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Showing posts with label tower heist. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tower heist. Show all posts

BIJOU BOXOFFICE: Early International Report


The Hollywood Reporter has some early numbers for the weekend's overseas boxoffice.  (Remember:  comparisons of international boxoffice receipts aren't necessarily apples-to-apples, as films follow different distribution patterns with respect to number and size of markets.)  As in the US, BREAKING DAWN PART 1 is in the lead, with a projected $40M from 73 territories (that pretty much covers the entire world), bringing its overseas total to $341M.  It seems to be on track to match New Moon's $416M international gross.


PUSS IN BOOTS, now in 26 territories, grossed $23M for an $89M overseas total.  HAPPY FEET TWO, in 40 territories, made $16M, bringing it to $34M overseas.  ARTHUR CHRISTMAS is now in 52 markets, and was only able to reach $11M for the weekend

THE ADVENTURES OF TINTIN, which doesn't open in the US for 3 more weeks, is already trailing off in its international run, with $10M in 54 markets giving it an international total of $221M.

It's worth noting that IN TIME, the Justin Timberlake/Amanda Seyfried vehicle that could only struggle to $36M in the US, has already grossed an additional $83M overseas, turning a flop into a picture that should at least break even.  Similarly, the much more expensive REAL STEEL, a disappointing $83M grosser in the US, has more than doubled that to $176M overseas.  However, TOWER HEIST, not unusually for US comedies, isn't hitting the mark overseas--with only a few territories still to open, it has just $43M overseas compared to $71M domestically.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis!
 

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THE BIJOU WEEKEND BOXOFFICE FOOTNOTES - November 13


IMMORTALS is claiming the same drop for Sunday as it had on Saturday, so that total may come down in actuals.  Even so, as long as the final amount is over $30M (which it certainly should be), that's a win for Relativity, no matter what the movie's budget actually was.  Immortals also launched widely overseas, including in such important territories as China, the UK, Germany, Italy, Japan and South Korea, and should hit a solid $36M there.  


JACK AND JILL's $26M opening is the lowest for any Adam Sandler comedy vehicle since The Wedding Singer in 1998.  Sony seems to be counting on a multiple like the one that got Bedtime Stories over $100M in 2008, but this picture will likely be long out of theatres before the lucrative Christmas week bonanza kicks in, and J&J will be one of Sandler's lowest-grossing pictures ever.  Is that meaningful, or did audiences just sense what a stinker this one was?  We won't know until Sandler's next movie opens (I Hate You, Dad in June).

If you want to know what "older-skewing" means, look no further than J. EDGAR:  two-thirds of its audience was over 50 years old.  Although an $11.5M opening is nothing to cheer about, that audience is generally in no rush to get to theatres (it takes a while to maneuver those walkers), and Warners is hoping for a slow build that lasts through the end of the year.  Last year's Hereafter dipped 47% in its second weekend, and that was the end of it, as it only reached $33M in total--J. Edgar will need to hold better than that.

PUSS IN BOOTS had another great hold in its final weekend before kiddie movie competition arrives.  TOWER HEIST's 45% drop seals its fate as a money-loser, unless overseas audiences take to it in a big way.  A VERY HAROLD & KUMAR 3D XMAS was, as expected, a one-weekend-and-out proposition, and despite the 3D ticket prices, it may not even get to the $38M grossed by the last picture in the series.  PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3 went over $100M, and has a shot at exceeding $108M and becoming the highest-grossing of the franchise.

In limited release, ANONYMOUS plummeted, and is unlikely even to reach $5M on a $35M budget.  MARGIN CALL expanded a bit more to 199 theaters, and should have an average of around $3K.  It could get to $5M in theatrical alone (not counting VOD), which would be a triumph for a picture that cost $3.5M and has spent very little on marketing; in addition, distributor Roadside Attractions has decided to make a well-deserved awards run for the film, so it's all good.  

MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE almost doubled its theatre count to 183 and saw little incremental income with a $2700 average.  LIKE CRAZY widened to 70 theatres at a promising $7500 average.  THE SKIN I LIVE IN increased to 91 theatres at a $3400 average.  TAKE SHELTER seems to have reached its limit (barring a strong showing by Michael Shannon in critics' awards) with a $1600 average at 82.  

