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THE BIJOU: Early Weekend Boxoffice


Deadline has some early updated weekend numbers, and there are no major surprises from the Friday results.  The top 3 are DOLPHIN TALE, MONEYBALL and THE LION KING with $14M, $12M and $11M respectively, with the family pictures garnering the benefit of stepped-up Saturday matinee business.  


After that, 3 new titles--50/50, COURAGEOUS and DREAM HOUSE--are bunched together between $8.7-9M, meaning their actual rank won't be clear until Monday's actuals are annonced.  Courageous was the most front-loaded with Friday business, which is no surprise given the nature of its appeal, nor is the fact that 50/50 had strong word of mouth on its second day; what's odd is that Dream House seems to have also done well on Saturday, despite how bad it is.

In the third echelon, holdovers ABDUCTION, CONTAGION and KILLER ELITE, as well as the new WHAT'S YOUR NUMBER? are all between $4.8-5.7M, representing indifferent holds for Abduction and Killer Elite, nice continued business for Contagion, and a wretched start for the Anna Faris vehicle.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY for more detailed numbers and analysis as additional boxoffice figures become available.

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THE BIJOU: Friday Boxoffice Footnotes


THE SOCIAL NETWORK fell only 31% in its second weekend, so MONEYBALL, which is headed for a fall closer to 40% (after a lower opening), continues not to be in Network's league financially.  The timing of a movie like this is tricky, because if it's out of theatres when the awards discussions start to become serious, it can lose momentum, and that's the danger for Moneyball.  (It will also face direct competition--from Sony, its own studio--next week from THE IDES OF MARCH.)

Summit spent a lot of time and effort trying to get people into 50/50 (Seth Rogen, who's a producer as well as star of the film, seemed to be interviewed everywhere), and with good reason, because it's an excellent movie.  Audiences who showed up seem to get it--to the extent Cinemascore means anything, 50/50 received an A- grade--but selling a comedy about cancer is just a tough nut to crack.  



DOLPHIN TALE is benefitting from the fact that it's actually a pretty decent family movie, but it faces competition next weekend from Real Steel (although Dolphin is by far the better picture).  To no one's surprise, Disney held LION KING in theatres even though the blu-ray is being released on Tuesday; it'll be interesting to see whether all these boxoffice dollars will help or hurt the video sales.

COURAGEOUS proves once again that the church audience is eager to be roused by movie marketing, and while the movie is unlikely to get any kind of crossover attention, it'll be quite profitable due to its limited budget and marketing costs.  (The movie's "A+" from Cinemascore is fairly meaningless, since the people they polled are exactly the people most likely to adore it.)

On the "disaster" side of the ledger, the producers of DREAM HOUSE took the movie away from its director Jim Sheridan, and that led to Sheridan and stars Daniel Craig, Rachel Weisz and Naomi Watts largely refusing to do any publicity for the film--which led to Universal not screening it for critics.  The result is a fairly expensive movie (which is indeed lousy, at least in its non-director's-cut form) that's looking at red ink.  Also, the discussion on whether Anna Faris is a "star" can end--she's not.  I liked WHAT'S YOUR NUMBER? far more than most (at the very least, it doesn't compare badly to most of Katherine Heigl's output), but no one out there is buying a ticket to see Faris, no matter how talented she is.

In limited release, TAKE SHELTER is headed for a heartening $17.5K at each of 3 theatres, but it's a troubling movie that is likely to have a hard time attracting a mainstream audience.  Fans of car wrecks showed up for MARGARET to the tune of around $3500 in each of 2--that's the movie that sat on the shelf for 6 years while its director and producers fought about the editing.  And MACHINE GUN PREACHER expanded from 4 theatres to 33; without the cushion of Q&As with the stars, its per-theatre gross dropped sharply to around $3K. 

Next weekend brings one movie looking for a massive audience (REAL STEEL) and one that would be satisfied with more modest returns and some awards attention (THE IDES OF MARCH).  An early word of advice:  go with the humans.

