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Showing posts with label fast five. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fast five. Show all posts

A MIDSUMMER STUDIO'S REPORT CARD: Universal


With a summer movie season bracketed by the first weekend in May on one end, and Labor Day on the other, we've reached the midpoint of 2011's array of blockbusters, and for the next week, here at SHOWBUZZDAILY, we'll be providing our judgments on how the studios are doing.  US Grosses and Overseas Grosses are as of July 10, 2011.

Today:  Kabletown Studios



MOVIES IN RELEASE

FAST FIVE
US Release:  April 29
US Gross:  $208,769,000
Overseas Gross:  $392,831,354
Worldwide Total:  $601,600,354

BRIDESMAIDS
US Release:  May 13
US Gross:  $158,186,000
Overseas Gross:  $48,500,000
Worldwide Total:  $206,686,000 

BEGINNERS (Focus Features)
US Release:  June 3
US Gross:  $2,697,327
Overseas Gross:  n/a (Focus only controls certain territories)
Worldwide Total: n/a

LARRY CROWNE
US Release:  July 1
US Gross:  $26,526,000
Overseas Gross:  $8,400,000
Worldwide Total:: $34,926,000

THE MONEY
 
Universal's summer score comes with a big asterisk:  properly speaking, FAST FIVE's April 29 opening placed it outside Hollywood's "summer."  Deleting that $600M from its numbers would make quite a difference.  But since the film opened just a week before the summer's "official" start with Thor, it was marketed as a summer movie and had the bulk of its playing time during summer, it (sort-of) counts.  Financially the picture was a bonanza, the franchise's highest grosser both domestically and overseas, and a particularly huge hit internationally--it could end up doubling the second-highest overseas gross of the series.  (Needless to say, a sixth installment is on the way.) 

BRIDESMAIDS is a much smaller hit, but an even bigger surprise for the studio:  the low-budgeted R-rated comedy with no stars has turned into the biggest smash ever from Judd Apatow's production company, and kicked off a summer of R-rated comedy success.  Since no one except Apatow will get a large back-end on this picture, there should be plenty of profit for the studio.

LARRY CROWNE is a flop, but Universal was strictly a distributor on it, with no financial investment beyond marketing costs.  Even so, the picture  may take a while to hit breakeven, but Universal is in much better shape than the film's financiers.

On the limited release side, BEGINNERS is taking its time expanding beyond art houses--this weekend it added 47 theatres for a total of 155, and saw its per-theatre gross decline to a still-acceptable $3500 or so.  If it can play out the rest of the summer, it could develop into a modest success. 

THE QUALITY

Fast Five successfully pushed the franchise into the heist genre, and may have had the smartest casting idea of the summer by adding The Rock to the movie's crew.  The result wasn't brainy, but it was fun.

Showbuzzdaily was in the minority on Bridesmaids (89% positive on Rotten Tomatoes), which was undeniably enjoyed by vast numbers of moviegoers.  Director Paul Feig, writer/star Kristen Wiig and her co-stars are all big talents, so more power to them.  Larry Crowne, on the other hand, was a misfire that left a bad aftertaste.

Beginners is a marvelous, very little movie that probably won't reach a wide audience, but is at least being seen. 

STILL TO COME

COWBOYS & ALIENS - July 29:  Universal can't seem to figure out how to sell this big-budget, high-concept whatsit.  There have been multiple trailers, some playing up the western genre, some the star power of Daniel Craig and Harrison Ford, others the scifi special effects.  That kind of muddled sell usually doesn't help at the boxoffice.

THE CHANGE-UP - August 5: Jason Bateman's new hit with Horrible Bosses may boost this R-rated body-switch comedy, which seemed doomed after Ryan Reynolds failed to thrill anyone as the Green Lantern.  Although it follows Friends With Benefits and Crazy Stupid Love in the summer line-up, this one could skew more to a male audience.   

ONE DAY (Focus) - August 19:   This initially seemed like a no-brainer:  Anne Hathaway in a romantic comedy drama based on a bestselling (and extremely good) book, from the director of An Education.  The decision to push opening day from midsummer to the last couple of weeks before Labor Day doesn't bode well, though.  

MIDSUMMER GRADES:

THE MONEY:  Split grade -- B+ if Cowboys & Aliens succeeds, C+ if it flops.

