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $9  Actual: $11
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $26  Actual: $25
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $0

 The Switch MIR PG13 Jason Bateman Jennifer Aniston 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $6  Actual: $8
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $28  Actual: $28
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $22

8.21.09

 Inglourious Basterds WEINS R Brad Pitt Diane Kruger 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $28  Actual: $38
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $127  Actual: $121
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $193

 Shorts WB PG Jon Cryer William H Macy 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $11  Actual: $6
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $24  Actual: $21
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $5

 Post Grad FOX PG13 Alexis Bledel Michael Keaton 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $4  Actual: $3
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $4  Actual: $6
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $0


Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up as a whole (based on Friday's early numbers), on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday), and Monday we will have the final numbers for the entire weekend.

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THE BIJOU BOX OFFICE: Mid-Week Update

3:18 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,


With Monday and Tuesday numbers in, here are some notes about how the new arrivals are holding up:

THE HELP continues its impressive run:  its $8.3M on Monday-Tuesday represents a very robust 32% of its weekend total.  All signs continue to point to a strong second weekend hold, especially since early reviews for its direct competitor ONE DAY are fairly disastrous, running at only 28% positive on RottenTomatoes.


FINAL DESTINATION 5, on the other hand, has weekday numbers of $3.9M, a measly 22% of its $18M weekend.  Not unusually for its genre, it should flame out quickly--which would potentially leave the way clear for Dreamworks/Disney's FRIGHT NIGHT, if anyone cared that that movie exists.  (The studio has scheduled "Sneak Peek" screenings of the latter film around 9PM Thursday night, in an effort to build word of mouth for those who can't be roused for a midnight show.)

30 MINUTES OR LESS is holding better in a percentage sense, with $3.7M equaling 28% of its weekend--but at those numbers, even a good hold won't mean much.  Its main competition this weekend is CONAN THE BARBARIAN, a movie which while only at 44% on RottenTomatoes, doesn't care much about its reviews.

In the same boat as 30 Minutes only more so (less so?) is GLEE 3D, whose $1.6M is 27% of its weekend as it heads to oblivion.  Supplanting it in the hearts of young viewers this weekend will be SPY KIDS:  ALL THE TIME IN THE WORLD, billed as being in "4D" because it features odors as well as objects protruding from the screen.  The Weinstein Company seems to have little interest in showing this one to critics.

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WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS August 12-14

12:02 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,

Ah, the dog days of summer in August.  It's the time when studios start dumping movies.  Sure there can be a surprise in this month (see District 9 two years ago this weekend), but the lower box office volume in August simply works against most films succeeding.  A quick look at the numbers: a typical weekend in May or June totals $150 million for the top 12 films, while a typical weekend in July balloons to over $160 million.  But an average weekend in August musters only $110 million, and by September it is under $80 million.  With that background, four films open this weekend, and we expect none to come anywhere close to $100 million domestic box office and most to be closer to $50 million.   


Opening at more than 3,100 theaters, Final Destination 5 should average a somewhat above par $7,000 per theater (for $21.5 million for Friday-Sunday).  We don't have a sense of critical reception yet, as there are too few reviews posted at RottenTomatoes.  But most horror movies, regardless of reviews, are doomed to steep declines each weekend.  This entry should have a low domestic multiple and end up around $50 million total in North America.



UPDATED  At about 2,600 theaters, 30 Minutes or Less should average $6,750 (for $17.5 million this weekend).  The R-rated caper comedy has received mixed reviews so far, 47% positive at RottenTomatoes from the early reviewers.  This comedy is probably headed for around $60 million domestically. 

Opening at 2,511 theaters, The Help should average $6,720 from Friday-Sunday (for a $17 million weekend).  The film already opened Wednesday, and we are estimating $10 million Wednesday-Thursday for a five-day opening of $27 million.  Critics have been broadly positive about The Help (73% positive at RottenTomatoes), as is our own Mitch Salem in his review.  As we have seen in the past, this critical buzz can mean small declines in coming weekends.  A conservative forecast also puts The Help as a $65 million movie in North America, although this number will be revised upward if the second weekend is especially impressive.     

Finally, opening at about 1,800 theaters, Glee: The 3D Concert Movie should average $4,500 per theater (for an $8 million opening weekend).  (The average wide-release film averages $4,900 per theater in its opening weekend).  Reviews have been positive so far at RottenTomatoes, but the small number of reviews so far prevents us from making a definitive call.  In all likelihood, fans of the Fox TV show will see the movie early in its run or wait for it on pay per view at home, meaning the concert film will not have legs at the box office.  Glee 3D is probably headed for a domestic total of $20 million, if that.

