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Showing posts with label rio. Show all posts
Showing posts with label rio. Show all posts

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES APR 22-24: A Return to the Box Office

Up nearly 40% from last year, this weekend is being fueled by returning family films like  Rio and Hop (legitimate hits) and moderate films like Tyler Perry's Madea's Big Happy Family and Water for Elephants.  The audience is returning to theaters in time for the start of the summer season.

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that Rio should finish its run with $154 million and Hop should end up with $127 million.  As for the openers, Madea's Big Happy Family (starring and produced, written and directed by Tyler Perry, pictured) is headed for $58 million, similar to Perry's recent Why Did I Get Married Too? but far below the last Madea project, Madea Goes to Jail ($90 million).  Water for Elephants is headed for a final domestic gross of $42 million.  African Cats is on pace for a $20 million total.


Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, Madea's Big Happy Family opened with $25.8 million, averaging a robust $11,254 per theater at 2,288 theaters.  Water Elephants opened with $17.5 million, playing on 2,817 theaters and averaging $6,212 -- a slightly above average performance.  African Cats opened at only 1,220 theaters and averaged $5,246 per theater (for a total of $6.4 million).  The per theater average for Cats is down from the estimate yesterday but still a hair above the $4,900 average number for all movies.


April 22-24, 2011                   Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd    Ultimate*
Rio                       (Fox)     $26.8   -32%      $154 ++
Madea's Big Happy Family 
  (LG)     $25.8             $ 58
Water for Elephants      
(Fox)     $17.5             $ 42
Hop                      
(Uni)     $12.5   +17%      $127 ++
Scre4m                  (Weins)     $ 7.2   -62%      $ 48 --
African Cats              (Dis)     $ 6.4             $ 20
Soul Surfer               (Tri)     $ 5.6   -23%      $ 43
Insidious             (FilmDis)
    $ 5.4   -20%      $ 57
Hanna                     (Foc)     $ 5.3   -28%      $ 46
Source Code               (Sum)     $ 5.1   -18%      $ 58
Arthur                     (WB)     $ 4.1   -39%      $ 38

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade. 
 

Total Weekend Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $124 million total, up almost 40% from the same weekend last year and up almost 50% (an amazing increase) from the 2007-10 average for the comparable weekend. 


Top 12 Films: Fourth Weekend in April
   (millions)
     Volume
2011  $124  (+48% vs 2007-10 average; +39% vs 2010) 

2007-10
Avg   $ 84  
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $ 90  Back-Up Plan $12, The Losers $9, Oceans $6 

2009  $104  Obsessed $29, Fighting $11, The Soloist $10, Earth $9
2008  $ 80  Baby Mama $17, Harold & Kumar Escape $15,Deception $2
2007  $ 62  The Invisible $8, Next $7, Condemned $4

The Week Ahead

Opening next week are Fast Five (action sequel) from Universal, Prom (comedy-drama) from Disney, Hoodwinked Too! Hood vs Evil (animation) from Weinstein, and Dylan Dog: Dead of Night (horror comedy) from Freestyle Releasing.  Look for Fast Five to make the most noise and ignite the entire weekend.  Also, Rio should continue to do well.  These strong films will be enough to fuel increase from the same weekend last year when A Nightmare on Elm Street opened with $33 million and Furry Vengeance struggled with a little more than $6 million.  A positive weekend would be the third in a row, and as movies do well they provide a platform for trailers of upcoming films, creating a cycle of success for future weekends and the summer season itself.  Of course, people need to want to see the summer movies, but the stage is being set for a fair test.

On Monday we will have the final, official numbers for the weekend (actual numbers, no estimated Saturday or Sunday numbers), and on Tuesday look for the updated international numbers for films currently in release. 

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Boxoffice Footnotes

Among Tyler Perry movies that feature his Madea character, BIG HAPPY FAMILY is looking relatively weak, but it may have a big Easter Sunday. Other pictures likely to benefit from family crowds include RIO, HOP and SOUL SURFER.

