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Showing posts with label Moneyball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Moneyball. Show all posts

OSCAR ODDS for Major Categories -- UPDATED

12:16 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,

Updated Oscar odds confirm a complete snooze is in store for Sunday's Academy Awards as The Artist and director Michel Hazanavicius are heavy favorites to win Best Picture and Best Director, bringing a very French flavor -- and depressed ratings -- to ABC's telecast.  Oscar ratings rise and fall based on the suspense of the major races and especially when a movie is in contention that a mass audience has actually paid to see.  There is virtually no race in the Supporting Actor and Actress categories, although there might be some rooting interest in Best Actor (George Clooney vs Jean Dujardin) and Best Actress (Viola Davis vs Meryl Streep)

The Artist has moved from 1:6 odds in early February to 1:12 now, increasing its implied chances of winning from 72% to over 78%.  A similar trend is seen in the Best Director race (see the updated charts below by clicking "read more").




         ACADEMY AWARDS BETTING ODDS
            averages from easyodds.com


     BEST PICTURE       Feb 20    Feb 8        

     The Artist           1:12     1:6    Even more the favorite
     The Descendants     10:1      6:1    Fading
     Hugo                20:1     14:1    Fading
     The Help            20:1     18:1    Slightly less likely
     War Horse           40:1     26:1    Fading fast
     Midnight in Paris   78:1     55:1    Falling out fast
     Moneyball           80:1     56:1    Falling out fast
     Extremely Loud &    88:1     59:1    Falling out fast
      Incredibly Close  
     The Tree of Life    88:1     73:1    Falling out fast

     BEST DIRECTOR
     Michel Hazanavicius  1:9      1:6    Improving odds
     Martin Scorcese      5:1      4:1    Hanging in there
     Alexander Payne     20:1     13:1    Fading
     Terrence Malick     40:1     37:1    Fading 
     Woody Allen         44:1     35:1    Fading fast

 

The Artist is also showing some late momentum in Best Actor with Jean Dujardin improving from 6:4 odds (about a 33% chance of winning) to 7:10 (about 49%).  George Clooney (in color and with full sound) has faded from 1:2 (about a 55% chance of winning) to 11:10 (about 40%).  This is the only category in which all of the long-shot nominees have a better shot of winning (even Demian Bichir from the $1.8 million grossing A Better Life has gone from 57:1 to 42:1).  

In Best Actress, Viola Davis from The Help is slightly more of a favorite, moving from 5:6 (46% chance) to 4:6 (about 51%).  But don't count out Iron Lady Meryl Streep, who is certainly practicing and perfecting her shocked look (remember the Golden Globes?), holding fairly steady -- 1:1 (42% chance) in early February to 11:10 (40%) now.  The other three nominees in the category have fallen out of the running according to oddsmakers.

         ACADEMY AWARDS BETTING ODDS
            averages from easyodds.com


     BEST ACTOR         Feb 20    Feb 8                     
     Jean Dujardin        7:10     6:4    Moving up to #1 
     George Clooney      11:10     1:2    Moving down to #2

     Brad Pitt           18:1     25:1    Slightly improved
     Gary Oldman         22:1     29:1    Slightly improved
     Demian Bichir       42:1     57:1    Slightly improved

     BEST ACTRESS    
     Viola Davis          4:6      5:6    Improved odds
     Meryl Streep        11:10     1:1    Slightly worse
     Michelle Williams   19:1     14:1    Fading
     Glenn Close         62:1     40:1    Fading fast
     Rooney Mara         64:1     42:1    Fading fast

No significant changes in the Best Supporting Actor and Actress categories.  Congratulations, Mr. Plummer and Ms. Spencer.         

         ACADEMY AWARDS BETTING ODDS
            averages from easyodds.com


     SUPPORTING ACTOR   Feb 20    Feb 8                     

     Christopher Plummer  1:50     1:25   More of a certainty 
     Kenneth Branagh     16:1     18:1    Moving up to distant #2
     Max Von Sydow       20:1      9:1    Fading
     Nick Nolte          39:1     32:1    Fading 
     Jonah Hill          61:1     46:1    Fading fast


     SUPPORTING ACTRESS 
     Octavia Spencer      1:25     1:20   Slightly stronger 
     Berenice Bejo        9:1      9:1    Steady 
     Jessica Chastain    23:1     18:1    Fading
     Melissa McCarthy    44:1     32:1    Fading fast
     Janet McTeer        49:1     33:1    Fading fast

Midnight in Paris remains the one to beat for Best Original Screenplay, edging up from 2:5 (about 60% chance of winning) to 2:7 (66%)  The Artist is still lurking as the most likely to upset Woody Allen, now 5:2 (24% chance) although that is down from 2:1 (28%) earlier in the month.  In Adapted Screenplay, The Descendants has improved from 2:5 (61%) to 1:5 (71% chance).  It seems only Moneyball stands in its way (adapting the wonderful, detailed Michael Lewis book into a character-driven film was quite an achievement), but the odds are now 5:1 (14% chance) from 4:1 (17%) earlier in the month.         

         ACADEMY AWARDS BETTING ODDS
            averages from easyodds.com


     ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Feb 20    Feb 8 
     Midnight in Paris    2:7      2:5    Slightly improved odds 
     The Artist           5:2      2:1    Slightly worse chance 
     Bridesmaids         28:1     23:1    Up from #5 to #3
     A Separation        30:1     19:1    Fading fast
     Margin Call         36:1     19:1    Fading fast


     ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 
     The Descendants      1:5      2:5    Closing the sale 
     Moneyball            5:1      4:1    Relatively steady 
     Hugo                10:1      5:1    Fading
     Tinker Tailor       17:1     14:1    Fading
     Ides of March       38:1     22:1    Fading fast


On to Sunday.