The only notable indie opening was Lars Von Trier's MELANCHOLIA (also on VOD and HDMovie Net), which did a very nice $14K in each of 19 theatres.  Werner Herzog's death-penalty documentary INTO THE ABYSS had a $4200 average at 12.  These will likely be dwarfed next week by the arrival of THE DESCENDANTS, which will open in 5 theatres on Wednesday and then go to 27 on Friday.

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THE BIJOU: Early Weekend Boxoffice


Deadline has preliminary Saturday boxoffice numbers, and IMMORTALS seems to have followed the fanboy-genre pattern of extreme front-loading, with a 2d day reported as $10.6M, down 25% from Friday.  It should still win the weekend easily with a $30-32M total, but considering the much bigger movies about to flood the market, it's unlikely to reach $100M domestically.


JACK AND JILL had a modest Saturday bump of about 15%, and should reach $25-27M for its opening weekend, in line with its Friday result.  J. EDGAR had a significantly higher Saturday than Friday, which was to be expected given its older audience, and should also hit its $12M mark.

PUSS IN BOOTS's Friday was skewed high by the Veterans Day holiday, giving it less of a Saturday bump than would normally have been expected.  Nevertheless, it's headed for an excellent $27M, down only about 20% from last weekend.  TOWER HEIST held fairly well, down about 40% from last weekend, but that's not enough to make up for its slow start.  

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis...
 

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THE BIJOU: Friday Boxoffice Footnotes - November 12


Whether or not IMMORTALS holds together at the boxoffice after its opening few days, the impressive launch is good news for Relativity, which is trying to prove it can survive as a standalone distributor of Hollywood-level movies.  That doesn't necessarily mean Immortals will hit profit (its financial picture is complicated by various distributors handling it around the world, and uncertainty about what the budget actually was), but it does mean Relativity can claim a #1 opening for a picture with no huge stars to promote.  (Also happy:  Warner Bros, which can now say that its new Superman has already been the star of a hit.)


The JACK AND JILL opening looks to be in line with Adam Sandler's last family outing, 2008's Bedtime Stories, which started with a $27M weekend.  However, that picture opened on Christmas Day and had the benefit of the giant boxoffice week that follows, resulting in a total that was 4x its first 3 days.  J&J probably won't have a trajectory anything like that, which will likely make this--amazingly enough--his first "non-serious" starring vehicle not to hit $100M since Little Nicky in 2000.  In fairness, it will be far more successful than that flop, although it does bear the burden of a $80M budget (which means total worldwide costs of probably $200M+ once marketing is added in).

J. EDGAR was always intended as a longterm play that would stay in theatres throughout the holiday/awards season.  Its opening looks to be in line with Hereafter's $12M, but that picture got no awards traction and petered out at $33M (although it made more than double that overseas).  J. Edgar should open better than either Invictus or Changeling, but neither of those got to $40M either (even with a Best Actress nomination for Angelina Jolie on the latter).  The movie's fate will rest on word of mouth and how it fares in early critics' awards.

The great news for DreamWorks Animation is that PUSS IN BOOTS was actually up from last Friday (thanks in part to the Veterans Day holiday), meaning another solid hold for the weekend.  The less-great news is that an avalanche of kids movies is about to fall, with Happy Feet 2 arriving Friday, followed less than a week later by The Muppets, Hugo and Arthur Christmas, making this the movie's last wide-open weekend.

TOWER HEIST isn't going to have a terrible drop (that's the advantage of an older-skewing audience), but seems unlikely to get much past $75M, which won't pay the bills once marketing costs are figured in.  The overseas openings to date haven't been promising either.  

We're still a couple of weeks away from the explosion of indie movies that will arrive for awards season, but Lars Von Trier's MELANCHOLIA, riding mostly excellent reviews, should do around $15K in each of 18 theatres (it's also available on VOD and aired last week on the HDMovie network).  LIKE CRAZY expanded to 70 theatres and should have a pretty good $8500 average.

Although as noted the family holiday season kicks off next weekend with HAPPY FEET 2 (the original opened with $41M in 2006), next week is all about THE TWILIGHT SAGA:  BREAKING DAWN PART 1, which should easily own every multiplex in the country as of 12:01AM Thursday night.  New Moon, the last chapter of the saga to open on a Friday, holds the 4th highest opening weekend of all time with a staggering $143M in its first 3 days (including $26M from Thursday midnight shows), so that's the number to beat.    

