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Showing posts with label straw dogs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label straw dogs. Show all posts

WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES September 16-18

8:50 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), The Lion King returned to theaters 17 years later -- in 3D no less -- and scored a solid #1 for the weekend.  Drive opened okay, while Straw Dogs and I Don't Know How She Does It were very quiet arrivals.  Conatagion fell to #2, but with a fairly small second-week decline, its final domestic gross has been upgraded.  The weekend overall is now looking like it will be down marginally from this weekend last year.      

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the openers are headed for:  The Lion King in 3D ($117 million), Drive ($42 million), Straw Dogs ($19 million), and I Don't Know How She Does It ($11 million).  Contagion has been upgraded to $84 million, while Warrior has been downgraded a touch to $19 million.  The Debt is holding steady at $34 million, and Colombiana is still headed for $39 million.  The Help is locking in on an extremely good $168 million.             


Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, The Lion King in 3D will average $12,600 per theater at 2,330 theaters (for $29.3 million from Friday-Sunday).  Drive opened with a soft $3,800 average at 2,886 theaters ($11.0 million). Straw Dogs opened with a weak $2,100 average at 2,408 theaters ($5.0 million).  I Don't Know How She Does It will average a lame $1,800 at 2,476 theaters ($4.5 million for the weekend).   

The second week decline for Contagion (-35%) paved the way for an increase in the estimated final domestic gross, and the other declines for the holdovers were in the normal range for each genre (with the exception of The Help which had its usual low decline).      


September 16-18, 2011               Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 
The Lion King in 3D       (Dis)     $29.3             $117
Contagion                  (WB)     $14.5   -35%      $ 84+
Drive                 (FilmDis)     $11.0             $ 42
The Help               (Dis/DW)     $ 6.4   -28%      $168
Straw Dogs               (Sony)     $ 5.0             $ 19
I Don't Know How She Does(Wein)     $ 4.5             $ 11
Warrior                    (LG)     $ 2.8   -47%      $ 19-
The Debt                (Focus)     $ 2.9   -38%      $ 34
Rise of Planet of Apes    (Fox)     $ 2.6   -32%      $183
Colombiana               (Sony)     $ 2.3   -42%      $ 39

Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Limited Releases 

Opening this weekend on the indie circuit (partial results to come):

-- Restless (Sony Pictures Classics) opened with a weak $3,500 average at 5 theaters


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $85 million total, down 3% from the same calendar weekend last year when The Town and Easy A opened but up 2% from the typical total for this weekend the last four years.   

Top 12 Films: Weekend #37
     Volume     (millions)
2011  $ 85  (+2% vs 2007-10 average; -3% vs 2010) 

2007-10
Avg   $ 83            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $ 87  The Town $24, Easy A $18, Devil $12    
2009  $ 87  Cloudy Chance Meatballs $30, The Informant! $10.5
2008  $ 76  Lakeview Terrace $15, My Best Friend's Girl $8
2007  $ 80  Resident Evil Extinction $24, Good Luck Chuck $14
 


Next Weekend

Opening next week are Dolphin Tale from Warner Brothers, Abduction from Lionsgate, Moneyball from Sony, and Killer Elite from Open Road Films.  Those movies will be compared to Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps ($19 million opening weekend), Legends of the Guardians ($16 million), and You Again ($8 million). 

International numbers will be posted as soon as possible, and Monday we will have official numbers for the Friday-Sunday domestic grosses.

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THE BIJOU: Boxoffice Footnotes - September 17

12:26 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , ,


For all the wildly unexpected success of THE LION KING, Disney has limited boxoffice upside, because the new Blu-Ray hits the streets on October 4, and that's not likely to be a date that can be changed.


The Friday number for DRIVE is right on the edge between meeting expectations and disappointing them; its C- Cinemascore suggests the balance is going to tilt the wrong way over the course of the weekend.

Screen Gems seems to have seen STRAW DOGS coming, as it's been sitting on their shelf for quite a few months.  Straw was an ill-advised project in the first place, remaking a film that's both critically esteemed and fairly obscure, and without any appreciable star value.  Scheduling it directly against the similar-appeal Drive was probably the death blow.  