On the other hand, the teen girl crowd typically turns out opening night, which could give WATER FOR ELEPHANTS a shaky weekend multiple.  It could have a decent hold next week, though (until SOMETHING BORROWED opens May 6).


SCRE4M collapsed, not unexpectedly, so unless they take a shot at 3D, that franchise is probably done. Ditto for YOUR HIGHNESS. INSIDIOUS, though, continues to mint money.


CONSPIRATOR didn't have a promising 2d weekend, headed for around $3K per theatre in 848. ATLAS SHRUGGED PART I fared even worse, adding 50% more theatres but plummeting by half.   Don't hold your breath for Part II.


WIN WIN added some more theatres and held steady--it may hit a $10M or so total, as may JANE EYRE.


Next week will be all FAST FIVE; the interesting question is whether that will be so big that it can challenge THOR"s opening the following week.  Early grosses in Australia, where both films have already opened, suggest Thor may not be a sure thing.



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FRIDAY APR 22 BOX OFFICE NUMBERS: Another Strong Weekend Led by Rio and Madea


This is shaping up to be a VERY strong second weekend in a row at the box office.  Early box office numbers indicate strong performances by Rio and Hop, a solid opening for Madea, and an OK opening for Water for Elephants.    

Based on Friday's numbers, Rio remains at #1 with a projected $27.5 million this weekend, down only 30% from last weekend.  Rio has been upgraded to $157 million on the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final Gross estimate.  The top opener is Madea's Big Happy Family at $26 million, somewhat lower than forecast Thursday but still solid.  Madea has a $59 million Domestic Final Gross estimate.  Opening at expectations, Water for Elephants should open with $16.8 million and is headed for a Domestic Final Gross of $45 million.  And Disneynature's African Cats should open as forecast with $7.3 million on its way toan estimated Domestic Final Gross of $21 million.  Hop, boosted by Easter weekend, actually was UP versus last weekend to $12 million, from $10.7 million, an extraordinary feat.  Hop's Domestic Final Gross has been upgraded back up to $126 million. 


On a per theater basis, Madea will average a very good $11,300 at 2,288 theaters.  Water for Elephants should average $6,000 at 2,817 theaters, and African Cats should average a similar number at a lower theater count (1,220).  $6,000 per theater is above the norm for opening weekends and is a decent number.  In sum, good performances from all three movies.  And keep in mind that although African Cats is only a $7 million opening weekend (because of the low theater count), the film will have decent legs and a very good international return, based on past performance of the series.


April 22-24, 2011       Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early   Friday  Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final*
Rio (Fox)                [$26  ]    $27.5   $11.2     $157 ++
Madea's Big Happy Family [$31  ]    $26.0   $10.7     $ 59
Water for Elephants (Fox)[$16  ]    $16.8   $ 7.0     $ 45
Hop (Uni)                [$ 9  ]    $12.0   $ 4.4     $126 ++
African Cats (Dis)       [$ 7  ]    $ 7.3   $ 3.2     $ 21

Scre4m (Weins)           [$ 8.5]    $ 6.0   $ 2.4     $ 43 --
Soul Surfer (Tri)        [ N/A ]    $ 5.9   $ 2.2     $ 44
Insidious (FilmDis)      [ N/A ]    $ 5.4   $ 2.1     $ 57
Source Code (Sum)        [ N/A ]    $ 5.3   $ 1.8     $ 58
Hanna (Foc)              [ N/A ]    $ 4.7   $ 1.7     $ 45

Arthur (WB)              [ N/A ]    $ 4.4   $ 1.7     $ 39

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is reminder of each film's ShowbuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Ultimate number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade. 


The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $125 million total.  This is a huge increase from comparable weekends the past few years.   


