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Showing posts with label midnight in paris. Show all posts
Showing posts with label midnight in paris. Show all posts

OSCAR ODDS for Major Categories -- UPDATED

12:16 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,

Updated Oscar odds confirm a complete snooze is in store for Sunday's Academy Awards as The Artist and director Michel Hazanavicius are heavy favorites to win Best Picture and Best Director, bringing a very French flavor -- and depressed ratings -- to ABC's telecast.  Oscar ratings rise and fall based on the suspense of the major races and especially when a movie is in contention that a mass audience has actually paid to see.  There is virtually no race in the Supporting Actor and Actress categories, although there might be some rooting interest in Best Actor (George Clooney vs Jean Dujardin) and Best Actress (Viola Davis vs Meryl Streep)

The Artist has moved from 1:6 odds in early February to 1:12 now, increasing its implied chances of winning from 72% to over 78%.  A similar trend is seen in the Best Director race (see the updated charts below by clicking "read more").




         ACADEMY AWARDS BETTING ODDS
            averages from easyodds.com


     BEST PICTURE       Feb 20    Feb 8        

     The Artist           1:12     1:6    Even more the favorite
     The Descendants     10:1      6:1    Fading
     Hugo                20:1     14:1    Fading
     The Help            20:1     18:1    Slightly less likely
     War Horse           40:1     26:1    Fading fast
     Midnight in Paris   78:1     55:1    Falling out fast
     Moneyball           80:1     56:1    Falling out fast
     Extremely Loud &    88:1     59:1    Falling out fast
      Incredibly Close  
     The Tree of Life    88:1     73:1    Falling out fast

     BEST DIRECTOR
     Michel Hazanavicius  1:9      1:6    Improving odds
     Martin Scorcese      5:1      4:1    Hanging in there
     Alexander Payne     20:1     13:1    Fading
     Terrence Malick     40:1     37:1    Fading 
     Woody Allen         44:1     35:1    Fading fast

 

The Artist is also showing some late momentum in Best Actor with Jean Dujardin improving from 6:4 odds (about a 33% chance of winning) to 7:10 (about 49%).  George Clooney (in color and with full sound) has faded from 1:2 (about a 55% chance of winning) to 11:10 (about 40%).  This is the only category in which all of the long-shot nominees have a better shot of winning (even Demian Bichir from the $1.8 million grossing A Better Life has gone from 57:1 to 42:1).  

In Best Actress, Viola Davis from The Help is slightly more of a favorite, moving from 5:6 (46% chance) to 4:6 (about 51%).  But don't count out Iron Lady Meryl Streep, who is certainly practicing and perfecting her shocked look (remember the Golden Globes?), holding fairly steady -- 1:1 (42% chance) in early February to 11:10 (40%) now.  The other three nominees in the category have fallen out of the running according to oddsmakers.

         ACADEMY AWARDS BETTING ODDS
            averages from easyodds.com


     BEST ACTOR         Feb 20    Feb 8                     
     Jean Dujardin        7:10     6:4    Moving up to #1 
     George Clooney      11:10     1:2    Moving down to #2

     Brad Pitt           18:1     25:1    Slightly improved
     Gary Oldman         22:1     29:1    Slightly improved
     Demian Bichir       42:1     57:1    Slightly improved

     BEST ACTRESS    
     Viola Davis          4:6      5:6    Improved odds
     Meryl Streep        11:10     1:1    Slightly worse
     Michelle Williams   19:1     14:1    Fading
     Glenn Close         62:1     40:1    Fading fast
     Rooney Mara         64:1     42:1    Fading fast

No significant changes in the Best Supporting Actor and Actress categories.  Congratulations, Mr. Plummer and Ms. Spencer.         

