WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS AUGUST 26-28

Keep your helmets on: the studios are about to drop three more bombs in movie theaters this weekend.  A horror movie, an action flick and an adult comedy are being released, and we expect each to gross not much more than $30 million in their entire domestic theatrical run.  Opening weekends should range between $9-12 million.  That will leave #1 open again for The Help.  Much will be made in the press about The Help being #1 for two weeks after a #2 opening, but, really, the #1 ranking is more of a quirk of the calendar and the positively abysmal quality of the competing films.  Weekend ranking is about the least important statistic available.  Remember, Cowboys & Aliens opened at #1 -- just ask anyone at Comcast/ Universal if they are happy with that film's performance.  

Opening at more than 2,400 theaters in North America by FilmDistrict, Don't Be Afraid of the Dark should average a somewhat below par $4,750 per theater (for $11.5 million for Friday-Sunday).  With a small number of reviews posted at RottenTomatoes so far, critical opinion is mixed (56% positive, although not bad for the horror genre).  This film should be on track for around $30 million or less in North America when it leaves theaters.


At about 2,500 theaters, Colombiana from Sony/TriStar should average a crappy $3,900 (for $10 million this weekend).  No reviews yet for this movie, which has not been made available for critics.  This action film featuring Avatar's Zoe Saldana is probably headed for around $30 million or slightly more domestically. 

Opening at only 2,000 theaters from Weinstein, Our Idiot Brother should average $4,730 from Friday-Sunday (for a $9.5 million opening weekend).  Early reviews have been fairly positive at RottenTomatoes (63% positive).  This movie is most likely on track for $25 million in North America.     

                                               (millions)New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
August 26-28                     Positive   Weekend   Total*

Don't Be Afraid Dark FilmDis R      56%      $ 11.5    $ 30
Colombiana             Sony  PG13   n/a      $ 10.0    $ 32
Our Idiot Brother      Wein  R      63%      $  9.5    $ 25

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

The Help should remain #1 thanks to another terrifically low 24% decline and, as noted before, very weak opening competition.  All of the other returning films should below $10 million each this weekend, causing total box office volume to be quite soft this weekend. 

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
August 26-28                    vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*

The Help            DW/Dis        -24%      $15.5     $130
Rise of Planet of Apes Fox        -44%      $ 9       $180
Spy Kids: All Time    Wein        -43%      $ 6.5     $ 30

The Smurfs            Sony        -33%      $ 5       $145
Conan the Barbarian     LG        -56%      $ 4.5     $ 25
Fright Night        DW/Dis        -50%      $ 4.0     $ 25

Final Destination 5     WB        -52%      $ 3.5     $ 45


Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $94 million total, ranking 42nd of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $95 million, and the year before was $110 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like another down weekend at $86 million, down about 10% from this weekend last year.     


This Weekend Last Two Years