I DON'T KNOW HOW SHE DOES IT was Harvey Weinstein's turn to learn that Sarah Jessica Parker has no boxoffice value outside the Sex and the City franchise.  Combine that with the fact that it's a woeful piece of work, and you have a formula for flopping.  

CONTAGION held on surprisingly well in its second weekend, considering how genuinely disturbing it is to watch.  It wasn't a cheap film to produce, however, so international revenues will still be key.  It's hardly news that THE HELP continues to play like a champion; at this point, the question is how much DreamWorks will push it in awards season with mogul Spielberg's own War Horse on the horizon.  WARRIOR is also having a decent hold in terms of percentage, but its opening was so low that it hardly matters.

In limited release, Sony Classics was unable to parlay the Toronto reception for RESTLESS into any business--the picture is heading for perhaps $4K in each of 6 theatres.  However, THE MILL AND THE CROSS received a rhapsodic NY Times review, and should make $10K in its Film Forum weekend there (don't look for that one to do any crossover business, though).  

Next weekend, the interesting opening is MONEYBALL, which got deservedly excellent buzz out of Toronto and for which Brad Pitt is in the midst of a publicity spree.  Can that make the difference for a movie whose premise is hard to explain in a single sentence, let alone sell?  Also, Taylor Lautner will tackle his first solo starring project with ABDUCTION--will the Twilight fanatics show up in force for what looks like a Shia LaBouef retread?  And to return full circle, is Lion King a 1-weekend wonder, or will it dent the opening of DOLPHIN TALE?  We'll know soon enough.

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FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 16 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

9:13 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , ,

After a pretty long string of accurate box office predictions, ShowBuzzDaily really missed the boat on The Lion King in 3D.  We were debating between an $11 million or $15 million forecast and decided to go with the lower number.  But wow was there interest in the 3D version of the Disney classic: an estimated $31 million weekend.  The other openers are lost in the shuffle, but Lion King is giving the box office some life (and giving Disney a reason to go back into the vault again selectively).  Overall the weekend is looking like it will be up around 1% from this weekend last year (turning around what was looking to be a down 15% weekend).

The Lion King in 3D is opening way above a flawed forecast ($8.8 million Friday for an expected $31 million this weekend versus an $11 million forecast).  The updated reissue is headed for $121 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate.  International numbers will be in our overseas round-up late Sunday.  Critics nationwide are broadly positive about the film (89% positive at RottenTomatoes) so we could some adjustments upward in the final gross in the next few weeks if the word of mouth on the look of the film is very positive. 



Drive is opening close forecast ($4.0 million Friday for an estimated $11 million opening weekend, compared to an $12 million prediction).  The film is on track for $42 million in North America.  Critics nationwide also have been very positive (93% positive at RottenTomatoes). 

Straw Dogs is opening well below forecast ($1.98 million Friday for an expected $5.5 million this weekend versus a $9 million forecast).  The movie is headed for $20 million in North America.  Critics nationwide have been negative (38% positive so far).       

I Don't Know How She Does It is also opening well below forecast ($1.56 million Friday for an expected $4.5 million this weekend versus a $8 million forecast).  The movie is headed for $11 million in North America.  Critics have been pretty harsh on the Sarah Jessica Parker film (20% positive so far).      

In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions.     

Contagion is having a good second weekend, down only 33% from its solid opening.  The Matt Damon virus thriller has been upgraded to a final domestic estimate of almost $90 million. 
  
September 16-18, 2011   Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early   Friday  Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final*
Lion King in 3D (Dis)    [$11  ]    $31.0   $ 8.8     $121
Contagion (WB)           [$13  ]    $15.0   $ 4.6     $ 87+
Drive (FilmDis)          [$12  ]    $11.0   $ 4.0     $ 42
The Help (DW/Dis)        [$ 6  ]    $ 6.5   $ 1.9     $168
Straw Dogs (Sony)        [$ 9  ]    $ 5.5   $ 2.0     $ 20
I Don't Know How (Wein)  [$ 8  ]    $ 4.5   $ 1.6     $ 11
The Debt (Focus)         [$ 3  ]    $ 3.1   $ 0.9     $ 34
Warrior (LG)             [$ 3.5]    $ 3.0   $ 0.9     $ 20
Rise of Planet Apes (Fox)[$ 2  ]    $ 2.7   $ 0.8     $183
Colombiana (Sony)        [$ 2  ]    $ 2.5   $ 0.7     $ 39
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade. 


