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Showing posts with label jack and jill. Show all posts
Showing posts with label jack and jill. Show all posts

SHOWBUZZDAILY 2011 IN REVIEW: The Year's Worst Movies

5:23 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,



The problem with 2011 on screen was more the pervasive mediocrity than an overload of terrible movies, but that doesn't mean there weren't some awful films to be found--and, if possible, avoided.  Here are 10 or so:

10.  ONE DAY:  Admittedly, a cheat:  One Day wasn’t a complete disaster--it was far less painful to sit through than I Don't Know How She Does It, among others.  But it deserves mention as an object lesson in how a movie can seem to do everything right--a fine novel by Nicholls as source material, script by the novelist himself, direction by Lone Scherfig coming off An Education, a cast headed by Anne Hathaway, Jim Sturgess, and Patricia Clarkson—and yet end up utterly flat and unmoving.


9.  UNCLE BOONMEE WHO CAN RECALL HIS PAST LIVES:  Apichatpong Weerasethankul's Thai fantasy was the most willfully impenetrable and pretentious art film of the year--naturally, it won the Grand Prize at Cannes and abject acclaim from worshipers of the incomprehensible for incomprehensibility's sake like the NY Times. 

8.  THE ART OF GETTING BY:  Gavin Wiesen's dreadful indie (picked up at Sundance by Fox Searchlight, to no discernible audience interest), may actually have been the nine millionth film festival movie about a quirky, oversensitive teen, or just felt like it.  Agonizingly twee, unfunny and charmless.

7. HALL PASS:  Remember the Farrelly brothers?  Remember There's Something About Mary?  They continued down their downward path with this witless, visually ugly sit-com about attempted adultery that dragged Owen Wilson, Jason Sudeikis, Christina Applegate and Jenna Fischer down with it.  (Coming in 2012:  The Three Stooges.)

6.  DON'T BE AFRAID OF THE DARK:  Producer/co-writer Guillermo del Toro's name was all over the marketing for this flick, so even though technically Troy Nixey gets blame for the dull, virtually scare-less direction (the one and only boo! moment was used in every single trailer and promo), del Toro was the man in charge.  The combination of this and #2 below suggests that Katie Holmes may be the Hollywood actress most in need of a new agent.

5. THE NICOLAS CAGE SHOW:  A one-man extravaganza of dreadfulness, he gave us Season of the Witch, Drive Angry and the essentially direct-to-video Trespass, all in one calendar year.      


4.  THE DILEMMA:  What was Ron Howard thinking?  A witless script--yet again, about the hilarity of adultery--credited to Allan Loeb couldn’t even have looked good on the page, and wasted not just Howard’s talents, but a cast that included Vince Vaughn, Kevin James, Jennifer Connelly, Winona Ryder and Channing Tatum.  


3.  ANY SUPERHERO MOVIE WITH THE COLOR GREEN IN THE TITLE:  Yes, another cheat, but how can one choose between Green Lantern and The Green Hornet, two of the genre’s all-time worst?  Lantern (combined with The Change-Up, which could also easily have made this list) turned what was supposed to be the year of Ryan Reynolds into one he’ll have to hope people forget; Hornet, co-written by as well as starring Seth Rogen (and directed by Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind’s Michel Gondry!) was a flat-out embarrassment.


2.  JACK & JILL:  Even by the very, very low standards of Adam Sandler vehicles, this drag “comedy” was an unfunny, endlessly stupid piece of crud.  


1.  SUCKER PUNCH:  But nothing in 2011 was worse than Sucker Punch, Zach Snyder’s putrescent exercise in PG-13 fanboy porn that was so senseless, ugly and incompetent in every way that I’m surprised it hasn’t been “rediscovered” yet as an unappreciated masterpiece.  (If only it were in subtitled Thai!)  Good luck to Warner Bros, which now has Snyder behind the camera on its giant Superman reboot…

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THE BIJOU: Early Wednesday Boxoffice

12:31 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , ,


Deadline has preliminary boxoffice figures for Wednesday, and there doesn't seem to be great news for anyone.  BREAKING DAWN PART 1 appears to be the easy winner for the day and probably for Thanksgiving weekend, but its $12.5M for Wednesday, if it holds, would be more than 10% off the parallel date for 2009's New Moon, and suggests that while unquestionably a giant hit, BD1 could be the lowest domestic grosser of the series since the original Twilight.