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THE SKED: Friday Ratings - Network Scorecard


It being a Friday, not a single show on network television could even manage a 2 rating in 18-49s.  Even within that narrow radius, though, there was room to be a loser.

CBS:  A GIFTED MAN (see our Pilot + 1 Review) had little room to fall after a blah debut, and now it has none at all:  its 14% drop from the premiere isn't a bad retention, but its 1.2 rating is considerably lower than anything else on the network's Friday, and although the show easily wins the timeslot with older viewers, it may be doomed if it drops any lower.  BLUE BLOODS and CSI:  NY held up the flag for original scripted programming on Fridays.


FOX:  FRINGE's 1.2 was a bad 20% drop from the season premiere, and the show is again stepping dangerously close to the area where FOX will finally give up on it.

NBC:  The network again went the promo route in the night's first hour, repeating UP ALL NIGHT and WHITNEY to negligible results.  DATELINE was down considerably from last week, but still pulled a decent number for 2 hours.

ABC:  Promo runs of MODERN FAMILY, SUBURGATORY and PAN AM at least hit a 1.0 or more, but of course those shows were more successful than NBC's to begin with.  With a weaker Dateline as competition, 20/20 even edged up a bit.

CW:  NIKITA and SUPERNATURAL were pretty much stable with last week, which this network will count as a win.

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The Sked: FRIDAY RATINGS September 30

CBS narrowly won the second Friday of the season with a 1.5 Adult 18-49 rating (each of the three scripted programs was down 0.2 from premiere week), while NBC and FOX followed closely with a 1.4 rating, fueled by lower cost unscripted fare.  Dateline averaged a 1.6 over two hours and peaked at a 1.9 from 10:30-11:00, tying it with Blue Bloods in the lead-in to late local news.  Of most concern to CBS is the 8 pm entry A Gifted Man, which is already down to a 1.2 (hitting our ShowBuzzDaily fall ratings forecast).


Now 12 days into the fall season, FOX leads with a 3.29 rating, followed by CBS at a 3.12.  ABC is in third with a 2.66, and NBC trails at a 2.27.  The CW averages a 0.76 season to date. 

FRIDAY FALL 2011    Estimates         Episode Rating     
                    May   Sep   #1   #2   #3   #4   #5   #6   Avg
ABC
 800 Extreme Makeov 1.4   1.4   

 900 Shark Tank     1.4   1.3   
1000 20/20          1.5   1.3   1.0  1.2
CBS
 800 A Gifted Man   1.1   1.2   1.4  1.2
 900 CSI New York   1.5   1.5   1.8  1.6
1000 Blue Bloods    1.6   1.6   2.0  1.8
NBC
 800 Chuck          1.2   1.2   10/28
 900 Grimm          1.2   1.2   10/28
1000 Dateline NBC   1.2   1.3   2.0  1.6
FOX
 800 Kitchen Nightm 1.5   1.5   1.6  1.6   
 900 Fringe         1.3   1.3   1.5  1.2
CW
 800 Nikita         n/a   n/a   0.6  0.6
 900 Supernatural   n/a   n/a   0.8  0.7


An important note:  the ratings estimates are for original episodes across the entire Fall (from mid-September through mid-December).  Generally, a series will premiere at a high level and then settle into a more normal number by week four-six.  The important number to look at as the season unfolds is the average-to-date column at the far right.  By the time episode four rolls around, look at the average of episodes one-four and you should have a pretty good idea how the fall -- and the entire season -- will sort out.  CW shows are not currently estimated because we have incomplete historical data for the network's time periods.  CW estimates should be available later this season or early next season. 

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FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 30 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

This weekend is all about the holdovers.  It looks like Dolphin Tale and Moneyball will lead the way this weekend, followed closely by The Lion King in 3D.  Courageous and 50/50 look like they will be the strongest of the four openers, while the poorly reviewed Dream House and What's Your Number? trail.  Business is decent for early October:  the top 12 films should hit $91 million, up 5% over the same weekend last year.