Top 12 Films: Fourth Weekend in April
   (millions)
     Volume
2011  $125  (+49% vs 2007-10 average; +39% vs 2010) 

2007-10
Avg   $ 84  
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $ 90  Back-Up Plan $12, The Losers $9, Oceans $6 

2009  $104  Obsessed $29, Fighting $11, The Soloist $10, Earth $9
2008  $ 80  Baby Mama $17, Harold & Kumar Escape $15,Deception $2
2007  $ 62  The Invisible $8, Next $7, Condemned $4

Next weekend should also be solid.  Opening next week are Fast Five from Universal, Prom from Disney, Hoodwinked Too! Hood vs Evil from Weinstein, and Dylan Dog: Dead of Night from Freestyle Releasing.  Look for Fast Five to make the most noise and ignite the entire weekend.  Also, Rio should continue to do well.  These strong films will be enough to fuel increase from the same weekend last year when A Nightmare on Elm Street opened with $33 million and Furry Vengeance struggled with a little more than $6 million.  A positive weekend would be the third in a row, and as movies do well they provide a platform for trailers of upcoming films, creating a cycle of success for future weekends and the summer season itself.

Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers. 

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WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES APR 15-17: Stronger Saturday Improves Weekend

Despite the gloom of yesterday, this weekend is now looking like it will be up slightly versus 2010.  Saturday business was higher than expected for films across the board, with the exception of Scre4m.      

Based on Saturday's performance, Rio is now headed for about $40.0 million this weekend.  The Saturday "bump" for Rio was even bigger than expected (from a just-okay $10 million Friday to a solid $17 million Saturday).  As we said yesterday:  There is a slight chance heavy tornadic activity in the South might have dampened movie attendance last night -- we could see a higher than normal uptick Saturday and Sunday, but the effect should not be major.  Rio will now premiere somewhat higher than both Rango and Hop in North America (by a few million dollars).  Playing at 3,826 theaters, Rio should average about $10,500 per theater.  Although it still will not hit a very bullish ShowbuzzDaily Forecast, Rio is now looking more solid if it crosses the $40 million line.


Scre4m looks to be on the same track it was yesterday, headed for a shade above $19 million this weekend (an average $5,800 at 3,305 theaters).  The fourth in a franchise that started way back in 1996 (a month after Bill Clinton defeated Bob Dole for his second term) had a $34 million ShowbuzzDaily forecast.  That larger number was not unthinkable given that Scream 3 opened to $35 million in 2000.  Scream 3 went on to gross $89 million, which is equal to about $132 million in today's dollars.  Scre4m in contrast is headed for about $53 million domestically, according to the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Ultimate Estimate.  It looks like Wes Craven can move on to other things (hey, how about The Hills Have Eyes III?), and Weinstein will have to search for another franchise (a new, fresh one, perhaps?).

The Conspirator opened at 707 theaters and should average about $5,500 per location, only somewhat above the $4,900 average for all films.  Not a great start for the historical drama about the plot to assassinate Abraham Lincoln and destabilize the Union, but the movie is certainly not DOA.  A solid opening for a limited release like this would be at least $10,000 per theater.  Limited release "hits" can average $25,000 or more per theater. 

Opening to a similar average ($5,600) at far fewer theaters (299), Atlas Shrugged: Part 1 (from Rocky Mountain) is headed for a $1.7 million opening weekend.   These numbers are exactly in between "hit" and "miss".  Its performance in the coming weeks will determine whether we see a Part 2. 



April 15-17, 2011       Pre-Wknd    Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz   Studio   Last    Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Wknd    Ultimate*
Rio (Fox)                [$46.5]    $40.0             $143
Scre4m (Weins)           [$34  ]    $19.3             $ 53
Hop (Uni)                [$11  ]    $11.2   -47%      $109 --
Soul Surfer (Tri)        [$ 5.5]    $ 7.4   -30%      $ 38
Hanna (Foc)              [$ 6.5]    $ 7.3   -41%      $ 44

Arthur (WB)              [$ 6  ]    $ 6.9   -43%      $ 36
Insidious (FilmDis)      [$ 5.5]    $ 6.8   -27%      $ 53
Source Code (Sum)        [$ 5  ]    $ 6.3   -27%      $ 55
The Conspirator (Roadsde)[$ 2  ]    $ 3.9             $ 15
Your Highness (Uni)      [$ 4.5]    $ 3.9   -58%      $ 22
Limitless (Rel)          [ n/a ]    $ 3.8   -31%      $ 82

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowbuzzDaily Forecast (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The third column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Ultimate number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade. 