         ACADEMY AWARDS BETTING ODDS
            averages from easyodds.com


     SUPPORTING ACTOR   Feb 20    Feb 8                     

     Christopher Plummer  1:50     1:25   More of a certainty 
     Kenneth Branagh     16:1     18:1    Moving up to distant #2
     Max Von Sydow       20:1      9:1    Fading
     Nick Nolte          39:1     32:1    Fading 
     Jonah Hill          61:1     46:1    Fading fast


     SUPPORTING ACTRESS 
     Octavia Spencer      1:25     1:20   Slightly stronger 
     Berenice Bejo        9:1      9:1    Steady 
     Jessica Chastain    23:1     18:1    Fading
     Melissa McCarthy    44:1     32:1    Fading fast
     Janet McTeer        49:1     33:1    Fading fast

Midnight in Paris remains the one to beat for Best Original Screenplay, edging up from 2:5 (about 60% chance of winning) to 2:7 (66%)  The Artist is still lurking as the most likely to upset Woody Allen, now 5:2 (24% chance) although that is down from 2:1 (28%) earlier in the month.  In Adapted Screenplay, The Descendants has improved from 2:5 (61%) to 1:5 (71% chance).  It seems only Moneyball stands in its way (adapting the wonderful, detailed Michael Lewis book into a character-driven film was quite an achievement), but the odds are now 5:1 (14% chance) from 4:1 (17%) earlier in the month.         

         ACADEMY AWARDS BETTING ODDS
            averages from easyodds.com


     ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Feb 20    Feb 8 
     Midnight in Paris    2:7      2:5    Slightly improved odds 
     The Artist           5:2      2:1    Slightly worse chance 
     Bridesmaids         28:1     23:1    Up from #5 to #3
     A Separation        30:1     19:1    Fading fast
     Margin Call         36:1     19:1    Fading fast


     ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 
     The Descendants      1:5      2:5    Closing the sale 
     Moneyball            5:1      4:1    Relatively steady 
     Hugo                10:1      5:1    Fading
     Tinker Tailor       17:1     14:1    Fading
     Ides of March       38:1     22:1    Fading fast


On to Sunday.



###

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SHOWBUZZDAILY 2011 IN REVIEW: THE TOP 10 FILMS

4:11 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,



See Also:

As a movie year, 2011 felt, more than anything else, like a reflection of an art and a business in disarray.  Economically, it was a down year and for the major studios, a frightening one:  beyond the special case of the Harry Potter  finale, virtually every Hollywood franchise slipped from prior success in the US, saved from barrels of red ink only because overseas audiences embraced them in record-breaking numbers.  Even the technology of "film" was and continues to be in flux:  more and more motion pictures are shot and distributed on high-definition video that's increasingly difficult for viewers to tell from traditional film stock; US audiences are growing tired, for the most part, of inferior 3D; and the dispute over whether motion-capture performance (like Andy Serkis's Caesar in Rise of the Planet of the Apes) constitutes award-worthy "acting" is growing hotter.  Creatively, too, it seemed like the movies were in a holding pattern, waiting to find out what the next exciting wave would be.  Despite all this, there continued to be films worth seeing and commemorating, and here were the best 10 of them:

1.MARGIN CALL:  A group of affluent men (and one woman) sit in conference rooms in the middle of a deserted Wall Street night talking about money in hushed tones, and it's all somehow post-apocalyptic.  Which is accurate, because they’re watching their economic universe, overnight, go poof--and as in any post-apocalyptic story, the real question is who will survive.  J.C. Chandor’s film, as cunningly structured as a thriller, was the writing/directing debut of the year--not a David Mamet retread or a mere financial meltdown docudrama, but a humane, eloquent and ruthlessly smart story about modern capitalism and the way it reflects human nature.  The fact that the Screen Actors Guild didn’t even nominate the actors, headed by Kevin Spacey, Jeremy Irons and producer Zachary Quinto, for Best Ensemble tells you all you’ll ever need to know about the SAG Awards.  

2. SHAME:  Steve McQueen’s NC-17 drama revolved around a sex addict, and certainly wasn’t for everyone.  But  beneath the (unerotic) sex was the story of a brother and sister being torn apart by their own private demons.  McQueen, in complete mastery of the art form, refused to provide easy explanations or a therapeutic happy ending, and Michael Fassbender and Carey Mulligan supplied 2 of the most savagely wrenching performances of the decade. 

3. EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE:  Unaccountably, the most controversial and divisive movie of the year, apparently because it dared to touch, in its apolitical and fictional way, on what turned out to be the third rail of American popular culture:   9/11.  Stephen Daldry’s filmmaking and Eric Roth's script (adapted from Jonathan Safran Foer's novel) superbly balanced sentimentality, quirkiness and profound heartbreak, and the first-time actor Thomas Horn managed to dominate a supporting cast that included Tom Hanks, Sandra Bullock and the extraordinary Max Von Sydow., whose silent performance outshone anything in the insanely overrated The Artist

4. CRAZY, STUPID, LOVE:  Hollywood's most pleasant surprise of the year, a romantic comedy drama that was actually romantic, comic and dramatic—sometimes even all at once.  Glenn Ficarra and John Fuqua nimbly tapdanced the shifting tones of Dan Fogelman’s marvelous script (which also had the year’s best third-act surprise), and the letter-perfect ensemble included Steve Carell, Julianne Moore, Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone, Marisa Tomei and Analeigh Tipton.

5. WIN WIN:  Tom McCarthy writes and directs movies about ordinary human beings with the grace, understanding and complexity of a great American novelist.  Win Win, about the ethical struggles of a high school wrestling coach, was smarter, tougher and yards more perceptive than The Descendants, but since both are distributed by the same studio (Fox Searchlight, also responsible for burying the very fine Margaret), McCarthy's script and the beautiful performances by Paul Giamatti and Amy Ryan (who should be forced—bodily, if necessary—to play a couple at least once every couple of years) are being ignored

6. RANGO:  A strange and wonderful animated movie from director Gore Verbinski, writer John Logan and star/muse Johnny Depp that was like Pixar on acid:  deranged, inspired comedy about spaghetti westerns, heroism, Chinatown, existentialism, the meaning of identity if you're an actual chameleon, and a half-dozen other topics, all populated by crazy-looking reptiles on gorgeous landscapes.

7. MONEYBALL:  Michael Lewis’s book about abstract theories of how a low-spending baseball team remade the rules of drafting and trading for players had no business even being a movie.  But with master screenwriters Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin, director Bennett Miller and a cast headed by the year's most unlikely comedy team, Brad Pitt and Jonah Hill, the result was funny, bracingly intelligent, and often dramatically thrilling.

8. THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO:  Even though audiences were thoroughly familiar with Stieg Larsson's pageturning potboiler and the solid Swedish film adaptation, David Fincher made it his gripping own, with the help of screenwriter Zaillian (again), a breakout performance by Rooney Mara, excellent support from Daniel Craig, Stellan Skarsgard and the rest of the cast, and a fabulously gifted technical crew that included cinematographer Jeff Cronenweth and composers Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross.

9.  MIDNIGHT IN PARIS:  Never, ever count Woody Allen out.  At the age of 75, after more than 40 feature films and widely believed to have outlasted his boxoffice prime, he came back with, if not one of his very best, a richly entertaining and even wise bauble that became the biggest hit of his career (if you don’t adjust for inflation), as breezy and charming as it was clever.

10.  THE HELP:  Tate Taylor’s adaptation of the best-selling novel was no triumph of the filmmaking art, and it’s perfectly fair to criticize the movie's oversimplifications and unapologetic sentimentality.  But months later, it still stands as one of the most engrossing and narratively satisfying dramas of the year , and its cast headed by Viola Davis, Emma Stone, Octavia Spencer, Bryce Dallas Howard and Jessica Chastain couldn’t have been better.

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THE STATUETTE STAKES: The Contenders (Part I)

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While you weren't looking, the Oscar race began.

One could make the argument, of course, that it's been on for months--since, at least, Woody Allen's MIDNIGHT IN PARIS energized the indie/art-film audience and propelled him into mass consciousness for the first time in years.  (On the other hand, one could also argue that this year's Oscar race started roughly the moment the producers of THE KING'S SPEECH stopped saying "Thank you" last February 27.)

Certainly the Oscars have been in the air since the incredibly complicated new voting rules for Best Picture nominations were announced.  As a result of those rules, we won't know until the nominations are actually announced just how many Best Picture nominees there will be--the final number could be anywhere between 5 and 10, because (to simplify brutally) a minimum threshold has to be met for any given film beyond 5 to qualify for a nomination.

Here at SHOWBUZZDAILY we're embracing the concept of the Oscars as a horse-race.  The Academy Awards are enormous fun, but let's face it:  they have a relatively limited amount to do with quality, and a great deal to do with strategy, demographics and luck.  (Sure, in 20 years it will be clear that THE SOCIAL NETWORK should have won in 2010...  but in 20 years, it'll still be the picture that lost.)  So welcome to our coverage.  Over the next few days, we'll introduce the clear contenders, subdividing them as a racing form might.  Today:  the Chalk (those are the favorites, for the uninitiated).