THE QUALITY:  C+, higher for the rest of the world that loved Bridesmaids.

Click HERE to read the other studio report cards.

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THE BIJOU: Universal's Status Stays Quo



The periodic rumor that Universal Pictures is due for a major shake-up can be put to rest... for now.  It's been announced that President and COO Ron Meyer has signed a new deal that runs through 2015.  Assuming Meyer stays through his entire contract (always less than a certainty when it comes to studio headx), he will have been running Universal for a solid 20 years, an amazing run in this business.  (One would need multiple hands and feet to count the organizational changes at Universal's sister TV network NBC during that time.)  The studio's been having a strong summer, with FAST FIVE earning $600M worldwide and BRIDESMAIDS blowing past any and all expectations, proving itself the sleeper of the season.

The cynical might note that this announcement is being made before the openings of Universal's low-key LARRY CROWNE, likely to be very far behind TRANSFORMERS this weekend, and COWBOYS & ALIENS, a CG epic that still doesn't have its marketing message straight.  But those are questions for another day; for now, a salute to Meyer's remarkable longevity is due.

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WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES MAY 13-15: Bridesmaids Opens Solidly While Thor Remains #1

Solid opening for Bridesmaids, Priest disappoints, and Thor remains #1.  Nonetheless, the weekend is down only a bit versus last year, when Robin Hood opened and Iron Man 2's second weekend was #1.




The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that Bridesmaids should finish its run with $90 million domestic (with upside), while Priest should finish with around $30 million, if that.  Thor is now looking like $205 million, and Fast Five is locking in on $212 million.  After a surprisingly strong fifth weekend (go figure) Rio has been upgraded back to $147 million.  



Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, Bridesmaids opened with $24.4 million, averaging a solid $8,362 per theater at 2,918 theaters.  Priest opened with $14.5 million, playing on 2,864 theaters and averaging $5,063.      


May 13-15, 2011                     Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final*
Thor                      (Par)     $34.5   -48%      $205
Bridesmaids               (Uni)     $24.4             $ 90
Fast Five                 (Uni)     $19.5   -40%      $212
Priest                   (Sony)     $14.5             $ 32
Rio                       (Fox)     $ 8.0   - 6%      $147
Jumping the Broom        (Sony)     $ 7.3   -52%      $ 43
Something Borrowed         (WB)     $ 7.0   -50%      $ 38
Water for Elephants       (Fox)     $ 4.1   -32%      $ 58
Madea's Big Happy Family   (LG)     $ 2.2   -47%      $ 53
Soul Surfer              (Sony)     $ 1.8   -22%      $ 44

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade. 
 


Early International View

So far, Thor has now grossed $198 million overseas, while Fast Five is at $215 million total.  (Note: international numbers will be updated and tallied late Monday or early Tuesday.)
 

Total Weekend Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $125 million total, down 5%.  The weekend total is about $10 million higher than yesterday's because of across the board strength in Saturday movie attendance.  The year-to-date numbers will be updated tomorrow when the official weekend numbers are in. 


Top 12 Films: Weekend #19
   (millions)
     Volume
2011  $125  (
-11% vs 2007-10 average; -5% vs 2010) 

2007-10
Avg   $140 
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $131  Robin Hood $36, Letters to Juliet $13, Just Wright $8

2009  $131  Angels & Demons $46
2008  $126  Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian $55
2007  $174  Shrek the Third $122


Next Weekend

Opening next week is the period comedy Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides from Disney (the fourth in the series).  This blockbuster will be compared against Shrek Forever After's $71 million opening weekend on 5.21-23.2010....and don't forget the ill-fated MacGruber with $4 million the same weekend.  Next weekend will be a good opportunity for 2011 to get back on track with an up weekend.

To see how the weekend predictions stack up to the actual weekend performance, look at the table on the Friday box office post.  Also, check out Mitch Salem's review of Bridesmaids and Priest. 

On Monday we will have the final, official numbers for the weekend (actual numbers for all three days, no estimated Saturday or Sunday numbers), and on Tuesday look for the updated international numbers for films currently in release. 

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WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES MAY 6-8: Thor and Fast Five Carry the Weekend

Thor opens solidly but not enough to push the weekend past Iron Man 2's torrid pace last year.