Total Weekend Volume

The returning films, like Rio, had better than expected Saturdays (or worse than expected Fridays, depending on your point of view).  Either way, the weekend numbers for the returning films are enough to lift the top 12 into positive territory versus last year.  What looked like another down weekend yesterday, now looks ever so slightly positive. 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $118 million total.  Much better than "an average" comparable weekend the last four years and a bit higher than last year's comparable number.  Although if there is a considerable amount of studio rounding in these estimates, the 5% gain versus last year could turn to a flat year when we see the actual weekend numbers tomorrow.  It's not yet time to celebrate the beginning of the end of the 2011 box office slump. 


Top 12 Films: Third Weekend in April
   (millions)
     Volume
2011  $118  (+28% vs 2007-10 average; +5% vs 2010) 

2007-10
Avg   $ 92  
            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $112  Kick-Ass $20, Death at a Funeral $16 
2009  $100  17 Again $24, State of Play $14,Crank:High Voltage $7
2008  $ 83  Forbidden Kingdom $21, Forgetting Sarah Marshall $18
2007  $ 73  Fracture $11, Vacancy $8, The Condemned $4

The Week Ahead

Looking ahead to next weekend, the comparisons could be very positive next week.  Tyler Perry's Medea's Family Reunion (LG) should open in the $30 million range, and Water for Elephants (Fox) should open around $25 million.  Last year, the best opening between April 23-25 was The Back-Up Plan (CBS Films) with only $12.2 million.  The Losers (WB) opened with $9.4 million, and Oceans (Dis) bowed with only $6.1 million. 

On Monday we will have the final, official numbers for the weekend (actual numbers, no estimated Saturday or Sunday numbers), and on Tuesday look for the updated international numbers for films currently in release. 

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Box Office Footnotes



Rio's domestic opening is a little soft, but the film has the advantage of facing no animated competition (aside from the minor Hoodwinked Too) until Kung Fu Panda 2 opens May 27. Plus it has its gangbuster foreign grosses to keep it warm.

There is a great horror movie boxoffice story this season... Insidious, which continues to have a remarkable audience hold. It's entirely possible that Insidious will end up outgrossing Scre4m when it's all over, which would be an astounding achievement.

Soul Surfer, Hanna and Arthur should all do around $6-7M in their 2d weekends, a good number for Surfer, OK for the others (which had larger debuts). Your Highness, as expected, is on the express train to homevideo.

Atlas Shrugged Part I, despite some of the worst reviews of the decade, should do around $8-9K per theatre at 300 (putting The Conspirator's theatre number in the shade), probably indicating concerted response to the marketing effort aimed at "tea party" groups and other presumed Ayn Rand fans. Updated numbers for Atlas Shrugged Click Here.

Next weekend the latest Tyler Perry should do his usual number, and the Robert Pattinson/Reese Witherspoon Water for Elephants is a big question mark until reviews start to appear. The week after that, Hollywood gets going in earnest (it hopes) with Fast Five.


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RIO: Cartoon Carnival

Worth A Ticket; Birds Fly High Enough for Kids, and Adults Too.

Click For More Reviews:

THOR    PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN 4    MIDNIGHT IN PARIS

Animation has, over the past decade, passed beyond being merely a movie genre to a veritable industry within the industry.  Every studio is in the business now, making films year-round that routinely cost $125-200M to produce, with another $100-150M for worldwide marketing.  It's worth the risk, because nothing is as profitable for a studio as an animated franchise that works, with its gigantic opportunities not just for sequels and spin-offs, but ancillaries like TV series and merchandising.  Plus, unlike superhero movies, most cartoons are original properties that the studios can own from the ground up, and even the superstar actors who provide voiceovers get just a fraction of the deals they command when they have to spend months in front of a camera.  That's a lot of pressure on what are mostly insubstantial comedies, but as the segment has matured, quality has become more widespread too--although Pixar/Disney still, of course, towers over everyone else, we've recently had excellent pictures from DreamWorks (How To Train Your Dragon) and Paramount (Rango).  The new RIO from 20th/Blue Sky (makers of the Ice Age series) isn't quite at that level, but it's a very creditable entertainment that should delight a lot of children without making their adult companions suffer.

