WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS February 10-12

The sixth weekend of the year should generate about $142 million for the top 12 films -- up 5% from last year's comparable weekend but down a similar percentage from a "normal" weekend this time of year.  The Vow and Safe House should open very solidly at #1 and #2.           


Opening at over 2,800 theaters, The Vow from Sony should average a very good $11,900 per theater (for $33.5 million Friday-Sunday).  [The average wide-release film the past two years has had an opening three-day weekend of $5,525 per theater.]  Critics on RottenTomatoes are slightly positive toward this romantic tear-jerker: 56% positive reviews.  The Vow is on track for a preliminary $95 million domestically.        

Opening in over 3,000 theaters, the action film Safe House from Universal (starring Denzel Washington and Ryan Reynolds) should average $9,300 per theater ($28 million Friday-Sunday).  Critics have been mixed: 50% positive reviews so far with a relatively small sample size.  Safe House is headed for a total domestic gross of $80 million.

In over 2,600 theaters, 20th Century Fox is re-releasing Star Wars: Episode 1 Phantom Menace in 3D, which should average $7,900 per theater ($20.5 million from Friday-Sunday).  Episode 1-3D is on track for a final tally of $57 million domestic.

Finally, Warner Brothers rolls out The Rock in Journey 2: The Mysterious Island.  A high number of theaters will screen this thing (3,400), but the average per theater should be a very mediocre $5,200 ($17.5 million this weekend).  Early reviews are running 56% positive, and Journey 2 should be on its way to $54 million domestic.   

                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
February 10-12                   Positive   Weekend   Total*

The Vow                 Sony  PG13  56%      $33.5     $ 95
Safe House               Uni  R     50%      $28.0     $ 80
Phantom Menace in 3D     Fox  PG    60%      $20.5     $ 57
Journey 2                 WB  PG    56%      $17.5     $ 54


Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.

* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.

Fairly typical declines for the returning films.   

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
February 10-12                  vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*



Chronicle                Fox      -49%      $11.5     $ 65
The Woman in Black       CBS      -53%      $10.0     $ 58
Big Miracle              Uni      -39%      $ 4.8     $ 28
The Grey                 Open     -45%      $ 5.2     $ 59
The Descendants          Fox      -36%      $ 2.9     $ 76
One for the Money        LG       -49%      $ 2.7     $ 27

Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $151 million total, ranking 14th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $135 million, and the same weekend in 2010 was $189 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like a decent $142 million, up 5% from this weekend last year but down 6% from an "average" comparable weekend over the past four years.          


This Weekend Last Two Years