This weekend is looking even weaker than expected. The top 12 films should total only $73 million, down 7% from the same weekend last year.
Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 remains in the top spot, a little better than forecast ($16.5 weekend versus a $14.8 million forecast). The Muppets while drop a very bad (for its genre) 61% this weekend to only $11.3 million, well below the $14.7 million forecast. Ouch. The domestic final estimate for Muppets has also been taken down below $100 million.
In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
December 2-4, 2011 Pre-Wknd Wknd Showbuzz
(millions) Showbuzz Early FRI Domestic
Forecast Proj. Actual Final
Twilight Breaking 1 (Sum)[$14.8] $16.5 $ 5.5 $268-
The Muppets (Dis) [$14.7] $11.3 $ 2.7 $ 90-
Hugo (Par) [$ 8.0] $ 7.2 $ 2.0 $ 47
Arthur Christmas (Sony) [$ 6.0] $ 7.0 $ 1.7 $ 46
Happy Feet Two (WB) [$ 6.5] $ 5.8 $ 1.4 $ 66-
Jack and Jill (Sony) [$ 4.7] $ 5.3 $ 1.6 $ 70
The Descendants (Fox) [$ 5.5] $ 4.9 $ 1.4 $ 34
Immortals (Rel) [$ 4.5] $ 4.4 $ 1.3 $ 82
Tower Heist (Uni) [$ 3.8] $ 4.2 $ 1.3 $ 80
Puss In Boots (DW/Par) [$ 3.5] $ 3.0 $ 0.7 $144-
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America. A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a soft $73 million total Friday-Sunday, down 7% from the same calendar weekend last year.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #48
Volume Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011 $ 73 none
2010 $ 78 Warrior's Way $3
2009 $ 91 Brothers $9.5, Armored $6.5, Everybody's Fine $4
2008 $ 77 Punisher:War Zone $4, Cadillac Records $3
2007 $ 73 Golden Compass $26
2007-10
Avg $ 80
Next Weekend
Next weekend, New Year's Eve (romantic comedy from Garry Marshall and Warner Brothers) and The Sitter (R-rated comedy from 20th Century Fox starring Jonah Hill) open. These film will be compared to The Chronicles of Narnia: Voyage of the Dawn Treader ($24 million opening weekend) and The Tourist ($16.5 million) from the comparable weekend in 2010.
Look for studio estimates for the weekend Sunday morning, as well as international results later in the days Sunday.
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