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FULL WEEK BOX OFFICE ACTUALS and YEAR TO DATE October 31-November 6

Year to date box office is now back down to -4.0% versus the comparable period last year, similar to where the comparison was back around Labor Day.  As late as mid-April the box office total was -20% behind 2010, but by early June the comparison had dropped to -9% behind the 2010 pace.  In mid-August the comparison had dropped to -4%, where it bounced around through Labor Day.  Things looked good again by mid-October when the total box office was -3.2% versus 2010, until the comparison started to edge up again back toward -4%.  Unless a few holiday films really hit big, 2011 will probably finish -3.5 to -4.5% behind 2010.         


The Past Week: Total Box Office Volume

All films in wide release playing between October 31 and November 6 grossed a very weak $138 million, down 20% versus the same week in 2010 and down 10% from the average comparable week the past four years.  Year to date, all films are now down 4.0% from the same period last year (back to where the comparison was at Labor Day).    

All Films Oct 31-Nov 6
(millions)           4yr              vs      vs
             2010    Avg     2011    2010    Avg

Week #44     $172    $154    $138    -20%
    -10%

Year to Date $8622   $8162   $8278  
-4.0%   +1.4%



Updated Estimates of Final Grosses

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Grosses (the estimated North American gross when the film ends its run) are summarized below for films released the last six weeks.  Pay attention to the final domestic grosses, which are much more important than individual weekend grosses and especially weekend rankings. 


Puss in Boots $170 million (91 percentile)
Paranormal Activity 3 $113 million (82 percentile)
Real Steel $88 million (73 percentile) 
Tower Heist $74 million (69 percentile)
Footloose $55 million (58 percentile) 
A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas $43 million (51 percentile)
The Ides of March $42 million (49 percentile)
50/50 $36 million (43 percentile)
Courageous $35 million (42 percentile)
Dream House $21 million (23 percentile)

The Three Musketeers $19 million (19 percentile)
The Thing $15 million (13 percentile)
Johnny English Reborn $9 million (5 percentile)


Weekend Actuals vs Sunday's Studio Projections 


The weekend Studio Projection (Friday and Saturday actual numbers with estimates for Sunday's box office) for Tower Heist was overly optimistic to the tune of over one million dollars, while A Very Harold & Kumar was over-estimated by a more credible $200,000.  In contrast, Puss in Boots almost exactly nailed the estimate.    

      Weekend of                 Sunday    Monday   Showbuzz
      Oct 31-Nov 6               Studio    Weekend  Domestic
      (millions)                Estimate   Actual    Total

Puss in Boots          (DW/Par)   $33.0    $33.1     $170+
Tower Heist               (Uni)   $25.1    $24.0     $ 74
A Very Harold & Kumar      (WB)   $13.1    $12.9     $ 43
Paranormal Activity 3     (Par)   $ 8.5    $ 8.3     $113
In Time                   (Fox)   $ 7.7    $ 7.5     $ 39
Footloose                 (Par)   $ 4.6    $ 4.5     $ 55
Real Steel                (Dis)   $ 3.4    $ 3.4     $ 88
The Rum Diary         (FilmDis)   $ 3.0    $ 2.9     $ 17
Ides of March            (Sony)   $ 2.0    $ 1.9     $ 42 
Moneyball                (Sony)   $ 1.9    $ 1.8     $ 76 
The Three Musketeers   (Summit)   $ 1.7    $ 1.7     $ 19 


The International Box Office Numbers are available here.

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THE BIJOU: Weekend Boxoffice Footnotes - November 6


The tiny 3% drop in PUSS IN BOOTS' second weekend is truly remarkable, and could well lead to studios adopting DreamWorks' strategy in the future of opening an animated movie on Halloween weekend and then having a de facto 2d opening the following week.  (However, the picture is still running $13M below Megamind's 10 day total.)


Despite all the money Universal spent to turn TOWER HEIST into an event, audiences just weren't buying.  The initial overseas numbers of $9.5M in 23 territories aren't terribly promising either.  Interestingly, exit polling showed the audience for the picture skewing rather old; this could be a byproduct of Ben Stiller and Eddie Murphy's decisions to spend much of the past decade in family movies--they're now perceived as stars only by little kids (not the audience for this one) and their parents.  

