Movie Box Review

Full weekend drops can be expected to hit a little harder than usual this week, because last week's holiday weekend boosted Sunday receipts.

TRANSFORMERS 3 had a second Friday about midway between those of its two predecessors ($14.9M compared to $10.8M and $18M, respectively), with a decline that was slightly worse than, but in the same neighborhood as, both (54% vs 51-52%).  It's still on target to end up with a US total between the earlier films. 

HORRIBLE BOSSES is having a very solid opening, joining the parade of R-rated comedies that have done well this summer.  This may or may not be good news for Sony's Friends With Benefits, the next raunchy comedy to hit on July 22.

What clearly wasn't good news for Sony was the ZOOKEEPER opening.  That picture had exactly one weekend to make a mark before the Potter deluge next weekend, and it didn't.  Worse, Zookeeper managed to cost a reported $80M, which along with an expansive marketing campaign means the studio needs overseas to bail it out.

The idea that LARRY CROWNE--a movie hardly anyone liked--would have soft weekend drops because other Tom Hanks movies--which people actually did like--had them was exposed as the silliness it was.  Also silly:  the idea that 50% drops for a movie like Larry Crowne are anything but disastrous.  MONTE CARLO held a little better than expected, but at those numbers it doesn't matter much.

As noted in Mitch Metcalf's Friday results piece, the A Tribe Called Quest documentary BEATS, RHYTHM AND LIFE is headed for a very nice $40K per screen in only 4 theatres.  However, the news was less good elsewhere in limited release:  the much-vaunted documentary PROJECT NIM, John Carpenter's THE WARD and Catherine Breillat's THE SLEEPING BEAUTY are all likely to end up at under $5K per screen.

The only question for next weekend is:  How high will HARRY POTTER go?  DEATHLY HALLOWS PART I did $125M last November, and that was without 3D  (the all-time high is THE DARK KNIGHT with $158M).  Disney will throw its new WINNIE THE POOH cartoon into the mix to get those kiddies too young for the darker tones of the Hogwarts crew, and Fox Searchlight (still in no hurry to widen THE TREE OF LIFE) will launch the subtitled SNOW FLOWER AND THE SECRET FAN in limited release.

READ SHOWBUZZDAILY'S HARRY POTTER RETROSPECTIVE REVIEWS
HARRY POTTER AND THE SORCERER'S STONE
HARRY POTTER AND THE CHAMBER OF SECRETS

Today;  The Mouse House

US Release:  May 20

US Gross:  $234,200,000

Overseas Gross:  $774,000,000

Worldwide Total:  $1,008,000,000

US Release:  June 24

US Gross:  $123,002,000

Worldwide Total: $205,202,000

 

You can't argue with a billion dollars; Pirates 4 is the 8th biggest worldwide moneymaker of all time, and it could catch up to Pirates 2 in 4th place, just $58M ahead.  That would leave it behind only Avatar, Titanic and the last Lord of the Rings on the all-time list.  These massive numbers disguise the fact that Pirates 4 has the lowest US boxoffice total of the Top 19 worldwide--amazingly, only 23 cents of every dollar it's earned has come from the US, and it's by far the least successful of its franchise in the domestic market.  A dollar is a dollar, even if it has to be converted to get there, and Disney will take the money wherever it's earned.  Since future installments of the series will certainly be coming (at least as long as Johnny Depp wants to don that eyeliner), it'll be interesting to see if Disney tries to boost the US popularity of the series through casting and locations, or whether Pirates embraces its foreign identity and treats the US as a large but not crucially important territory.

The news is less ambiguous for Cars 2  Domestically, it's headed for the 2d lowest Pixar gross ever, and it's dented the Pixar brand critically (see below).  The international view is a little incomplete ($82 million is a good first weekend in a limited number of territories and we expect this number to jump substantially next week).  We have a ballpark estimate of $275 million total overseas, assuming an international multiple similar to recent Pixar releases over a domestic total as measured by the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate.  As with many high profile Hollywood movies, the international gusher of money can mitigate weakness on the homefront.

In 2 words:  Not Good.  

Pirates 4 was perhaps less disastrous than its immediate predecessor, but it's a dull and unexciting adventure that feels like it was made with everyone's eye on their paychecks.  Those paychecks have plenty of zeroes, so it's not clear if anyone cares, but it'd be nice to think that the slack writing, acting and direction will eventually catch up with the series.  

Cars 2 isn't just the worst Pixar movie to date, it's the first bad Pixar movie ever, lazily plotted and mostly unfunny.  The bulletproof reputation that kept Pixar on a pedestal above DreamWorks and any other animation pretenders has been breached, and the next Pixar movie (the medieval Scottish adventure Brave in June 2012) will be scrutinized--by audience and critics--with a skeptical eye that the studio has never experienced before.  The Disney policy of encouraging sequels and franchises (discussed in this NY Times article) may have to be balanced against the value of the studio's most prestigious and profitable brand.

WINNIE THE POOH - July 15:  Pure counterprogramming to the Harry Potter avalanche that day, aimed at kids too young for the increasing darkness at Hogwarts.  Modestly budgeted and marketed.

THE HELP - August 12:  Notable as the first "serious" release from Disney's new DreamWorks division (I Am Number Four was its first nonserious release).  It's too early to discuss The Help in any depth, but it's a worthy movie with a great cast, based on a bestseller, that seems a bit out of place in its mid-August slot; normally a picture like this, hoping to get some awards attention for the actresses at least, would be opening a month or so later.

FRIGHT NIGHT - August 19:  More DreamWorks, this one a low-budget horror comedy that'll be hoping to make a few bucks before summer ends.  The trailer looks promising, but it opens against the new Conan the Barbarian, and the following week it has to face the latest Final Destination kill-fest, so it runs the risk of being squeezed out.  

THE MONEY:  B.  A summer whose only major releases are shaky entries in preexisting franchises, with the other titles (the first of the company's new regime under Rich Ross) as virtual throwaways, builds nothing for the future--and the mismanagement of the Pixar brand is worrisome.    

THE QUALITY:  C+.  Two mediocre movies don't make for a good season, and "Won't Make You Actively Suffer!" isn't much of a summer slogan.


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