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Showing posts with label immortals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label immortals. Show all posts

THE BIJOU: Early Wednesday Boxoffice


Deadline has preliminary boxoffice figures for Wednesday, and there doesn't seem to be great news for anyone.  BREAKING DAWN PART 1 appears to be the easy winner for the day and probably for Thanksgiving weekend, but its $12.5M for Wednesday, if it holds, would be more than 10% off the parallel date for 2009's New Moon, and suggests that while unquestionably a giant hit, BD1 could be the lowest domestic grosser of the series since the original Twilight.


THE MUPPETS seems to be way ahead of the other openings of the day, with $7.5M (a $2100 per-theatre average) that could bring it to $40-45M for the holiday weekend.  ARTHUR CHRISTMAS seems to be around $2.8M for Wednesday ($850 average), on its way to only $15-20M by Monday.  HUGO, in a smaller 1200 theatre run, is well behind with $1.6M for the day ($1250 average) and $8-10M for the long weekend.  

THE DESCENDANTS expanded to 390 theatres for the holiday, and is aiming at $1M for the day, a $2500 average that could give it a $5-8M weekend.  

Holdovers were none too impressive either, with HAPPY FEET TWO heading for an additional $15-20M for the holiday, and IMMORTALS and JACK AND JILL each looking at $10-12M over the 5 day holiday.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis!

 

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BIJOU BOXOFFICE: WEEKEND STUDIO SCORECARD



BREAKING DAWN PART 1:  Although BD1 had greater declines on Friday (as opposed to Thursday midnight) and Saturday than New Moon did in 2009, Summit's weekend estimate assumes exactly the same 34% drop for Sunday.  So it's possible their $139.5M figure could come down a bit in the actuals tomorrow (which could move the film behind Pirates of the Caribbean 2's $138.6 and make it the 6th rather than 5th biggest opener ever).  BD2 also launched worldwide and made $144M overseas--that's huge of course, but while New Moon's international opening weekend was "only" $132.5M, that was in just 25 territories rather than BD1's 54.


HAPPY FEET TWO:  $22M is just this side of wretched, and even that number assumes a very low 28% drop for Sunday.

THE DESCENDANTS:  Off to a good start with a very strong $42K per theatre average, but the test will come when it expands semi-widely on Wednesday.

HOLDOVERS:  Despite its big opening, IMMORTALS won't do much more than break even in the US (and that's accepting Relativity's claim that after foreign presales it only carried $25M of the production cost), and like many an action movie before it, will have to do big business overseas to hit profit.  JACK AND JILL is likely to be the first Adam Sandler comedy vehicle to actually lose money in a very long time.  J. EDGAR's 47% drop is quite bad for a picture that's hoping to linger in theatres and play a part in the Oscar race, and it's going to need some support from the early awards at the end of this month if it's to have any chance.  The smartest scheduling decision of the entire year may have been DreamWorks Animation's one-week move of PUSS IN BOOTS, which has turned out to be the difference between a moderate success (probably around the level of Megamind's $148M) and what would have been a serious disappointment.  It's looking like PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3 won't manage to outgross the original's $108M to become the franchise's highest grosser, but Paramount will be quite fine with $105M or so, thanks very much.  

INDIES:  LIKE CRAZY expanded nicely to 108 theatres with what should be about a $5K average in each.  MARGIN CALL continues to hold extremely well, with a $2500 average at 173, and now seems like it should get to $5M in theatrical revenues alone (not counting the simultaneous VOD release).  THE SKIN I LIVE IN expanded to 111 theatres and had an OK $2500 average.  MELANCHOLIA expanded to 56 theatres with a pretty good $5500 average.   MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE isn't finding much traction with a $2100 average in 180.  TAKE SHELTER will need some awards support for Michael Shannon, as it fell to a $1400 average in 74.  In smaller openings, ANOTHER HAPPY DAY, boosted by Q&As with Ellen Barkin (a producer as well as star), made it to an average of about $4500 in 2 theatres, which was a lot better than TYRANNOSAUR's $1500 average in 5.

Next week:  an odd mix of big-budget family movies and some of the year's most serious Oscar hopefuls.

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WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES November 18-20

Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), Twilight Saga Breaking Dawn Part 1 is opening just short of $140 million in its first weekend, while Happy Feet Two looks like a $22 million opening.  The top 12 films this weekend should do a combined $217 million, up 16% from the same weekend last year -- a very good showing but not as strong as it was looking yesterday.

