This weekend is all about Twilight Breaking Dawn, which will be huge. But Happy Feet Two should manage an opening that would look stellar on any other recent weekend. Overall box office this weekend should be up 33% from the same weekend last year.
Opening at more than 4,100 theaters in North America by Summit, Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 should average an enormous $36,200 per theater (for $148.5 million for Friday-Sunday). (All films the last two years have averaged $5,525 per theater in their opening weekend.) Early reviews suck: 11% positive at RottenTomatoes. The film should finish domestically with about $310 million.
Twilight Saga Film Track Opening Domestic Overseas
Weekend Total Total
Twilight 11.21.2008 $ 69.6 $192.8 $199.8
Twilight New Moon 11.20.2009 $142.8 $296.6 $413.2
Twilight Eclipse 6.30.2010 $ 64.8 $300.5 $397.9
Twilight Saga Film Track Opening Domestic Overseas
Weekend Total Total
Twilight 11.21.2008 $ 69.6 $192.8 $199.8
Twilight New Moon 11.20.2009 $142.8 $296.6 $413.2
Twilight Eclipse 6.30.2010 $ 64.8 $300.5 $397.9
Also opening, at about 2,800 theaters, Happy Feet Two from Warner Brothers should average a very good $10,400 per theater (for $39.5 million this weekend). The animated family sequel is only 33% positive at RottenTomatoes . Happy Feet Two is probably headed for around $135 million domestically.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
November 18-20 Positive Weekend Total*
Twilight Breaking Dawn 1Sum PG 11% $148.5 $310
Happy Feet Two Rel R 33% $39.5 $135
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Weekend declines should be in the normal 45-55% range.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
November 18-20 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Immortals Rel -57% $14.0 $ 91
Puss in Boots DW/Par -50% $12.5 $177
Jack and Jill Sony -53% $12.0 $ 75
Tower Heist Uni -48% $ 6.5 $ 76
J. Edgar WB -44% $ 6.5 $ 33
A Very Harold & Kumar WB -49% $ 3.0 $ 39
In Time Fox -51% $ 2.0 $ 40
Footloose Par -45% $ 1.5 $ 56
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $186 million total, ranking 1st of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend's total was $186 million, and the same weekend in 2009 was $250 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like $249 million, up 33% from this weekend last year and up 34% from the four-year average for this weekend.
This Weekend Last Two Years
11/19/10
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 WB PG13 Daniel Radcliffe Emma Watson
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $126 Actual: $125
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $338 Actual: $295
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $660
The Next Three Days LG PG13 Russell Crowe Liam Neeson
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $10 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $26 Actual: $21
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $42
11/20/09
Twilight Saga: New Moon SUMMIT PG13 Kristen Stewart Robert Pattinson
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $105 Actual: $143
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $318 Actual: $297
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $413
The Blind Side WB PG13 Sandra Bullock Kathy Bates
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $16 Actual: $34
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $221 Actual: $256
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $53
Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire LG R
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: n/a Actual: $11
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $56 Actual: $48
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $15
Planet 51 SONY PG
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $12 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $53 Actual: $42
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $63
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