THE BIJOU: Early Wednesday Boxoffice
BIJOU BOXOFFICE: WEEKEND STUDIO SCORECARD
BREAKING DAWN PART 1: Although BD1 had greater declines on Friday (as opposed to Thursday midnight) and Saturday than New Moon did in 2009, Summit's weekend estimate assumes exactly the same 34% drop for Sunday. So it's possible their $139.5M figure could come down a bit in the actuals tomorrow (which could move the film behind Pirates of the Caribbean 2's $138.6 and make it the 6th rather than 5th biggest opener ever). BD2 also launched worldwide and made $144M overseas--that's huge of course, but while New Moon's international opening weekend was "only" $132.5M, that was in just 25 territories rather than BD1's 54.WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES November 18-20
Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), Twilight Saga Breaking Dawn Part 1 is opening just short of $140 million in its first weekend, while Happy Feet Two looks like a $22 million opening. The top 12 films this weekend should do a combined $217 million, up 16% from the same weekend last year -- a very good showing but not as strong as it was looking yesterday.
Among the second week films, Immortals has been downgraded ($78 million), as has Jack and Jill ($64 million). J. Edgar is holding steady at its previous estimate ($34 million).
Tower Heist drifted down a bit again ($71 million) and A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas is locking in on its final number ($36 million).
November 18-20, 2011 Wknd vs Showbuzz
(millions) Studio Last Domestic
Proj. Wknd Final*
Twilight Breaking Dawn 1 (Sum) $139.5 $292
Happy Feet Two (WB) $22.0 $ 85
Immortals (Rel) $12.5 -62% $ 78-
Jack and Jill (Sony) $12.0 -52% $ 64
Puss in Boots (DW/Par) $10.7 -57% $165-
Tower Heist (Uni) $ 6.9 -46% $ 71-
J. Edgar (WB) $ 5.9 -47% $ 34
A Very Harold & Kumar (WB) $ 2.9 -51% $ 36
In Time (Fox) $ 1.6 -59% $ 37
Paranormal Activity 3 (Par) $ 1.0 -72% $103
Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday. The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday). The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend. The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America. A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.
Twilight Saga Film Track Opening Domestic Overseas
Weekend Total Total
Twilight 11.21.2008 $ 69.6 $192.8 $199.8
Twilight New Moon 11.20.2009 $142.8 $296.6 $413.2
Twilight Eclipse 6.30.2010 $ 64.8 $300.5 $397.9
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a very good $217 million total, up 16% from the same calendar weekend last year (when Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 opened to $125 million).
Top 12 Films: Weekend #46
Volume Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011 $217 Twilight Breaking Dawn 1 $139.5, Happy Feet Two $22
2010 $186 Harry Potter Deathly Hallows 1 $125
2009 $250 Twilight New Moon $143, Blind Side $34
2008 $157 Twilight $70, Bolt $26
2007 $151 Enchanted $34, This Christmas $18, Hitman $13
2007-10
Avg $186
Next Weekend
Opening next week are Arthur Christmas from Sony, The Muppets from Disney and Hugo from Paramount. Those movies will be compared to Tangled ($49 million opening weekend), Burlesque ($12 million), Love and Other Drugs ($10 million) and Faster ($8.5 million).
International numbers will be posted as soon as possible, and Monday we will have official numbers for the Friday-Sunday domestic grosses.
BIJOU BOXOFFICE: FRIDAY STUDIO SCORECARD
BREAKING DAWN PART 1: Christmas comes but once a year, and for Summit that day is the 24 hours after a Twilight movie opens. (A little credit to the studio, too, for not fudging the numbers, which would have been easy enough to do since they're so close, in order to claim a franchise record for Friday.) The $72M Breaking Dawn earned was a bit more front-loaded from Thursday midnight screenings than New Moon's $72.7M had been in 2009 (42% compared to 36%), and the same may well apply to Friday's chunk of the 3-day weekend total. New Moon's Friday was just about 51% of its $142.8M weekend, so Breaking Dawn 1 might end up around $135M, which would make it the 5th or 6th highest opening weekend ever (Pirates of the Caribbean 2 is at $135.8M).THE BIJOU: Early Friday Boxoffice
THE BIJOU WEEKEND BOXOFFICE FOOTNOTES - November 13
WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES November 11-13
Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), Immortals ($32 million) will beat Jack and Jill ($26 million). Keep in mind Immortals is playing on many fewer theaters than the Adam Sandler comedy and has a much better per theater number. J. Edgar is playing at even fewer theaters and has the worst per theater tally of the three openers, surprisingly. The weekend is looking like a $130 million total for the top 12 films, up 16% from the same weekend last year.
