With Christmas coming this Sunday a host of films arrive this important weekend, with three films opening wide Wednesday (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The Adventures of Tintin, and the wide expansion of Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol), one major film opening Friday (We Bought a Zoo), and two major films in effect previewing Sunday (War Horse and The Darkest Hour). We expect Mission: Impossible and Girl with the Dragon Tattoo to have a major impact, while Tintin and Zoo should be more limited. This weekend the last four years has averaged $185 million over the traditional Friday-Sunday period ($169 million in 2007, $180 million in 2008, $260 million in 2009 and a very weak $132 million in 2010). We forecast this weekend to total $145 million, better than last year but well below the other recent years.
Opening at over 2,800 theaters, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo from Sony should average a strong $9,500 per theater Friday-Sunday (for $26.5 million Friday-Sunday and $43 million Wednesday-Sunday). [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.] Critics are generally supportive, 83% positive reviews so far at RottenTomatoes. Girl is on track for $150 million domestically.
After previewing at 425 Imax theaters last weekend, Mission: Impossible -- Ghost Protocol from Paramount expands to over 3,400 theaters Wednesday and should average a solid $9,300 per theater for the three-day weekend (for $31.5 million Friday-Sunday and a total of $65 million since its opening). The fourth Mission: Impossible movie is looking like $180 million domestically. Critics have been very impressed: 94% positive at RottenTomatoes so far, a vast improvement from 61% positive for Mission: Impossible (1996), 57% for M:I 2 (2000), and 70% for M:I 3 (2006).
Opening at about 3,000 theaters Wednesday, the latest attempt to make moviegoers embrace motion capture animation, The Adventures of Tintin, should average a ho-hum $4,500 per theater Friday-Sunday (for $13.5 million Friday-Sunday and $20 million Wednesday-Sunday). The film, based on the comic book series by Belgian artist Herge aka Georges Remi, has received 76% positive reviews so far at RottenTomatoes and should be headed for $90 million domestically in addition to its more impressive $239 million haul so far overseas.
Opening Friday at around 3,000 theaters, We Bought a Zoo starring Matt Damon and from 20th Century Fox should average $4,300 per theater (for $13.0 Friday-Sunday). Zoo is on track for $78 million domestically and has received 71% positive reviews so far at RottenTomatoes.
Opening Sunday, Christmas Day, War Horse (from DreamWorks and distributed by Disney) and Darkest Hour (from Summit), are more like previews than true opening weekends. They will have a chance to prove themselves during the heavily attended week between Christmas and New Year's, when we will have a much better sense of their performance.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
December 23-25 Positive Weekend Total*
Girl with Dragon Tattoo Sony R 83% $26.5 $150
Adventures of Tintin Par PG 76% $13.5 $ 90
We Bought a Zoo Fox PG 71% $13.0 $ 78
War Horse DW/Dis PG13 75% $ 6.0* $ 95
Darkest Hour Summit PG13 n/a $ 3.0* $ 45
*Opening Sunday, December 25 -- one-day only
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
In addition to M:I 4's large weekend increase (as a result of massive theater count expansion), Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows and Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked should have decent declines in their second weekend.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
December 23-25 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Mission: Impossible 4 Par +146% $31.5 $180
Sherlock Holmes 2 WB -43% $22.5 $152
Alvin & Chipmunks 3 Fox -30% $16.2 $140
New Year's Eve WB -44% $ 4.1 $ 40
Twilight Breaking Dawn 1Sum -48% $ 2.2 $271
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $185 million total, ranking 2nd of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend's total was $132 million, and the same weekend in 2009 was $260 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like $145 million, up 10% from this weekend last year (which was an off week for Christmas weekend).
This Weekend Last Two Years
12/24/10
True Grit PAR PG13 Jeff Bridges Josh Brolin
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $18 Actual: $25
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $170 Actual: $171
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $78
Little Fockers UNI PG13 Ben Stiller Robert DeNiro
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $40 Actual: $31
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $180 Actual: $148
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $162
King's Speech WEINS R Colin Firth Geoffrey Rush
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $4 Actual: $4
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $53 Actual: $135
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $275
Gulliver's Travels FOX PG Jack Black Jason Segel
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $11 Actual: $6
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $56 Actual: $43
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $195
12/25/09
Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel FOX PG Jason Lee
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $44 Actual: $49
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $264 Actual: $219
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $224
Sherlock Holmes WB PG13 Robert Downey Jr Jude Law
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $45 Actual: $62
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $246 Actual: $209
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $314
It's Complicated UNI R Meryl Streep Steve Martin
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $20 Actual: $22
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $116 Actual: $113
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $106
Up in the Air PAR R George Clooney Vera Farmiga
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $12 Actual: $11
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $82 Actual: $84
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $79
Nine WEINS PG13 Daniel Day-Lewis Kate Hudson
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $8 Actual: $5
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $24 Actual: $20
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $34
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform. Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up, on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.
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