The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that Thor should finish its run with $190 million, while Fast Five has been upgraded to $212 million and Rio has been downgraded slightly to $138 million.  The other openers, Jumping to Broom and Something Borrowed are in the $30-35 million total domestic range.


Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, Thor opened with $66.0 million, averaging a very good $16,700 per theater at 3,955 theaters.  Jumping the Broom opened with $13.7 million, playing on 2,035 theaters and averaging $6,700.  Something Borrowed opened with $13.2 million, averaging $4,500 per theater at 2,904 theaters.    


May 6-8, 2011                       Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final*
Thor                      (Par)     $66               $190
Fast Five                 (Uni)     $32.5   -62%      $212
Something Borrowed         (WB)     $13.2             $ 32
Jumping the Broom        (Sony)     $13.7             $ 35
Rio                       (Fox)     $ 8.2   -45%      $138
Water for Elephants       (Fox)     $ 5.6   -40%      $ 56
Madea's Big Happy Family   (LG)     $ 3.9   -60%      $ 54
Prom                      (Dis)     $ 2.4  
-49%      $ 12
Soul Surfer              (Sony)     $ 2.1   -38%      $ 41
Hoodwinked Too!         (Weins)     $ 1.9   -54%      $  9

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade. 
 

 
Early International View

So far, Thor has grossed $133 million overseas, while Fast Five is at $111 million total.  (Note: international numbers will be updated and tallied late Monday or early Tuesday.)
 


Total Weekend Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $152 million total, down 11% from last year but up 15% from the average for this weekend the last four years.  The year-to-date numbers will be updated tomorrow when the official weekend numbers are in. 


Top 12 Films: First Full Weekend of May
   (millions)
     Volume
2011  $152  (
+15% vs 2007-10 average; -11% vs 2010) 

2007-10
Avg   $132 
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $171  Iron Man 2 $128, Babies $2

2009  $143  Star Trek $75, Next Day Air $4
2008  $118  What Happens in Vegas $20, Speed Racer $18
2007  $ 96  28 Weeks Later $10, Georgia Rule $7, Delta Farce $3

 
The Week Ahead

Opening next week are the comedy Bridesmaids from Universal and action horror Priest from Sony.  These movies will be compared against Robin Hood's $36 million opening on 5.14.2010, Letters to Juliet with $13.5 million, and Just Wright with $8 million.  Next weekend will be a good opportunity for 2011 to get back on track with another up weekend.

On Monday we will have the final, official numbers for the weekend (actual numbers for all three days, no estimated Saturday or Sunday numbers), and on Tuesday look for the updated international numbers for films currently in release. 

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WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS MAY 6-8: Thor Will Be Big But Enough to Propel Another Up Weekend?

Thor appears to be headed for a solid opening but not enough to push the weekend up versus last year (when Iron Man 2 opened huge).  Two other openers, both romantic comedies, should have minimal impact.


Opening at over 3,500 theaters, Thor should average a very good $19,000 per theater (for $67 million total).  Although this is a very solid opening, it will be compared to Iron Man 2's $128 million opening weekend ($29,252 average at 4,380 theaters).  After three up weekends in a row, the box office should be down again this weekend.  Nonetheless, Thor currently boasts an 88% positive review number at RottenTomatoes, suggesting the film could play longer than most comic/ action films.   
The other opening films, two comedies aimed at women, should have minimal impact.  Playing at fewer theaters (about 1,900), Jumping the Broom should average $5,400 (slightly above the average number for all wide-release films).  With a largely African-American cast, this film has the potential to beat a modest $10 million opening weekend forecast if it clicks with African-Americans, a very loyal movie audience segment.  In contrast, Something Borrowed should average only $3,900 at 2,900 theaters.  This film feels like it is very likely to hit its $11 million forecast but then go away very quickly.



 
                                              (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
May 6-8                          Positive   Weekend   Total*
.
Thor                    Par  PG13   88%      $67       $195
Something Borrowed       WB  PG13   16%      $11       $ 24
Jumping the Broom      Sony  PG13   33%      $10       $ 28

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowbuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.