Tower Heist is holding steady in its second weekend ($78 million) and A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas has been downgraded a touch ($39 million).
Thanks to another great weekend (its third), Puss in Boots has been upgraded again ($179 million), while In Time is holding steady ($40 million).
November 11-13, 2011 Wknd vs Showbuzz
(millions) Studio Last Domestic
Proj. Wknd Final*
Immortals (Rel) $32.0 $ 90
Jack and Jill (Sony) $26.0 $ 78
Puss in Boots (DW/Par) $25.5 -23% $179+
Tower Heist (Uni) $13.2 -45% $ 78
J. Edgar (WB) $11.5 $ 33
A Very Harold & Kumar (WB) $ 5.9 -54% $ 39
In Time (Fox) $ 4.2 -45% $ 40
Paranormal Activity 3 (Par) $ 3.6 -57% $106-
Footloose (Par) $ 2.7 -39% $ 56
Real Steel (DW/Dis) $ 2.0 -42% $ 88
Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday. The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday). The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend. The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America. A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a weak $130 million total, up 16% from the same calendar weekend last year (when Unstoppable opened to $23 million and two others opened to a combined $21 million).
Top 12 Films: Weekend #45
Volume Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011 $135 Immortals $32, Jack and Jill $26, J. Edgar $11
2010 $112 Unstoppable $23, Skyline $12, Morning Glory $9
2009 $129 2012 $65, Pirate Radio $3
2008 $138 Quantum of Solace $68
2007 $ 93 Beowulf $28, Mr Magorium's Wonder Emporium $10
2007-10
Avg $118
Next Weekend
Opening next week are Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn (Part One) from Summit, Happy Feet Two from Warner Brothers and The Descendants from Fox Searchlight. Those movies will be compared to Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 ($125 million opening weekend) and The Next Three Days ($6.5 million).
International numbers will be posted as soon as possible, and Monday we will have official numbers for the Friday-Sunday domestic grosses.
THE BIJOU: Early Weekend Boxoffice
THE BIJOU: Friday Boxoffice Footnotes - November 12
FRIDAY NOVEMBER 11 BOX OFFICE RESULTS
THERE IS A GOD! Adam Sandler's latest movie in which he plays a brother and a sister will not be the #1 movie of the weekend. While not a flop, it failed to open to the $30-35 million his fans usually pony up. Best of all, the film will not come close to the $100 million usually generated by his work in North America. An end to an era? Not at all. But at least a significant portion of the audience is coming to their senses. Immortals was the big surprise, on track to take the weekend crown by a mile, and Puss in Boots rolls on, down only 20% or so again this weekend. Total volume for the weekend is looking like $135 million, up 21% from the same weekend last year and up 15% from the weekend's average the last four years.
J. Edgar will open at expectations ($4.25 million Friday for an estimated $11.5 million opening weekend, compared to a $12.0 million prediction). Playing in far fewer theaters (1,910) than the other openers (over 3,000+ each), this movie really should have had a solid per theater number (Clint Eastwood, diCaprio, historical drama, Oscar hopes). But J. Edgar will average a little over $6,000 per theater, far below the $11,500 figure for Immortals and below even Jack and Jill's $7,700 average. Yikes.
Down a preliminary 20% from last weekend (another very good hold), Puss in Boots is still very much in the mix, with its Domestic Final estimate upgraded yet again to $149 million.