A VERY HAROLD & KUMAR 3D XMAS, even with 3D ticket prices, couldn't match the opening of the series' second installment, and with an Adam Sandler movie opening next week, it's unlikely to get much beyond a $30M gross.  Warners would probably have been better off using it as counterprogramming during the real holiday season.

In the absence of compelling new openings, holdovers mostly did very well, although the only Fall opening (besides Puss) likely to get to $100M is PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3.

With the exception of ANONYMOUS (a dull $2500 in each of 513 theatres), most of the weekend's indie expansions were fairly successful.  MARGIN CALL, now in 178 theatres, should be close to $4500 in each, just slightly below its average last weekend.  MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE went to 98 theatres with about a $5K average, a notch above THE SKIN I LIVE IN, which is in 78 with about $4K in each.  TAKE SHELTER is in a holding pattern with an OK $2K or so in each of 91 theatres.  LIKE CRAZY is still in very limited distribution, but widened to 16 with about a $16K average.

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WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES November 4-6

So you love me, after all
Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), Puss in Boots almost matched its three-day opening in weekend two, bringing its 10-day total to $76 million and increasing the final domestic estimated total to a very good $170 million.  Tower Heist and A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas opened in the #2 and #3 positions but will be forgotten quickly.  Overall, the weekend will be down over 25% from the same weekend last year.  A lone charismatic cat can only do so much.

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the openers are headed for: Tower Heist ($77 million) and A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas ($44 million). 

Thanks to an amazing second weekend, Puss in Boots has been upgraded massively ($170 million), while In Time has been adjusted up ($40 million) and The Rum Diary is holding steady ($17 million). 
 
Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, Tower Heist will average $7,450 per theater (an above average but not noteworthy mark) at 3,367 theaters (for $25.1 million from Friday-Sunday).  A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas is opening with a below average $4,500 per theater at 2,875 theaters ($13.1 million).  Down an amazing low 3% in its second weekend, Puss in Boots will average $8,900 per theater at 3,693 locations for a stunning $33.0 million.    





November 4-6, 2011                  Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 

Puss in Boots          (DW/Par)     $33.0   - 3%      $170++
Tower Heist               (Uni)     $25.1             $ 77
A Very Harold & Kumar      (WB)     $13.1             $ 44
Paranormal Activity 3     (Par)     $ 8.5   -53%      $113-
In Time                   (Fox)     $ 7.7   -36%      $ 40+
Footloose                 (Par)     $ 4.6   -17%      $ 55
Real Steel             (DW/Dis)     $ 3.4   -29%      $ 88 
The Rum Diary         (FilmDis)     $ 3.0   -42%      $ 17
Ides of March            (Sony)     $ 2.0   -29%      $ 43 Moneyball                (Sony)     $ 1.9   -20%      $ 76
The Three Musketeers   (Summit)     $ 1.7   -52%      $ 19



Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  



Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a weak $106 million total, down 26% from the same calendar weekend last year (when Megamind opened to almost $50 million and two others opened to a combined $52 million).         

Top 12 Films: Weekend #44

     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011  $106  Tower Heist $25, A Very Harold & Kumar Chmas $13
2010  $143  Megamind $46, Due Date $33, For Colored Girls $19    
2009  $107  Christmas Carol $30 Men Stare Goats $13 4th Kind $12

2008  $128  Madagascar Escape Africa $63, Role Models $19
2007  $ 98  Fred Claus $18.5, Lions for Lambs $7
2007-10
Avg   $119 



Next Weekend
Opening next week are Jack & Jill from Sony, Immortals from Relativity and J. Edgar from Warner Brothers.  Those movies will be compared to Unstoppable ($22.7 million opening weekend), Skyline ($11.7 million) and Morning Glory ($9.2 million).


International numbers will be posted as soon as possible, and Monday we will have official numbers for the Friday-Sunday domestic grosses.

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THE BIJOU: Early Weekend Boxoffice


Deadline has preliminary weekend boxoffice numbers, and if they hold, PUSS IN BOOTS will have had a remarkable second weekend.  DreamWorks Animation is reportedly claiming a Saturday number doubling its Friday, which would mean a $34M weekend, virtually even with its opening.  We'll see if this claim survives till Sunday morning, let alone Monday actuals.