Fast Five is the one returning film looking to have an impact this weekend.  However, the 56% decline in its second weekend suggests the action film will not have an unusually long play in theaters.  Nonetheless, an estimated $185 million total domestic gross is nothing to scoff at, especially when paired with huge international numbers.  (We will have updated international numbers Monday or Tuesday).  The other returning films appear to be headed for weekends below $10 million.


                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
                                vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*

Fast Five              Uni        -56%      $38       $185
Rio                    Fox        -42%      $ 9       $150
Water for Elephants    Fox        -35%      $ 6       $ 57
Madea's Big Happy Fam.  LG        -56%      $ 4.5     $ 61
Hoodwinked Too!      Weins        -38%      $ 2.5     $  7
Prom                   Dis        -47%      $ 2.5     $ 11


Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $132 million total, ranking 19th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $171 million, and May 8-10, 2009 was $143 million.  This weekend is looking like $155 million: the first down weekend in four weeks. 

  

This Weekend Last Two Years




Traditionally, the first weekend in May supports one huge movie to kick off "summer", with a few much smaller films going along for the ride.  

5.7.10
 Iron Man 2 PAR PG13 Robert Downey Jr Gwyneth Paltrow  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $155  Actual: $128
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $327  Actual: $312
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $310

 Babies UNI PG    
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $3  Actual: $2
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $9  Actual: $7
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $2

5.8.09
 Star Trek PAR PG13 Chris Pine Zachary Quinto  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $67  Actual: $75
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $261  Actual: $258
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $127

 Next Day Air SUMMIT R Donald Faison Mos Def  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $4  Actual: $4
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $9  Actual: $10
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $0

Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up (based on Friday's actual numbers), on Sunday we will have studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday), and Monday we will have a complete wrap-up based on the actual full-weekend numbers. 

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FULL WEEK BOX OFFICE ACTUALS: Improvement in Year-to-Date Picture Continues

The past week is up an amazing 57% from last year, and the year-to-date tally is now down 15% from last year (improving from down 17% last week).  This is very positive news for the industry, and especially Universal with its successful launch of Fast Five.

The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between April 25 and May 1 grossed $191 million, up an incredible 57% from the same week in 2010.  Year to date, all films are now down 3% from the comparable four-year average and now down 15% from 2010's box office numbers (both year-to-date comparison percentages improved from last week).  The positive momentum continues.

All Films April 25-May 1
(millions)           4yr              vs      vs
             2010    Avg     2011    2010    Avg

Week #17     $121    $171    $191   
+57%    +12%

Year to Date $3437   $3035   $2930  
-15%    - 3%

Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are now: Fast Five ($188 million, 93rd percentile of all wide release movies the past two years), Rio ($150 million, 90th percentile of all wide release movies), and Hop ($113 million, 83rd percentile).  The other new releases this weekend look like:  Prom ($12 million, 12th percentile) and Hoodwinked Too! ($6 million, 4th percentile), an absolute disaster for Weinstein.  


The complete list of Total Domestic estimates can be found below.


Weekend Actuals vs Yesterday's Studio Projections

Universal actually underestimated the Sunday performance of Fast Five (a rare event for a studio) -- the actual weekend performance came in almost $3 million higher.  This is a very good sign for the film, as word of mouth seems to be building even more than its own studio was estimating. 

The official weekend rankings follow in the table below.


      Weekend of                   Sunday    Monday   Showbuzz
      April 29-May 1, 2011         Studio    Weekend  Domestic
      (millions)                  Estimate   Actual    Total

  Fast Five            (Uni)     $83.6     $86.2     $188
  Rio
                 (Fox)     $14.4     $14.8     $150

  Madea's Big Happy Fam.
(LG)     $10.1     $ 9.9     $ 61
  Water for Elephants 
(Fox)     $ 9.1     $ 9.3     $ 57
  Prom                 (Dis)     $ 5.0     $ 4.7     $ 12
  Hoodwinked Too!
    (Weins)     $ 4.1     $ 4.1     $  6

  Hop                  (Uni)     $ 2.6     $ 2.7     $113
  African Cats        
(Dis)     $ 2.3     $ 2.4     $ 19

Note: The table above displays the weekend Studio Estimate (released Sunday), the Weekend Actual number (issued today), and the updated ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total estimate.  For definitions of all terms visit Showbuzz Basics. 