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the openers are headed for: Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 ($292 milllion -- see complete track for prior Twilight films below) and Happy Feet Two ($85 million). 

Among the second week films, Immortals has been downgraded ($78 million), as has Jack and Jill ($64 million).  J. Edgar is holding steady at its previous estimate ($34 million).

Tower Heist drifted down a bit again ($71 million) and A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas is locking in on its final number ($36 million). 

Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 will average $34,350 per theater (a well above average mark) at 4,061 theaters (for $139.5 million from Friday-Sunday).  Happy Feet Two is opening with an only slightly above average $6,100 per theater at 3,606 theaters ($22.0 million).  In limited release, The Descendants (starring George Clooney and from Sideways director Alexander Payne) is opening with a solid $42,150 per theater at 29 theaters ($1.2 million).    





November 18-20, 2011                Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 

Twilight Breaking Dawn 1  (Sum)     $139.5            $292
Happy Feet Two             (WB)     $22.0             $ 85
Immortals                 (Rel)     $12.5   -62%      $ 78-
Jack and Jill            (Sony)     $12.0   -52%      $ 64
Puss in Boots          (DW/Par)     $10.7   -57%      $165-
Tower Heist               (Uni)     $ 6.9   -46%      $ 71-
J. Edgar                   (WB)     $ 5.9   -47%      $ 34
A Very Harold & Kumar      (WB)     $ 2.9   -51%      $ 36
In Time                   (Fox)     $ 1.6   -59%      $ 37
Paranormal Activity 3     (Par)     $ 1.0   -72%      $103


Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Twilight Saga Film Track            Opening   Domestic  Overseas
                                    Weekend    Total     Total

Twilight                11.21.2008   $ 69.6    $192.8    $199.8

Twilight New Moon       11.20.2009   $142.8    $296.6    $413.2

Twilight Eclipse         6.30.2010   $ 64.8    $300.5    $397.9



Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a very good $217 million total, up 16% from the same calendar weekend last year (when Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 opened to $125 million).         

Top 12 Films: Weekend #46



     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011  $217  Twilight Breaking Dawn 1 $139.5, Happy Feet Two $22
2010  $186  Harry Potter Deathly Hallows 1 $125     
2009  $250  Twilight New Moon $143, Blind Side $34

2008  $157  Twilight $70, Bolt $26
2007  $151  Enchanted $34, This Christmas $18, Hitman $13
2007-10
Avg   $186 



Next Weekend
 

Opening next week are Arthur Christmas from Sony, The Muppets from Disney and Hugo from Paramount.  Those movies will be compared to Tangled ($49 million opening weekend), Burlesque ($12 million), Love and Other Drugs ($10 million) and Faster ($8.5 million).

International numbers will be posted as soon as possible, and Monday we will have official numbers for the Friday-Sunday domestic grosses.
 

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BIJOU BOXOFFICE: FRIDAY STUDIO SCORECARD



BREAKING DAWN PART 1:  Christmas comes but once a year, and for Summit that day is the 24 hours after a Twilight movie opens.  (A little credit to the studio, too, for not fudging the numbers, which would have been easy enough to do since they're so close, in order to claim a franchise record for Friday.)  The $72M Breaking Dawn earned was a bit more front-loaded from Thursday midnight screenings than New Moon's $72.7M had been in 2009 (42% compared to 36%), and the same may well apply to Friday's chunk of the 3-day weekend total.  New Moon's Friday was just about 51% of its $142.8M weekend, so Breaking Dawn 1 might end up around $135M, which would make it the 5th or 6th highest opening weekend ever (Pirates of the Caribbean 2 is at $135.8M).


HAPPY FEET 2:  The original Happy Feet, somewhat unusually these days for an animated film, made more in the US than overseas ($198M vs $187M).  If that holds for the sequel, it'll be bad news for Warners, since Happy 2 is headed for an opening only half as big as its predecessor's.  Even worse, while the Thanksgiving weekend competition in 2006 only featured one weak family movie (Deck the Halls), this year Happy 2 has a tidal wave heading straight for it, with The Muppets, Arthur Christmas and Hugo all arriving on Wednesday.  That may well mean a less healthy multiple, and the possibility that the film could very unhappily fail to reach $100M in the US.

