A rather sleepy weekend ahead, most likely down about 15% from the same weekend last year. No dominant openers arrive Friday, leaving the weekend Contagion's to lose. Opening at more than 2,400 theaters in North America by FilmDistrict, Drive should average $5,000 per theater (for $12 million for Friday-Sunday). (All films the last two years have averaged $5,525 per theater in their opening weekend.) Drive has received near universally positive reviews, with 94% positive at RottenTomatoes. This film should be on track for around $45 million in North America when it leaves theaters, although there is some upside in that number.
At about 2,200 theaters, The Lion King in 3D from Disney should average $5,100 per theater (for $11 million this weekend). The re-release in the unnecessary extra dimension has been very well received by critics nationwide, with 91% positive at RottenTomatoes. This film is probably headed for around $40-50 million domestically, adding to the $328 million it made domestically and $788 million worldwide (in 1994 dollars). (In today's dollars, the original run of Lion King would be $655 million domestic and $1.57 billion worldwide.)
Opening at 2,200 theaters from Sony, Straw Dogs should average a weak $3,600 from Friday-Sunday (for a $9 million opening weekend). Early reviews are mixed, with 60% positive. Straw Dogs is most likely on track for $25 million in North America.
Finally, opening at 2,800 theaters from Weinstein, I Don't Know How She Does It should average a tepid $2,800 from Friday-Sunday (for an $8 million opening weekend). Early reviews are brutal, with only 29% positive. The Sarah Jessica Parker vehicle is on track for $20 million in North America.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
September 16-18 Positive Weekend Total*
Drive FilmDis R 94% $ 12.0 $ 45
Lion King 3D Dis G 91% $ 11.0 $ 45
Straw Dogs Sony R 60% $ 9.0 $ 25
I Don't Know How She Wein PG13 29% $ 8.0 $ 20
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Contagion will probably hold on to the top spot with a decent 43% decline this weekend, although Drive or even The Lion King in 3D could challenge it for the weekend crown. The other returning films are slipping into oblivion, well below $10 million this weekend.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
September 16-18 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Contagion WB -43% $13.0 $ 72
The Help Dis/DW -31% $ 6.0 $171
Warrior LG -38% $ 3.5 $ 24
The Debt Focus -41% $ 3 $ 36
Rise of Planet of Apes Fox -46% $ 2 $183
Colombiana Sony -46% $ 2 $ 41
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $83 million total, ranking 51st of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend's total (and the total for the same weekend in 2009) was $87 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like $74 million, down about 15% from this weekend last year.
This Weekend Last Two Years
9/17/10
Easy A SONY PG13 Emma Stone Cam Gigandet
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $17 Actual: $18
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $62 Actual: $58
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $16
The Town WB R Ben Affleck Jon Hamm
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $16 Actual: $24
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $94 Actual: $92
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $53
Devil UNI PG13 Geoffrey Arend Chris Messina
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $14 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $37 Actual: $34
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $29
Alpha and Omega LG PG
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $7 Actual: $9
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $21 Actual: $25
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $22
9/18/09
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs SONY PG
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $25 Actual: $30
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $127 Actual: $125
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $108
Jennifer's Body FOX R Megan Fox
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $15 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $20 Actual: $16
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $15
The Informant! WB R Matt Damon
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $11 Actual: $10
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $40 Actual: $33
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $8
Love Happens UNI PG13 Jennifer Aniston Aaron Eckhart
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $9 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $21 Actual: $23
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $11
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform. Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up as a whole (based on Friday's early numbers), on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.
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