In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
November 11-13, 2011 Pre-Wknd Wknd Showbuzz
(millions) Showbuzz Early Friday Domestic
Forecast Proj. Actual Final*
Puss In Boots (DW/Par) [$25.0] $28.0 $ 9.0 $149+
Jack and Jill (Sony) [$22.5] $26.5 $ 9.8 $ 79
Immortals (Rel) [$22.5] $36.0 $15.0 $102
Tower Heist (Uni) [$13.0] $13.7 $ 4.9 $ 80
J. Edgar (WB) [$12.0] $11.5 $ 4.2 $ 33
A Very Harold & Kumar WB [$ 6.0] $ 5.7 $ 2.3 $ 38-
In Time (Fox) [$ 4.5] $ 4.2 $ $ 40
Paranormal Activity 3 Par[$ 4.0] $ 3.7 $ 1.4 $106-
Footloose (Par) [$ 3.2] $ 2.8 $ 1.0 $ 56
Real Steel (DW/DIS) [$ 2.2] $ 1.9 $ 0.7 $ 87
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America. A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a weak $135 million total, up 21% from the same calendar weekend last year (when Unstoppable opened to $23 million and two others opened to a combined $21 million).
Top 12 Films: Weekend #45
Volume Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011 $135 Immortals $36, Jack and Jill $26, J. Edgar $12
2010 $112 Unstoppable $23, Skyline $12, Morning Glory $9
2009 $129 2012 $65, Pirate Radio $3
2008 $138 Quantum of Solace $68
2007 $ 93 Beowulf $28, Mr Magorium's Wonder Emporium $10
2007-10
Avg $118
Next Weekend
Opening next week are Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn (Part One) from Summit, Happy Feet Two from Warner Brothers and The Descendants from Fox Searchlight. Those movies will be compared to Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 ($125 million opening weekend) and The Next Three Days ($6.5 million).
Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.
THE BIJOU: Early Friday Boxoffice
THE BIJOU REVIEW: "Immortals"
There's no question that the director Tarsem Singh has an eye. Singh started as a director of commercials and music videos--his most famous is probably REM's "Losing My Religion"--and his features The Cell and The Fall both had striking, memorable visuals. Both also shared idiotic, barely comprehensible screenplays, and that brings us to his new film IMMORTALS. THE BIJOU: "Immortals" Stay Up Late
WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS November 11-13
Adam Sandler opens Jack and Jill this weekend, and it will be an uphill battle for it to displace Puss in Boots from the top of the box office. Immortals will be challenging Jack and Jill for the second spot on the chart. Box office volume for the weekend will probably be up around 6% over the same weekend last year.
Also at about 3,000 theaters, Immortals from Relativity should average a similar $7,400 per theater (for $22.5 million this weekend). The R-rated fantasy action film has not been released for reviews. This movie is probably headed for around $60 million domestically.
At about 1,900 theaters, J. Edgar from Warner Brothers should average a fairly soft $6,300 per theater (for $12.0 million this weekend). The R-rated historical drama is running at only 42% positive reviews, far lower than Clint Eastwood and Warners would expect. This movie is probably headed for around $35 million domestically.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
November 11-13 Positive Weekend Total*
Jack and Jill Sony PG n/a $22.5 $ 70
Immortals Rel R n/a $22.5 $ 60
J. Edgar WB R 42% $12.0 $ 35
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
The third weekend of Puss in Boots should be a very good $25 million, enough to stay at #1.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
November 11-13 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Puss in Boots DW/Par -24% $25.0 $170
Tower Heist Uni -46% $13.0 $ 85
A Very Harold & Kumar WB -55% $ 6.0 $ 44
In Time Fox -43% $ 4.5 $ 39
Paranormal Activity 3 Par -55% $ 4.0 $113
Footloose Par -28% $ 3.2 $ 55
Real Steel Sony -37% $ 2.2 $ 88
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $118 million total, ranking 28th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend's total was $112 million, and the same weekend in 2009 was $129 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like $118 million, up 6% from this weekend last year and even with the four-year average for this weekend.
This Weekend Last Two Years