THE MUPPETS seems to be way ahead of the other openings of the day, with $7.5M (a $2100 per-theatre average) that could bring it to $40-45M for the holiday weekend.  ARTHUR CHRISTMAS seems to be around $2.8M for Wednesday ($850 average), on its way to only $15-20M by Monday.  HUGO, in a smaller 1200 theatre run, is well behind with $1.6M for the day ($1250 average) and $8-10M for the long weekend.  

THE DESCENDANTS expanded to 390 theatres for the holiday, and is aiming at $1M for the day, a $2500 average that could give it a $5-8M weekend.  

Holdovers were none too impressive either, with HAPPY FEET TWO heading for an additional $15-20M for the holiday, and IMMORTALS and JACK AND JILL each looking at $10-12M over the 5 day holiday.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis!

 

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BIJOU BOXOFFICE: WEEKEND STUDIO SCORECARD

1:34 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , ,



BREAKING DAWN PART 1:  Although BD1 had greater declines on Friday (as opposed to Thursday midnight) and Saturday than New Moon did in 2009, Summit's weekend estimate assumes exactly the same 34% drop for Sunday.  So it's possible their $139.5M figure could come down a bit in the actuals tomorrow (which could move the film behind Pirates of the Caribbean 2's $138.6 and make it the 6th rather than 5th biggest opener ever).  BD2 also launched worldwide and made $144M overseas--that's huge of course, but while New Moon's international opening weekend was "only" $132.5M, that was in just 25 territories rather than BD1's 54.


HAPPY FEET TWO:  $22M is just this side of wretched, and even that number assumes a very low 28% drop for Sunday.

THE DESCENDANTS:  Off to a good start with a very strong $42K per theatre average, but the test will come when it expands semi-widely on Wednesday.

HOLDOVERS:  Despite its big opening, IMMORTALS won't do much more than break even in the US (and that's accepting Relativity's claim that after foreign presales it only carried $25M of the production cost), and like many an action movie before it, will have to do big business overseas to hit profit.  JACK AND JILL is likely to be the first Adam Sandler comedy vehicle to actually lose money in a very long time.  J. EDGAR's 47% drop is quite bad for a picture that's hoping to linger in theatres and play a part in the Oscar race, and it's going to need some support from the early awards at the end of this month if it's to have any chance.  The smartest scheduling decision of the entire year may have been DreamWorks Animation's one-week move of PUSS IN BOOTS, which has turned out to be the difference between a moderate success (probably around the level of Megamind's $148M) and what would have been a serious disappointment.  It's looking like PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3 won't manage to outgross the original's $108M to become the franchise's highest grosser, but Paramount will be quite fine with $105M or so, thanks very much.  

INDIES:  LIKE CRAZY expanded nicely to 108 theatres with what should be about a $5K average in each.  MARGIN CALL continues to hold extremely well, with a $2500 average at 173, and now seems like it should get to $5M in theatrical revenues alone (not counting the simultaneous VOD release).  THE SKIN I LIVE IN expanded to 111 theatres and had an OK $2500 average.  MELANCHOLIA expanded to 56 theatres with a pretty good $5500 average.   MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE isn't finding much traction with a $2100 average in 180.  TAKE SHELTER will need some awards support for Michael Shannon, as it fell to a $1400 average in 74.  In smaller openings, ANOTHER HAPPY DAY, boosted by Q&As with Ellen Barkin (a producer as well as star), made it to an average of about $4500 in 2 theatres, which was a lot better than TYRANNOSAUR's $1500 average in 5.

Next week:  an odd mix of big-budget family movies and some of the year's most serious Oscar hopefuls.

