The fast nationals for Wednesday give Game 1 of the World Series a 3.9 Adult 18-49 rating (yet to be time zone adjusted). Last night we predicted a 3.8 in the fast nationals and a 4.1 in the official nationals. This number keeps it from being the worst Game 1 rating in history...just the second worst.
The second lowest-rated Game 1 in MLB history will be enough to give FOX a win on the night, and the performance is on par with an X Factor original episode. At least, FOX isn't forced into the unenviable position of replacing a higher-rated show for the Fall Classic.
ABC's Modern Family takes the crown as the highest rated show of the night (a 5.6 in the fast nationals and probably a 5.7 in the official ratings later today). The other comedies were near their recent levels (The Middle 2.9, Suburgatory 3.1, Happy Endings 3.0), while Revenge dropped back down to a 2.5 (from a 2.7 last week). Given the heavy promotional support Revenge continues to receive, this is probably a bitter pill for ABC to swallow. For the night, ABC averaged a 3.3 rating.
CBS also averaged a 3.3 Wednesday, up one tenth from last week. Survivor (3.3) and Criminal Minds (3.9) were each up one tenth, while CSI (2.6) was flat.
NBC averaged a 1.7 for the night, the same rating the network has turned in for three weeks. Up All Night's birth episode did not pop a number (2.1), and the Whitney repeat (1.2) drifted down two tenths to Harry's Law reliable rating (Jason Alexander guest starring couldn't push Harry's above that 1.2 rating). Another promo note, the spot at the end of Up All Night announcing that Whitney was coming up said "Whitney airs after The Office -- next on NBC". Clearly a recycled spot, the voiceover wasn't changed for Wednesday night. The error certainly didn't cause viewers to flee at 8:30, but it is one of those details that should be done correctly on network television.
The Sked: WEDNESDAY RATINGS October 19
The Sked: The Sad Downward Slide of World Series Ratings
Pity the poor Former National Pastime. In the quarter century that Nielsen has used the PeopleMeter to measure demographic ratings, viewership of the World Series has dropped by more than half in the key advertising sales demographic. From 1987 (the first year demographic ratings came from electronic meters and remote controls rather than a paper diary) through 1993 (the last baseball season before the disastrous strike), Game 1 of the World Series averaged a 10.1 Adult 18-49 rating. In the ten years after the strike (1995-2004), Game 1 averaged a still respectable 7.0 rating. But since 2005 (as players scored fewer runs and hit far fewer home runs without the benefits of steroids), the average Game 1 has turned in a 5.0 rating (far below what a regular season NFL game generates).
Before the Strike that killed the 1994 postseason, it looked like the World Series was relatively bullet-proof. No match-up from 1987-1993 features the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox (remember how lean those years were for those franchises?). The period was riddled with regional pairings (Minnesota-St Louis, LA-Oakland, even two teams from the same market, San Francisco-Oakland). Two of the Series even featured a Canadian team. Even worse, CBS broadcast four Series (1990-1993) with coverage as lame as their Olympic efforts. And yet the lowest Game 1 in this period was an 8.5 rating.
From 1995-2004, the sport embarked on a long downward slide. Game 1 ratings in that decade ranged from a high of 9.3 in 1996 (NY Yankees-Atlanta) to a low of 5.0 in 2002 (Anaheim-San Francisco). It might be tempting to assume that 2002 was ignored because it was too regional, too California and lacking a marquee Northeast team. But note that 2001 (Yankees-Arizona) was not much better: a 5.3 rating. If we look at Game 1 ratings in this period featuring the Yankees or the Red Sox versus Game 1 ratings for Series without these iconic teams, there is only a slight advantage to having New York or Boston involved: a 7.2 average rating with New York or Boston and a 6.8 rating without.
However, in recent years the presence of Boston or New York has saved the sport from utter shame. Since 2005, Game 1 of a Yankees or Red Sox Series has averaged a 6.1 rating (not bad in the DVR era), while Game 1 match-ups without either team have averaged all the way down to a 4.4 rating.
The nadir for Game 1 came in 2006 when the St Louis Cardinals opened against the Detroit Tigers and only mustered a 3.6 rating. This was also the last time Game 1 aired on a Saturday night, the least viewed of the week. Since 2007, the new format places Game 1 on Wednesday (weather permitting, of course). Until the fast nationals Thursday morning give us our first indication of how this year's Game 1 rated (featuring the Texas Rangers at the St Louis Cardinals), take a look at the table below for a complete historical view. I am guessing this year's Game 1 will rate about a 4.1 in the official nationals and around a 3.8 in the fast nationals, just avoiding the "worst ever" title.
THE SKED: Wednesday Ratings - Network Scorecard
ABC: Everything came up fairly rosy last night at the Alphabet. SUBURGATORY should be inches away from a full season pick-up after its third consecutive strong outing, and even better, REVENGE went in the opposite direction from Pan Am, and had a nice bump from last week. That might be partly due to CSI being hurt by the unexpected baseball game at 10PM, but ABC will take it. Combine all that with the stellar MODERN FAMILY number and an impressive increase for HAPPY ENDINGS (which also might be partly attributable to the absence of X Factor on FOX), and it was a pleasant evening at ABC.
THE SKED: Tuesday Ratings - Network Scorecard
THE BIJOU REVIEW: "Moneyball"
Michael Lewis' book Moneyball was a marvelous read, but seemed like dim source material for a movie. Credit, then, is due to the creators of the film version--the various producers, screenwriters Steven Zailian and Aaron Sorkin, and director Bennett Miller--for finding a compelling narrative spine in a true-life story about the change in an industry's way of thinking.