Movie Box Review

Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol has moved up to a $320 million overseas tally, bringing the worldwide total to $554 million.  The fourth M:I is now the worldwide leader of the franchise.  Mission: Impossible 2 grossed $546.4 million ($215.4 million domestic and $331.0 million overseas), Mission: Impossible grossed $457.7 million ($181.0 million domestic and $276.7 million overseas) and Mission: Impossible 3 grossed $397.8 million ($134.0 million domestic and $263.8 million overseas).

Adventures of Tintin has now grossed almost $280 million overseas.  Although Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows has a lower overseas total, its domestic superior domestic total is keeping it ahead of Tintin in the worldwide race. 

2012 is underway with one wide release this weekend (and only 2,000 theaters or so at that) and one major expansion.  The Devil Inside should battle Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol for the top spot this weekend.  As a whole, the weekend volume for the top 12 films will be around $102 million, up about 3% from the same weekend last year (which was no picnic).           

Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), the total box office for this weekend is now looking like $151 million, up 2% from last year.  Saturday business (impacted by New Year's Eve) was not as rough as expected and the studio projections are now fairly rosy, as they are expecting a very strong Sunday (more on that below).  Projected weekend grosses for each film (summarized after the jump) are generally much stronger than reported yesterday.

Box office volume drifted down a preliminary 9% Wednesday from Tuesday, with the top 10 films grossing a collective $41.5 million (almost exactly matching last year's December 28 total, when the date fell on a Tuesday, and up slightly from 2005 when that day also was on a Wednesday).  Click "read more" to see an updated daily top 10 movie chart and be sure to read Mitch Salem's Wednesday Edition of HOLIDAY BOXOFFICE. 


                DAILY TOTAL GROSS of TOP 10 MOVIES
           2011        2010        2006        2005
Dec 21  $27.5 Wed   $22.0 Tue   $17.8 Thu   $20.5 Wed
Dec 22  $24.8 Thu   $31.1 Wed   $39.6 Fri   $22.8 Thu
Dec 23  $37.1 Fri   $33.5 Thu   $43.3 Sat   $36.4 Fri
Dec 24  $22.1 Sat   $23.6 Fri   $20.1 Sun   $20.2 Sat
Dec 25  $54.5 Sun   $52.5 Sat   $49.4 Mon   $41.4 Sun
Dec 26  $61.8 Mon   $48.8 Sun   $49.5 Tue   $55.2 Mon
Dec 27  $45.6 Tue   $41.6 Mon   $41.9 Wed   $40.1 Tue
Dec 28  $41.5 Wed   $41.6 Tue   $39.9 Thu   $37.8 Wed
Dec 29        Thu   $41.7 Wed   $48.5 Fri   $38.1 Thu
Dec 30        Fri   $43.1 Thu   $51.5 Sat   $45.1 Fri
Dec 31        Sat   $41.7 Fri   $34.1 Sun   $35.8 Sat
Jan 01        Sun   $57.1 Sat   $41.0 Mon   $42.6 Sun



NOTE: Top films: 2010 (Little Fockers, True Grit, TRON Legacy), 2006 (Night at the Museum, Pursuit of Happyness, Dreamgirls), 2005 (King Kong, Chronicles of Narnia, Fun with Dick and Jane)

Updated chart of the top 10 movies currently in release follows, ranked by the Monday-Wednesday total gross.

Domestic Box Office (millions)   MON-     TUE     WED    WED
                                  WED    Dec27   Dec28  vs TUE
Mission: Impossible 4    (Par)   $32.7   $ 9.6   $ 8.5   -12%
Sherlock Holmes 2         (WB)   $24.7   $ 7.3   $ 6.5   -11%
Alvin & Chipmunks 3      (Fox)   $20.3   $ 6.8   $ 6.6   - 4%
Girl with Dragon Tattoo (Sony)   $15.5   $ 4.7   $ 4.2   - 9%
War Horse                (Dis)   $14.9   $ 4.3   $ 3.7   -11%
Adventures of Tintin     (Par)   $14.1   $ 4.6   $ 4.1   -11%
We Bought a Zoo          (Fox)   $13.6   $ 4.3   $ 4.0   - 6%
New Year's Eve            (WB)   $ 5.2   $ 1.7   $ 1.7   + 3%
Darkest Hour             (Sum)   $ 4.8   $ 1.5   $ 1.2   -15%
The Muppets              (Dis)   $ 3.1   $ 1.0   $ 1.0   - 0%


Top 10                                   $45.6   $41.5   - 9%


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No new wide releases this weekend, the final weekend of the year as we welcome the arrival of 2012.  We are estimating a box office volume of $145 million for Friday-Sunday for the top 12 films, up 27% from $114 million last weekend (which was limited by Christmas Eve on Saturday) and down only 2% from this weekend last year.           