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BIJOU BOXOFFICE: FRIDAY STUDIO SCORECARD

1:05 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,



BREAKING DAWN PART 1:  Christmas comes but once a year, and for Summit that day is the 24 hours after a Twilight movie opens.  (A little credit to the studio, too, for not fudging the numbers, which would have been easy enough to do since they're so close, in order to claim a franchise record for Friday.)  The $72M Breaking Dawn earned was a bit more front-loaded from Thursday midnight screenings than New Moon's $72.7M had been in 2009 (42% compared to 36%), and the same may well apply to Friday's chunk of the 3-day weekend total.  New Moon's Friday was just about 51% of its $142.8M weekend, so Breaking Dawn 1 might end up around $135M, which would make it the 5th or 6th highest opening weekend ever (Pirates of the Caribbean 2 is at $135.8M).


HAPPY FEET 2:  The original Happy Feet, somewhat unusually these days for an animated film, made more in the US than overseas ($198M vs $187M).  If that holds for the sequel, it'll be bad news for Warners, since Happy 2 is headed for an opening only half as big as its predecessor's.  Even worse, while the Thanksgiving weekend competition in 2006 only featured one weak family movie (Deck the Halls), this year Happy 2 has a tidal wave heading straight for it, with The Muppets, Arthur Christmas and Hugo all arriving on Wednesday.  That may well mean a less healthy multiple, and the possibility that the film could very unhappily fail to reach $100M in the US.

THE DESCENDANTS:  A strong but not overwhelming opening for  a presumed Oscar front-runner, with what should be around a $40K average in each of 26 theatres.  That's considerably less than Black Swan's $80K average at 18 last year, although it compares well with The King's Speech's $31K at 19.  But we'll know more about the boxoffice prospects of Descendants quickly, because it's expanding into 500+ theatres on Wednesday.

Holdovers:  Not a pretty picture.  IMMORTALS will dive by 60%, which is no surprise.  But awful word of mouth has quickly caught up with JACK AND JILL, which will drop from its weak opening by at least 50%.  It's unlikely to get past $75M, which will make it Adam Sandler's lowest-grossing comedy vehicle since Little Nicky in 2000 (which made less but also cost a lot less than J&J's $80M budget).  Audiences were similarly unimpressed with J. EDGAR, which is looking at a 50% drop for the weekend, worse than Hereafter had last year.  The picture seems unlikely to make more than $30-35M in total, meaning some respectful nominations but no real Oscar momentum. PUSS IN BOOTS took a big hit for the first time in its run, and should drop 50% this weekend.

Indies:  No big titles wanted to get in the way of The Descendants this weekend.  But LIKE CRAZY expanded to 108 theatres and should do a nice $5K in each.  And sadly, the excellent but difficult to watch TYRANNOSAUR (which is not about dinosaurs) failed to get the reviews it desperately needed, especially in the NY Times, and may not even manage $2K in each of its 5 theatres.

Next Weekend:  As noted above, an avalanche of family entertainment invades for the holiday, with The Muppets, Arthur Christmas and Hugo fighting it out.  Also, some major award hopefuls will make their appearances:  David Cronenberg's A DANGEROUS METHOD and Michelle Williams' awards express MY WEEK WITH MARILYN arrive on Wednesday (the latter in a semi-wide run of a few hundred theatres), while THE ARTIST opens on Friday. 

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THE BIJOU: Early Friday Boxoffice

2:48 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , ,


Deadline has preliminary numbers for Friday, and they suggest BREAKING DAWN PART 1 will continue to narrowly edge out the opening weekend of New Moon in 2009, with a $73.5M Friday (compared to $72.7M for New Moon).  If the number holds, and if Breaking Dawn 1 doesn't turn out to be more front-loaded than New Moon, that movie's pattern would lead to a $144M weekend, which would be the biggest 3-day opening of the franchise (Eclipse opened over the 5-day 4th of July weekend last year) and the 4th biggest opening weekend ever, behind only the final Harry Potter, The Dark Knight, and Spider-Man 3.  


