Adam Sandler opens Jack and Jill this weekend, and it will be an uphill battle for it to displace Puss in Boots from the top of the box office. Immortals will be challenging Jack and Jill for the second spot on the chart. Box office volume for the weekend will probably be up around 6% over the same weekend last year.
Opening at more than 3,000 theaters in North America by Sony, Jack and Jill should average a solid $7.400 per theater (for $22.5 million for Friday-Sunday). (All films the last two years have averaged $5,525 per theater in their opening weekend.) Shockingly, Sony has not made the latest Adam Sandler masterpiece available to critics -- so there are no reviews at RottenTomatoes currently. Jack and Jill should be on track for around $70 million in North America when it leaves theaters.
Also at about 3,000 theaters, Immortals from Relativity should average a similar $7,400 per theater (for $22.5 million this weekend). The R-rated fantasy action film has not been released for reviews. This movie is probably headed for around $60 million domestically.
At about 1,900 theaters, J. Edgar from Warner Brothers should average a fairly soft $6,300 per theater (for $12.0 million this weekend). The R-rated historical drama is running at only 42% positive reviews, far lower than Clint Eastwood and Warners would expect. This movie is probably headed for around $35 million domestically.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
November 11-13 Positive Weekend Total*
Jack and Jill Sony PG n/a $22.5 $ 70
Immortals Rel R n/a $22.5 $ 60
J. Edgar WB R 42% $12.0 $ 35
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
The third weekend of Puss in Boots should be a very good $25 million, enough to stay at #1.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
November 11-13 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Puss in Boots DW/Par -24% $25.0 $170
Tower Heist Uni -46% $13.0 $ 85
A Very Harold & Kumar WB -55% $ 6.0 $ 44
In Time Fox -43% $ 4.5 $ 39
Paranormal Activity 3 Par -55% $ 4.0 $113
Footloose Par -28% $ 3.2 $ 55
Real Steel Sony -37% $ 2.2 $ 88
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $118 million total, ranking 28th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend's total was $112 million, and the same weekend in 2009 was $129 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like $118 million, up 6% from this weekend last year and even with the four-year average for this weekend.
This Weekend Last Two Years
11/12/10
Unstoppable FOX PG13 Denzel Washington Chris Pine
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $23 Actual: $23
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $77 Actual: $81
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $86
Morning Glory PAR PG13 Harrison Ford Rachel McAdams
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $12 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $33 Actual: $31
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $28
Skyline UNI PG13 Eric Balfour Scottie Thompson
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $22 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $20 Actual: $21
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $46
11/13/09
2012 SONY PG13 John Cusack Woody Harrelson
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $55 Actual: $65
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $164 Actual: $166
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $604
Pirate Radio UNI R Philip Seymour Hoffman Bill Nighy
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $4 Actual: $3
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $9 Actual: $8
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $28
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