Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), the total box office for this weekend is now looking like $151 million, up 2% from last year. Saturday business (impacted by New Year's Eve) was not as rough as expected and the studio projections are now fairly rosy, as they are expecting a very strong Sunday (more on that below). Projected weekend grosses for each film (summarized after the jump) are generally much stronger than reported yesterday.
The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the recent openers are headed for: Girl with the Dragon Tattoo ($110 million), War Horse ($95 million), Adventures of Tintin ($90 million), We Bought a Zoo ($90 million) and The Darkest Hour ($31 million).
In the battle of the sequels, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows ($190 million), Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked ($130 million) and Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol ($220 million) have each been adjusted up.
Business was especially brisk for War Horse on Saturday, with the Steven Spielberg film collecting $5.6 million New Year's Eve, up 20% from the $4.7 million Friday. Most films, in contrast, declined 15-25% from Friday to Saturday, not bad considering New Year's parties cut significantly into the Saturday box office.
In the battle of the sequels, Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows ($190 million), Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked ($130 million) and Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol ($220 million) have each been adjusted up.
Business was especially brisk for War Horse on Saturday, with the Steven Spielberg film collecting $5.6 million New Year's Eve, up 20% from the $4.7 million Friday. Most films, in contrast, declined 15-25% from Friday to Saturday, not bad considering New Year's parties cut significantly into the Saturday box office.
Dec 30 2011-Jan 1 2012 Wknd vs Showbuzz
(millions) Studio Last Domestic
Proj. Wknd Final*
Mission: Impossible 4 (Par) $31.3 + 6% $220
Sherlock Holmes 2 (WB) $22.1 + 9% $190
Alvin and the Chipmunks 3 (Fox) $18.3 +45% $130
War Horse (DW/Dis) $16.9 +125% $ 95
Girl Dragon Tattoo (Sony) $16.3 +28% $110
We Bought a Zoo (Fox) $14.3 +53% $ 90
Adventures of Tintin (DW/Dis) $12.0 +24% $ 90
New Year's Eve (WB/NL) $ 6.7 +103% $ 50
Darkest Hour (Sum) $ 4.3 +43% $ 31
The Descendants (Fox) $ 3.7 +76% $ 52
Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday. The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday). The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend. The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America. A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.
Mission: Impossible Film Track Opening Domestic Overseas
Weekend Total Total
Mission: Impossible 5.22.1996 $ 45.4 $181.0 $276.7
Mission: Impossible II 5.24.2000 $ 57.8 $215.4 $331.0
Mission: Impossible III 5.05.2006 $ 47.7 $134.0 $263.8
Total Box Office Volume
After a very solid New Year's Eve Saturday, the Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $151 million total Friday-Sunday, up 2% from the same calendar weekend last year.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #52
Volume Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011 $151 M:I 4 $31, Sherlock Holmes 2 $22, Alvin 3 $18
2010 $149 Little Fockers $26, True Grit $24, TRON Legacy $19
2009 $209 Avatar $68, Sherlock Holmes $37, Alvin 2 $35
2008 $131 Marley & Me $24, Bedtime Stories $20, Benj Button $19
2007 $121 National Treasure $20, Juno $16, I Am Legend $16
2007-10
Avg $153
HOLIDAY BOX OFFICE: Day by Day
The top 10 films on Friday grossed over $42 million collectively, a very good performance for a New Year's Eve. The studios are very bullish for today, Sunday, January 1, with over $53 million estimated. That number looks achievable based on last year, but remember that January 1 fell on a Saturday in the last holiday season. 2005 provides the best comparison -- Sunday, January 1 lifted 18% above Saturday, December 31. The estimated 26% lift today from yesterday may be a touch over-stated.