Limited Release Openings
 
In limited release, Cave of Forgotten Dreams opened at five theaters with a very good $25,400 per location, while 13 Assassins  opened at three theaters with $15,285 per theater. The other limited release openers had quiet debuts.  Sympathy for Delicious had an average opening ($4,724) at two theaters.  Lebanon, PA opened at two theaters with a soft $3,338 average per theater, while Exporting Raymond opened at 13 theaters with a similar $2,769 per theater average. 

The Calender: The Next Four Weeks



                              2011                                                2010
            May 6                                                  May 7
            Thor                                                   Iron Man 2
            Something Borrowed                       Babies
            Jumping the Broom

            May 13                                                May 14
            Bridesmaids                                       Robin Hood
            Priest                                                 Letters to Juliet
                                                                       Just Wright

            May 20                                               May 21
            Pirates of the Caribbean:                 Shrek Forever After
               On Stranger Tides                          MacGruber

            May 27                                               May 28
            Kung Fu Panda 2                              Sex and the City 2
            The Hangover Part II                         Prince of Persia

The chart below shows how the May 2010 releases fared worldwide.  At the high end, May films can deliver $800 million to $1 billion in worldwide gross.  The second tier grosses around $300-400 million, and the bottom tier (almost half the releases) take in $100 million or less. 



Check back tomorrow for updated international numbers for current movies in release, including a new graphic display of the domestic, international and home video revenues.

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WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES APR 29-MAY 1: Fast Five Even Stronger

Fast Five is even stronger after a strong Saturday.  Biggest April opening ever pushes the weekend to 55% above last year's comparable weekend.

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that Fast Five should finish its run with $183 million, ahead of Rio, which is headed for $149 million.  The other openers are DOA, with Prom headed for $13 million, Hoodwinked Too! for $6-7 million, and Dylan Dog: Dead of Night for about $2 million domestically.


Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, Fast Five opened with $83.6 million, averaging an outstanding $22,942 per theater at 3,644 theaters.  Prom opened with $5.0 million, playing on 2,730 theaters and averaging a paltry $1,832 -- an extremely below average performance.  Hoodwinked Too! opened with $4.1 million, averaging a woeful $1,653 per theater at 2,505 theaters.  Finally, Dylan Dog averaged a depressing $1,011 at 875 theaters.  



April 29-May 1, 2011                Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final*
Fast Five                 (Uni)     $83.6             $183
Rio                       (Fox)     $14.4   -45%      $149
Madea's Big Happy Family   (LG)     $10.1   -60%      $ 62
Water for Elephants      
(Fox)     $ 9.1   -46%      $ 56
Prom                      (Dis)     $ 5.0             $ 13
Hoodwinked Too!         (Weins)     $ 4.1             $  7
African Cats              (Dis)     $ 2.3   -61%      $ 18
Hop                       (Uni)     $ 2.6   -79%      $113
Dylan Dog                (Free)     $ 0.9             $  2


Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade. 

Total Weekend Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $142 million total, up a stunning 55% from the same weekend last year and about the same as the 2007-10 average for the comparable weekend.  The year-to-date numbers will be updated tomorrow when the official weekend numbers are in. 


Top 12 Films: Late April/ First Weekend of May

   (millions)
     Volume
2011  $142  (-1% vs 2007-10 average; +55% vs 2010 


2007-10
Avg   $144  
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $ 92  Nightmare on Elm Street 3 $33, Furry Vengeance $6

2009  $150  X-Men Wolverine $85, Ghosts Girlfriends Past $15
2008  $151  Iron Man $99, Made of Honor $15
2007  $181  Spider-Man 3 $151, Lucky You $3


The Week Ahead

Opening next week are Thor from Paramount, romantic comedy Something Borrowed from Warner Bros, and African-American comedy Jumping the Broom from TriStar.  Thor will clearly dominate the weekend but not at the same level as Iron Man 2, which opened with $128 million the same weekend last year.  (The documentary Babies also opened, whimpering with a little more than $2 million this weekend last year.) 

On Monday we will have the final, official numbers for the weekend (actual numbers for all three days, no estimated Saturday or Sunday numbers), and on Tuesday look for the updated international numbers for films currently in release. 

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