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $88 million total, up 1% from the same calendar weekend last year when The Town and Easy A opened and up 7% from the typical total for this weekend the last four years.   

Top 12 Films: Weekend #37
     Volume     (millions)
2011  $ 88  (+7% vs 2007-10 average; +1% vs 2010) 

2007-10
Avg   $ 83            Movies Opening That Weekend
2010  $ 87  The Town $24, Easy A $18, Devil $12    
2009  $ 87  Cloudy Chance Meatballs $30, The Informant! $10.5
2008  $ 76  Lakeview Terrace $15, My Best Friend's Girl $8
2007  $ 80  Resident Evil Extinction $24, Good Luck Chuck $14
 


Next Weekend
Opening next week are Dolphin Tale from Warner Brothers, Abduction from Lionsgate, Moneyball from Sony, and Killer Elite from Open Road Films.  Those movies will be compared to Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps ($19 million opening weekend), Legends of the Guardians ($16 million), and You Again ($8 million).  

Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.  

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THE BIJOU: Early Friday Boxoffice

1:02 AM | Labels: , , , , , ,


The Hollywood Reporter has early Friday numbers, and they foretell some surprises for the weekend boxoffice.  Chief among them is the remarkable $7-8M that the 3D pre-Blu-Ray reissue of Disney's THE LION KING grossed on Friday alone, which should mean a weekend of close to $24M, far above expectations.  The combination of nostalgia and the lack of any major family attraction since The Smurfs opened on July 29 seems to have done wonders for this 1994 film.  The 2d slot for the weekend appears to belong to last week's #1 picture CONTAGION, which looks to have a very strong hold with only around a 40% decline for a $13M weekend.

The news is less good for the newcomers.  DRIVE is faring best, with a $10-11M weekend that would be just a bit below expectations--however, what has to be worrisome is that audience reaction seems to be deeply split from the critical consensus, with only a C- score in exit polls compared to the film's 93% Rotten Tomatoes score.  That suggests awful word of mouth that may drag the picture down over the course of the weekend.

THE HELP, no surprise at this point, should have another great hold, with only a 25% drop from last weekend to $6.7M.  But STRAW DOGS and I DON'T KNOW HOW SHE DOES IT seem to both be headed directly for the trash-heap, with weekend grosses around $5M, substantially less than even the low projections.  I Don't Know at least scored better in the exit polls, with a still-tepid B-, and with its female audience may stick around for a week or two, while the ghost of Sam Peckinpah rejoices as Straw Dogs could manage only a C, and probably would have been better off going directly to VOD (or better yet, not being made at all).

Check out Mitch Metcalf's Weekend Projections, and stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated numbers and analysis.

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THE BIJOU: Early Boxoffice Report

3:33 PM | Labels: , , , , ,


Variety has some very early Friday numbers.  As of midafternoon, The Lion King is doing well, with numbers that are being extrapolated to $15M+ for the weekend.  The other newcomers are less impressive:  Drive may get to a possible $10M+ weekend (the film has received exceptional reviews totalling 93% on Rotten Tomatoes, so it'll be interesting to see if word-of-mouth is its friend as the weekend continues), Straw Dogs and I Don't Know How She Does It (with dismal 38% and 20% Tomato scores) are heading for weekends of $7-8M. 

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for boxoffice numbers and analysis...

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THE BIJOU REVIEW: "Straw Dogs"

3:28 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , ,



STRAW DOGS:  Watch It At Home - Pointless In Every Way

Forget about the artistic comparisons, the insult to film history, and the lack of respect to a great filmmaker no longer with us.  There's not even a commercial reason to remake Sam Peckinpah's 1971 STRAW DOGS.  The title is virtually valueless as a brand name, as the film, for reasons of rights issues and content, has only sporadically been available on homevideo, and rarely, if ever, aired on television.  The only people who really know the film are the serious fans who've sought it out, and they're exactly the ones least likely to appreciate digging up poor Peckinpah's grave.  So... why?

