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| Three Muppets at a Rehearsal |
Opening at 3,440 theaters in North America by Disney, The Muppets should average a very good $10,250 per theater during the traditional three-day weekend (for $35.0 million for Friday-Sunday and $49 million from Wednesday-Sunday) . (All films the last two years have averaged $5,525 per theater in their opening weekend.) Early reviews are terrific: 98% positive at RottenTomatoes. The film should finish domestically with about $140 million.
With a fairly limited release (1,277 theaters), Hugo from Paramount and Martin Scorcese should average a just okay $6,070 per theater during the three-day weekend ($8.0 million Friday-Sunday and $11 million Wednesday-Sunday). Continuing the trend of quality this weekend, Hugo has received a stellar 96% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes so far. If word of mouth is great and builds just as the theater count expands toward Christmas, Hugo could surprise. But right now it is looking like a $40 million picture domestically.
Who would have thought the next movie from Sideways director Alexander Payne would have the lowest positive review score of the films opening or expanding significantly this weekend? The Descendants (starring George Clooney and filled with Oscar buzz) has 91% positive at RottenTomatoes -- a very good score but lower than the three openers. Moving from 29 to around 500 theaters, The Descendants should average around $8,300 per theater this weekend ($4.2 million from Friday-Sunday and over $7 million since its opening).
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
November 25-27 Positive Weekend Total*
The Muppets Dis PG 98% $35.0 $140
Arthur Christmas Sony PG 94% $17.0 $ 90
Hugo Par PG 96% $ 8.0 $ 40
The Descendants Fox R 91% $ 4.5 $ 26
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 will plummet over 70% this weekend (typical for a very front-loaded Twilight film) but still should have enough in the tank to hold off those annoying Muppets. It should be an interesting race for the top spot -- the Muppets certainly have intense fans but we shall see how wide the base is.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
November 25-27 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Twilight Breaking Dawn 1Sum -71% $39.5 $310
Happy Feet Two WB -11% $19.0 $135
Immortals Rel -38% $ 7.7 $ 91
Puss in Boots DW/Par -17% $ 9.0 $177
Jack and Jill Sony -28% $ 8.5 $ 75
Tower Heist Uni -27% $ 5.2 $ 76
J. Edgar WB -28% $ 4.3 $ 33
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $144 million total, ranking 15th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend's total was $171 million, and the same weekend in 2009 was $175 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like $161 million, down 6% from this weekend last year and up 11% from the four-year average for this weekend.
This Weekend Last Two Years
11/26/10
Tangled DIS PG
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $31 Actual: $49
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $147 Actual: $201
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $390
Burlesque SONY PG13 Christina Aguilera Cher
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $12 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $40 Actual: $39
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $50
Love and Other Drugs FOX R Jake Gyllenhaal Anne Hathaway
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $10 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $36 Actual: $32
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $70
Faster CBS R Billy Bob Thornton Maggie Grace
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $12 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $27 Actual: $23
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $12
11/27/09
Old Dogs DIS PG John Travolta Robin Williams
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $23 Actual: $17
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $43 Actual: $49
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $47
Ninja Assassin WB R
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $13 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $39 Actual: $38
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $24
The Fantastic Mr Fox FOX PG
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $11 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $25 Actual: $21
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $25
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