Elsewhere, TOWER HEIST should do $25-27M, while it seems that A VERY HAROLD & KUMAR 3D XMAS had an even softer Saturday than expected, and may only get to $13M for the weekend.  Holdovers look to be in line with Friday's numbers.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY for updated boxoffice and analysis all weekend...

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THE BIJOU: Friday Boxoffice Footnotes - November 5


TOWER HEIST hurts Universal on several levels.  It's a big-budget movie (with marketing costs included, the total is likely $200M) in a genre that doesn't necessarily travel well, and it was the studio's big year-end release.  And just to make things worse, next week its pair of Stiller and Murphy have to face off against Adam Sandler's Jack & Jill.  (Incidentally, the idea, floating online, that the movie's $25M opening shouldn't be considered soft because on this particular weekend of the year, other comedies not aimed at families haven't done better, is beyond inane--it seems to assume that moviegoers check the calendar before heading out to the multiplex, saying "Hey, I don't care what's opening--if it's the first weekend in November, I don't want to see any damn non-family comedy!  Everyone knows I only go to those in the second weekend in November or the third weekend in September!")   


PUSS IN BOOTS got the second weekend it needed, with a superb drop of only around 20%.  Not to be churlish, though, but while that's a far better hold than Megamind had last year (37% drop), it's still likely to make for a second weekend lower than Megamind's $29M, and a 10-day gross 20% lower than Megamind's $88M.  (Megamind wound up with $148M in the US.)  Next week Puss also has to contend with the Sandler movie, which is PG and being pitched to a family audience, and the following week a deluge of animated competition begins with Happy Feet 2.  

A VERY HAROLD & KUMAR 3D XMAS looks to be on par with the last picture in the series, Guantanamo Bay, which opened with $14.8M (although the Xmas number is boosted by 3D ticket prices).  It's doubtful that Warners expected much more, so presumably these economics work for them.

With little excitement generated by the new arrivals, holdovers again did very well:  other than the post-Halloween PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3, none of the Top 10 appear likely to decline more than 40% (not even THE RUM DIARY).  This developing pattern of strong holdover business may also suggest an aging of the theatrical movie audience, as older audiences have long been likely to wait a week or 2 before heading out to see films.

There weren't any major indie openings this weekend, but several expansions are worth noting.  ANONYMOUS (which isn't technically an "indie," but has the subject matter of one) doubled its theatre count to 513 but only increased its gross by 20%, meaning an anemic per-theatre number that may not reach $2500.  MARGIN CALL continued its quiet success, adding 38 theatres for a total of 178 and holding to a fine per-theatre number over $4K (it continues to be available as well on VOD)--the film now seems capable of reaching $5M or more at the boxoffice, which would make it a solid low-budget success.  MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE almost tripled its theatres to 98, and is finding an audience, with a per-theatre that should be at least $4500.  LIKE CRAZY took a smaller leap to 16 houses, and should be a very good $15K in each.

Next weekend is all Adam Sandler, in fact 2 of him, since as everyone now knows, he plays both himself and his twin sister in JACK & JILL. His last non-summer opening was $30M for Just Go With It, so that will presumably be a target number for the picture.  Sandler's competition will be limited to the R-rated 300 rip-off IMMORTALS and Clint Eastwood's very serious J. EDGAR, also an R. 

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THE BIJOU: Early Friday Boxoffice


Friday's preliminary boxoffice, according to the Hollywood Reporter, has the looks of another soft weekend for the major studios.  TOWER HEIST appears to be underperforming, and with a reported $9.5M Friday, may only reach $27M for the weekend.  Since Universal is mostly sitting out the holiday movie season, this would be a disappointing end to their release year.  Meanwhile, PUSS IN BOOTS is rebounding very well from a soft opening, and may only drop 20-25% for the weekend, setting up a much closer than expected battle for 1st place.


The weekend's other new opening, A VERY HAROLD & KUMAR 3D XMAS, is languishing even more than expected, perhaps $14-15M for the weekend.  

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis!

