WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS January 20-22

The third weekend of the year should generate about $114 million for the top 12 films.  This would be a marked improvement from last year's very weak comparable weekend, but in line with most other years for this weekend.  Underworld Awakening should open at #1 with $25+ million, but don't look for this installment in the series to have real staying power in subsequent weeks.           


Opening at over 2,900 theaters, Underworld Awakening from Sony should average a solid $8,800 per theater (for $25.5 million Friday-Sunday).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.]  Very few reviews are posted for this film on RottenTomatoes, not nearly enough to summarize critical sentiment.  Underworld Awakening is on track for a preliminary $63 million domestically.  The previous domestic grosses for films in this series: Underworld $51.9 million (9.19.2003), Underworld: Evolution $62.3 million (1.20.2006), Underworld: Rise of the Lycans $45.8 million (1.23.2009).      

Opening in about 2,500 theaters, Red Tails from 20th Century Fox should average about $5,900 per theater ($14.5 million Friday-Sunday). The WW II action drama about the Tuskegee Airmen should gross about $38 million domestically.

Expanding to over 2,500 theaters, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close from Warner Brothers should average about $5,000 per theater ($12.5 million from Friday-Sunday).  Critics are surprisingly split over the latest from Stephen Daldry (director of The Reader, The Hours and Billy Elliot): only 49% positive at RottenTomatoes.  The drama should be on track for a final tally of $38 million domestic.

Opening at around 2,000 theaters, Haywire should average only $4,000 per theater ($8.0 million Friday-Sunday).  Despite very supportive reviews (85% positive), the action film from director Stephen Soderbergh should play to a fairly limited audience.  Total domestic gross should be around $32 million.   



                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
January 20-22                    Positive   Weekend   Total*

Underworld Awakening     Sony R     n/a      $25.5     $ 63 
Red Tails                Fox  PG13  n/a      $14.5     $ 38
Extremely Loud & Incred. WB   PG13  49%      $12.5     $ 38 
Haywire                  Rel  R     85%      $ 8.0     $ 32


Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

Fairly typical drops are in store for most holdovers (in the -45% to -50% range).   

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
January 20-22                   vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*


Contraband              Uni       -50%      $12.0     $ 71
Beauty & Beast 3D       Dis       -42%      $10.5     $ 84
Mission: Impossible 4   Par       -41%      $ 7.0     $223
Joyful Noise             WB       -40%      $ 6.5     $ 32
Sherlock Holmes 2        WB       -44%      $ 5.0     $190 
Iron Lady              Wein       -21%      $ 4.5     $ 20


Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $116 million total, ranking 28th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $89 million, and the same weekend in 2010 was $128 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a decent $114 million, up 28% from this weekend last year but about the same as (down 2%) an "average" comparable weekend.          


This Weekend Last Two Years