WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS JUNE 10-12:

Opening at about 3,200 theaters, Super 8 should average a strong $10,300 per theater (for $33 million this weekend) -- but this number might have been much higher.  Critical reviews for this JJ Abrams film have been broadly positive, but interest-in-seeing tracking surveys have been persistently soft.  So the studio is tweaking its launch strategy.  Also, the television ad campaign has been all over the place creatively (brooding sci-fi, straight horror, or what?).  It's our guess that consumers are intrigued by Abrams' and Spielberg's connection to the movie but are confused by the premise, with many choosing to wait this one out. 

At about 2,000 theaters, Judy Moody and the NOT Bummer Summer should average a below-par $3,100 (for $6.5 million this weekend).  Based on a series of books for tweens, the movie will attract some female kids and younger teens, but it is unlikely to be a magnet for their parents.  Successful parent-kid co-viewing films usually aim a little younger on the kid scale while simultaneously providing adult humor that sails above the kids' heads.  Based on the TV ads, Judy Moody relies on silly barf humor that will appeal to few adults.

Expanding to almost 1,000 theaters, Midnight in Paris now has enough distribution to enter our box office model.  Midnight should gross about $5.5 million this weekend (a slightly above average $5,900 per theater -- although remember that movie has been carefully platformed for three weeks to build buzz and $7.4 worth of business to date). 





                                               (millions)

X-Men: First Class should be a solid second place, while we expect Kung Fu Panda 2 to possibly have a slightly better weekend than Hangover Part II (as the steeper weekly decline figures are catching up with Hangover).  Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides and Bridesmaids are getting close to slipping beneath the $10 million mark.