THE SKED: MONDAY Ratings September 19

Two and a Half Men premiered with a 10.3 Adult 18-49 rating, about equal to a good Sunday Night Football game but not at the level of an AFC Championship game, as CBS head Les Moonves boldly predicted.  Nonetheless, this is a great number to welcome Ashton Kutcher to the show.  Can the show maintain this level for the season?  Of course, not.  We estimate Two and a Half Men will settle into a high-5 rating next week and a high-4 in subsequent weeks, still well above our projected rating for the quarter. 

The news is not good for NBC.  Both The Sing-Off and Playboy Club were under a 2 rating and below our meager forecast for the entire quarter.  The Sing-Off was a moderate success in December (against mostly repeat competition), but it just couldn't stand up to real competition of season premieres.  And Playboy Club looks DOA, a 1.6 demo rating and only 5 million viewers 2+ (Castle attracted over 13 million viewers on ABC in the time period and Hawaii Five-O had 12 million).  In all probability, the NBC numbers will remain the same in coming weeks or drift down slightly.



2 Broke Girls is off to a terrific start with a 7 demo rating.  It should go down a high-3 rating next week in its normal 8:30 time period, but a low-4 rating is not impossible.On ABC, Dancing with the Stars opened about where we expected, while Castle continue to impress (only one-tenth of a rating point behind time period leader Hawaii Five-O).  ABC's patience with Castle is admirable, and the show has slowly and increasingly taken good advantage of its Dancing lead-in.

MONDAY FALL 2011    Estimates         Episode Rating      
                    May   Sep   #1   #2   #3   #4   #5   #6   Avg
ABC
 800 Dancing        3.7   3.6   3.9
 900 Dancing        4.4   4.2   3.9
1000 Castle         2.6   2.6   3.3
CBS
 800 How I Met      3.3   3.3   4.9
 830 2 Broke Girls  3.0   3.2   7.0 (special 9:30 time)
 900 2.5 Men        4.1   4.2   10.3
 930 Mike & Molly   3.4   3.6   9/26
1000 Hawaii Five-O  2.7   2.7   3.4
NBC
 800 The Sing-Off   2.2   2.3   1.9
 900 The Sing-Off   2.4   2.5   1.8
1000 Playboy Club   2.1   2.1   1.6
FOX
 800 Terra Nova     2.7   2.5   9/26
 900 House          3.4   3.3   10/3
CW
 800 Gossip Girl    n/a   n/a   9/26
 900 Hart of Dixie  n/a   n/a   9/26

An important note:  the ratings estimates are for original episodes across the entire Fall (from mid-September through mid-December).  Generally, a series will premiere at a high level and then settle into a more normal number by week four-six.  The important number to look at as the season unfolds is the average-to-date column at the far right.  By the time episode four rolls around, look at the average of episodes one-four and you should have a pretty good idea how the fall -- and the entire season -- will sort out.