The news was far less good for HAPPY FEET 2, which is looking at a very blah $6M Friday, half what the original Happy Feet did in 2006.  If Feet 2 follows the same trajectory as the original, that could mean a bleak $20-22M weekend--with giant competition from no less than 3 new family films arriving in the market on Wednesday.  

THE DESCENDANTS seems to be off to a strong start with $300K in only 29 theatres, heading for a $1M+ weekend.  That would be a very good $35K per-theatre average, although it pales next to the $80K per-theatre number Fox Searchlight pulled last year in 18 theatres with its Black Swan opening.

Holdovers are looking overwhelmed by the Twilight franchise juggernaut.  IMMORTALS, not surprisingly, is facing a 60% plunge to a $12M second weekend, and JACK AND JILL isn't much better, falling at least 50% to $11-12M, which guarantees it will be Adam Sandler's biggest franchise flop in a decade.  A little more surprisingly, J. EDGAR, despite its older audience, is heading for a $6M 2d weekend, down a heavy 45% that's worse than Hereafter's second weekend drop.  Boxoffice like that won't help it stay alive in the Oscar race.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis...
 

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THE BIJOU WEEKEND BOXOFFICE FOOTNOTES - November 13

1:30 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,


IMMORTALS is claiming the same drop for Sunday as it had on Saturday, so that total may come down in actuals.  Even so, as long as the final amount is over $30M (which it certainly should be), that's a win for Relativity, no matter what the movie's budget actually was.  Immortals also launched widely overseas, including in such important territories as China, the UK, Germany, Italy, Japan and South Korea, and should hit a solid $36M there.  


JACK AND JILL's $26M opening is the lowest for any Adam Sandler comedy vehicle since The Wedding Singer in 1998.  Sony seems to be counting on a multiple like the one that got Bedtime Stories over $100M in 2008, but this picture will likely be long out of theatres before the lucrative Christmas week bonanza kicks in, and J&J will be one of Sandler's lowest-grossing pictures ever.  Is that meaningful, or did audiences just sense what a stinker this one was?  We won't know until Sandler's next movie opens (I Hate You, Dad in June).

If you want to know what "older-skewing" means, look no further than J. EDGAR:  two-thirds of its audience was over 50 years old.  Although an $11.5M opening is nothing to cheer about, that audience is generally in no rush to get to theatres (it takes a while to maneuver those walkers), and Warners is hoping for a slow build that lasts through the end of the year.  Last year's Hereafter dipped 47% in its second weekend, and that was the end of it, as it only reached $33M in total--J. Edgar will need to hold better than that.

PUSS IN BOOTS had another great hold in its final weekend before kiddie movie competition arrives.  TOWER HEIST's 45% drop seals its fate as a money-loser, unless overseas audiences take to it in a big way.  A VERY HAROLD & KUMAR 3D XMAS was, as expected, a one-weekend-and-out proposition, and despite the 3D ticket prices, it may not even get to the $38M grossed by the last picture in the series.  PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 3 went over $100M, and has a shot at exceeding $108M and becoming the highest-grossing of the franchise.

In limited release, ANONYMOUS plummeted, and is unlikely even to reach $5M on a $35M budget.  MARGIN CALL expanded a bit more to 199 theaters, and should have an average of around $3K.  It could get to $5M in theatrical alone (not counting VOD), which would be a triumph for a picture that cost $3.5M and has spent very little on marketing; in addition, distributor Roadside Attractions has decided to make a well-deserved awards run for the film, so it's all good.  

MARTHA MARCY MAY MARLENE almost doubled its theatre count to 183 and saw little incremental income with a $2700 average.  LIKE CRAZY widened to 70 theatres at a promising $7500 average.  THE SKIN I LIVE IN increased to 91 theatres at a $3400 average.  TAKE SHELTER seems to have reached its limit (barring a strong showing by Michael Shannon in critics' awards) with a $1600 average at 82.  

