The Hollywood Reporter has fresher boxoffice numbers. MONEYBALL's start isn't quite as high as it had looked, but a Friday close to $7M is still excellent, and should lead to a $20M or so weekend, especially since exit polls indicate audiences are in line with critics on this one. THE LION KING, entering what's supposed to be its final pre-blu-ray weekend, is right behind with a $6M Friday that could actually put it in 1st place when matinees are counted. Still in the race is DOLPHIN TALE, with a $5M Friday, but also the first A+ Cinemascore since The Help, which may buoy its weekend multiple to the same $20M level.
Among the also-rans, try to duck if you're in the path of the massive amount of spin being thrown by Taylor Lautner's reps: a $4M opening day that will probably lead to around a $10-11M weekend means that outside his vampiric franchise, he's no movie star. KILLER ELITE is one notch behind, with a $3.7M opening that should also land it in the neighborhood of $10M.
DRIVE fared best among the holdovers, and should fall less than 50% in its second weekend. I DON'T KNOW HOW SHE DOES IT will slip by half, and STRAW DOGS is likely to fall by 55% or so.
Deadline has some preliminary numbers for the day, and MONEYBALL seems to be having a very strong start, with $8M or so. Given the quality of the picture (a stellar 94% on Rotten Tomatoes), good word of mouth should be assured, and the weekend could reach close to $24M. That will probably put it in a tight race with DOLPHIN TALE, which is only headed for $6M on Friday, but should have strong Saturday family matinee business; that could put it in the low $20Ms for the weekend. A notch below is ABDUCTION, which is also looking for $6M on Friday, but with star Taylor Lautner's notoriously front-loaded teen girl fans, it may not get much above $15M for the weekend. Bringing up the rear is KILLER ELITE, which is headed for $5M on Friday and probably low teens over the weekend.
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