###

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STATUETTE STAKES: The Oscar Race That Wasn't

5:55 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,




This year's Academy Awards have so far engendered the kind of enthusiasm and excitement usually associated with a suburban DMV office on a Tuesday afternoon.  People seem to be sullenly resigned to the inevitability of THE ARTIST's victory, even though it would be unlikely to get anything like a majority of the Academy's estimated 5000 votes--but with the Best Picture vote split 9 ways, it doesn't need to come anywhere near that (the winning movie could theoretically take the award with only around 556 votes).  In any case, no unified opposition has formed in favor of any particular competing film, and the same apathy exists in almost every other major category.  At this rate, we might as well be talking about presidential politics.  

Are the Oscars really doomed to be this dull?  (ABC certainly hopes not, or this could be the lowest-rated ceremony in history.)  Is there no possibility for any unexpected moments of shock or even mild surprise?  Let's take a look.



BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:  As Mitch Metcalf noted in his survey of Oscar wagering odds, this is one category where The Artist is at a disadvantage (odds of 2:1), probably because as a silent movie, its intertitles don't provide much in the way of sparkling dialogue.  There are many who would like to see Woody Allen get some recognition for his late-career renaissance with MIDNIGHT IN PARIS, and that's currently the 2:5 favorite.  The other nominees MARGIN CALL, A SEPARATION and BRIDESMAIDS are all likely of the "be happy you're nominated" variety, although lovers of longshots might want to consider a wager on Bridesmaids at 23:1--it's by far the biggest hit of the group, and somewhat trendy after its critics' awards.  CHOICE:  Margin Call.  PREDICTION:  Midnight In Paris.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:  No one particularly cares about this category this year, but it's one of the very few to be fairly wide open.  THE DESCENDANTS is the favorite at 2:5 because of its perceived stature in the Best Picture race, and because with its polished dialogue it feels "written," but strictly as a work of adaptation, MONEYBALL, at 4:1, probably deserves to win, and its script is by the all-star team of Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian.  There's also increasing sentiment pointing to HUGO at 5:1, another tough adaptation from a children's picture book.  TINKER TAILOR SOLDIER SPY, which deserves its place, and THE IDES OF MARCH, which doesn't (it's actually weaker than its source material), are probably just along for the ride.  CHOICE AND PREDICTION:  Moneyball.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:  Here's where things get easy, and thus somewhat tedious.  Octavia Spencer is an overwhelming 1:20 favorite for THE HELP, and no other nominee seems to have a prayer of catching her.  Those who believe the Academy will utterly genuflect to The Artist may want to take a chance on 2d choice Berenice Bejo at 9:1, but 2011 It Girl Jessica Chastain will be back again to win in some future year, and Melissa McCarthy and Janet McTeer, with 2 of the year's most distinctive performances, will have to be content with their nomination certificates.  CHOICE:  Jessica Chastain.  PREDICTION:  Octavia Spencer.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:  Did the Academy bother to nominate anyone besides Christopher Plummer?  Oh, they did?  At 1:25, Plummer is the biggest favorite in any major category, and since unlike racehorses, actors can't be disqualified from a race for bumping another nominee or falling down and breaking their leg, he's pretty much unbeatable.  In another year, he and  Max Von Sydow (at 19:1) might have split the lovable old codger vote, but Plummer's accumulated industry goodwill just outweighs Von Sydow.'s  That leaves Kenneth Branagh (9:1) out of luck. Nick Nolte, while no longer young, isn't yet at the old codger stage of his career, and Jonah Hill is just in the promising newcomer stage of his.  CHOICE:  Max Von Sydow.  PREDICTION:  Christopher Plummer.

BEST ACTRESS:  There was a time when this looked like a real race between Meryl Streep and Viola Davis, but Davis has plunged ahead like Secretariat at the Belmont.  The current odds of 5:6 for Davis and 1:1 for Streep are misleadingly close, although one can never count out Harvey Weinstein and his none-too-subtle campaign bellowing the 29 years since Streep last won.  Michelle Williams might as well have gone lame down the stretch, Glenn Close picked the wrong year to seek a lifetime achievement award, and Rooney Mara is this category's Promising Newcomer.  CHOICE:  Michelle Williams.  PREDICTION:  Viola Davis.

BEST ACTOR:  The closest we're going to come to an exciting result this year.  George Clooney (1:2) is, well, George Clooney, as well-loved as anyone in Hollywood and with a solid stack of critics' awards to back him up this year.  Jean Dujardin (6:4) is the star of the probable Best Picture winner, and quite a charmer himself, plus he has the added degree of difficulty of performing silently (if there's one thing the Academy loves, it's degree of difficulty).  The fact that Dujardin shockingly won the SAG award means that either he has this sewn up, or that it was a reality check for Clooney's supporters, who realized they'd better get their votes in or risk blowing it.  Could Brad Pitt sneak in there at 18:1 for a universally-respected performance in a lower-profile film?  Probably not, but if this were a horserace, you'd want to include him on your exacta tickets.  Gary Oldman is a less likely sleeper at 22:1, especially because Tinker Tailor never really took off at the boxoffice.  Demian Bechir, while no newcomer, gets the Hey, We Just Noticed You slot.  CHOICE:  Brad Pitt.  PREDICTION:  George Clooney.