                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
August 12-14                     Positive   Weekend   Total*

Final Destination 5      WB  R      n/a      $ 21.5    $ 50
30 Minutes or Less     Sony  R      47%      $ 17.5    $ 60
The Help             Dis/DW  PG13   73%      $ 17.0    $ 65
Glee: The 3D Concert    Fox  PG     n/a      $  8.0    $ 20

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


Rise of the Planet of the Apes should remain #1 with a fairly average 51% decline (though that is a good number for a sci-fi movie), while The Change-Up should decline 47% from a much smaller base.  The Smurfs should decline a decent 40%, continuing its solid run.

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
August 12-14                    vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*


Rise of Planet of Apes Fox        -51%      $27       $158
The Smurfs            Sony        -40%      $12.5     $127
Cowboys & Aliens       Uni        -52%      $ 7.5     $101
Crazy, Stupid, Love.    WB        -36%      $ 7.5     $ 76
The Change-Up          Uni        -47%      $ 7       $ 35
Captain America        Par        -46%      $ 7       $179
Harry Potter Deathly 2  WB        -42%      $ 7       $368


Box Office Volume


For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $121 million total, ranking 25th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $132 million, and the year before was $125 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like another up weekend at $146 million, up about 10% from this weekend last year.  This would be the fifth up weekend in a row, although not as big an increase as we have seen the last several weeks.   



This Weekend Last Two Years

8.13.10

 The Expendables LG R Sylvester Stallone Jason Statham  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $31  Actual: $35
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $107  Actual: $103
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $171

 Eat Pray Love SONY PG13 Julia Roberts Javier Bardem  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $23  Actual: $23
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $78  Actual: $81
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $124

 Scott Pilgrim vs the World UNI PG13 Michael Cera Mary Elizabeth Winstead  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $15  Actual: $11
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $38  Actual: $31
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $16

8.14.09

 District 9 SONY R    
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $29  Actual: $37
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $125  Actual: $116
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $89

 Time Traveler's Wife WB PG13 Rachel McAdams Eric Bana  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $18  Actual: $19
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $61  Actual: $63
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $37


 Ponyo DIS G    
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: n/a  Actual: $4
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $20  Actual: $15
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $186


 (500) Days of Summer FOX PG13 Zooey Deschanel Joseph Gordon-Levitt  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: n/a  Actual: $3
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $34  Actual: $32
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $26

Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up as a whole (based on Friday's early numbers), on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday), and Monday we will have the final numbers for the entire weekend.

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THE SHOWBUZZDAILY FIRST ANNUAL SUMMER MOVIE BLOCKBUSTER DRAFT!

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Here at ShowbuzzDaily, we like to think that we're smarter than anyone else.  But more importantly, we like to think we're smarter than each other.  So the two of us here (Mitch Metcalf and your humble narrator Mitch Salem) decided to pick our own slates of summer movies to compete against each other, each of us stubborn in the belief that our list of films will, by Labor Day, outgross the total US boxoffice of the other's. 

We followed the general draft rules used by pro sports leagues (when they're not mid-strike or -lockout):  Mitch M graciously gave me the first pick, and then we alternated through 2 dozen movies that will be opening between May 6 and August 12.  At the traditional end of the summer season on Labor Day, one of us will have bragging rights and the other will have to call the winner "Mr. Mitch"--at least until it's time for the Holiday Blockbuster Draft in November.

Here's a transcript of our choices, cleansed of four-letter words and threats of violence.  Remember to check back here every week for an update on who's ahead and who's Mitch Metcalf.  (I kid, I kid.)

MS:  I'll start with the obvious.  HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS PART 2 (July 15), aka Harry Potter 8.  It's a rock-solid franchise, and this is the final chapter in a story that's been followed for more than a decade by millions of fans--plus it's in 3D.  Go Gryffindor!

MM:  TRANSFORMERS:  DARK OF THE MOON (July 1).  Summer is all about heat and blowing stuff up.  Plus there's always room for the art of Michael Bay!

MS:  PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN:  ON STRANGER TIDES (May 20).  Audiences love them some Johnny Depp on a pirate ship, and even though the last installment was awful, this time there's Penelope Cruz and those tasty 3D ticket premiums.

MM:  KUNG FU PANDA 2 (May 26).  The theme of franchises continues.  Since I just missed Jack Sparrow (aaarrghh! or however one spells that pirate utterance), I'll go with the lovable Jack Black.  Besides, the ads promise it's "Kung Fu-ier"!

MS:  I guess this is why Hollywood worships franchises.  At least THE HANGOVER PART 2 (May 26) isn't a superhero or a cartoon.  The R rating makes a rare appearance in the list of top grossers (heavy on the "gross").


MM:  CARS 2 (June 24).  OK, now I'm pissed.  Hangover 2 was my next pick because it has explosive potential if it's half as good as the original (I hear it's actually going to deliver).  Oh well, I also have confidence in Pixar.  It's just not as cool...

MS:  I'm proud to announce the first non-sequel pick of this draft:  JJ Abrams' (not to mention Steven Spielberg's) SUPER 8 (June 10).  It already has the best trailer of the summer.

