Two strong films open Friday, with Rio and Scream 4 poised to fuel the weekend to a strongly positive uptick from the same weekend last year.
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New Films Critics Opening Domestic
April 15-17 Positive Weekend Ultimate*
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Rio Fox G 73% $46.5 $160
Scream 4 Weins R 61% $34 $100
The Conspirator Roadsde PG13 57% $ 2 $ 11
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Ultimate is a very early ShowbuzzDaily projection of the North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
Hop again should be the #1 returning film, although the projected 50% decline from last weekend is worse than it is used to (given the heavy competition from newcomer Rio). The other declines are generally fairly high, as suggested by the sluggish mid-week business the past few days.
Returning Films Change This Domestic
Hop Uni -50% $11 $115
Hanna Foc -47% $6.5 $40
Arthur WB -51% $6 $32
Soul Surfer Tri -47% $5.5 $33
Insidious FilmD -44% $5.5 $52
Source Code Sum -44% $5 $54
Your Highness Uni -54% $4.5 $24
Limitless Rel -43% $3 $81
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $92 million total, ranking 43rd of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend's total was $112 million, and April 17-19, 2009 was $100 million. This weekend is looking like $135 million: only the second up weekend versus 2010 (and the first since Feb 18-20, which was up 6% when Unknown and I Am Number Four opened).
This Weekend Last Two Years
The last few years this weekend has been filled with weak to moderate films. If both Rio and Scream 4 open well, as expected, it will buck a trend of ignoring mid-April for the most part.
4.16.2010
Kick-Ass (LG) R Aaron Johnson Nicolas Cage
Opening Weekend Forecast $29; Actual: $20
Domestic Final Estimate: $60. Actual: $48
International: $48
Opening Weekend Forecast $29; Actual: $20
Domestic Final Estimate: $60. Actual: $48
International: $48
Death at a Funeral (Sony) R Chris Rock Martin Lawrence
Opening Weekend Forecast $21; Actual: $16
Domestic Final Estimate: $46. Actual: $43
International: $6
Opening Weekend Forecast $21; Actual: $16
Domestic Final Estimate: $46. Actual: $43
International: $6
17 Again (WB) PG13 Zac Effron Matthew Perry
Opening Weekend Forecast $22; Actual: $24
Domestic Final Estimate: $66. Actual: $64
International: $72
Opening Weekend Forecast $22; Actual: $24
Domestic Final Estimate: $66. Actual: $64
International: $72
Crank: High Voltage (LG) R Jason Statham Amy Smart
Opening Weekend Forecast $13; Actual: $7
Domestic Final Estimate: $19. Actual: $14
International: $21
State of Play (Uni) PG13 Russell Crowe Ben Affleck
Opening Weekend Forecast $12; Actual: $14
Opening Weekend Forecast $13; Actual: $7
Domestic Final Estimate: $19. Actual: $14
International: $21
State of Play (Uni) PG13 Russell Crowe Ben Affleck
Opening Weekend Forecast $12; Actual: $14
Domestic Final Estimate: $45. Actual: $37
International: $51
International: $51
We want to remind you about a helpful new feature, Showbuzz Basics. You'll find a list of frequently-used terms and jargon (that we sometimes take for granted), as well as some helpful rules of thumb in box office analysis.
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform. Saturday late morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up (based on Friday's actual numbers), on Sunday we will have studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday), and Monday we will have a complete wrap-up based on the actual full-weekend numbers.
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