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| Hey, go see this movie. |
Opening at more than 2,400 theaters in North America by Summit, 50/50 should average a soft $4,400 per theater (for $10.5 million for Friday-Sunday). (All films the last two years have averaged $5,525 per theater in their opening weekend.) 50/50 has received strong reviews, with 92% positive at RottenTomatoes. This Seth Rogen and Joseph Gordon-Levitt comedy/drama should be on track for around $40 million in North America when it leaves theaters, although there is some upside in that number if word of mouth matches the reviews.
At about 2,600 theaters, Dream House from Universal should average a weak $3,500 per theater (for $9 million this weekend). The horror-thriller does not have any reviews posted at RottenTomatoes, which usually means the studio did not have the confidence to put the movie in front of the nation's critics. This movie is probably headed for around $17 million domestically.
Opening at 3,000 theaters from 20th Century Fox, What's Your Number? should average a very weak $2,700 from Friday-Sunday (for a $8 million opening weekend). Early reviews are quite negative, with 24% positive so far. The Anna Faris comedy is on track for maybe $20 million in North America.
Finally, opening at a small 1,100 theaters from Sony, Courageous should average a decent $6,500 from Friday-Sunday (for an $7 million opening weekend). The Christian-themed drama has not been made available for review and might end up with about $20 million domestically.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
September 30-October 2 Positive Weekend Total*
50/50 Summit R 92% $ 10.5 $ 40
Dream House Uni PG13 n/a $ 9.0 $ 17
What's Your Number? Fox R 24% $ 8.0 $ 20
Courageous Sony PG13 n/a $ 7.0 $ 20
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
The second weekend films, Dolphin Tale and Moneyball, will have solid holds and will compete with Lion King in 3D again for the #1 weekend crown. We give the edge to family film Dolphin Tale, but Moneyball has been grossing well this week and should make it close.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
September 30-October 2 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Dolphin Tale WB -30% $13.5 $ 85
Moneyball Sony -37% $12.5 $ 70
Lion King 3D Dis -43% $12.5 $125
Abduction LG -55% $ 5.0 $ 25
Killer Elite OpenRoad -45% $ 5.0 $ 25
Contagion WB -38% $ 5.0 $ 80
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $85 million total, ranking 47th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend's total was $86 million and the same weekend in 2009 was $92 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like a fairly strong $94 million, up about 9% from this weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
10/1/10
The Social Network SONY PG13 Jesse Eisenberg Justin Timberlake
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $26 Actual: $22
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $92 Actual: $97
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $128
Let Me In OVERTURE R Kodi Smit-McPhee Chloe Moretz
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $10 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $19 Actual: $12
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $12
Case 39 PAR R Renee Zellweger Jodelle Ferland
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $6 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $13 Actual: $13
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $15
10/2/09
Zombieland SONY R Woody Harrelson
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $22 Actual: $25
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $89 Actual: $76
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $27
Toy Story (3D) DIS G
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $11 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $47 Actual: $31
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $1
Whip It FOX PG13 Ellen Page Kristen Wiig
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $8 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $19 Actual: $13
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $3
The Invention of Lying WB PG13 Ricky Gervais Jennifer Garner
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $7 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $21 Actual: $18
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $14
Capitalism: A Love Story OVERTURE R Michael Moore
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $6 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $18 Actual: $14
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $3
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform. Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up as a whole (based on Friday's early numbers), on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.
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