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THE BIJOU REVIEW: "Tower Heist"





TOWER HEIST:  Watch It At Home - Hardly Luxury-Class

There may never have been a director more proud of being a hack than Brett Ratner.  In a recent NY Times profile, Ratner boasts (when he's not going on about his friendship with Roman Polanski, because yeah, there's a social relationship you'd want to broadcast) that "it's a much harder skill to make movies for millions of people, for mainstream audiences, than it is a pretentious art film."  So Rush Hour 3 required a higher degree of effort than, say, The Seventh Seal or Days of Heaven.  Thanks, Brett!


Ratner obviously enjoys playing Populist, and in a more general (and less arrogant) sense, there's no question that making solid entertainment is a lot harder than it looks--it's one of the reasons Steven Spielberg spent years earning millions with little awards recognition.  Even below the Spielberg level, there's a worthy, estimable tradition of journeymen directors like Sydney Pollack, Norman Jewison and Rob Reiner who have dependably moved from genre to genre for years, reliably turning out enjoyable, well-crafted work.

So how is a hack different from a journeyman?  It's not an absence of filmmaking ability--several of Ratner's pictures like The Family Man and Red Dragon are perfectly well executed entertainments, and his new TOWER HEIST (and yes, we'll get to that) delivers a reasonable amount of fun.  It's the soullessness that makes the difference--the sense you have, watching his movies, that on Ratner's sets, no one from the director on down feels any compulsion to do more than perform their bare minimums and collect their paychecks.  Ratner directs movies like factory-workers put together microwavable dinners--and the result is much the same, neither entirely tasteless nor particularly delicious.

Tower Heist is Ratner's second entry in the light-comedy robbery genre, the first being 2004's After the Sunset (honestly, did you even remember that one existed?).  The premise this time is more promising:  when the employees of a luxury NY apartment building discover that the Bernie Madoff-type billionaire tenant to whom they entrusted their investments (Alan Alda) has, well, acted like Bernie Madoff, and that even worse, he's made a deal with the feds that will let him get away with it, a group of them decide to rob his impossible-to-crack apartment and take his ill-gotten gains.  The heroes are led by Ben Stiller as the downtrodden building manager, and come to include Casey Affleck, Michael Pena, Gabourey Siddibe, as well as impoverished tenant Matthew Broderick.  The wild card in the group is a professional small-time thief (Eddie Murphy) enlisted by Stiller to teach the amateurs how to stage the heist.  Meanwhile FBI agent Tea Leoni is in charge of guarding Alda when she's not flirting with Stiller.

The obvious modern model for this kind of lighthearted, non-violent caper movie is Steven Soderbergh's remake of Ocean's 11, and not to belabor the point, but here again we can see the difference between hack and non-hack.  Soderbergh brought wit and grace to his Ocean's movie; Ratner has nothing to offer but efficiency.  The script by Jeff Nathanson and Ted Griffin (the latter was a writer of the Ocean's script) goes for broad laughs and sight gags--the robbery is carried out during the Macy's Thanksgiving Parade, and a key sequence involves a car hanging outside a high-story window.  It wouldn't pay to think about any of the storyline for very long.  Still, there's some sharp dialogue and Ratner keeps things moving.

Although Stiller is dull in the lead--all the paycheck movies he's done over the past decade seem to have disengaged parts of his brain; you almost expect him to start singing "Daisy, Daisy" like the lobotomized  HAL in 2001--Eddie Murphy is better than he's been in years.  It's anyone's guess why this is the role that engaged him after a run of lazy crap that makes Stiller's look like Beckett and Godard, but Murphy is genuinely funny, with the kind of rediscovered zing and energy that made him a superstar in the first place.  Much of the rest of the cast is wasted, but Sidibe's offbeat comic rhythm plays like gangbusters in her scenes with Murphy, and Leoni has a few moments that remind us she's the single most wasted comic leading lady of her generation. 

Brett Ratner's goal in life is only to make Big Mac movies, all empty calories and disposable packaging, yet satisfying enough while you're cramming them into your mouth.  Tower Heist, as his pictures go, is a tolerably Happy Meal.