Courageous is opening above forecast ($3.1 million Friday for an expected $9.3 million this weekend versus a $7 million forecast). The Christian-themed drama is headed for $29 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate.  International numbers for all recent films will be in our overseas round-up late Sunday.  Very few reviews are in for this movie, but the limited opinion is mixed (50% positive at RottenTomatoes). 


50/50 is also opening below forecast ($2.9 million Friday for an estimated $8.4 million opening weekend, compared to a $10.5 million prediction).  The serious comedy starring Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Seth Rogen is on track for $35 million in North America.  Critics nationwide also have been extremely supportive (92% positive at RottenTomatoes). 

Dream House is opening slightly below forecast ($2.9 million Friday for an expected $7.8 million this weekend versus a $9 million forecast).  The movie is headed for $15 million in North America.  Critics nationwide have been nearly universally negative about this horror-thriller starring Daniel Craig (a meager 7% positive so far).       

What's Your Number? is also opening well below forecast ($2.0 million Friday for an expected $5.5 million this weekend versus an $8 million forecast).  The movie is headed for $15 million in North America.  Critics have been negative for this Anna Faris comedy (22% positive so far).      

In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
.     

Dolphin Tale looks like it will be down only 23% from its opening weekend, enough for #1 this weekend against the weak quartet of openers.  Moneyball should be down 37%, but its final gross will be very close to Dolphin Tale's thanks to strong older-skewing midweek business (and it will push past the family film if Moneyball sees any awards love).  

  
Sep 30-Oct 2, 2011      Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early   Friday  Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final*

Dolphin Tale (WB)        [$13.5]    $14.7   $ 3.5     $ 80
Moneyball (Sony)         [$12.5]    $12.2   $ 3.9     $ 75+

Lion King in 3D (Dis)    [$12.5]    $11.8   $ 3.3     $120
Courageous (Sony)        [$ 7  ]    $ 9.3   $ 3.1     $ 29
50/50 (Summit)           [$10.5]    $ 8.4   $ 2.9     $ 35
Dream House (Uni)        [$ 9  ]    $ 7.8   $ 2.9     $ 15
What's Your Number (Fox) [$ 8  ]    $ 5.5   $ 2.0     $ 15
Abduction (LG)           [$ 5  ]    $ 5.6   $ 1.7     $ 28

Killer Elite (OpenRoad)  [$ 5  ]    $ 4.8   $ 1.5     $ 26
Contagion (WB)           [$ 5  ]    $ 4.8   $ 1.5     $ 79



Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade. 


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $91 million total, up 5% from the same calendar weekend last year when The Social Network opened wide.     

Top 12 Films: Weekend #39
     Volume     (millions)

2011  $ 91  (
+7% vs 2007-10 average; +5% vs 2010) 


2007-10

Avg   $ 85            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $ 86  Social Network $22, Case 39 $5, Let Me In $5    

2009  $ 92  Zombieland $25, Toy Story 3D $12, Invention Lying $7

2008  $ 95  Beverly Hills Chihuahua $29, Nick & Norah's... $11
2007  $ 67  Heartbreak Kid $14, The Seeker: Dark Rising $4

 



Next Weekend


Opening next week are The Ides of March from Sony (George Clooney-Ryan Gosling thriller) and Real Steel from Disney (Hugh Jackman action drama).  Those movies will be compared to Life As We Know It ($14.5 million opening weekend), Secretariat ($12.7 million), and My Soul to Take ($6.8 million). 

Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.  

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THE BIJOU: Early Boxoffice Report


Deadline has updated early Friday numbers, and it's looking like another too-close-to-call weekend:  all the movies in the Top 5--MONEYBALL, THE LION KING, DOLPHIN TALE, COURAGEOUS and 50/50--have Friday grosses between $3.2-3.8M.  Courageous is probably the most front-loaded, due to its focused church-based audience (although it's per-theatre number will be very impressive), and while 50/50 should have good word of mouth and a higher multiple, it's still unlikely to have the Saturday bump of the holdovers.  Dolphin Tale is considered to have the best chance to narrowly take the weekend, as it seems to be heading for only a 30% Week 2 decline, better than Moneyball's (which itself should only go down around 40%, an excellent hold).  But it could still work out otherwise.  