DAILY TOTAL GROSS of TOP 10 MOVIES
2011 2010 2006 2005
Dec 21 $27.5 Wed $22.0 Tue $17.8 Thu $20.5 Wed
Dec 22 $24.8 Thu $31.1 Wed $39.6 Fri $22.8 Thu
Dec 23 $37.1 Fri $33.5 Thu $43.3 Sat $36.4 Fri
Dec 24 $22.1 Sat $23.6 Fri $20.1 Sun $20.2 Sat
Dec 25 $54.5 Sun $52.5 Sat $49.4 Mon $41.4 Sun
Dec 26 $61.8 Mon $48.8 Sun $49.5 Tue $55.2 Mon
Dec 27 $45.6 Tue $41.6 Mon $41.9 Wed $40.1 Tue
Dec 28 $41.5 Wed $41.6 Tue $39.9 Thu $37.8 Wed
Dec 29 $41.0 Thu $41.7 Wed $48.5 Fri $38.1 Thu
Dec 30 $49.6 Fri $43.1 Thu $51.5 Sat $45.1 Fri
Dec 31 $42.5 Sat $41.7 Fri $34.1 Sun $35.8 Sat
Jan 01 $53.4*Sun $57.1 Sat $41.0 Mon $42.6 Sun
Jan 02 Mon $38.6 Sun $20.4 Tue $36.5 Mon
* - Estimated by Studios
NOTE: Top films: 2010 (Little Fockers, True Grit, TRON Legacy), 2006 (Night at the Museum, Pursuit of Happyness, Dreamgirls), 2005 (King Kong, Chronicles of Narnia, Fun with Dick and Jane)
2011 $151 M:I 4 $31, Sherlock Holmes 2 $22, Alvin 3 $18
2010 $149 Little Fockers $26, True Grit $24, TRON Legacy $19
2009 $209 Avatar $68, Sherlock Holmes $37, Alvin 2 $35
2008 $131 Marley & Me $24, Bedtime Stories $20, Benj Button $19
2007 $121 National Treasure $20, Juno $16, I Am Legend $16
2007-10
Avg $153
HOLIDAY BOX OFFICE: Day by Day
The top 10 films on Friday grossed over $42 million collectively, a very good performance for a New Year's Eve. The studios are very bullish for today, Sunday, January 1, with over $53 million estimated. That number looks achievable based on last year, but remember that January 1 fell on a Saturday in the last holiday season. 2005 provides the best comparison -- Sunday, January 1 lifted 18% above Saturday, December 31. The estimated 26% lift today from yesterday may be a touch over-stated.
DAILY TOTAL GROSS of TOP 10 MOVIES
2011 2010 2006 2005
Dec 21 $27.5 Wed $22.0 Tue $17.8 Thu $20.5 Wed
Dec 22 $24.8 Thu $31.1 Wed $39.6 Fri $22.8 Thu
Dec 23 $37.1 Fri $33.5 Thu $43.3 Sat $36.4 Fri
Dec 24 $22.1 Sat $23.6 Fri $20.1 Sun $20.2 Sat
Dec 25 $54.5 Sun $52.5 Sat $49.4 Mon $41.4 Sun
Dec 26 $61.8 Mon $48.8 Sun $49.5 Tue $55.2 Mon
Dec 27 $45.6 Tue $41.6 Mon $41.9 Wed $40.1 Tue
Dec 28 $41.5 Wed $41.6 Tue $39.9 Thu $37.8 Wed
Dec 29 $41.0 Thu $41.7 Wed $48.5 Fri $38.1 Thu
Dec 30 $49.6 Fri $43.1 Thu $51.5 Sat $45.1 Fri
Dec 31 $42.5 Sat $41.7 Fri $34.1 Sun $35.8 Sat
Jan 01 $53.4*Sun $57.1 Sat $41.0 Mon $42.6 Sun
Jan 02 Mon $38.6 Sun $20.4 Tue $36.5 Mon
* - Estimated by Studios
NOTE: Top films: 2010 (Little Fockers, True Grit, TRON Legacy), 2006 (Night at the Museum, Pursuit of Happyness, Dreamgirls), 2005 (King Kong, Chronicles of Narnia, Fun with Dick and Jane)
Next Weekend
Next weekend, 2012 kicks off with The Devil Inside from Paramount on Friday, January 6. Last year 2011 started horribly with Season of the Witch starring the incomparable Nicolas Cage ($10.6 million opening weekend) and Country Strong ($7.3 million).
Look for updated weekend figures Monday.
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