MM:  COWBOYS & ALIENS (July 29).  OK, Salem, this is really getting annoying.  Conventional wisdom has other sequels ahead of Super 8, but it will probably be the one that surprises the most and could seal my draft fate.  Well played.  In the vein of explosions and with a "your peanut butter's in my chocolate" combination of genres, I am betting this one delivers popcorn fun. 

MS:  Cowboys & Aliens probably has the most intriguing premise of the summer blockbusters, so it could get that late summer Inception audience... if it works.  Now that we're past the sure things, I'm taking X MEN:  FIRST CLASS (June 3), a reboot that doesn't include any of the original cast, but has a group of really strong actors (James McAvoy!  Michael Fassbender!  Jennifer Lawrence!  January Jones!  Rose Byrne!) plus Matthew Vaughn, the director of Kick-Ass.

MM:  CAPTAIN AMERICA:  THE FIRST AVENGER.  Now it does get interesting.  Despite some disappointing TV commercials (that need to be improved), I'm going with the jingoistic ring of the title.  As oppposed to Green Lantern, which many will think was already released this winter with Seth Rogen in the lead.

MS:  I agree, Captain America looks better than Green Lantern--I'm just not sure that's saying much.  I'm going back to the future with RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES (August 5).  It's a risk, because the last one wasn't that long ago (and wasn't that good), and it stars James Franco, who suddenly doesn't look like the next big thing... but early glimpses of the CG apes are awfully impressive.

MM:  THOR (May 6).  Now is the time we'd like to be flies on the wall in studio screening rooms.  Not even to see the films themselves, just the expressions on the executive's faces.  I'm betting Thor's well-reviewed story will push it over the top.  Or it just might be, well, over the top.  Looking forward to your take in Friday's review.

MS:  I'm a few hours away from seeing Thor--and suddenly not rooting for it so hard.  I'm going to radically switch genres and hope the Hangover audience still has an appetite for some summer raunch:  BAD TEACHER (June 24), with Cameron Diaz as the titular civil servant.

MM:  That would put her back on the map.  My next pick is ZOOKEEPER (July 8).  It's got animals galore and Kevin James, who has delivered before (Paul Blart).

MS:  Damn, that was going to be my next one--I agree, Zookeeper's in a great position to hit the sweet spot with its target audience.  Ah well... I think we're both united in not thinking much of GREEN LANTERN's (June 17) prospects as superhero movies go, but still it's a big-time 3D spectacle, so it's going to make some dough.  I'm just glad it's Warners and not us who'll be worrying about matching the green lantern with the red ink.

MM:  I'm going to dip my toe into the romantic comedy waters with LARRY CROWNE (July 1).  Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts, with Hanks also co-writing and directing.  What could possibly go wrong?  I know, I know--everything.  But we shall see.

MS:  Leading my personal list of "Do I really have to see this?" summer movies, but still likely to draw in some kids (and stoners):  THE SMURFS (July 29).

MM:   I'm going with BRIDESMAIDS (May 13), hoping it's the female Hangover. I know it won't be, but I'm still bitter about losing the real sequel and am not thinking clearly.

MS:  In the same genre, I'm taking FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS (July 22), the red-band version of No Strings Attached.  It's directed by Will Gluck, who made the sleeper hit Easy A last fall, and maybe lightning will strike twice.

MM:  Which Steve Carell will show up in CRAZY STUPID LOVE (July 29)?  In the right vehicle he's incredibly appealing.  Otherwise he's dead weight in clunkers.  I'm voting for the former (admittedly knowing very little about the film).

MS:  August is a strange month to launch a weighty historical movie that might want to be remembered at awards time.  But I'm going to take a shot that the fans who kept THE HELP (August 12) on bestseller lists for 2 years will come out to support it as a film.

MM:  I'm going to go with a subject we all know something about:  HORRIBLE BOSSES (July 8).  Enough said.

MS: True enough.  With my last pick, I'm taking Jesse Eisenberg, Danny McBride and Aziz Ansari in 30 MINUTES OR LESS (August 12) and hoping for the best.  Which I believe leaves you with...

MM:  MR. POPPER'S PENGUINS (June 17)!  Oh hooray.  The lamest title on the slate, and it's all mine.  Really feels like a Jim Carrey stinker.  Well, this has actually been fun.  On to the summer!

To summarize, here are our summer slates:

SALEM
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Pirates of the Caribbean:  On Stranger Tides
The Hangover Part 2 
Super 8
X-Men:  First Class
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Bad Teacher
The Green Lantern
The Smurfs
Friends With Benefits
The Help
30 Minutes or Less

METCALF
Transformers:  Dark of the Moon
Kung Fu Panda 2
Cars 2
Cowboys & Aliens
Captain America:  The First Avenger
Thor
Zookeeper
Larry Crowne
Bridesmaids
Crazy Stupid Love
Horrible Bosses
Mr. Popper's Penguins

Remember to check back here every week for an update on our scores!
 

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