THE DESCENDANTS:  A strong but not overwhelming opening for  a presumed Oscar front-runner, with what should be around a $40K average in each of 26 theatres.  That's considerably less than Black Swan's $80K average at 18 last year, although it compares well with The King's Speech's $31K at 19.  But we'll know more about the boxoffice prospects of Descendants quickly, because it's expanding into 500+ theatres on Wednesday.

Holdovers:  Not a pretty picture.  IMMORTALS will dive by 60%, which is no surprise.  But awful word of mouth has quickly caught up with JACK AND JILL, which will drop from its weak opening by at least 50%.  It's unlikely to get past $75M, which will make it Adam Sandler's lowest-grossing comedy vehicle since Little Nicky in 2000 (which made less but also cost a lot less than J&J's $80M budget).  Audiences were similarly unimpressed with J. EDGAR, which is looking at a 50% drop for the weekend, worse than Hereafter had last year.  The picture seems unlikely to make more than $30-35M in total, meaning some respectful nominations but no real Oscar momentum. PUSS IN BOOTS took a big hit for the first time in its run, and should drop 50% this weekend.

Indies:  No big titles wanted to get in the way of The Descendants this weekend.  But LIKE CRAZY expanded to 108 theatres and should do a nice $5K in each.  And sadly, the excellent but difficult to watch TYRANNOSAUR (which is not about dinosaurs) failed to get the reviews it desperately needed, especially in the NY Times, and may not even manage $2K in each of its 5 theatres.

Next Weekend:  As noted above, an avalanche of family entertainment invades for the holiday, with The Muppets, Arthur Christmas and Hugo fighting it out.  Also, some major award hopefuls will make their appearances:  David Cronenberg's A DANGEROUS METHOD and Michelle Williams' awards express MY WEEK WITH MARILYN arrive on Wednesday (the latter in a semi-wide run of a few hundred theatres), while THE ARTIST opens on Friday. 

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THE BIJOU: Early Friday Boxoffice


Deadline has preliminary numbers for Friday, and they suggest BREAKING DAWN PART 1 will continue to narrowly edge out the opening weekend of New Moon in 2009, with a $73.5M Friday (compared to $72.7M for New Moon).  If the number holds, and if Breaking Dawn 1 doesn't turn out to be more front-loaded than New Moon, that movie's pattern would lead to a $144M weekend, which would be the biggest 3-day opening of the franchise (Eclipse opened over the 5-day 4th of July weekend last year) and the 4th biggest opening weekend ever, behind only the final Harry Potter, The Dark Knight, and Spider-Man 3.  


The news was far less good for HAPPY FEET 2, which is looking at a very blah $6M Friday, half what the original Happy Feet did in 2006.  If Feet 2 follows the same trajectory as the original, that could mean a bleak $20-22M weekend--with giant competition from no less than 3 new family films arriving in the market on Wednesday.  

THE DESCENDANTS seems to be off to a strong start with $300K in only 29 theatres, heading for a $1M+ weekend.  That would be a very good $35K per-theatre average, although it pales next to the $80K per-theatre number Fox Searchlight pulled last year in 18 theatres with its Black Swan opening.

Holdovers are looking overwhelmed by the Twilight franchise juggernaut.  IMMORTALS, not surprisingly, is facing a 60% plunge to a $12M second weekend, and JACK AND JILL isn't much better, falling at least 50% to $11-12M, which guarantees it will be Adam Sandler's biggest franchise flop in a decade.  A little more surprisingly, J. EDGAR, despite its older audience, is heading for a $6M 2d weekend, down a heavy 45% that's worse than Hereafter's second weekend drop.  Boxoffice like that won't help it stay alive in the Oscar race.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis...
 

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THE BIJOU WEEKEND BOXOFFICE FOOTNOTES - November 13


IMMORTALS is claiming the same drop for Sunday as it had on Saturday, so that total may come down in actuals.  Even so, as long as the final amount is over $30M (which it certainly should be), that's a win for Relativity, no matter what the movie's budget actually was.  Immortals also launched widely overseas, including in such important territories as China, the UK, Germany, Italy, Japan and South Korea, and should hit a solid $36M there.  