The only notable indie opening was Lars Von Trier's MELANCHOLIA (also on VOD and HDMovie Net), which did a very nice $14K in each of 19 theatres.  Werner Herzog's death-penalty documentary INTO THE ABYSS had a $4200 average at 12.  These will likely be dwarfed next week by the arrival of THE DESCENDANTS, which will open in 5 theatres on Wednesday and then go to 27 on Friday.

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WEEKEND STUDIO ESTIMATES November 11-13

9:44 AM | Labels: , , , , , ,

Based on Friday and Saturday box office (and estimated Sunday numbers), Immortals ($32 million) will beat Jack and Jill ($26 million).  Keep in mind Immortals is playing on many fewer theaters than the Adam Sandler comedy and has a much better per theater number.  J. Edgar is playing at even fewer theaters and has the worst per theater tally of the three openers, surprisingly.  The weekend is looking like a $130 million total for the top 12 films, up 16% from the same weekend last year.

The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Final estimates now show that the openers are headed for: Immortals ($90 million), Jack and Jill ($78 million) and J. Edgar ($33 million).

Tower Heist is holding steady in its second weekend ($78 million) and A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas has been downgraded a touch ($39 million). 

Thanks to another great weekend (its third), Puss in Boots has been upgraded again ($179 million), while In Time is holding steady ($40 million). 
 
Based on Friday and Saturday actual numbers and studio estimates for Sunday, Immortals will average $10,300 per theater (a well above average mark) at 3,112 theaters (for $32.0 million from Friday-Sunday).  Jack and Jill is opening with an above average $7,600 per theater at 3,438 theaters ($26.0 million).  J. Edgar is opening with a mediocre $6,000 per theater at 1,910 theaters ($11.5 million).    





November 11-13, 2011                Wknd     vs     Showbuzz
(millions)                         Studio   Last    Domestic
                                    Proj.   Wknd     Final* 
Immortals                 (Rel)     $32.0             $ 90
Jack and Jill            (Sony)     $26.0             $ 78
Puss in Boots          (DW/Par)     $25.5   -23%      $179+
Tower Heist               (Uni)     $13.2   -45%      $ 78
J. Edgar                   (WB)     $11.5             $ 33
A Very Harold & Kumar      (WB)     $ 5.9   -54%      $ 39
In Time                   (Fox)     $ 4.2   -45%      $ 40
Paranormal Activity 3     (Par)     $ 3.6   -57%      $106-
Footloose                 (Par)     $ 2.7   -39%      $ 56 
Real Steel             (DW/Dis)     $ 2.0   -42%      $ 88 


Note: The table above summarizes the weekend as of Sunday.  The first column (on which the table is sorted) displays the "studio projection" for each film, based on the Friday and Saturday actual numbers (and a studio-supplied estimate of Sunday).  The second column is the percent decline from the prior weekend.  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total Gross for the film's complete run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.  



Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a weak $130 million total, up 16% from the same calendar weekend last year (when Unstoppable opened to $23 million and two others opened to a combined $21 million).         

Top 12 Films: Weekend #45
     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011  $135  Immortals $32, Jack and Jill $26, J. Edgar $11
2010  $112  Unstoppable $23, Skyline $12, Morning Glory $9    
2009  $129  2012 $65, Pirate Radio $3
2008  $138  Quantum of Solace $68
2007  $ 93  Beowulf $28, Mr Magorium's Wonder Emporium $10
2007-10
Avg   $118 



Next Weekend
Opening next week are Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn (Part One) from Summit, Happy Feet Two from Warner Brothers and The Descendants from Fox Searchlight.  Those movies will be compared to Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 ($125 million opening weekend) and The Next Three Days ($6.5 million).
International numbers will be posted as soon as possible, and Monday we will have official numbers for the Friday-Sunday domestic grosses.

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THE BIJOU: Early Weekend Boxoffice

12:43 AM | Labels: , , , , , ,


Deadline has preliminary Saturday boxoffice numbers, and IMMORTALS seems to have followed the fanboy-genre pattern of extreme front-loading, with a 2d day reported as $10.6M, down 25% from Friday.  It should still win the weekend easily with a $30-32M total, but considering the much bigger movies about to flood the market, it's unlikely to reach $100M domestically.