BEST DIRECTOR:  The smart money at 1:6 says that as Best Picture goes, so does Best Director, and that's probably right, clearing the way for Michel Hazanavicius to make his triumphant way to the podium.  If Martin Scorsese hadn't won just 6 years ago, this year would certainly be his, but he did, making his 4:1 odds probably overly optimistic.  Alexander Payne isn't the kind of showy director likely to win if his movie doesn't, so 13:1 sounds about right for him.  Terrence Malick, on the other hand, is both adored and disdained by passionate viewers on each side, and THE TREE OF LIFE wasn't enough of a hit to break him out of his art-house cell.  Those with some spare cash might want to consider Woody Allen, a huge longshot at 35:1 who's coming off the biggest hit of his career.  CHOICE:  Martin Scorsese.  PREDICTION:  Michel Hazanavicius.

BEST PICTURE:  Well, here we are.  Harvey Weinstein has, as is his wont, run an absolutely brilliant campaign for The Artist, successfully obscuring the fact that audiences in general haven't been taken by it, and playing up every conceivable voter-friendly angle.  (My favorites:  the ad emphasizing that Artist was the only Best Picture nominee to be shot in Los Angeles, and the screening hosted by producer Thomas Langmann strictly so Langmann could couple the film with The Two Of Us, the 1967 Best Foreign Film winner directed by Langmann's father Claude Berri, so that The Artist could magically be linked in voter minds with the older film's storyline of a Jewish boy rescued from the Nazis by an elderly gentile--Jews, children, the Holocaust and a lovable old codger, all in one neat package!)  The movie's 1:6 odds are well-earned.  Could anything beat it?  The 2d choice is The Descendants at 6:1, a movie that has gathered no head of steam whatsoever, and after that is the huge money-loser Hugo at 14:1 (remember, Scorsese had his victory lap 6 years ago).  Those looking for something, anything, to take the prize should probably concentrate on The Help at 18:1, the only genuine boxoffice hit of the nominees and winner of the SAG ensemble award (but the fact that the picture couldn't even get nominated for Best Director or Adapted Screenplay shows how tenuous its support probably is).  War Horse, a disappointment in every way, is somewhat puzzlingly next at 26:1.  Then the unlikely Midnight In Paris, Moneyball and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close follow at 55-59:1, and at the rear is the aesthete's dream, The Tree of Life at 73:1.  CHOICE:  Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.  PREDICTION (reluctantly):  The Artist.

Sigh.  Yawn.  We'll look in on the Oscar race again as we get closer to the big night... if we can find the energy.
 

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COUNTING TO 10: The Globes - Movies

9:48 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,



Even though the Oscar race has had clear favorites in THE DESCENDANTS, THE ARTIST and THE HELP since last fall, the first 2 haven't sparked any huge enthusiasm among the general public, where after almost 2 months, Descendants has yet to gross $50M, and Artist, which Harvey Weinstein hasn't dared put into general release, hasn't even made $9M.  And The Help is still battling against its so-so critical reception.  So despite the fact that we all know the Golden Globes shouldn't mean anything, being the choices of around 85 obscure international writers whose opinions, for 364 days of the year, are of no interest to anyone, we've nevertheless looked to the Globes to provide some clarity.  

That being the case, what did we learn tonight?

10.  Ben Kingsley Has A Very Affectionate Wife.  When NBC cut to a woman seemingly giving Sir Ben Kingsley a lap-dance, Twitter exploded with snarky theories about who his companion was.  It turned out to be his wife, an actress who's probably entertaining offers from Starz and Cinemax for original series right now.

9.  Harvey Weinstein Could Win Awards For a Ham Sandwich.  The old joke is that any decent prosecutor could get a grand jury to indict one, but Harvey makes his hold on the Hollywood Foreign Press Associaiton pay off in gold.  In the 10 categories in which The Weinstein Company had a nominee, TWC won 6:  3 for The Artist and 1 each for MY WEEK WITH MARILYN, THE IRON LADY and--most remarkably-- a Best Song award for Madonna's dreadful W.E.


8.  Jean Dujardin's Appearances Probably Won Him Some Oscar Votes.  First there's his silent Douglas Fairbanks bit to end his acceptance speech, then he leaps into a little dance as the telecast cuts to commercial, and in case all that wasn't cute enough, when The Artist wins Comedy/Musical, he's the one with the adorable dog.  If you're vying against George Clooney, Hollywood's King of Charm, you need every trick you can get...

7.  Stars Count At the Globes.  Exhibit A:  Madonna.  Exhibit B:  Steven Spielberg, taking Best Animated Film for THE ADVENTURES OF TININ just because he wasn't going to win anything for WAR HORSE.  (But at least A SEPARATION managed to win Best Foreign Film over Angelina Jolie's picture.)

6.  The HFPA Isn't Thrilled With The Artist Either.  3 of the 4 categories The Weinstein Company lost were defeats for Artist:  Director (Martin Scorsese for HUGO), Screenplay (Woody Allen for MIDNIGHT IN PARIS), and Supporting Actress (Octavia Spencer for The Help), with Supporting Actor going to Christopher Plummer for BEGINNERS rather than Kenneth Branagh for My Week With Marilyn.  And 2 of the 3 awards Artist won (Picture and Actor) were in Comedy/Musical, where under Globe rules, it didn't have to face off with any of the heavier Dramatic competition.  (The only exception was the meaningless category of Best Score.)  The message:  they liked Artist a lot--but they didn't love it.

5.  The HFPA Might Want to Keep Its Earlier Awards Quiet.  Jessica Lange won Best Actress for King Kong?  Really?  It might be a good rule of thumb not to mention any Globe winners from the pre-Pia Zadora erea.