JACK AND JILL's $26M opening is the lowest for any Adam Sandler comedy vehicle since The Wedding Singer in 1998.  Sony seems to be counting on a multiple like the one that got Bedtime Stories over $100M in 2008, but this picture will likely be long out of theatres before the lucrative Christmas week bonanza kicks in, and J&J will be one of Sandler's lowest-grossing pictures ever.  Is that meaningful, or did audiences just sense what a stinker this one was?  We won't know until Sandler's next movie opens (I Hate You, Dad in June).

If you want to know what "older-skewing" means, look no further than J. EDGAR:  two-thirds of its audience was over 50 years old.  Although an $11.5M opening is nothing to cheer about, that audience is generally in no rush to get to theatres (it takes a while to maneuver those walkers), and Warners is hoping for a slow build that lasts through the end of the year.  Last year's Hereafter dipped 47% in its second weekend, and that was the end of it, as it only reached $33M in total--J. Edgar will need to hold better than that.

PUSS IN BOOTS had another great hold in its final weekend before kiddie movie competition arrives.  TOWER HEIST's 45% drop seals its fate as a money-loser, unless overseas audiences take to it in a big way.  A VERY HAROLD & KUMAR 3D XMAS was, as expected, a one-weekend-and-out proposition, and despite the 3D ticket prices, it may not even get to the $38M grossed by the last picture in the series.  PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3 went over $100M, and has a shot at exceeding $108M and becoming the highest-grossing of the franchise.

In limited release, ANONYMOUS plummeted, and is unlikely even to reach $5M on a $35M budget.  MARGIN CALL expanded a bit more to 199 theaters, and should have an average of around $3K.  It could get to $5M in theatrical alone (not counting VOD), which would be a triumph for a picture that cost $3.5M and has spent very little on marketing; in addition, distributor Roadside Attractions has decided to make a well-deserved awards run for the film, so it's all good.  

MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE almost doubled its theatre count to 183 and saw little incremental income with a $2700 average.  LIKE CRAZY widened to 70 theatres at a promising $7500 average.  THE SKIN I LIVE IN increased to 91 theatres at a $3400 average.  TAKE SHELTER seems to have reached its limit (barring a strong showing by Michael Shannon in critics' awards) with a $1600 average at 82.  

The only notable indie opening was Lars Von Trier's MELANCHOLIA (also on VOD and HDMovie Net), which did a very nice $14K in each of 19 theatres.  Werner Herzog's death-penalty documentary INTO THE ABYSS had a $4200 average at 12.  These will likely be dwarfed next week by the arrival of THE DESCENDANTS, which will open in 5 theatres on Wednesday and then go to 27 on Friday.

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WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES November 11-13

Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), Immortals ($32 million) will beat Jack and Jill ($26 million).  Keep in mind Immortals is playing on many fewer theaters than the Adam Sandler comedy and has a much better per theater number.  J. Edgar is playing at even fewer theaters and has the worst per theater tally of the three openers, surprisingly.  The weekend is looking like a $130 million total for the top 12 films, up 16% from the same weekend last year.

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the openers are headed for: Immortals ($90 million), Jack and Jill ($78 million) and J. Edgar ($33 million).

Tower Heist is holding steady in its second weekend ($78 million) and A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas has been downgraded a touch ($39 million). 

Thanks to another great weekend (its third), Puss in Boots has been upgraded again ($179 million), while In Time is holding steady ($40 million). 
 
Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, Immortals will average $10,300 per theater (a well above average mark) at 3,112 theaters (for $32.0 million from Friday-Sunday).  Jack and Jill is opening with an above average $7,600 per theater at 3,438 theaters ($26.0 million).  J. Edgar is opening with a mediocre $6,000 per theater at 1,910 theaters ($11.5 million).    





November 11-13, 2011                Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 

Immortals                 (Rel)     $32.0             $ 90
Jack and Jill            (Sony)     $26.0             $ 78
Puss in Boots          (DW/Par)     $25.5   -23%      $179+
Tower Heist               (Uni)     $13.2   -45%      $ 78
J. Edgar                   (WB)     $11.5             $ 33
A Very Harold & Kumar      (WB)     $ 5.9   -54%      $ 39
In Time                   (Fox)     $ 4.2   -45%      $ 40
Paranormal Activity 3     (Par)     $ 3.6   -57%      $106-
Footloose                 (Par)     $ 2.7   -39%      $ 56 
Real Steel             (DW/Dis)     $ 2.0   -42%      $ 88 


Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  



Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a weak $130 million total, up 16% from the same calendar weekend last year (when Unstoppable opened to $23 million and two others opened to a combined $21 million).         

