Another up weekend at the box office is on store, led by an eclectic assortment of films. It should be an up weekend, led by Tyler Perry's Madea's Big Happy Family and a forecast $31 million opening. Playing at over 2,100 theaters, Madea should average over $14,000 per theater, a very good number. Water for Elephants should open with about $16 million. Playing in more theaters (around 2,700), Water will have a more down-to-earth $6,000 per theater average (above the $4,900 opening weekend norm but not extraordinary). Finally, it's Earth Day, so Disney releases a nature documentary. African Cats should open with around $7 million (around $6,000 per theater at 1,200 theaters). This is the third in a series of Earth Day films (the series started two years ago with Earth and continued last year with Oceans). See the performance of Earth and Oceans below in the "Same Weekend Last Two Years" section. African Cats has been well reviewed -- in fact it is the only film of the three openers that has been reviewed at all. Tyler Perry generally does not screen his films for reviewers, and the lack of press screenings for Water for Elephants does not inspire confidence for long-term playability.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
April 22-24 Positive Weekend Total*
.
Madea's Big Happy Family LG PG13 n/a $31 $ 67
Water for Elephants Fox PG13 n/a $16 $ 38
African Cats Dis G 70% $ 7 $ 21
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowbuzzDaily projection of the North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Tyler Perry Film Track
Tyler Perry films has a faithful audience that shows up the first weekend. His movies generally open with $20 million or more, with Madea films usually doing better than the others. His best opening was $41 million for Madea Goes to Jail. But Perry's audience is highly concentrated in the first week or two. The final grosses for Tyler Perry movies are usually about two times the opening weekend number, far lower than the average 2.5 or 3.0 opening weekend multiple. His fan base is highly motivated but limited in scope.
Tyler Perry Films (millions)
(all titles preceded Release Opening Domestic
by "Tyler Perry's") Date Weekend Total
Why Did I Get Married Too? 4.2.2010 $29 $60
I Can Do Bad All By Myself 9.11.2009 $23 $52
Madea Goes to Jail 2.20.2009 $41 $90
The Family That Preys 9.12.2008 $17 $37
Meet the Browns 3.21.2008 $20 $42
Why Did I Get Married? 10.12.2007 $21 $55
Daddy's Little Girls 2.14.2007 $11 $33
Madea's Family Reunion 2.24.2006 $30 $63
Diary of a Mad Black Woman 2.25.2005 $22 $51
Rio will have a very good second weekend and a relatively small decline versus the opening weekend number. If Madea stumbles, Rio could sneak into first place. Assisted by Easter weekend, Hop should have a very low weekend decline and come close to staying in double digits this weekend (in millions of dollars).
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
Rio Fox -33% $26 $141
Hop Uni -16% $ 9 $108
Scre4m Weins -55% $ 8.5 $ 51
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $84 million total, ranking 48th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend's total was $90 million, and April 24-26, 2009 was $104 million. This weekend is looking like $120 million: the second up weekend in a row (but only the third up weekend so far this year).
This Weekend Last Two Years
This weekend has been very soft the past few years because of a lack of strong openers. As you can see below, the list is dominated by many films with $10-15 million opening weekends and $35-40 million domestic grosses. It is also interesting that very few films this time of year the past couple of seasons had any international appeal -- with the notable exception of the Disney Earth series (check out their solid international grosses below) and the CBS Films/ Jennifer Lopez effort Back-Up Plan. Although not a boffo performance, this was the first in a series of moves that successfully established Lopez in the popular culture again.
4.23.2010
The Back-Up Plan (CBS) PG13 Jennifer Lopez
Opening Weekend Forecast $13; Actual: $12
Domestic Final Estimate: $37; Actual: $37
International: $40
Opening Weekend Forecast $13; Actual: $12
Domestic Final Estimate: $37; Actual: $37
International: $40
Domestic Final Estimate: $31; Actual: $24
International: $6
Oceans (Dis) G
Opening Weekend Forecast $6; Actual: $6
Domestic Final Estimate: $23; Actual: $19
International: $63
Domestic Final Estimate: $23; Actual: $19
International: $63
Obsessed (Sony) PG13 Beyonce Knowles Idris Elba
Opening Weekend Forecast $17; Actual: $29
Domestic Final Estimate: $69; Actual: $68
International: $6
Opening Weekend Forecast $17; Actual: $29
Domestic Final Estimate: $69; Actual: $68
International: $6
Earth (Dis) G
Opening Weekend Forecast $8; Actual: $9
The Soloist (PAR/DW) PG13 Jamie Foxx Robert Downey JrOpening Weekend Forecast $10; Actual: $10
Domestic Final Estimate: $33; Actual: $32
International: $3
Fighting (Uni) PG13 Channing Tatum Terrence Howard
Opening Weekend Forecast $9; Actual: $11
Opening Weekend Forecast $8; Actual: $9
Domestic Final Estimate: $37; Actual: $32
International: $77
International: $77
The Soloist (PAR/DW) PG13 Jamie Foxx Robert Downey Jr
Domestic Final Estimate: $33; Actual: $32
International: $3
Fighting (Uni) PG13 Channing Tatum Terrence Howard
Opening Weekend Forecast $9; Actual: $11
Domestic Final Estimate: $24; Actual: $23
International: $9
International: $9
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