The only justification for a remake would have been some drastically different concept, an insight that could shed new light on the original material, but such is not the case with Rod Lurie's movie, which makes a few changes from Peckinpah's film but largely follows it very closely.  In every meaningful way, Lurie's film is inferior to Peckinpah's.  This isn't because Peckinpah's film is flawless; on the contrary, it's a mess of undigested ideas and styles, and much of it is muddled and over the top.  But it's a great film nonetheless, a milestone in a great artist's career even 40 years after it opened, in part because of Peckinpah's ability to turn his messy, difficult ideas into art.  

Both films concern a couple who return to the wife's home after her father's death (in Peckinpah's film, the setting was Cornwall in England; here, it's the deep South).  David Sumner is an intellectual (Dustin Hoffman as a mathematician for Peckinpah, James Marsden a screenwriter for Lurie), and his wife Amy is a hot young number given to wearing a minimum of clothes (Susan George in 1971, Kate Bosworth now--Bosworth's also been given a profession as an actress) who fled for the big city as soon as high school was done.  The town in both versions is a hotbed of drunken bigotry and, needing a contractor to fix their barn roof, David ends up hiring Amy's old boyfriend Charlie (Del Henney then, Alexander Skarsgard now).  Charlie and his crew are louts who cheat and belittle David, and eventually turn violent, attacking Amy.  Meanwhile, the town's pathetic retarded man (David Warner/Dominic Purcell) is teased by a local girl with dire results, leading to his taking refuge with the Sumners and a dlimactic showdown with Charlie and his pals.   

Peckinpah didn't smooth out any of the edges of his politically incorrect, even offensive ideas in 1971, and the original Straw Dogs was hugely controversial because it suggested Amy's own actions had partly led to her attack (and worse, that she partly enjoyed it), and then that it took brutal killings to finally make her husband a real man.  Neither of those concepts are present in Lurie's version:  Amy indignantly objects when David suggests she's flaunting her sexuality to the workmen, and David has lost his note of triumph at the movie's climax.  With no ideas at all to replace Peckinpah's, what remains is merely a half-decent action movie. 

All of Lurie's cast is, in one way or another, miscast.  The buff Marsden simply isn't the intellectual and wimp that Dustin Hoffman embodied in 1971, despite Lurie's attempts to show Marsden as clumsy from time to time, and without that basic brain vs. brawn conflict, the whole focus of the movie is lost.  It was also a mistake to change David's profession, since a mathematician is far more clearly a man lost in his own intellect than someone writing a movie about Russian soldiers in World War II--also, David's inability to explain his script to the townspeople in terms of it being a war movie with action sequences just makes him seem silly.  (Possibly this was Lurie's misplaced salute to Peckinpah's World War II movie Cross of Iron.)  Bosworth either doesn't have or has been directed not to display the knack for ambiguously sexual hostility that Susan George had.  And although Alexander Skarsgad is a fine actor, and viewers of True Blood know he can certainly play menace, he's all wrong as an uneducated redneck--Skarsgard comes off as so low-key and sophisticated that he could almost be playing David.  (There's an unintended joke when Charlie makes fun of Amy's no longer having a Southern accent, since as played by Skarsgard, he sounds himself like he might own a gallery in Soho.)

Beyond that, it's not an insult to Lurie to say that his filmmaking skills simply don't compare to Peckinpah's, since whose do?  But Lurie's the one who asked for the comparison, so it must be said that his Straw Dogs has none of the photographic, musical or certainly editing flair of Peckinpah's film (when, in one sequence, Lurie tries his hand at some subliminal editing, the result has little impact).  If the original Straw Dogs didn't exist, Lurie's picture might look acceptable, but then, if the original didn't exist, this one wouldn't either.