The odds to win below come from actual bookmaking websites (which probably shouldn't be linked to); the odds to become one of the Best Picture nominees are ours.  (Note that there are some inconsistencies among the odds, due to biases among bookmaking patrons that include a preference for UK titles, and what some might consider undue regard for films that have already been released.)  Place your bets...

CHALK

WAR HORSE (DreamWorks/Disney - Dec. 25)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  1/5
Bookie odds to win:  5/2

Good Bet:  Steven Spielberg in his wheelhouse, a mix of sentimentality (A Boy and His Horse) and fierce,warfare (Boy Loses Horse to the trenches of WWI).  It also doesn't hurt that the film is based on the same novel as the Tony-Award winning play (although the two versions were adapted from the book independently of one another).

Bad Bet: Nobody's seen an inch of it yet... except for the trailer, which comes uncomfortably close to what a Spielberg parody mash-up might look like.  (Did John Williams compose the score in 1988?)
 
THE DESCENDANTS (Fox Searchlight - Nov. 18)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  1/3
Bookie odds to win:  3/1

Good Bet:  Alexander Payne's first film since Sideways has been hailed at multiple film festivals, and features a sure-to-be-nominated lead performance from George Clooney.

Bad Bet:  It's a little bit lightweight.  Maybe too much of a comedy for the Academy's taste. 

THE HELP (DreamWorks/Disney) - Released Aug. 10)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated: 1/2
Bookie odds to win:  20/1

Good Bet:  The little movie that could:  $163M in tickets sold, on a $25M budget.  A weighty subject, and an award-worthy ensemble cast.

Bad Bet:  Concerns about the film's protagonist being the Emma Stone character rather than the maids, plus a general feel among critics that it was a superficial look at an immensely complicated subject.  DreamWorks has War Horse to push--how much effort will they put into a movie that isn't directed by Spielberg and has already banked a ton of profit?

J.EDGAR (Warner Bros - Nov. 9)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated: 1/1
Bookie odds to win:  7/2

Good Bet:  Mr. Eastwood.  Exactly the kind of huge, political biography the Academy loves.  DiCaprio aging with lots of prosthetic make-up and a funny voice.  Could this be his year?

Bad Bet: Nobody's seen it yet, and it opens in less than 4 weeks.  Flags of Our Fathers and Invictus suggest that historical pageants may not be Clint's thing.  The subject matter is tricky--is the movie really going to tiptoe away from the gay angle? 

THE ARTIST (Weinstein - Nov. 23)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  3/2 
Bookie odds to win:  11/2

Good Bet:  There's nothing else remotely like it:  a black-and-white, virtually silent film that has a heart to go along with its technical perfection.  Already a critical darling after its film festival screenings.  It's about movies.  And it's getting this year's main push from Mr. Harvey Weinstein.

Bad Bet:  It's unique, all right, but is it important or just odd?  Is there an audience for it beyond cineastes?  Warm-hearted slapstick comedy isn't usually the Academy's genre of choice.

MIDNIGHT IN PARIS (Sony Classics - Released May 20)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  2/1
Bookie odds to win:  16/1

Good Bet:  The Woodman's Biggest Hit Ever.  (If you don't adjust for inflation.)  A movie everybody likes, it manages to be classy and smart and yet not ostentatious.

Bad Bet:  But let's face it, not one of Woody's very best.  The boxoffice gross may be prize enough. 

EXTREMELY LOUD AND INCREDIBLY CLOSE (Warner Bros - Dec. 25)

SHOWBUZZDAILY odds to be nominated:  5/2
Bookie odds to win:  8/1

Good Bet:  There is no better definition of "Oscar Bait" than a movie about 9/11, from the director of Billy Elliot, The Hours and The Reader, based on a critically acclaimed bestseller, that stars Oscar winners Tom Hanks and Sandra Bullock--not to mention Max Von Sydow, James Gandolfini, Viola Davis, and John Goodman. It could have been assembled from a How-To-Win-An-Oscar kit.