Box office volume came back down to a normal level on Tuesday, with the top 10 films grossing a collective $45.5 million (up slightly from the $40-42 million for the December 27 date when it also fell on an early weekday in 2005, 2006 and 2011).  The torrid pace on Monday has been adjusted down to $61.8 (from an initial estimate of $67.8 million), still a very impressive number however. 


                DAILY TOTAL GROSS of TOP 10 MOVIES
           2011        2010        2006        2005
Dec 21  $27.5 Wed   $22.0 Tue   $17.8 Thu   $20.5 Wed
Dec 22  $24.8 Thu   $31.1 Wed   $39.6 Fri   $22.8 Thu
Dec 23  $37.1 Fri   $33.5 Thu   $43.3 Sat   $36.4 Fri
Dec 24  $22.1 Sat   $23.6 Fri   $20.1 Sun   $20.2 Sat
Dec 25  $54.5 Sun   $52.5 Sat   $49.4 Mon   $41.4 Sun
Dec 26  $61.8*Mon   $48.8 Sun   $49.5 Tue   $55.2 Mon
Dec 27  $45.5 Tue   $41.6 Mon   $41.9 Wed   $40.1 Tue
Dec 28        Wed   $41.6 Tue   $39.9 Thu   $37.8 Wed
Dec 29        Thu   $41.7 Wed   $48.5 Fri   $38.1 Thu
Dec 30        Fri   $43.1 Thu   $51.5 Sat   $45.1 Fri
Dec 31        Sat   $41.7 Fri   $34.1 Sun   $35.8 Sat
Jan 01        Sun   $57.1 Sat   $41.0 Mon   $42.6 Sun

*-Mon Dec 26 adjusted down from $67.8 million

NOTE: Top films: 2010 (Little Fockers, True Grit, TRON Legacy), 2006 (Night at the Museum, Pursuit of Happyness, Dreamgirls), 2005 (King Kong, Chronicles of Narnia, Fun with Dick and Jane)

In this week between Christmas and New Year's, when a weekday generates box office returns similar to a normal weekend daily number, Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol remains the movie to beat.  Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows is a very respectable second place, and both films at the top exhibited a fairly normal drop from Monday to Tuesday.  Films with a sizable kid audience (Alvin, Tintin and We Bought a Zoo) had much lower than average declines from Monday to Tuesday, but the latter two are not setting the world on fire.  Interestingly, War Horse had the biggest drop on Tuesday.  Because of its late release date (Sunday, December 25), War Horse has a lot of ground to make up compared to the other films and it really needs to do better than $4.3 million on a day like Tuesday (ranking 7th on the day, after ranking 3rd Monday) to stay relevant.

Domestic Box Office (millions)   MON-     MON     TUE    TUE
                                  TUE    Dec26   Dec27  vs MON
Mission: Impossible 4    (Par)   $24.2   $14.6   $ 9.6   -34%
Sherlock Holmes 2         (WB)   $18.1   $10.8   $ 7.3   -32%
Alvin & Chipmunks 3      (Fox)   $13.8   $ 6.9   $ 6.8   - 2%
Girl with Dragon Tattoo (Sony)   $11.4   $ 6.7   $ 4.7   -31%
War Horse                (Dis)   $11.2   $ 7.0   $ 4.3   -41%
Adventures of Tintin     (Par)   $10.0   $ 5.4   $ 4.6   -15%
We Bought a Zoo          (Fox)   $ 9.5   $ 5.2   $ 4.3   -18%
New Year's Eve            (WB)   $ 3.5   $ 1.9   $ 1.7   -12%
Darkest Hour             (Sum)   $ 3.5   $ 2.1   $ 1.5   -30%
The Muppets              (Dis)   $ 2.1   $ 1.1   $ 1.0   -10%


Top 10                                   $61.8   $45.5   -26%

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Based on actual results for Friday, December 23-Sunday, December 25 and studio projections for Monday, December 26, the four-day holiday weekend continues to look dominated by Tom Cruise in Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol, soft openings for Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Adventures of Tintin and We Bought a Zoo.  However, War Horse is showing promise in its limited run so far (opening Sunday), while The Darkest Hour (also opening Sunday) is doing very little business, another attempt at the curious strategy of opening a horror-themed film on Christmas Day.

Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol (the fourth M:I film) is looking like $46.2 million Friday-Monday, with $78.6 million to date domestically.  

Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows (the second Holmes) is looking like $31.8 million from Friday-Monday and $90.6 million to date domestically.

Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), the total box office for this weekend is now looking like only $100 million, down 24% from last year.  Projected weekend grosses for each film (summarized after the jump) are generally lower than originally forecast yesterday.  After Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol, nothing is really catching fire.