The fast national ratings (100% of the country measured but the western time zones inaccurately counted) give last night's Academy Awards a preliminary 10.2 rating with Adults 18-49 and 34.3 million viewers 2+. Now, before we give ourselves an Oscar for our prediction, remember the fast nationals will be adjusted upward as the Pacific time zone is properly counted. (Much of the Pacific time zone's viewing of the Oscar telecast is currently counted in the Red Carpet Arrival show in the preliminary numbers.) If last year's patterns hold, the official Oscar telecast rating will go up to an 11.4 rating with Adults 18-49 (down from last year and the second lowest in history) and 38.8 million viewers 2+ (up slightly from last year), indicating Billy Crystal brought in viewers over 50 but the Academy Awards audience just keeps getting older. We will update with the official numbers when they arrive.
10.4* 32.9* The Artist* SHOWBUZZ FORECAST
How can the important 18-49 ratings be equal (or slightly better) to last year in the initial overnight ratings but down in the fast national and projected official national ratings? Remember that the overnight ratings only measure the largest markets, while the fast nationals and official nationals include the half of the country that lives in smaller markets: more rural and more red state. In addition to trending toward an older audience over 50, the Academy Awards increasingly trend toward larger markets, the coasts, and blue state territory.
CBS averaged a 1.4 rating last night. A repeat 60 Minutes (1.3) kicked off the night, followed by a new Amazing Race (2.1), which was down not surprisingly from last week's 2.6 but similar to last year's similar episode against the Oscars. Repeat dramas rounded out the night: The Mentalist (0.9) and CSI: Miami (1.2). Last year on Oscar night, a 1.7 rating from 7-11 pm: 60 Minutes Presents (1.2), Amazing Race (2.1), Undercover Boss (1.5) and CSI: Miami (2.0).
NBC also averaged a 1.4, up from last year. Repeats before 9 pm, Dateline (1.1) and Celebrity Apprentice (0.8), gave way to an original two-hour Celebrity Apprentice (1.8) from 9:00-11:08 pm. Why the odd end time? So local stations could call their late newscast a special (according to Nielsen rules) and not count the number in their February sweep average. Last week Celebrity Apprentice premiered with a 2.6 rating. Last year on Oscar night, a 0.9 rating from 7-11 pm: Dateline Classic 7-8 pm (0.8), Minute to Win It 8-9 pm (0.7), Minute to Win It 9-10 pm (1.2) and Minute to Win It 10 pm (0.8).
FOX made it three networks at a 1.4 against the Oscars with repeats of animated comedies: Bob's Burgers (0.8), Cleveland Show (1.0), Simpsons (1.6), Napoleon Dynamite (1.6), Family Guy (1.6) and American Dad (1.5). Last year on this night, a 1.9 rating from 7-10 pm: Simpsons 7:00 (1.7), American Dad 7:30 (1.6), Simpsons 8:00 (2.2), Bob's Burgers 8:30 (1.8), Family Guy 9:00 (2.1), Family Guy 9:30 (2.0).
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