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FRIDAY JANUARY 20 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

The third weekend of 2012 is better than the same weekend last year, but it's a fairly mediocre weekend looking at a broader historical context.  Underworld Awakening is leading the charge at #1, but Red Tails is not too far behind.   

Underworld Awakening is coming in just under forecast, pulling in $9.4 million Friday and an estimated $23.9 million for the three-day opening weekend, compared to a $25.5 million ShowBuzzDaily forecast.  The fourth Underworld is headed for a preliminary $59 million total domestic, which would put it just behind Underworld Evolution ($62.3 million in 2006) but ahead of Underworld ($51.9 million in 2003) and Underworld: Rise of the Lycans ($45.8 million in 2009). 


Red Tails is beating our prediction: opening with $6 million Friday on its way to almost $18 million for Friday-Sunday, ahead of the $14.5 million prediction.  The action drama about the Tuskegee Airmen is headed for a preliminary $50 million domestic.

Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close is failing to meet even modest expectations: a little over $3 million Friday and $9.4 million this weekend, below the $12.5 million forecast.  The film with Oscar hopes and dreams (cast, director, subject matter right out of the awards playbook) has not wowed critics (an evenly split 50% positive review score at RottenTomatoes) and our forecast of $30 million total domestic does not indicate much mainstream potential.  

Haywire is under our fairly weak forecast, $8.7 million opening weekend versus $8.0 million forecast.  Finishing at #15 this weekend (outside our chart), The Artist is looking to gross $2.3 million this weekend, averaging a low $3,475 at 662 theaters (expanding from 216 last week).  The total gross should stand at $12 million through Sunday.   

In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
  
January 20-22, 2012     Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early    FRI    Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final


Underworld Awakening (So)[$25.5]    $23.9   $ 9.4     $ 59
Red Tails (Fox)          [$14.5]    $17.8   $ 6.0     $ 50
Contraband (Uni)         [$12.0]    $11.9   $ 3.7     $ 74
Extremely Loud & Inc (WB)[$12.5]    $ 9.4   $ 3.2     $ 30
Haywire (Rel)            [$ 8.0]    $ 8.7   $ 2.9     $ 33
Beauty & Beast 3D (Dis)  [$10.5]    $ 7.5   $ 2.1     $ 53--
Joyful Noise (WB)        [$ 6.5]    $ 5.9   $ 1.7     $ 34
Mission: Impossible 4 Par[$ 7.0]    $ 4.9   $ 1.5     $214--
Sherlock Holmes 2 (WB)   [$ 5.0]    $ 4.1   $ 1.3     $187
Iron Lady (Wein)         [$ 4.5]    $ 3.9   $ 1.0     $ 23
Girl Dragon Tattoo (Sony)[$ ---]    $ 3.2   $ 1.0     $109
War Horse (DW/Dis)       [$ ---]    $ 2.9   $ 0.9     $ 86


Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final     column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  


Total Box Office Volume 

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $104 million total Friday-Sunday, up 17% from the same calendar weekend last year but down 10% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.          

Top 12 Films: Weekend #3


     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012  $104  Underworld Awakening $24, Red Tails $18, Ext Loud $9

2011  $ 89  No Strings Attached $20  
2010  $128  Legion $17.5, Tooth Fairy $14, Extraord. Measures $6
2009  $130  Underworld Rise Lycans $21, Inkheart $8, Rev. Road $5

2008  $118  Meet the Spartans $18.5, Rambo $18, Untraceable $11

2008-11
Avg   $116


Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.

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