For admirers of Sam Peckinpah, the pain has only begun; reports are that Tony Scott is planning a remake of Peckinpah's true masterpiece and one of the greatest films ever made, The Wild Bunch.  Perhaps, if we're lucky, the movie gods will place that one in development hell and it will never actually come to pass; for now, we have this thoroughly unnecessary, mediocre rehash.  However, the existence of the new Straw Dogs has had one positive effect;  it's put the Peckinpah original back into homevideo circulation (although the new audience-unfriendly Netflix doesn't stock it), and for that, and that alone, Rod Lurie deserves our thanks.

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WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS September 16-18

8:32 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , ,

A rather sleepy weekend ahead, most likely down about 15% from the same weekend last year.  No dominant openers arrive Friday, leaving the weekend Contagion's to lose.  

Opening at more than 2,400 theaters in North America by FilmDistrict, Drive should average $5,000 per theater (for $12 million for Friday-Sunday).  (All films the last two years have averaged $5,525 per theater in their opening weekend.)  Drive has received near universally positive reviews, with 94% positive at RottenTomatoes.  This film should be on track for around $45 million in North America when it leaves theaters, although there is some upside in that number.


At about 2,200 theaters, The Lion King in 3D from Disney should average $5,100 per theater (for $11 million this weekend).  The re-release in the unnecessary extra dimension has been very well received by critics nationwide, with 91% positive at RottenTomatoes.  This film is probably headed for around $40-50 million domestically, adding to the $328 million it made domestically and $788 million worldwide (in 1994 dollars).  (In today's dollars, the original run of Lion King would be $655 million domestic and $1.57 billion worldwide.) 

Opening at 2,200 theaters from Sony, Straw Dogs should average a weak $3,600 from Friday-Sunday (for a $9 million opening weekend).  Early reviews are mixed, with 60% positive.  Straw Dogs is most likely on track for $25 million in North America.     

Finally, opening at 2,800 theaters from Weinstein, I Don't Know How She Does It should average a tepid $2,800 from Friday-Sunday (for an $8 million opening weekend).  Early reviews are brutal, with only 29% positive.  The Sarah Jessica Parker vehicle is on track for $20 million in North America.     

                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
September 16-18                  Positive   Weekend   Total*

Drive               FilmDis  R      94%      $ 12.0    $ 45
Lion King 3D            Dis  G      91%      $ 11.0    $ 45
Straw Dogs             Sony  R      60%      $  9.0    $ 25 
I Don't Know How She   Wein  PG13   29%      $  8.0    $ 20

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

Contagion will probably hold on to the top spot with a decent 43% decline this weekend, although Drive or even The Lion King in 3D could challenge it for the weekend crown.  The other returning films are slipping into oblivion, well below $10 million this weekend.

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
September 16-18                 vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*

Contagion               WB        -43%      $13.0     $ 72
The Help            Dis/DW        -31%      $ 6.0     $171
Warrior                 LG        -38%      $ 3.5     $ 24
The Debt             Focus        -41%      $ 3       $ 36
Rise of Planet of Apes Fox        -46%      $ 2       $183 
Colombiana            Sony        -46%      $ 2       $ 41


Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $83 million total, ranking 51st of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total (and the total for the same weekend in 2009) was $87 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like $74 million, down about 15% from this weekend last year.       


This Weekend Last Two Years

9/17/10

 Easy A SONY PG13 Emma Stone Cam Gigandet 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $17  Actual: $18
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $62  Actual: $58
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $16

 The Town WB R Ben Affleck Jon Hamm 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $16  Actual: $24
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $94  Actual: $92
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $53

 Devil UNI PG13 Geoffrey Arend Chris Messina 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $14  Actual: $12
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $37  Actual: $34
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $29

 Alpha and Omega LG PG   
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $7  Actual: $9
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $21  Actual: $25
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $22

9/18/09

 Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs SONY PG   
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $25  Actual: $30
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $127  Actual: $125
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $108

 Jennifer's Body FOX R Megan Fox  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $15  Actual: $7
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $20  Actual: $16
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $15

 The Informant! WB R Matt Damon  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $11  Actual: $10
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $40  Actual: $33
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $8

 Love Happens UNI PG13 Jennifer Aniston Aaron Eckhart 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $9  Actual: $8
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $21  Actual: $23
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $11

Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up as a whole (based on Friday's early numbers), on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.

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