NBC is pretty much dead from 8-9 pm, with the vastly over-rated Community fourth in the time period and not too far above The CW's Vampire Diaries. Parks & Recreation rises to a 2.0 rating but keeps the Peacock in fourth place from 8:30-9:00. Both Community and Parks are slightly below our ratings forecast. But the news was good at 9 pm -- the Carrell-less Office logged a 3.9 rating (tied for second in the slot) as viewers came to see who the new boss will be. Whitney premiered to 82% retention of The Office, a respectable percentage that will be watched very carefully in the next few weeks. If it starts dropping into the low-70% range, eyebrows will be raised. But anything in the high-70% range or above will speak to patience. But the mostly bad news this week for NBC returned at 10 pm with the rejection of Prime Suspect. 56% retention of the Whitney lead-in, a distant last place in the hour, and below a 2 rating. Not good news for the network or the local NBC stations who live and die off the lead-in to their late local news.
And what about FOX? Well, they quietly won the night with The X Factor. Yes, it is much lower than American Idol, about which there has been much gnashing of teeth. But television is about winning time periods and winning nights -- by that measure The X Factor is getting the job done on a very competitive evening.
On The CW, the two dramas drifted down a few tenths after coasting the first week with repeat competition.
Through the first four days of Premiere Week, CBS is leading with a 4.1 demo rating, followed by FOX at a 3.8, ABC at a 3.4, and NBC all the way down at a 2.1. The CW is averaging a 0.7.
THURSDAY FALL 2011 Estimates Episode Rating
May Sep #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Avg
ABC
800 Charlie's Ang 2.3 2.2 2.1
900 Grey's Anatomy 3.7 3.6 4.1
1000 Private Practi 2.6 2.5 9/29
CBS
800 Big Bang Theor 3.9 4.0 4.9
830 How Gentleman 3.2 2.9 9/29
900 Person Interest3.5 3.5 3.1
1000 Mentalist 3.3 3.3 2.8
NBC
800 Community 1.9 1.9 1.7
830 Parks & Rec 2.1 2.1 2.0
900 The Office 3.1 3.0 3.9
930 Whitney 2.6 2.4 3.2
1000 Prime Suspect 2.5 2.4 1.8
FOX
800 X-Factor 3.4 3.4 4.2
900 Bones 2.5 2.5 11/3
CW
800 Vampire Diar n/a n/a 1.5 1.2
900 Secret Circle n/a n/a 1.3 0.9
An important note: the ratings estimates are for original episodes across the entire Fall (from mid-September through mid-December). Generally, a series will premiere at a high level and then settle into a more normal number by week four-six. The important number to look at as the season unfolds is the average-to-date column at the far right. By the time episode four rolls around, look at the average of episodes one-four and you should have a pretty good idea how the fall -- and the entire season -- will sort out. CW shows are not currently estimated because we have incomplete historical data for the network's time periods. CW estimates should be available later this season or early next season.
Click below to read the LATEST RESULTS and UPDATED RATINGS PROJECTIONS for the other nights of the week:
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