The third weekend of 2012 is better than the same weekend last year, but it's a fairly mediocre weekend looking at a broader historical context. Underworld Awakening is leading the charge at #1, but Red Tails is not too far behind.
Red Tails is beating our prediction: opening with $6 million Friday on its way to almost $18 million for Friday-Sunday, ahead of the $14.5 million prediction. The action drama about the Tuskegee Airmen is headed for a preliminary $50 million domestic.
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close is failing to meet even modest expectations: a little over $3 million Friday and $9.4 million this weekend, below the $12.5 million forecast. The film with Oscar hopes and dreams (cast, director, subject matter right out of the awards playbook) has not wowed critics (an evenly split 50% positive review score at RottenTomatoes) and our forecast of $30 million total domestic does not indicate much mainstream potential.
In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
January 20-22, 2012 Pre-Wknd Wknd Showbuzz
(millions) Showbuzz Early FRI Domestic
Forecast Proj. Actual Final
Underworld Awakening (So)[$25.5] $23.9 $ 9.4 $ 59
Red Tails (Fox) [$14.5] $17.8 $ 6.0 $ 50
Contraband (Uni) [$12.0] $11.9 $ 3.7 $ 74
Extremely Loud & Inc (WB)[$12.5] $ 9.4 $ 3.2 $ 30
Haywire (Rel) [$ 8.0] $ 8.7 $ 2.9 $ 33
Beauty & Beast 3D (Dis) [$10.5] $ 7.5 $ 2.1 $ 53--
(millions) Showbuzz Early FRI Domestic
Forecast Proj. Actual Final
Underworld Awakening (So)[$25.5] $23.9 $ 9.4 $ 59
Red Tails (Fox) [$14.5] $17.8 $ 6.0 $ 50
Contraband (Uni) [$12.0] $11.9 $ 3.7 $ 74
Extremely Loud & Inc (WB)[$12.5] $ 9.4 $ 3.2 $ 30
Haywire (Rel) [$ 8.0] $ 8.7 $ 2.9 $ 33
Beauty & Beast 3D (Dis) [$10.5] $ 7.5 $ 2.1 $ 53--
Joyful Noise (WB) [$ 6.5] $ 5.9 $ 1.7 $ 34
Mission: Impossible 4 Par[$ 7.0] $ 4.9 $ 1.5 $214--
Sherlock Holmes 2 (WB) [$ 5.0] $ 4.1 $ 1.3 $187
War Horse (DW/Dis) [$ ---] $ 2.9 $ 0.9 $ 86
Mission: Impossible 4 Par[$ 7.0] $ 4.9 $ 1.5 $214--
Sherlock Holmes 2 (WB) [$ 5.0] $ 4.1 $ 1.3 $187
Iron Lady (Wein) [$ 4.5] $ 3.9 $ 1.0 $ 23
Girl Dragon Tattoo (Sony)[$ ---] $ 3.2 $ 1.0 $109 War Horse (DW/Dis) [$ ---] $ 2.9 $ 0.9 $ 86
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America. A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $104 million total Friday-Sunday, up 17% from the same calendar weekend last year but down 10% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #3
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $104 million total Friday-Sunday, up 17% from the same calendar weekend last year but down 10% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #3
Volume Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012 $104 Underworld Awakening $24, Red Tails $18, Ext Loud $9
2011 $ 89 No Strings Attached $20
2010 $128 Legion $17.5, Tooth Fairy $14, Extraord. Measures $6
2009 $130 Underworld Rise Lycans $21, Inkheart $8, Rev. Road $5
2008 $118 Meet the Spartans $18.5, Rambo $18, Untraceable $11
2008-11
Avg $116
Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.
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2012 $104 Underworld Awakening $24, Red Tails $18, Ext Loud $9
2011 $ 89 No Strings Attached $20
2010 $128 Legion $17.5, Tooth Fairy $14, Extraord. Measures $6
2009 $130 Underworld Rise Lycans $21, Inkheart $8, Rev. Road $5
2008 $118 Meet the Spartans $18.5, Rambo $18, Untraceable $11
2008-11
Avg $116
Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.
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