4.  Brad Pitt's Loss Was Meaningful.  Pitt has his work cut out for him trying to get the Oscar against Clooney and Dujardin, especially because MONEYBALL, although it might get nominated, isn't a serious contender for Best Picture, and its director Bennett Miller didn't get a DGA nomination and may not do better with the Oscars.  A Globe win would have been extremely helpful.

3.  Ricky Gervais Can Be As Bland A Host As Anyone.  For all his and NBC's hype of how outrageous he was going to be, Gervais didn't say anything remotely shocking or insulting in the entire telecast, and his "A" material was at the level of mentioning "Jodie Foster's Beaver."  Even what would have been his one sharp bit of asking Johnny Depp if he'd ever actually seen The Tourist was undercut by the fact that he'd just said that his buddy Depp guest stars on his new HBO series.  Given Gervais's limp material, Madonna's shot at his bow that likened kissing him to kissing a woman seemed nastier than anything Gervais had to say.  (The best zinger of the night actually came from Seth Rogen, noting as he read the Best Comedy/Musical Actress nominees that Michelle Williams was in "that hysterical comedy" My Week With Marilyn.)

2.  The Help's Loss At the Globes Doesn't Mean Much.  With the HFPA's foreign sensibilities, The Help isn't exactly their style.  (A loss for The Descendants, though, would have been crippling for that film.)  Much more important will be the SAG and PGA Awards. 

1.  The Oscar Race Is Still Open.  At this point, The Artist, The Help, The Descendants, Hugo and even Midnight In Paris could all still have a legitimate shot at Oscar, as could Clooney, Dujardin and Pitt for Actor, and Streep, Williams and Viola Davis for Actress.  Consider the Globes tonight's equivalent of the New Hampshire primary:  it confirmed most of what we already knew, but didn't resolve much.

Next up:  the Producers Guild Awards on January 21.

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SHOWBUZZDAILY 2011 IN REVIEW: THE TOP 10 FILMS

4:11 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,



See Also:

As a movie year, 2011 felt, more than anything else, like a reflection of an art and a business in disarray.  Economically, it was a down year and for the major studios, a frightening one:  beyond the special case of the Harry Potter  finale, virtually every Hollywood franchise slipped from prior success in the US, saved from barrels of red ink only because overseas audiences embraced them in record-breaking numbers.  Even the technology of "film" was and continues to be in flux:  more and more motion pictures are shot and distributed on high-definition video that's increasingly difficult for viewers to tell from traditional film stock; US audiences are growing tired, for the most part, of inferior 3D; and the dispute over whether motion-capture performance (like Andy Serkis's Caesar in Rise of the Planet of the Apes) constitutes award-worthy "acting" is growing hotter.  Creatively, too, it seemed like the movies were in a holding pattern, waiting to find out what the next exciting wave would be.  Despite all this, there continued to be films worth seeing and commemorating, and here were the best 10 of them:

1.MARGIN CALL:  A group of affluent men (and one woman) sit in conference rooms in the middle of a deserted Wall Street night talking about money in hushed tones, and it's all somehow post-apocalyptic.  Which is accurate, because they’re watching their economic universe, overnight, go poof--and as in any post-apocalyptic story, the real question is who will survive.  J.C. Chandor’s film, as cunningly structured as a thriller, was the writing/directing debut of the year--not a David Mamet retread or a mere financial meltdown docudrama, but a humane, eloquent and ruthlessly smart story about modern capitalism and the way it reflects human nature.  The fact that the Screen Actors Guild didn’t even nominate the actors, headed by Kevin Spacey, Jeremy Irons and producer Zachary Quinto, for Best Ensemble tells you all you’ll ever need to know about the SAG Awards.  

2. SHAME:  Steve McQueen’s NC-17 drama revolved around a sex addict, and certainly wasn’t for everyone.  But  beneath the (unerotic) sex was the story of a brother and sister being torn apart by their own private demons.  McQueen, in complete mastery of the art form, refused to provide easy explanations or a therapeutic happy ending, and Michael Fassbender and Carey Mulligan supplied 2 of the most savagely wrenching performances of the decade. 

3. EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE:  Unaccountably, the most controversial and divisive movie of the year, apparently because it dared to touch, in its apolitical and fictional way, on what turned out to be the third rail of American popular culture:   9/11.  Stephen Daldry’s filmmaking and Eric Roth's script (adapted from Jonathan Safran Foer's novel) superbly balanced sentimentality, quirkiness and profound heartbreak, and the first-time actor Thomas Horn managed to dominate a supporting cast that included Tom Hanks, Sandra Bullock and the extraordinary Max Von Sydow., whose silent performance outshone anything in the insanely overrated The Artist

4. CRAZY, STUPID, LOVE:  Hollywood's most pleasant surprise of the year, a romantic comedy drama that was actually romantic, comic and dramatic—sometimes even all at once.  Glenn Ficarra and John Fuqua nimbly tapdanced the shifting tones of Dan Fogelman’s marvelous script (which also had the year’s best third-act surprise), and the letter-perfect ensemble included Steve Carell, Julianne Moore, Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone, Marisa Tomei and Analeigh Tipton.

5. WIN WIN:  Tom McCarthy writes and directs movies about ordinary human beings with the grace, understanding and complexity of a great American novelist.  Win Win, about the ethical struggles of a high school wrestling coach, was smarter, tougher and yards more perceptive than The Descendants, but since both are distributed by the same studio (Fox Searchlight, also responsible for burying the very fine Margaret), McCarthy's script and the beautiful performances by Paul Giamatti and Amy Ryan (who should be forced—bodily, if necessary—to play a couple at least once every couple of years) are being ignored

6. RANGO:  A strange and wonderful animated movie from director Gore Verbinski, writer John Logan and star/muse Johnny Depp that was like Pixar on acid:  deranged, inspired comedy about spaghetti westerns, heroism, Chinatown, existentialism, the meaning of identity if you're an actual chameleon, and a half-dozen other topics, all populated by crazy-looking reptiles on gorgeous landscapes.