Bad Bet: Nobody's seen it.  Critics could very well resist the neatness of the package, and without critical acclaim, its chances would be incredibly far away.

COMING TOMORROW:  THE FIELD

COMING SUNDAY:  ALSO ELIGIBLE


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THE BIJOU BOXOFFICE FOOTNOTES - August 28

12:51 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , ,


The probable effect of Irene is most evident in the weekend's limited releases, where loss of NY business would have been most damaging.  HIGHER GROUND, seemingly headed for a per-theatre average of $12K, could only manage $7600, while CIRCUMSTANCE, on track for a $8K average, made it to only $6200.  Similarly, some expansions were hit:  SARAH'S KEY, which looked to hold steady on Friday (while increasing theatre count by 35%), instead went down 17%.  And Sony Classics was unlucky in its last-hurrah expansion of MIDNIGHT IN PARIS, which increased its theatre count by almost 150% but saw grosses rise only 34%.


For the wider releases, the storm's effect was less serious.  THE HELP seemed hardly to be touched at all, probably because its audience isn't particularly centered on the East Coast, and the same goes for the genre movies COLOMBIANA and DON'T BE AFRAID OF THE DARK.  OUR IDIOT BROTHER could plausibly claim that Irene caused it some pain, but even another $1M for the weekend wouldn't have made its bleak result much brighter. 

Labor Day weekend is historically terrible at the boxoffice, and studios will have to decide whether the possibility of making up for some of this weekend's shortfall justifies increased marketing for next weekend, in an effort to bring some of those lost audiences back in.  The big studios will probably do little, if any, of that--this weekend's openings were unlikely to have much gas in them anyway.  Smaller distributors like Sony Classics and Roadside Attractions, however, may find the push worthwhile.  

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Box Office Footnotes - July 23

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Unlike nearly all the other action epics this summer, CAPTAIN AMERICA:  THE FIRST AVENGER is rolling out slowly overseas, with only a couple of dozen territories getting the picture this weekend.  That will postpone a call on its ultimate boxoffice fate, because in this genre, international results are crucially important, contributing more than half of ultimate boxoffice--and because Captain America (retitled in 3 territories to remove any US stigma) could meet resistance in some areas.  Worth noting:  while the difference between its A- Cinemascore rating and Thor's B+ is meaningless, the fact that the Captain had about 50% more young viewers than the Norse god could suggest a more frontloaded boxoffice than Thor had.  For now, Captain America is, by a (not to be unduly suspicious of studio estimators) remarkably thin margin, the biggest superhero opener of the season. Also in its favor:  reports that next weekend's Cowboys and Aliens is tracking weakly (so expect the TV airwaves to be bombarded with last-minute promos for that one in the next few days).



A 73% drop for HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS (PART 2) wouldn't be historic--just in the Top 30 of all-time second weekend falls--but more subjectively, it would be the worst drop ever for a movie as well-reviewed and generally well-regarded as Hallows 2 is.  (The massively front-loaded Twilight series has never gone beyond a 70% second weekend fall.)  Any lingering fan hope of a Best Picture nomination probably went out the window yesterday.  Mitch Metcalf will tell us over the course of the weekend whether Harry's all-important foreign numbers are slipping as badly.

The FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS number is a bit disappointing, especially considering generally solid reviews. (Mine is here.)   It's a picture that would normally benefit from good word of mouth and some extended playing time, but with Crazy Stupid Love, The Change-Up and 30 Minutes or Less about to flood the comedy pipeline, that may be time Friends doesn't have.

Amazingly, MIDNIGHT IN PARIS lost 10% of its theatres this weekend and yet its Friday boxoffice number barely moved.  It could now realistically be on its way to a $50M US gross.  A BETTER LIFE expanded again, by 20%, but because its per-theatre number fell, its Friday boxoffice is down 35% from last week.  Similarly, Fox Searchlight's SNOW FLOWER AND THE SECRET FAN (for which the only important credit is "Produced by Wendi Murdoch," AKA the wife who so zealously protected her billionaire hubby--and owner of Searchlight--from shaving cream last week)  more than doubled its theatres and saw its per-theatre number fall by almost half.  

