This weekend looks to be very weak. The projected total volume of $85 million would be down 29% versus the same weekend last year (when Jackass 3-D opened to a staggering $50 million) and down 18% from the average comparable weekend the last four years. It's lazy remake weekend starting Friday, with two of the three openers retreads. Footloose will battle the second weekend of Real Steel for the top spot of a surprisingly soft weekend. Opening at more than 3,300 theaters in North America by Paramount, Footloose should average a very banal $5,400 per theater (for $18 million for Friday-Sunday). (All films the last two years have averaged $5,525 per theater in their opening weekend.) Footloose has received mostly favorable reviews, with 73% positive at RottenTomatoes. This remake musical/dance film should be on track for around $57 million in North America when it leaves theaters.
At about 2,900 theaters, The Thing from Universal should average a scary $4,000 per theater (for $12 million this weekend). The sci-fi/horror remake has a poor 35% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes so far. This movie is probably headed for around $27 million domestically.
At only about 2,200 theaters, The Big Year from Fox should average a weak $3,400 per theater (for $7.5 million this weekend). The Jack Black-Steve Martin comedy has no reviews at RottenTomatoes currently. The dreaded not previewed for critics situation. This movie is probably headed for around $18 million domestically.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
October 14-16 Positive Weekend Total*
Footloose Par PG13 73% $18.0 $ 57
The Thing Uni R 35% $12.0 $ 27
The Big Year Fox PG n/a $ 7.5 $ 18
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
The second weekend of Real Steel should be the only significant player this weekend among the holdovers. Look for the futuristic robots to battle the singing and dancing of Footloose for the top spot. But whoever wins will be king of a pretty small hill.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
October 14-16 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Real Steel Sony -41% $16.0 $ 81
Ides of March DW/DIS -38% $ 6.5 $ 38
Dolphin Tale WB -29% $ 6.5 $ 74
Moneyball Sony -33% $ 5.0 $ 71
50/50 Summit -35% $ 3.7 $ 35
Courageous Sony -38% $ 3.0 $ 26
Lion King 3D Dis -43% $ 2.6 $104
Dream House Uni -49% $ 2.3 $ 18
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $103 million total, ranking 37th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend's total was $120 million and the same weekend in 2009 was $128 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like $85 million, down a whopping 29% from this weekend last year and down 18% from the four-year average for this weekend.
This Weekend Last Two Years
10/15/10
Jackass 3-D PAR R Johnny Knoxville
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $29 Actual: $50
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $138 Actual: $117
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $53
Red SUMMIT PG13 Bruce Willis Morgan Freeman
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $18 Actual: $22
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $84 Actual: $90
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $96
10/16/09
Paranormal Activity PAR/ DW R
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $18 Actual: $20
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $124 Actual: $108
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $85
Where the Wild Things Are WB PG Paul Dano Benicio Del Toro
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $33 Actual: $33
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $86 Actual: $77
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $23
Law Abiding Citizen OVERTURE R Jamie Foxx Gerard Butler
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $11 Actual: $21
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $68 Actual: $73
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $41
The Stepfather SONY PG13
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $9 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $30 Actual: $29
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $2
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform. Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up as a whole (based on Friday's early numbers), on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.
0 comments:
Post a Comment