7. MONEYBALL:  Michael Lewis’s book about abstract theories of how a low-spending baseball team remade the rules of drafting and trading for players had no business even being a movie.  But with master screenwriters Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin, director Bennett Miller and a cast headed by the year's most unlikely comedy team, Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill, the result was funny, bracingly intelligent, and often dramatically thrilling.

8. THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO:  Even though audiences were thoroughly familiar with Stieg Larsson's pageturning potboiler and the solid Swedish film adaptation, David Fincher made it his gripping own, with the help of screenwriter Zaillian (again), a breakout performance by Rooney Mara, excellent support from Daniel Craig, Stellan Skarsgard and the rest of the cast, and a fabulously gifted technical crew that included cinematographer Jeff Cronenweth and composers Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross.

9.  MIDNIGHT IN PARIS:  Never, ever count Woody Allen out.  At the age of 75, after more than 40 feature films and widely believed to have outlasted his boxoffice prime, he came back with, if not one of his very best, a richly entertaining and even wise bauble that became the biggest hit of his career (if you don’t adjust for inflation), as breezy and charming as it was clever.

10.  THE HELP:  Tate Taylor’s adaptation of the best-selling novel was no triumph of the filmmaking art, and it’s perfectly fair to criticize the movie's oversimplifications and unapologetic sentimentality.  But months later, it still stands as one of the most engrossing and narratively satisfying dramas of the year , and its cast headed by Viola Davis, Emma Stone, Octavia Spencer, Bryce Dallas Howard and Jessica Chastain couldn’t have been better.

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STATUETTE STAKES: The Ides of Golden Globes

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The Golden Globes are given out by 80 international journalists whose opinions, when they're not voting on these awards, are of no importance whatsoever to anyone on the planet other than their particular loved ones.  But the combination of a usually entertaining TV show (hosted again this year by Ricky Gervais) and enough years to have established a brand name has created a collective delusion that The Globes Matter, and therefore they do.  The full list of nominees is here, and let's talk a bit about the day's winners and losers--Movies first.

THE FAVORITES:  WINNERS - The Artist, The Descendants and The Help all reinforced their status as the films to beat in the Oscar race, stacking up the most nominations (6 for Artist, 5 for the other two).  Ditto Brad Pitt, George Clooney and Jean DuJardin for Actor,  and Meryl Streep, Michelle Williams and Viola Davis for Actress. 


EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE:  LOSER - Is it the 9/11 theme?  The very late start to industry and press screenings?  Not clear yet, but this seemingly sure-thing Oscar contender has been coming up dry everywhere so far.

WAR HORSE:  LOSER  Yes, even with a Picture nomination.  The snub of Spielberg for director, apart from being a reminder of the bad old days when Jaws and The Color Purple could receive Oscar nominations while Spielberg was excluded, strongly suggests that War Horse isn't in the top rank of nominees.

THE TREE OF LIFE:  LOSER - One might have thought that the international sensibility of the Globes would lend itself to Terence Malick's hugely ambitious, equal parts brilliant and pretentious epic.  But one would be wrong, as Tree couldn't manage a single nomination.

THE IDES OF MARCH:  WINNER - George Clooney's mixed-bag political drama had been largely ignored thus far, but the Globes went for it in a big way, with nominations for Picture, Director, Actor (Ryan Gosling) and Screenplay.  Which leads us to...

RYAN GOSLING:  WINNER - Nominated not just for Ides, but in the Comedy/Musical Actor category for Crazy Stupid Love.  But--

CRAZY STUPID LOVE:  LOSER - Despite some of the best reviews of any comedy this year, Gosling's was its only nomination.

MONEYBALL:  WINNER:  Was in danger of being relegated to the acting and script categories, but its Picture nomination puts it back in the big-boy conversation.  (Bennett Miller's absence from the Director nominees, though, means it may not have much chance to win.)

GLENN CLOSE:  WINNER - Nearly fell out of the Best Actress race entirely for a minute there, but although she's clearly a notch below the Streep-Williams-Davis trio of favorites, at least she's back in the running.

MELISSA MCCARTHY:  LOSER - She's been the darling of critics' groups, but didn't make the cut here.  It's worth noting that 8 of the 10 Supporting Actor/Actress nominees are from Dramas rather than Comedy/Musicals, the only exceptions being Berenice Bejo from The Artist and Kenneth Branagh from My Week With Marilyn, both so clearly classy they transcend mere "comedy."

ROONEY MARA:  WINNER - The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo hasn't been much in the mix so far, but Mara gets her foot in the door for an Oscar Actress nomination.  

MADONNA/THE PAPARAZZI:  WINNERS - The Globes have never been shy about nominating celebrities so they'll show up at the awards and get some attention, and if it takes giving 2 music/song nominations to the dreadful W.E. to get Madonna to the party... so be it. 

Coming Soon:  The TV Nominees

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STATUETTE STAKES: NY Film Critics Kick Off Awards Season

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The New York Film Critics Circle famously (notoriously?), having decided that they simply couldn't wait to announce their 2011 awards until, y'know, they had actually seen all the movies (when Warners couldn't rush them a copy of Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close--which doesn't open until December 25--the Circle simply ignored it), has made its late-November proclamations.  After the break, the winners and some thoughts:

Best Picture:  THE ARTIST  It's Oscar time, and that means Harvey Weinstein.  The Artist, with its admirable mix of craft and movie love, has a chance of overwhelming the critical establishment, and while that's no guarantee of Oscar glory (remember The Social Network), it certainly could make for a frontrunner.  Awards like this will also help the picture be seen by a more mainstream audience, which in turn doesn't hurt with the Academy.