The roughly $20K per theatre for ANOTHER EARTH is better news than the same number for SARAH'S KEY, since the latter is a slick international co-production based on a bestselling novel and Another Earth is a very low-budgeted indie. (And one well worth seeking out--my review is here.)  THE MYTH OF THE AMERICAN SLEEPOVER has been getting excellent reviews, but seems likely to do only about $12K in one NY house.

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Box Office Footnotes - July 16 - Harry Potter Edition

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Now that HARRY POTTER AND THE DEATHLY HALLOWS (PART 2) has obliterated the single-day US boxoffice record, and is poised to have the all-time US weekend, what other records lie ahead?  The all-time Saturday is held by Spiderman 3, with $51.3M.  If Harry can stay under a 45% drop today, it'll surpass that one too.  The Sunday record belongs to The Dark Knight, with $43.6M--that one may be tougher, since Dark Knight dropped only 8% from Saturday to Sunday... but at this point, nothing can be ruled out. 


Meanwhile, The Hollywood Reporter has Harry's Friday overseas number at $75M, meaning that including its Wednesday and Thursday openings in some territories, it's already at $157.5M, with a global total through Friday of $250M.  It seems a good bet to take the all-time worldwide opening, a record currently held by its stablemate Half-Blood Prince with $394M. 

The real question, of course, is how front-loaded all this will be.  Despite that record opening, Half-Blood Prince made "only" $933M in the end, so 42% of its total boxoffice was earned in its first 3 days.  Deathly Hallows 2 seems likely to do better than that, with great word of mouth (its 97% Rotten Tomatoes rating--100% from "Top Critics"--make it the best-reviewed wide release of the year), but this story will play out over the coming weeks.  The good thing about a mid-July opening is that a strong title can play all the way through Labor Day with limited competition, something that's worked well for Warners with both Dark Knight and Inception.  

Meanwhile, if Warners is--by far--the happiest studio in town, the least happy is Paramount.  Not only did Harry badly dent Transformers 3 yesterday (it probably took the biggest hit in terms of losing prime multiplex placement and 3D theatres), but they have the next action movie up to the plate, Friday's CAPTAIN AMERICA.  Even if Harry goes down 60% next weekend--which it well might--the Captain will still be facing $60M+ in competition, and have a hard time getting the best auditoriums and sufficient 3D.  (The likable Friends With Benefits, also opening next week, won't be affected so much, since it's classic romantic comedy counterprogramming.)

There are, believe it or not, other movies playing this weekend.  Woody Allen's MIDNIGHT IN PARIS officially became the most successful film (not adjusted for inflation) of his 42-year US filmmaking career, with $40.4M earned and more to come.  In limited release, SNOW FLOWER AND THE SECRET FAN will struggle to reach $5K per theatre in 24, with LIFE, ABOVE ALL and the dreadful SALVATION BLVD not even reaching half that much in only 5 houses each.  The Sarah Palin "documentary" UNDEFEATED, though, may reach $10K in each of 28 very carefully chosen theatres.  

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend as the Harry Potter juggernaut keeps rolling.

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A MIDSUMMER STUDIO'S REPORT CARD: Sony

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With a summer movie season bracketed by the first weekend in May on one end, and Labor Day on the other, we've reached the midpoint of 2011's array of blockbusters, and for the next week, here at SHOWBUZZDAILY, we'll be providing our judgments on how the studios are doing.  US Grosses are as of July 4, 2011; Overseas Grosses are as of July 3,2011.

Today:  PlayStation Central


MOVIES IN RELEASE

PRIEST (Screen Gems)
US Release:  May 13
US Gross:  $29,136,626
Overseas Gross:  $47,367,388
Worldwide Total:  $76,504,014

MIDNIGHT IN PARIS (Sony Pictures Classics)

US Release:  May 20
US Gross:  $34,998,139
Overseas Gross:  n/a (Sony has domestic rights only)
Worldwide Total: n/a

BAD TEACHER (Columbia)
US Release:  June 24
US Gross:  $65,211,014
Overseas Gross:  $28,600,000
Worldwide Total: $93,811,014

THE MONEY
 
Sony is having a remarkably quiet summer, mostly letting its lower-budget divisions do the talking. (Possibly the studio is conserving its strength for next year, when it'll have 2 of the biggest mega-busters of the season:  Men In Black 3 and the Spiderman reboot.)  "Lower-budget," of course is a relative term, and Screen Gems' PRIEST cost $60M, which means more like $125M with global marketing.  At that price, a worldwide gross of $76M is bad news.