DREAM HOUSE wasn't too far behind the leaders on Friday, but will probably have a terrible weekend multiple and end up with $7M or so for the weekend, while WHAT'S YOUR NUMBER? appears to be a complete disaster, headed for not much more than $5M for the weekend.  Last weekend's also-rans ABDUCTION and KILLER ELITE should both see 50% drops.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis.

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THE SKED"S PILOT + 1 REVIEW: "A Gifted Man"


A lot can happen between the creation of a TV pilot in the spring and production of episodes for the regular season:  a writing/producing team is hired, audience focus groups weigh in, networks and studios (which may have had their own turnover in the off-season) give plenty of notes, both helpful and otherwise, and critics begin to rear their ugly heads.  The results can include changes to tone, pace, casting and even story.  Here at THE SKED, we're going to look past the pilots and present reviews of the first regular episodes of this year's new series as well.

Previously... on A GIFTED MAN:  Dr. Michael Holt (Patrick Wilson) is a brilliant, prosperous and narcissistic New York neurosurgeon.  One day he runs into his ex-wife Anna (Jennifer Ehle), who he hasn't seen in years, and they talk at length about her new job as Medical Director for a free clinic.  Soon after, Michael is shocked to discover that Anna had been dead for 2 weeks when they had their reunion, and in fact he's being haunted by her ghost.  A very demanding ghost, too, who keeps reappearing to insist that Michael rediscover his better instincts and help the poor at her clinic--which, reluctantly, he begins to do.  

Episode 2:  The series has had a bit of shuffling since the original pilot:  the character of Michael's down-to-earth sister (Julie Benz) has vanished, although the word is that she may recur every so often.  Meanwhile, the healer Michael visited in the pilot to have Anna removed from his life has been made a regular, played by the very hard-working Pablo Schreiber, who in the past year has been cornering the market on NY-produced shows, with roles on Lights Out, The Good Wife, Weeds and now this.


The big question, though, after the Gifted Man pilot was how the series would balance the three main elements of its story:  the patients at Michael's fancy uptown practice, his new unofficial post at Anna's clinic, and the Blithe Spirit scenes of his haunting by Anna.  The answer seems to be that he'll do an awful lot of commuting.  

The first regular series episode, written by Executive Producer/Showrunner Neal Baer and Daniel Truly and directed by Jonathan Kaplan, is much more a conventional medical series than one about the supernatural, as Michael shuttles back and forth every few minutes between his office and the clinic.  Uptown, there's the case of an old friend's wife who finds out in quick succession that she's unexpectedly pregnant with her first child and has a massive brain tumor--she can't have needed chemo treatments while pregnant, so does she lose the baby to save her own life?  Meanwhile, at the clinic, a lovable little Haitian immigrant boy is diagnosed with sickle-cell anemia, and the resulting tests prove that his single father isn't actually his biological dad at all.  Both plots are resolved in the most sentimental way possible, as the pregnant woman's tumor hemorrhages and Michael manages to save both her and her premature child, and urged by Anna's ghost, Michael convinces the boy's father to take his son back no matter what the biological facts might be.

When A Gifted Man is telling stories like this, there's nothing very interesting about it at all.  And the dynamic between Michael and ghostly Anna is so far one of sheer repetition, with Michael resisting doing the right thing because it's too much effort for no financial return, and Anna shaming him into doing it anyway.  Playing a begrudging hero is blanding Patrick Wilson out and makes Jennifer Ehle seem downright smug; there's an attempt to liven things up with smaller, more colorful roles played by Rhys Coiro and Raul Esparza, as well as Schreiber, but despite the excellent casting (Margo Martindale, who just won a titanically deserved Emmy for her work on Justified, is also around as Michael's assistant), the center of the show is far too flat and tame.  

A Gifted Man didn't do much in the ratings on its debut, and with this content, it's hard to see how it's going to win wider audiences over. By choosing to be the safest version of itself, it's responsible for putting itself in the TV ER.

Original Verdict:  If Nothing Else Is On...

Pilot + 1:  And Only If You're Desperate For a Medical Show

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