Best Director:  Michel Hazanavicius, THE ARTIST  Ditto.

Best Actor:  Brad Pitt, MONEYBALL and THE TREE OF LIFE  Pitt (and Jessica Chastain below) benefit from the fact that critics groups base their awards on a year's body of work rather than for a single film.  Having 2 well-regarded pictures in one calendar year is a big boost.  Also, the fact that there's no tremendous favorite in this category could give Pitt the best chance of his career thus far for a victory.  (Which would probably be for Moneyball.)

Best Actress:  Meryl Streep, THE IRON LADY This race has seemed to narrow quickly to Streep vs Michelle Williams (and possibly Viola Davis), and the first volley goes to The Great One.  Big loser here is Glenn Close, whose Albert Nobbs is currently under the radar and may stay there.

Best Supporting Actor:  Albert Brooks, DRIVE  That perfect combination of a talent that richly deserves reward for decades of superb work with a role that genuinely surprised everyone (and in which he was remarkable ).  Christopher Plummer in Beginners seems to be his main competition.

Best Supporting Actress:  Jessica Chastain, THE TREE OF LIFE, TAKE SHELTER and THE HELP  The It Girl of 2011, and this list of movies doesn't even include her excellent turns in The Debt, Texas Killing Fields or Coriolanus.  The Oscar question is whether so many fine performances will fracture her chances of actually winning.

Best Screenplay:  Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian, MONEYBALL  There aren't writers in Hollywood more A-list than these two, and in Moneyball they successfully brought to the screen a piece of source material as unpromising as anything out there.

Best Foreign-Language Film:  A SEPARATION  Sony Classics isn't opening this Iranian drama until the very end of December, but it's been making the rounds of film festivals for months.

Best Cinematography:  Emmanuel Lubezki, THE TREE OF LIFE  Even people who gave up on the movie had to bow their heads at the spectacular look of the film. 

Best Nonfiction Film:  CAVE OF FORGOTTEN DREAMS  Werner Herzog is a figure beloved by critics, and Cave was a film where his fascinations melded beautifully with the subject matter.  Also impressive as one of the first documentaries to make truly effective use of 3D.

Best First Feature:  MARGIN CALL  Yay, NYFCC!  One of the year's very best pictures--first or otherwise--gets a shout-out that will hopefully keep it alive down the awards season trail.


 

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THE BIJOU: Early Weekend Boxoffice

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It's anyone's guess who's going to walk away with this weekend's title, and probably the winner won't be clear until actual grosses are reported on Monday.  Deadline has updated numbers, and reports that REAL STEEL is in position to squeeze ahead of FOOTLOOSE for the weekend, due to an unimpressive 10% Saturday bump for Footloose.  If true, that will be a reflection of the front-loaded nature of most movies aimed primarily at the teen girl audience.


The rest of the results are pretty much as Friday's numbers indicated.  THE THING is headed for $8.5M, which would be dismal if "dismal" weren't truly defined by the $3.2M earned by THE BIG YEAR.  Holdovers were much stronger, with THE IDES OF MARCH, MONEYBALL and DOLPHIN TALE all declining around 30%, and 50/50 holding even better than that.  

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY for more updated boxoffice and analysis all weekend.

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THE STATUETTE STAKES: The Contenders (Part 2)

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Today, we return to SHOWBUZZDAILY's coverage of the Oscar race (see Part 1 here, with an introduction to those contenders best called the Field--these may not be the favorites, but even as longer shots they're still in the race.

FIELD

YOUNG ADULT (Paramount - Dec. 9)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  3/1
Bookie odds to win:  33/1

Good Bet:  From Jason Reitman, whose Up In the Air probably should have won the last time around.  Although it hasn't officially been screened, people have been seeing it, and there's enormous buzz around the script and Charlize Theron's performance in the lead.

Bad Bet:  No one defines "backlash" these days better than screenwriter Diablo Cody post-Juno.  Reitman annoyed some of the industry with the treatment of the other credited screenwriter on Air.  The film could easily be relegated to the Best Actress category alone.

THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO (Sony - Dec. 21)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  4/1
Bookie odds to win:  12/1

Good Bet:  Sony will be citing The Silence of the Lambs endlessly on this one--a violent bestseller that won it all.  The trailer looks sensational.  After Social Network, David Fincher is owed.

Bad Bet:  Silence was 20 years ago, and the Academy doesn't normally go for hard-R violence.  Spielberg had to wait almost 20 years for his Oscar, and Scorsese's wait was roughly 30; who told Fincher he was on the express bus?

THE TREE OF LIFE (Fox Searchlight - Released May 27)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  5/1
Bookie odds to win:  14/1

Good Bet:  Terence Malick is as revered as any contemporary filmmaker, and quite a few people consider this a masterpiece.

Bad Bet:  A lot of other people it's bloated and overrated.  Malick doesn't do Oscar campaigns, and Brad Pitt will be pushing for Moneyball.  Searchlight will be spending the bulk of its efforts on The Descendants and Shame, which will be in the midst of their theatrical runs, rather than a film already on homevideo.

TINKER, TAILOR, SOLDIER, SPY (Focus - Dec. 9)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  11/2
Bookie odds to win:  7/1

Good Bet:  A serious, smart thriller with a superb cast, based on one of the most acclaimed spy novels ever written.  Lots of critical acclaim when it screened in Venice.