Top 12 Films: Weekend #45

     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011  $135  Immortals $32, Jack and Jill $26, J. Edgar $11
2010  $112  Unstoppable $23, Skyline $12, Morning Glory $9    
2009  $129  2012 $65, Pirate Radio $3

2008  $138  Quantum of Solace $68
2007  $ 93  Beowulf $28, Mr Magorium's Wonder Emporium $10
2007-10
Avg   $118 



Next Weekend
Opening next week are Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn (Part One) from Summit, Happy Feet Two from Warner Brothers and The Descendants from Fox Searchlight.  Those movies will be compared to Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 ($125 million opening weekend) and The Next Three Days ($6.5 million).

International numbers will be posted as soon as possible, and Monday we will have official numbers for the Friday-Sunday domestic grosses.

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THE BIJOU: Early Weekend Boxoffice


Deadline has preliminary Saturday boxoffice numbers, and IMMORTALS seems to have followed the fanboy-genre pattern of extreme front-loading, with a 2d day reported as $10.6M, down 25% from Friday.  It should still win the weekend easily with a $30-32M total, but considering the much bigger movies about to flood the market, it's unlikely to reach $100M domestically.


JACK AND JILL had a modest Saturday bump of about 15%, and should reach $25-27M for its opening weekend, in line with its Friday result.  J. EDGAR had a significantly higher Saturday than Friday, which was to be expected given its older audience, and should also hit its $12M mark.

PUSS IN BOOTS's Friday was skewed high by the Veterans Day holiday, giving it less of a Saturday bump than would normally have been expected.  Nevertheless, it's headed for an excellent $27M, down only about 20% from last weekend.  TOWER HEIST held fairly well, down about 40% from last weekend, but that's not enough to make up for its slow start.  

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis...
 

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THE BIJOU: Friday Boxoffice Footnotes - November 12


Whether or not IMMORTALS holds together at the boxoffice after its opening few days, the impressive launch is good news for Relativity, which is trying to prove it can survive as a standalone distributor of Hollywood-level movies.  That doesn't necessarily mean Immortals will hit profit (its financial picture is complicated by various distributors handling it around the world, and uncertainty about what the budget actually was), but it does mean Relativity can claim a #1 opening for a picture with no huge stars to promote.  (Also happy:  Warner Bros, which can now say that its new Superman has already been the star of a hit.)


The JACK AND JILL opening looks to be in line with Adam Sandler's last family outing, 2008's Bedtime Stories, which started with a $27M weekend.  However, that picture opened on Christmas Day and had the benefit of the giant boxoffice week that follows, resulting in a total that was 4x its first 3 days.  J&J probably won't have a trajectory anything like that, which will likely make this--amazingly enough--his first "non-serious" starring vehicle not to hit $100M since Little Nicky in 2000.  In fairness, it will be far more successful than that flop, although it does bear the burden of a $80M budget (which means total worldwide costs of probably $200M+ once marketing is added in).

J. EDGAR was always intended as a longterm play that would stay in theatres throughout the holiday/awards season.  Its opening looks to be in line with Hereafter's $12M, but that picture got no awards traction and petered out at $33M (although it made more than double that overseas).  J. Edgar should open better than either Invictus or Changeling, but neither of those got to $40M either (even with a Best Actress nomination for Angelina Jolie on the latter).  The movie's fate will rest on word of mouth and how it fares in early critics' awards.

The great news for DreamWorks Animation is that PUSS IN BOOTS was actually up from last Friday (thanks in part to the Veterans Day holiday), meaning another solid hold for the weekend.  The less-great news is that an avalanche of kids movies is about to fall, with Happy Feet 2 arriving Friday, followed less than a week later by The Muppets, Hugo and Arthur Christmas, making this the movie's last wide-open weekend.

TOWER HEIST isn't going to have a terrible drop (that's the advantage of an older-skewing audience), but seems unlikely to get much past $75M, which won't pay the bills once marketing costs are figured in.  The overseas openings to date haven't been promising either.  