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WEEKEND BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS November 4-6

$59.99 for home VOD -- Genius!
Box office normally starts to pick up when the calendar turns to November, moving from $90-100 million per weekend through most of October to $120 million or more per weekend in early November (building toward $185 million or more for the Friday-Sunday of Thanksgiving weekend).  Last year's first weekend of November featured brilliant counter-scheduling of three films serving very different audiences (an animated family movie, Megamind, an adult comedy, Due Date, and a female-skewing For Colored Girls).  This year two comedies open against each other, and this weekend should be down almost 30% from the same weekend last year.        

Opening at more than 3,200 theaters in North America by Universal, Tower Heist should average a solid $9,300 per theater (for $29.5 million for Friday-Sunday).  (All films the last two years have averaged $5,525 per theater in their opening weekend.)  Much to Universal Distribution's horror, the theater count for the latest from Brett Ratner would have been much lower had Comcast gone through with the limited video-on-demand test of this movie while it was still in theaters -- and for the insane price of $59.99.  In the end, cooler heads prevailed.  Comcast scrapped the experiment, and theater owners ended talk of a boycott.  So the opening should be a normal one, and Tower Heist has received surprisingly favorable reviews, with 78% positive at RottenTomatoes.  The Ben Stiller-Eddie Murphy comedy should be on track for around $92 million in North America when it leaves theaters.    

At about 2,800 theaters, A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas from Warner Brothers should average a mediocre $5,900 per theater (for $16.5 million this weekend).  The R-rated comedy has not been released for reviews.  This movie is probably headed for around $43 million domestically.  The first in the saga, Harold & Kumar Go to White Castle, opened with $5.5 million the weekend of 7.30.2004 (74% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes), ending with $18.3 million domestically and $5.7 million overseas.  Next, Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay opened with $14.9 million the weekend of 4.25.2008 (53% positive reviews), finishing with $38.1 million domestically and $5.4 million overseas.   


                                               (millions)
New Films                        Critics    Opening  Domestic
November 4-6                     Positive   Weekend   Total*

Tower Heist             Uni  PG13  78%      $29.5     $ 92
A Very Harold & Kumar    WB  R     n/a      $16.5     $ 43

  Christmas      

Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.


The second weekend of Puss in Boots should be down a decent 30%, reflecting good word of mouth and catch-up business in the Northeast, where a very early snowstorm disrupted movie business -- and the delivery of electricity -- last weekend and into this week.   

                                              (millions)
Major Returning Films            Change     This    Domestic
November 4-6                    vs wknd 1  Weekend   Total*

Puss in Boots       DW/Par        -30%      $24.0     $128
Paranormal Activity 3  Par        -55%      $ 8.5     $117

In Time                Fox        -44%      $ 7.0     $ 28 
Footloose              Par        -34%      $ 3.7     $ 55
Real Steel            Sony        -32%      $ 3.5     $ 87
The Rum Diary      FilmDis        -41%      $ 3.0     $ 17
Ides of March       DW/DIS        -27%      $ 2.0     $ 42 
The Three Musketeers  Summ        -46%      $ 1.9     $ 20



Box Office Volume

For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $119 million total, ranking 27th of 52 weeks.  Last year this weekend's total was $143 million (with three movies opening to a collective $98 million by serving different audiences and genre fans), and the same weekend in 2009 was $107 million.  This Friday-Sunday is looking like $103 million, down a withering 28% from this weekend last year and down 14% from the four-year average for this weekend.       


This Weekend Last Two Years



11/5/10

 Megamind PAR/ DW PG   
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $51  Actual: $46
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $163  Actual: $148
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $173

 Due Date WB R Robert Downey Jr Zach Galifianakis 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $33  Actual: $33
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $94  Actual: $100
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $111

 For Colored Girls LG R Kimberly Elise Janet Jackson 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $21  Actual: $19
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $42  Actual: $38
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $0

11/6/09

 A Christmas Carol DIS PG Jim Carrey  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $43  Actual: $30
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $122  Actual: $138
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $187

 The Fourth Kind UNI PG13 Milla Jovovich  
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $11  Actual: $12
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $26  Actual: $25
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $21

 The Men Who Stare at Goats OVERTURE R George Clooney Jeff Bridges 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $11  Actual: $13
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $38  Actual: $32
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $37

 The Box WB PG13 Cameron Diaz James Marsden 
 Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $8  Actual: $8
 Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $20  Actual: $15
 International -- Estimate: n/a  Actual: $17



Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform.  Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up as a whole (based on Friday's early numbers), on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.

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