Bad Bet:  Everyone (well, everyone in the Academy) remembers Alec Guinness in the BBC miniseries, and that's a tough comparison.  Will Oscar voters be able to follow the story?

THE IRON LADY (Weinstein - Dec. 16)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated: 6/1
Bookie odds to win:  18/1

Good Bet:  Meryl Streep as Margaret Thatcher.  And enough time has gone by since her last win that she's owed, damn it.

Bad Bet:  From the director of Mamma Mia!  And why didn't Harvey Weinstein show it at any of the fall film festivals?  Harvey Watch says that he's favoring The Artist and My Week With Marilyn.

MONEYBALL (Sony - Released Sept. 23)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:7/1
Bookie odds to win:  14/1

Good Bet:  95% approval on Rotten Tomatoes, $54M in the bank (and still counting) and all for a movie no one thought could even be made.  Brad Pitt in a career-best performance. 

Bad Bet: Comparisons to The Social Network are unfair, but... it's not The Social Network.  It'll be out of the zeitgeist by the time all the shiny new holiday season movies arrive.  Is Pitt's performance showy enough to garner awards?

CARNAGE (Sony Classics - Dec. 16)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  8/1
Bookie odds to win:  33/1

Good Bet:  Tony Award winning play, all-star cast, Oscar-winning director.

Bad Bet:  Polanski isn't winning a second Oscar, at least not for an 81-minute filmed play.  Film festival reviews have been mixed so far.

HUGO (Paramount - Nov. 23)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  9/1
Bookie odds to win:  24/1

Good Bet:  Scorsese.  In 3D, no less!  And so classy that the New York Film Festival showed it as a surprise work-in-progress for the first time ever.  (Shhh... pay no attention to the family movie ad campaign, it's really about film preservation.)

Bad Bet:  Scorsese or not, it's a kids movie, and opening against heavy competition over Thanksgiving (The Muppets and Arthur Christmas on the family side; The Artist, A Dangerous Method and My Week With Marilyn on the serious end).  It may get squeezed out.

A DANGEROUS METHOD (Sony Classics - Nov. 23)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  10/1
Bookie odds to win:  25/1

Good Bet:  A supremely classy historical story (Freud and Jung), very fine actors in Michael Fassbinder, Viggo Mortensen and Keira Knightley, and David Cronenberg is the kind of director who no one ever realizes was owed an Oscar until he has one.  Sony Pictures Classics knows how to sell a picture like this better than anyone,

Bad Bet:  Film festival verdict was that it's intelligent and well-acted all right, but also dry and talky.

TOMORROW:  The Also Eligible.
 

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THE BIJOU: Friday Boxoffice Footnotes - October 15

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FOOTLOOSE has the advantage of facing no new direct competition on Friday.  That, along with what should be fairly good word of mouth, could give it some legs in the marketplace.  THE THING, on the other hand, had a make-or-break weekend this week with PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3 about to hit, and it's not going to do much better than DREAM HOUSE did 2 weeks ago.


THE BIG YEAR is far from an art-house curiosity--it's a (supposedly) commercial mainstream comedy, and yet it's going to go in the books as one of the lowest-grossing big-studio movies of the entire year.  It's astounding that the combined names of Steve Martin, Jack Black and Owen Wilson couldn't even get this to the level of "mediocre."

REAL STEEL had a very decent hold (the weekend title this week will boil down to today's battle for the Saturday matinee audience), but its important number will be the international gross tomorrow, since it has no chance of breaking even without a strong overseas performance.

THE IDES OF MARCH and 50/50 are models of how producers can make relatively serious movies on reasonable (i.e., low) budgets and--despite marginal international appeal--have a chance at seeing profit.  (MONEYBALL, which cost more than double the two of them combined, is more problematic.)  Of course, it helps that word of mouth on both pictures is obviously exceptional, with 50/50 getting The Help-level retention at a drop of only 25% from last week, and Ides not much worse.

In limited release, the unquestionable highlight is Pedro Almodovar's strange, compelling thriller THE SKIN I LIVE IN (don't let anyone tell you the 2d-act secret).  It's going to do a terrific $37K or so in each of 6 theatres, and has a chance of finding a wider audience.  The long-delayed FIREFLIES IN THE GARDEN could do an OK $6500 in each of 5, while TEXAS KILLING FIELDS is headed for a blah $3500 in each of 3.

Next weekend is all about Paranormal Activity 3, which will be aiming at the $40M earned by Paranormal 2 in its debut.  The 3D THREE MUSKETEERS and JOHNNY ENGLISH REBORN will be much less of a factor.  

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THE BIJOU: Early Friday Boxoffice

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What was expected to be a slow weekend at the boxoffice is proving to be exactly that.  The Hollywood Reporter has preliminary numbers for Friday, and they show FOOTLOOSE in the lead with $5.5M, heading for probably $17M or so for the weekend.  THE THING is way behind, with $3.5M for Friday that may not even bring it to $10M by Sunday, but those are blockbuster numbers compared to the woefully mistitled THE BIG YEAR, an utter disaster with $1.2M on Friday that may mean a $3M weekend.  


As is often the case when new releases fail to excite audiences, the holdovers are doing quite well.  REAL STEEL's second weekend decline should be in the low 40% range, and the movie should be right behind Footloose for the weekend with around $16M, while THE IDES OF MARCH may go down less than 30% for a $7.5M weekend.  DOLPHIN TALE and MONEYBALL may also decline around 30%, while 50/50 seems to be headed for a superb hold, down only around 20% from last week.  

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis.