We're still a couple of weeks away from the explosion of indie movies that will arrive for awards season, but Lars Von Trier's MELANCHOLIA, riding mostly excellent reviews, should do around $15K in each of 18 theatres (it's also available on VOD and aired last week on the HDMovie network).  LIKE CRAZY expanded to 70 theatres and should have a pretty good $8500 average.

Although as noted the family holiday season kicks off next weekend with HAPPY FEET 2 (the original opened with $41M in 2006), next week is all about THE TWILIGHT SAGA:  BREAKING DAWN PART 1, which should easily own every multiplex in the country as of 12:01AM Thursday night.  New Moon, the last chapter of the saga to open on a Friday, holds the 4th highest opening weekend of all time with a staggering $143M in its first 3 days (including $26M from Thursday midnight shows), so that's the number to beat.    

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FRIDAY NOVEMBER 11 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

THERE IS A GOD!  Adam Sandler's latest movie in which he plays a brother and a sister will not be the #1 movie of the weekend.  While not a flop, it failed to open to the $30-35 million his fans usually pony up.  Best of all, the film will not come close to the $100 million usually generated by his work in North America.  An end to an era?  Not at all.  But at least a significant portion of the audience is coming to their senses.  Immortals was the big surprise, on track to take the weekend crown by a mile, and Puss in Boots rolls on, down only 20% or so again this weekend.  Total volume for the weekend is looking like $135 million, up 21% from the same weekend last year and up 15% from the weekend's average the last four years.


Immortals blew past its forecast ($15.0 million Friday for an expected $36 million this weekend versus a forecast of $22.5 million). The 300-clone from Relativity is headed for $102 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate.  International numbers for all recent films will be in our overseas round-up late Sunday.  Critics have been not been particularly supportive (37% positive at RottenTomatoes).     


Jack and Jill slightly exceeded its forecast ($9.85 million Friday for an estimated $26.5 million opening weekend, compared to a $22.5 million prediction).  The latest Adam Sandler comedy is headed for $79 million in North America.  Critics nationwide have been repulsed (only 3% positive at RottenTomatoes).

J. Edgar will open at expectations ($4.25 million Friday for an estimated $11.5 million opening weekend, compared to a $12.0 million prediction).  Playing in far fewer theaters (1,910) than the other openers (over 3,000+ each), this movie really should have had a solid per theater number (Clint Eastwood, diCaprio, historical drama, Oscar hopes).  But J. Edgar will average a little over $6,000 per theater, far below the $11,500 figure for Immortals and below even Jack and Jill's $7,700 average.  Yikes.  

  
Down a preliminary 20% from last weekend (another very good hold), Puss in Boots is still very much in the mix, with its Domestic Final estimate upgraded yet again to $149 million.  

In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
  
November 11-13, 2011    Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early   Friday  Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final*

Puss In Boots (DW/Par)   [$25.0]    $28.0   $ 9.0     $149+
Jack and Jill (Sony)     [$22.5]    $26.5   $ 9.8     $ 79
Immortals (Rel)          [$22.5]    $36.0   $15.0     $102
Tower Heist (Uni)        [$13.0]    $13.7   $ 4.9     $ 80
J. Edgar (WB)            [$12.0]    $11.5   $ 4.2     $ 33
A Very Harold & Kumar WB [$ 6.0]    $ 5.7   $ 2.3     $ 38-
In Time (Fox)            [$ 4.5]    $ 4.2   $         $ 40

Paranormal Activity 3 Par[$ 4.0]    $ 3.7   $ 1.4     $106-
Footloose (Par)          [$ 3.2]    $ 2.8   $ 1.0     $ 56
Real Steel (DW/DIS)      [$ 2.2]    $ 1.9   $ 0.7     $ 87

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade. 


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a weak $135 million total, up 21% from the same calendar weekend last year (when Unstoppable opened to $23 million and two others opened to a combined $21 million).         

Top 12 Films: Weekend #45


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011  $135  Immortals $36, Jack and Jill $26, J. Edgar $12
2010  $112  Unstoppable $23, Skyline $12, Morning Glory $9    
2009  $129  2012 $65, Pirate Radio $3

2008  $138  Quantum of Solace $68
2007  $ 93  Beowulf $28, Mr Magorium's Wonder Emporium $10
2007-10
Avg   $118 



Next Weekend
Opening next week are Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn (Part One) from Summit, Happy Feet Two from Warner Brothers and The Descendants from Fox Searchlight.  Those movies will be compared to Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 ($125 million opening weekend) and The Next Three Days ($6.5 million). 

Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.

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THE BIJOU: Early Friday Boxoffice


The Hollywood Reporter has preliminary boxoffice numbers for Friday, and early indications are good for IMMORTALS, which appears to have already earned $13.5-14M (including $1.4M from Thursday midnight screenings).  That should get it to an overperforming $33-35M for the weekend.  A couple of cautions about these extrapolations, though:  Friday was Veterans Day, which means unusually high numbers for the day and a weekend boxoffice multiple potentially lower than usual, and Immortals' kind of fanboy appeal also often leads to a front-loaded weekend.


It looks to be a tight battle for second place over the weekend, with JACK AND JILLand PUSS IN BOOTS both at $8-9M on Friday.  Both could be in the $24-26M range for the weekend, and either could pull ahead.

As expected, J. EDGAR (in a much smaller 1900 theatre run) is considerably behind, aiming for a long run with around $3.5-4M on Friday on its way to $10-12M for the weekend.  That would be in line with director Clint Eastwood's Hereafter last year, which made $12M in its first wide weekend at 2200 theatres, ultimately leading to a $33M US gross (and more than double that overseas).

TOWER HEIST had an OK but not exceptional hold with around $4.5M on Friday for probably a $13-14M second weekend--certainly not enough to suggest strong word of mouth will turn things around for the movie.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis...
  

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THE BIJOU REVIEW: "Immortals"



IMMORTALS:  Watch It At Home - Brainless, Violent and Weirdly Spectacular

There's no question that the director Tarsem Singh has an eye.  Singh started as a director of commercials and music videos--his most famous is probably REM's "Losing My Religion"--and his features The Cell and The Fall both had striking, memorable visuals.  Both also shared idiotic, barely comprehensible screenplays, and that brings us to his new film IMMORTALS.  

Immortals is no more, and often quite a bit less, than a rip-off of 300, complete with CG sets, nominally heterosexual heroes (who caress each other's mostly bare bodies with their eyes when they're not chopping them apart), and R-rated levels of flying, bloody heads as well as other body parts.  (This time in 3D!)  300, though, had some narrative punch, a few actors who knew what they were doing (Gerard Butler, Lena Headey, Dominic West), and a relatively simple narrative point.  Immortals seems to have been written (the script is credited to Charles and Vlas Parlapanides) on the back of the same packet that contained designer hallucinogenics ingested by the director and his designers.

Immortals does have a clearly identifiable hero and villain.  The former is Theseus (Henry Cavil, soon to be seen as Zach Snyder's Superman), a humble but extremely buff peasant who is apparently only able to function with his shirt off.  His opponent, sort of Ancient Greece's Blofeld, is King Hyperion (Mickey Rourke, chewing scenery like it's 15 minutes before closing time in a Vegas buffet), who gains possession of some kind of magic bow that can shoot an infinite number of phony-looking CG cartoon arrows into an infinite number of computer-generated extras.  With this weapon, he plans to take over not just the world, but also the realm of the gods, here portrayed as a group of extremely bad actors  (Luke Evans, Isabel Lucas, Kellan Lutz, Steve Byers, Corey Sevier), who look down at the earthly goings-on while acting like aristocrats in a collectivist propaganda video, occasionally unleashing their own fake-looking CG powers to help humanity out.  Also, there's Frieda Pinto as a seer who can tell the future only as long as she remains a virgin, and you don't have to watch Henry Cavil carve up bad guys with his shirt off for long to figure out how that's going to end up.

Once you forget about Immortals making any sense at all, and the flood of blood and hacked-up bodies stops registering, there is a loony pleasure to be had from the movie.  Singh is no storyteller, and little things like "credibility" mean little to him, but he sure as hell knows how to create an image.  Working with cinematographer Brendan Galvin, production designer Tom Foden, costume designer Eiko Ishioka, and an enormous visual effects team, Singh creates a universe of precipitous cliffs, endless tunnels, impossible magic prisons and outfits that look like Halloween in West Hollywood.  None of it is in any way believable or real, but it's often quite gorgeous to look at.