BAD TEACHER is a more successful example of keeping to a budget.  The studio says the film was produced for only $19M (Cameron Diaz took just $1M upfront), and even with worldwide marketing costs and the traditional softness of American comedies overseas, $94M in the bank with plenty of revenue still to come should make for comfortable profits.

While Sony Pictures Classics is run as a completely separate division within the company, and has only limited territorial rights to Woody Allen's MIDNIGHT IN PARIS, the film is a tremendous hit on its smaller terms, with $35M earned in the US and a relatively puny marketing budget (hardly any TV ads).  It's the biggest specialty release anyone's had since the holiday/Oscar season bonanza.

THE QUALITY

The studio has run the gamut in its limited number of releases this summer.  Priest was a terrible movie even within its grubby genre, and richly deserved its boxoffice fate.  Bad Teacher is no classic, but it's amusing and likable.  Midnight In Paris may be the best picture released during the first half of 2011.

STILL TO COME

ZOOKEEPER - July 8: A co-production with MGM (Sony is in business with the still-moribund lion through its James Bond deal, which gave MGM interests in several other high-profile Sony releases).  Zookeeper has the good fortune this week of hitting the third weekend of Cars 2, a much weaker Pixar release than it could have anticipated, which could boost its weekend receipts.

FRIENDS WITH BENEFITS - July 22: Another Screen Gems release, this is the better version of No Strings Attached, but coming along second and without the Black Swan-driven star power of Natalie Portman--and with the superior Crazy, Stupid, Love opening a week later--it may not have much impact.

THE SMURFS - July 29:  Counterprogramming to Cowboys & Aliens on the one hand, and Crazy, Stupid, Love on the other, it's not likely to hit beyond its kiddie target audience. 

30 MINUTES OR LESS - August 12:  More low-budget R-rated comedy, although this one has a buzzy cast (Jesse Eisenberg, Aziz Ansari, Danny McBride).  It'll have to hope that The Change-Up, the prior week's comedy with Ryan Reynolds and Jason Bateman, doesn't have any staying power, which may not be a bad bet. 

COLOMBIANA - August 26:  Coming from yet another low-budget division (TriStar), this is a negative pick-up from the Luc Besson action factory, with Zoe Saldana as the assassin heroine.  This isn't the slot for a picture with legs, but Jason Statham has made a cottage industry out of some quick late-summer dollars here in movies like Crank, Transporter 2, War and Death Race, and since his new Killer Elite doesn't open until Sept 23, there's a brief window for Sony to take those revenues.

MIDSUMMER GRADES:

THE MONEY:  C, any gains by Bad Teacher are erased by Priest, and Sony doesn't even feel like it is playing in the big studio league.

THE QUALITY:  B-, but they're lucky Woody Allen was on the team.

Click HERE to read the other studio report cards.

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Box Office Footnotes - July 2

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TRANSFORMERS:  DARK OF THE MOON becomes the latest franchise movie to fall short in the US compared to prior chapters of the series, despite an increased 3D ticket price.  (Like others, most notably Pirates 4, it may well make up the shortfall overseas.)  That doesn't make a US gross of $350M anything to complain about, but it will continue to change the studio dynamic of how future franchises are developed and produced.  An acid test of this phenomenon will come in 2 weeks when we get to the final HARRY POTTER, which people have assumed will be the highest grossing of the series because it's the last chapter (and in 3D)--but will that prove true?

Universal can talk all it wants about the budget of LARRY CROWNE being only $30M and its audience being an older crowd that doesn't rush out on opening weekend; the studio paid for a big-time marketing campaign, and that means no profits for anyone (including Hanks and Roberts, who could only have achieved that budget with enormous back-end deals).  The question isn't so much whether Hanks and Roberts are giant stars any longer (they're not), but who steps into their shoes?  There's little sign that Katherine Heigl or Ryan Reynolds, just to name two, can become that level of star.  (Bill Simmons at Grantland wrote a terrific column this week about the current definition of movie stardom--very much recommended.) 