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THE BIJOU: Weekend Boxoffice Footnotes - October 9

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REAL STEEL had a nice Saturday bump of 27%, but that's far lower than the 40% it was initially claiming (and only 4% higher than the one for Ides of March, which is decidedly not a family matinee movie).  The picture could benefit, though, from some additional matinee business on Columbus Day tomorrow.  Also helping out is the limited competition it'll face over the next couple of weeks, with Footloose aiming at a slightly older audience and Johnny English Reborn and The Three Musketeers not likely to be major boxoffice factors.  (That good luck runs out on October 28, when Puss in Boots opens.)  Still, the picture is unlikely to reach 9 figures in the US, which means its ultimate success will rest on overseas business.  The movie is rolling out gradually worldwide, and started with a good $22M this weekend in 19 territories, only 3 of which are major (Russia, Mexico and Australia).  


Even though they're in different genres, THE IDES OF MARCH will have competition next weekend from The Big Year for the older audience.  Since international markets aren't likely to be very interested in a story of US politics, the film will need to linger in domestic theatres for several weeks in order to hit a profit.

DOLPHIN TALE and MONEYBALL may end up in more or less the same place with their final US grosses (Moneyball making up midweek what it loses to Dolphin on the weekends), but Dolphin is in far better shape financially, as it cost about 25% less to produce (and probably also somewhat less to market), and has a brighter outlook internationally thanks to the overseas romance with 3D family movies. 

Cinemascoristas, please note:  the much-vaunted, "rarely-given" A+ rating that COURAGEOUS won bought it a thoroughly routine 50% drop in its second weekend, far less impressive than 50/50's and not even as good as the holds for the mostly-reviled DREAM HOUSE and WHAT'S YOUR NUMBER?  As of now, it doesn't appear the movie will even reach the $33M total that its faith-based stablemate Fireproof did last year.

In limited release, one has to give a little revolted credit to THE HUMAN CENTIPEDE, which managed $3K in each of 18 theatres playing only midnight shows.  That's better than DIRTY GIRL will average at 9 playing a full schedule.  THE WAY did an OK $4K in each of 33, as did THE WOMEN ON THE SIXTH FLOOR in each of 6.  It wasn't a good weekend for expansions, as MACHINE GUN PREACHER fell to a $1200 average in each of 93, WEEKEND to $4K in each of 14, and TAKE SHELTER to $5K in each of 11.  

Next week THE THING will try to steal a weekend before PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3 takes over the Halloween market the following week, but the interesting one to watch will be FOOTLOOSE, which is getting some surprisingly good reviews.  It'll  try to prove it can find an audience among a target group that couldn't name a single degree of Kevin Bacon. 

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WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES October 7-9

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Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), Real Steel is now looking like an opening weekend of over $27 million -- $2 million more than projected yesterday.  Real Steel jumped 27% from Friday to Saturday (from $8.55 million to $10.85 million).  With a projected final domestic gross of $81 million, this film is going to have to hit massively overseas to make DreamWorks and Disney money.  (International numbers to come later today.)  The Ides of March should be headed for around $40 million domestic final, based on an opening weekend of a little over $10 million.  This weekend is looking like it will be up 4% up over the same weekend last year.      

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the openers are headed for:  Real Steel ($81 million) and The Ides of March ($40 million). 

50/50 is holding steady at $35 million, while Courageous has been downgraded a bit to $24 million and Dream House has been upped a tick to $18 million.  What's Your Number? is headed for a similar $15 million.  Moneyball is headed for $74 million, while Dolphin Tale was downgraded again to $74 million.  The Lion King in 3D has been downgraded again to a still fine $104 million.               


Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, Real Steel will average $7,900 per theater (an above average mark) at 3,440 theaters (for $27.3 million from Friday-Sunday). The Ides of March will open with a surprisingly soft $4,700 per theater (somewhat below average) at only 2,199 theaters ($10.4 million).    

As expected, the second week decline for 50/50 (-34%) was far better than the Courageous decline (-50%), but both films will run out of steam very quickly as they are working with low bases of appeal.        


October 7-9, 2011                   Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 
Real Steel             (DW/Dis)     $27.3             $ 81
Ides of March            (Sony)     $10.4             $ 40
Dolphin Tale               (WB)     $ 9.2   -34%      $ 74-
Moneyball                (Sony)     $ 7.5   -38%      $ 74
50/50                  (Summit)     $ 5.5   -36%      $ 35
Courageous               (Sony)     $ 4.6   -50%      $ 24
Dream House               (Uni)     $ 4.5   -45%      $ 18
The Lion King in 3D       (Dis)     $ 4.5   -57%      $104-
What's Your Number?       (Fox)     $ 3.1   -44%      $ 15
Abduction                  (LG)     $ 2.9   -48%      $ 26
Contagion                  (WB)     $ 2.8   -42%      $ 78

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $84 million total, up 4% from the same calendar weekend last year (when Life As We Know It and Secretariat opened) but down 3% from the average weekend the last four years.     

Top 12 Films: Weekend #40
     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011  $ 84  Real Steel $27, Ides of March $10
2010  $ 81  Life As We Know It $15, Secretariat $13    
2009  $ 96  Couples Retreat $34
2008  $ 87  Quarantine $14, Body of Lies $13
2007  $ 84  TP Why Did I Get Married $21, We Own the Night $11
2007-10
Avg   $ 87  

Next Weekend

Opening next week are Footloose from Paramount (please stop the remakes!), The Thing from Universal (again!) and The Big Year from Fox (comedy starring Jack Black, Steve Martin and Owen Wilson).  Those movies will be compared to Jackass 3-D ($50.4 million opening weekend) and Red ($21.8 million). 

International numbers will be posted as soon as possible, and Monday we will have official numbers for the Friday-Sunday domestic grosses.

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