UPDATE: The Hollywood Reporter has refreshed its numbers, and a surprise appears to be coming from the most unlikely direction. Cowboys and Aliens seems to be down a tad, to a $13-13.5M Friday and an underperforming weekend that may not reach $40M--but the shocker is that it could face competition for the weekend's #1 slot from The Smurfs. That hideously reviewed picture (18% on Rotten Tomatoes) may be heading for the same $13-13.5M on Friday, and since it should have a stronger Saturday with the kiddie matinee trade, it could beat Cowboys for the weekend victory. If so, that sound you'd hear would be everyone involved with Cowboys and Aliens collectively blowing their brains out. Meanwhile, Crazy Stupid Love looks like it's overperforming a bit, with a $6.5M on Friday and perhaps $18-19M for the weekend (if word of mouth means anything, it should hold well), and Captain America appears to be headed for a serious second weekend slump of 60% or so, with $25M in the tank. Be sure to come back for Mitch Metcalf's detailed analysis of all the Friday numbers later this morning.
Evening shows are just starting on the East Coast, and it's still mid-afternoon in Los Angeles, but the drive to report instant boxoffice never stops, and the Hollywood Reporter says that COWBOYS AND ALIENS is headed for a $14M Friday (including a negligible $700K from Thursday midnight shows), on its way to $36-43M for the weekend. (Deadline is in the same neighborhood on Cowboys, and adds estimates of $29M for THE SMURFS and $18M for CRAZY STUPID LOVE,) Do these kinds of numbers have any more substance than pre-release estimates based on tracking? We'll see. If the numbers hold, it would mean Cowboys may be slightly under Mitch Metcalf's prediction, while Smurfs and Crazy Stupid are overperforming.
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