Thinking of people who aren't movie stars:  MONTE CARLO couldn't manage a decent opening even with Selena Gomez, Leighton Meester, Cory Monteith and Katie Cassidy in the cast.  Unlike Larry Crowne, though, this one had a limited marketing campaign, so the red ink shouldn't be so bad.   (Nicole Kidman, who originally developed the movie to star herself and other actresses in her age group, must be wondering why she allowed the picture to become teened and herself relegated to a mere producer.)

CARS 2 is having, by a considerable margin, the worst 2d weekend drop in Pixar history--and that's on a holiday weekend!  Its decline being more severe than the one for BAD TEACHER is a bet even Vegas wouldn't have taken 2 weeks ago.  (By the way, for devotees of Cinemascore:  take a look at the A- Cars 2 scored and the C+ of Bad Teacher and try to rationalize how those grades can mean anything.  For a comparison of the statistical value of Cinemascore versus critic reviews, read Mitch Metcalf's piece on calculating Word of Mouth.) 

BRIDESMAIDS and MIDNIGHT IN PARIS continued their almost imperceptible weekend drops, especially Midnight, which now seems certain to become Woody Allen's biggest hit (unadjusted for inflation, which is relevant when you're talking about a 40-year career).  In smaller releases, TREE OF LIFE and  BEGINNERS added a few theatres and held fairly steady; we'll see in the next few weeks how wide Fox Searchlight and Focus think they can go.  The only notable new limited release is the extremely well-reviewed TERRI, from new indie distributor ATO:  it's a tough sell and seems to be headed for an only OK $10K or so in each of 6 theatres.

No action movie wanted to open on July 8 and be sandwiched between the behemoths of Transformers and Harry Potter, so this week we get more counterprogramming:  the R-rated comedy HORRIBLE BOSSES, which has a fun premise but not a lot of star power (other than Jennifer Aniston in a supporting role); and ZOOKEEPER, with the kind of cute talking animals that could deal a deathblow to the floundering Cars 2.  

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Box Office Footnotes - June 18

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GREEN LANTERN cost at least as much as Thor ($350-400M with worldwide marketing), and will probably open around 15% lower--and Thor is no blockbuster hit.  Which means that although intensive promos got bodies into theatres, Warners and DC aren't out of the woods.  The picture only scored a B on Cinemascore despite what must have been a ton of comic book movie fans buying tickets, so word of mouth may be painful on this one.

There was a time when the MR. POPPER'S PENGUINS number would have been OK, because DVD sales would have made up for lackluster boxoffice.  But at a cost of at least $200M, and with the DVD market having cratered, it doesn't look good.  Big loser is Jim Carrey, who's now clearly off the A-list.

SUPER 8 had a very solid hold, although considering where it started, it will still only be a modest grosser (and Paramount had to invest in heavy Week 2 marketing expense).   The other holdovers continued pretty much as they had been, with all the franchises heading to series lows, X-MEN declining sharply (so much for good reviews) and BRIDESMAIDS holding like a champion.

MIDNIGHT IN PARIS is starting to look like an indie juggernaut--it's now certain to be Woody Allen's highest grosser since Hannah and Her Sisters in 1986 (although a comparison of those two would require serious adjustment for ticket price inflation). TREE OF LIFE expanded again to 114 theatres, and it's per-theatre number is starting to falter:  compare its $10K/theatre to the $18K Midnight In Paris made when it hit 154 theatres.  BEGINNERS is keeping its head above water, doubling to 44 theatres and heading for around $8K in each.

THE ART OF GETTING BY is a negligible picture that Fox Searchlight didn't figure out how to market--with a disastrous $1500 per theatre, it'll vanish quickly.

Next weekend is all CARS 2, and the only question is how it will compare to previous Pixar openings.  the $110M Toy Story 3 made is unlikely, so it'll be looking at the $60-70M earned by the original Cars and other recent Pixars like Wall-E and Up.  BAD TEACHER is R-rated counterprogramming that should find a place in 2d; it'll be interesting to see whether direct competition finally slows Bridesmaids down.  Looking slightly farther down the road, Paramount announced that TRANSFORMERS 3 will start its 3D and IMAX engagements on Tuesday June 28, giving the movie a giant "July 4th weekend" that will last a full week. 

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