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INTERNATIONAL BOX OFFICE NUMBERS: Rio Pulls Away

In its second week on the international box office chart, Rio has widened its lead at the top, emerging as the worldwide choice among movies in the first third of 2011 (until we see how Fast Five fares).  

Rio (Fox) now has over $200 million overseas, with possibly $50 million more to go.  This would give Rio over $400 million worldwide.  Hop also expanded its overseas gross this week but only to $47 million to date.   

New to the international ranking this week, Tyler Perry's Madea's Big Happy Family has no overseas gross to date, and its international tally will remain at or near zero given Perry's track record.  Water for Elephants has a few million dollars in international box office now and might build to $35 million or so overseas.  Finally, African Cats has no overseas grosses yet, but given the performance of Earth and Oceans we should expect an international take of up to $60 million for African Cats.  Add that to the $20 million domestic number and Cats suddenly has a worldwide total of $80 million.  Certainly not a blockbuster, but not bad for a relatively low cost documentary.

Before going to the worldwide table for January-April movies, let's take a look back at April 2010 and see how the films released in that month fared in total: domestic, international and home exhibition (DVD, PPV, etc.).  The chart below ranks each April 2010 film by its "ultimate" number, with blue representing the domestic gross, red the international tally, and green the DVD.  The first thing that jumps out is the "craps" nature of the business.  The right roll of the dice can result in absolutely enormous returns, a few rolls end in middling to decent returns, but most rolls end in misery.  This distribution is fairly typical for a month, although a summer month will usually need to go out to $800 million or more for the lucky few movies at the top.

The other thing that sticks out is the large contribution that international can make to movies of all sizes and the relatively modest upside of DVD across the board.  Of course, neither the strength of overseas sales nor the weakness of home video is news -- it's just that the picture could not be any clearer.  Finally, individual quirks can be identified, such as Tyler Perry's complete lack of appeal overseas.  Why Did I Get Married Too? and The Last Song had nearly identical domestic grosses, but the former fell far short of a $100 million ultimate while the latter easily passed that benchmark.  Future versions of this chart will include estimates for pay TV, cable TV and broadcast TV rights.  If you have any suggestions for the chart, please feel free to comment below.


Turning back to the January-April 2011 films, see the complete ranking chart after the jump.  (As you will see, the Jan-Apr chart remains in table form and will be converted to a graphic when the graph can handle 40-50 titles.)



JAN-APR 2011 FILM GROSSES                                   Int'l
 Rank                               ($ MILLIONS)           Impact
LW TW                      Worldwide  Domestic   Overseas   Ratio
 1  1  Rio                    355        152       203*     1.33
 2  2  Rango                  238        122       116       .95
 3  3  Green Hornet           229         99       130      1.32
 4  4  Just Go with It        210        107       103       .97
 5  5  Battle: Los Angeles    199         83       116      1.34
 6  6  Gnomeo and Juliet      179        101        78       .77
 8  7  Hop                    173        126        47*      .37
 7  8  No Strings Attached    145         71        74      1.05

 9  9  I Am Number Four       129         55        74      1.35
10 10  Limitless              127         85        42       .50

11 11  Unknown                116         65        51       .79
12 12  Adjustment Bureau      114         63        51       .81
13 13  Justin Bieber: Never    95         73        22       .31
14 14  The Rite                94         33        61      1.85
15 15  Season of the Witch     84         25        59      2.38
20 16  Sanctum                 79         23        56      2.43
17 17  Big Mommas: Like Father 79         38        41      1.09
16 18  Paul                    77         37        40      1.07
18 19  Sucker Punch            77         34        43*     1.27
19 20  Source Code             76         57        19*      .34

22 21  The Dilemma             67         48        19       .39
23 22  Hall Pass               66         47        19       .41
24 23  Lincoln Lawyer          65         60         5       .08
21 24  Scre4m                  62         44        18*      .41
25 25  Red Riding Hood         59         37        23       .60
-- 26  Madea's Big Happy Fam   56         56         0       .00
27 27  Insidious               56         56         0       .00
26 28  Diary Wimpy Kid 2       54         52         2       .04
 

28 29  The Mechanic            51         29        22       .76
-- 30  Water for Elephants     49         46         3*      .07 

29 31  Hanna                   45         45         0*      .00
33 32  Soul Surfer             42         42         0*      .00
30 33  Arthur                  38         38         0*      .00
31 34  The Roommate            37         37         0       .00
32 35  Mars Needs Moms         37         21        16       .76

34 36  The Eagle               32         19        13       .71
35 37  Beastly                 29         28         1       .04
38 38  Drive Angry 3D          28         10        18      1.80
36 39  Your Highness           23         21         2*      .09
37 40  Country Strong          20         20         0       .00 


-- 41  African Cats            18         18         0*      .00
39 42  The Conspirator         12         12         0*      .00
40 43  Take Me Home Tonight     6          6         0       .00

TOTAL Jan-Apr Movies         3826       2239      1586*      .71

How to read: From left to right, the first two numbers are a film's rankings Last Week (LW) and This Week (TW), Worldwide gross (in millions), which is the sum of Estimated Domestic Final and International gross to date. (The two numbers do not always add up to the worldwide number exactly due to rounding.)  The International Impact Ratio indicates relative international performance. The Domestic number is either the actual final gross or the latest ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Ultimate estimate if the movie is still playing. The Overseas number is the actual gross to date, which tends to lag in reporting. An asterisk indicates significant overseas upside to come.  The International Impact Ratio is the film's Overseas number divided by its Domestic number. 


The worldwide box office ranking now includes movies released in 2011 through April 22. 

The total numbers at the bottom of the chart show that worldwide box office has crossed the $3.8 billion line, in this, the weakest third of the year.  A reminder, we divide the year into thirds (Winter/Spring movies released between January and April, Summer Movies between May and August, and Fall/Holiday movies between September and December).  We will chart the January-April movies through the end of May, when we will start tracking the international audience for the May-August films.      

Check back tomorrow for a look at the mid-week domestic performance of movies currently in release (a combined look at Monday and Tuesday numbers).   

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