We'll see if SUPER 8 gets to $40M, but in any case Paramount has done the season's best job of managing expectations. Considering that they've been throwing millions into promoting the movie since the Super Bowl, the idea that the lowest action opening of the summer is somehow good news is a beautiful piece of spin. Remember that although Super 8 is low-budget by blockbuster standards, it still carries the typical $150M+ in worldwide marketing costs, which puts profit a distance away.--and the B+ average it got from Cinemascore is nothing to sing about, especially since the opening night audience for this should have been pure fanbase.
The X-MEN: FIRST CLASS hold is disappointing. This is a high-quality movie that should have benefitted from strong word of mouth, but the combination of the 1960s setting and the no-star cast seems to have turned some audiences off. It could wind up as the lowest-grossing title in its franchise.
Similarly, Hangover, Kung Fu Panda and Pirates are all heading for the lowest grosses (domestically) of their respective series, although Kung Fu had a nice 3rd week hold--deservedly so.
MIDNIGHT IN PARIS saw its per-theatre number come down to earth to around $5500 as it expanded swiftly to nearly 1000 screens--but I'm sure Woody Allen isn't complaining, since even with average holds, it should match Vicky Cristina Barcelona and Match Point as one of his most successful films of the past 25 years.
TREE OF LIFE is expanding more slowly, up to only 47 theatres, and it's holding pretty firmly at around $17K per theatre. Same for BEGINNERS, which inched up to 19 theatres and should do around $12K in each.
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