Actors performing on digital sets need special care from their director, since they don't have the usual ability to know what will be sharing the frame with them.  Clearly Singh has little interest in such matters; the stars are merely figures moving in his digital landscapes and wearing his outrageous costumes.  So it's unfair to put too much weight on the performances on view or lack thereof, but we can say that neither Cavil nor Pinto seems to be a self-starter when it comes to their acttng abilities, and that the cast members playing the gods were hopefully well paid. 

Immortals is ultimately boring, as any work of abstract art is likely to be after staring at it for 110 minutes.  Viewed in short bursts, however, when flicking through cable channels, its sometimes dazzling style could be seen to best advantage.

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THE BIJOU: "Immortals" Stay Up Late


The new 3D action-fest IMMORTALS got off to a reasonably good start with $1.4M in Thursday midnight screenings.  This isn't anything spectacular, but it's slightly higher than the $1.3M RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES made in its midnight runs, and far better than the $550K pulled in last week by A VERY HAROLD & KUMAR 3D XMAS.


A normal trajectory for a fanboy-fueled fantasy adventure like Immortals would see a very strong Friday, then little if any increase on Saturday and steady drops after that.  But Immortals benefits from having no direct action competition in the market, with family-oriented comedy in JACK AND JILL and PUSS IN BOOTS, and an older crowd gravitating to TOWER HEIST. 

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis!
 

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WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS November 11-13

Adam Sandler opens Jack and Jill this weekend, and it will be an uphill battle for it to displace Puss in Boots from the top of the box office.  Immortals will be challenging Jack and Jill for the second spot on the chart.  Box office volume for the weekend will probably be up around 6% over the same weekend last year.        


Opening at more than 3,000 theaters in North America by Sony, Jack and Jill should average a solid $7.400 per theater (for $22.5 million for Friday-Sunday).  (All films the last two years have averaged $5,525 per theater in their opening weekend.)  Shockingly, Sony has not made the latest Adam Sandler masterpiece available to critics -- so there are no reviews at RottenTomatoes currently.  Jack and Jill should be on track for around $70 million in North America when it leaves theaters.    

Also at about 3,000 theaters, Immortals from Relativity should average a similar $7,400 per theater (for $22.5 million this weekend).  The R-rated fantasy action film has not been released for reviews.  This movie is probably headed for around $60 million domestically.     

At about 1,900 theaters, J. Edgar from Warner Brothers should average a fairly soft $6,300 per theater (for $12.0 million this weekend).  The R-rated historical drama is running at only 42% positive reviews, far lower than Clint Eastwood and Warners would expect.  This movie is probably headed for around $35 million domestically.    

                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
November 11-13                   Positive   Weekend   Total*

Jack and Jill          Sony  PG    n/a      $22.5     $ 70
Immortals               Rel  R     n/a      $22.5     $ 60

J. Edgar                 WB  R     42%      $12.0     $ 35

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


The third weekend of Puss in Boots should be a very good $25 million, enough to stay at #1.   

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
November 11-13                  vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*

Puss in Boots       DW/Par        -24%      $25.0     $170
Tower Heist            Uni        -46%      $13.0     $ 85
A Very Harold & Kumar   WB        -55%      $ 6.0     $ 44 
In Time                Fox        -43%      $ 4.5     $ 39 
Paranormal Activity 3  Par        -55%      $ 4.0     $113
Footloose              Par        -28%      $ 3.2     $ 55
Real Steel            Sony        -37%      $ 2.2     $ 88


Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $118 million total, ranking 28th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $112 million, and the same weekend in 2009 was $129 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like $118 million, up 6% from this weekend last year and even with the four-year average for this weekend.       


This Weekend Last Two Years



11/12/10

 Unstoppable FOX PG13 Denzel Washington Chris Pine 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $23  Actual: $23
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $77  Actual: $81
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $86

 Morning Glory PAR PG13 Harrison Ford Rachel McAdams 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $12  Actual: $9
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $33  Actual: $31
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $28

 Skyline UNI PG13 Eric Balfour Scottie Thompson 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $22  Actual: $12
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $20  Actual: $21
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $46

11/13/09

 2012 SONY PG13 John Cusack Woody Harrelson 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $55  Actual: $65
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $164  Actual: $166
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $604

 Pirate Radio UNI R Philip Seymour Hoffman Bill Nighy 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $4  Actual: $3
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $9  Actual: $8
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $28



Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up as a whole (based on Friday's early numbers), on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.

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