The setting is, well--guess.  Actually, the story starts in Minnesota, where the only male blue macaw left in the world (named, with a certain lack of originality, Blu) lives in glorious mutual nerdiness with his owner Linda, in the bookstore she runs.  He's voiced by Jesse Eisenberg, and truly it's rare that an actor was so born to voice a part (Linda is Leslie Mann).  Blu's only shortcoming is an inability to fly, but in the limited life he and Linda have, he's adapted to it with ease.  One day, a Brazilian ornithologist named Tulio (Rodrigo Santoro) shows up to tell Linda that he has the only female blue macaw, and that she must let the two birds get together in order to save the species.  Reluctantly, she agrees, and when bird and girl arrive in Rio, nothing goes as planned:  the female, named Jewel (Anne Hathaway) is uninterested in the extreme in mating with Blu, and disdainful of his flightlessness.  Worse, a group of smugglers, aided by the villainous cockatoo Nigel (Jemaine Clement), capture the two macaws and shackle them together.  The rest of the tale is about the escape and romance of the heroes, aided by various wildlife voiced by, among others, Jamie Foxx, Will i Am, George Lopez and Tracy Morgan.
   


The storyline of Rio is rarely unpredictable--do you really wonder if Blu will take flight before the movie is over?--and one wishes the script had a little more cleverness and character (Pixar has spoiled us forever).  It's one of those committee jobs, with 4 screenwriters credited (Don Rhymer, Joshua Sternin, Jeffrey Ventimilia, Sam Harper) and 3 more for the story (Saldanha, Earl Richey Jones, Todd R. Jones), and as you'd expect, it doesn't quite achieve cohesion.  But it bounces along nicely, and sometimes it's downright funny.  Along with Eisenberg's perfect neurotic vocal, Hathaway is a most spirited romantic adversary, and she even gets to sing a little (listening to the two of them, you wish they'd do something live action together, like an updated spin on Midnight Run).  Clement is a terrifically vicious villain, and he has the best song, a paean to meanness called "Nasty Bird." Even the guest stars along for the ride, like Morgan and Lopez, are pleasant company.
 
One of the main complaints about 3D--that the lenses dull the colors so much, the visual experience is often less pleasing than 2D--definitely doesn't apply to Rio.  The picture takes full advantage of its setting and Carnival atmosphere, consistently vibrant with sharp, bright colors that are a joy to watch,  The director Carlos Saldanha, a veteran of the Ice Age series, also makes strong use of the 3D itself, with lots of vertiginous flight and chase sequences, not to mention the Carnival setpieces at the climax; people, animals, birds and objects are constantly popping unexpectedly into frame. So this is one time that paying the 3D premium doesn't feel like a tax on moviegoing. 

Rio is content to be nothing more than a lightweight 90 minutes of floating entertainment, but that's harder to pull off than it looks; you can't begrudge Fox its revenues from the new franchise it's probably created  Based on the trailers for the summer's 3D blockbusters to come, we should enjoy it while it lasts.  

(RIO - 20th Century Fox/Blue Sky - 93 min. - G - Director:  Carlos Saldanha - Script:  Don Rhymer, Joshua Sternin, Jeffrey Ventimilia, Sam Harper, story by Carlos Saldanha, Earl Richey Jones, Todd R. Jones - Cast:  Jesse Eisenberg, Anne Hathaway, Leslie Mann, Rodrigo Santoro, Jemaine Clement, George Lopez, Tracy Morgan - Wide Release)


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