Through Sunday, worldwide box office results show that The Smurfs have moved up to #10 among 2011 releases (out of 88 wide-release films this year to date). Rise of the Planet of the Apes is now at #12, about $70 million behind The Smurfs. Although Rise will out-gross Smurfs domestically, the little blue guys are doing much better overseas. No other recent film is making an appearance in the Top 25. The Help might crack in the bottom of the chart, around #24 or #25, but to do so it will have to demonstrate international appeal, which I doubt is there.
Each grouping in the Top 25 shows an interesting pattern on the way to box office success. The films in the Top 5 average about $940 million worldwide, with $270 million coming from North America and $670 from overseas. That's a 2.5 overseas multiple. Think about that: $2.50 overseas for every $1 here. Just one of those "Cash Cow" films makes the difference between a good and a bad year.
Distribution of 2011 Films ($ millions)
Worldwide Domestic Overseas Overseas
Total Multiple
Cash Cows (6%)
Films 1-5 $939 $270 $670 2.5
Solid Profits (11%)
Films 6-10 $486 $181 $305 1.7
Films 11-15 $304 $156 $148 1.0
Near Breakeven (17%)
Films 16-20 $218 $105 $114 1.1
Films 21-25 $183 $ 99 $ 84 0.8
Films 26-30 $147 $ 85 $ 62 0.7
Money Losers (34%)
Films 31-40 $109 $ 54 $ 55 1.0
Films 41-50 $ 83 $ 44 $ 40 0.9
Films 51-60 $ 60 $ 43 $ 19 0.4
Outright Bombs (32%)
Films 61-70 $ 37 $ 32 $ 5 0.2
Films 71-80 $ 24 $ 20 $ 4 0.2
Films 81+ $ 11 $ 10 $ 1 0.1
The bad news is that only 6% of all wide-release films fit in that mega-hit category, and only 11% of films are "Solidly Profitable" (with overseas multiples between 1.0 and 1.7). Another 17% of films are "Near Breakeven", with two-thirds of all films either "Money Losers" or "Outright Bombs". What a business.
Next week we will take a look at each studios distribution of films in each category.
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