JACK AND JILL had a modest Saturday bump of about 15%, and should reach $25-27M for its opening weekend, in line with its Friday result.  J. EDGAR had a significantly higher Saturday than Friday, which was to be expected given its older audience, and should also hit its $12M mark.

PUSS IN BOOTS's Friday was skewed high by the Veterans Day holiday, giving it less of a Saturday bump than would normally have been expected.  Nevertheless, it's headed for an excellent $27M, down only about 20% from last weekend.  TOWER HEIST held fairly well, down about 40% from last weekend, but that's not enough to make up for its slow start.  

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis...
 

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THE BIJOU: Friday Boxoffice Footnotes - November 12

1:36 PM | Labels: , , , , , , , , ,


Whether or not IMMORTALS holds together at the boxoffice after its opening few days, the impressive launch is good news for Relativity, which is trying to prove it can survive as a standalone distributor of Hollywood-level movies.  That doesn't necessarily mean Immortals will hit profit (its financial picture is complicated by various distributors handling it around the world, and uncertainty about what the budget actually was), but it does mean Relativity can claim a #1 opening for a picture with no huge stars to promote.  (Also happy:  Warner Bros, which can now say that its new Superman has already been the star of a hit.)


The JACK AND JILL opening looks to be in line with Adam Sandler's last family outing, 2008's Bedtime Stories, which started with a $27M weekend.  However, that picture opened on Christmas Day and had the benefit of the giant boxoffice week that follows, resulting in a total that was 4x its first 3 days.  J&J probably won't have a trajectory anything like that, which will likely make this--amazingly enough--his first "non-serious" starring vehicle not to hit $100M since Little Nicky in 2000.  In fairness, it will be far more successful than that flop, although it does bear the burden of a $80M budget (which means total worldwide costs of probably $200M+ once marketing is added in).

J. EDGAR was always intended as a longterm play that would stay in theatres throughout the holiday/awards season.  Its opening looks to be in line with Hereafter's $12M, but that picture got no awards traction and petered out at $33M (although it made more than double that overseas).  J. Edgar should open better than either Invictus or Changeling, but neither of those got to $40M either (even with a Best Actress nomination for Angelina Jolie on the latter).  The movie's fate will rest on word of mouth and how it fares in early critics' awards.

The great news for DreamWorks Animation is that PUSS IN BOOTS was actually up from last Friday (thanks in part to the Veterans Day holiday), meaning another solid hold for the weekend.  The less-great news is that an avalanche of kids movies is about to fall, with Happy Feet 2 arriving Friday, followed less than a week later by The Muppets, Hugo and Arthur Christmas, making this the movie's last wide-open weekend.

TOWER HEIST isn't going to have a terrible drop (that's the advantage of an older-skewing audience), but seems unlikely to get much past $75M, which won't pay the bills once marketing costs are figured in.  The overseas openings to date haven't been promising either.  

We're still a couple of weeks away from the explosion of indie movies that will arrive for awards season, but Lars Von Trier's MELANCHOLIA, riding mostly excellent reviews, should do around $15K in each of 18 theatres (it's also available on VOD and aired last week on the HDMovie network).  LIKE CRAZY expanded to 70 theatres and should have a pretty good $8500 average.

Although as noted the family holiday season kicks off next weekend with HAPPY FEET 2 (the original opened with $41M in 2006), next week is all about THE TWILIGHT SAGA:  BREAKING DAWN PART 1, which should easily own every multiplex in the country as of 12:01AM Thursday night.  New Moon, the last chapter of the saga to open on a Friday, holds the 4th highest opening weekend of all time with a staggering $143M in its first 3 days (including $26M from Thursday midnight shows), so that's the number to beat.    

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FRIDAY NOVEMBER 11 BOX OFFICE RESULTS

9:13 AM | Labels: , , , , , , , ,

THERE IS A GOD!  Adam Sandler's latest movie in which he plays a brother and a sister will not be the #1 movie of the weekend.  While not a flop, it failed to open to the $30-35 million his fans usually pony up.  Best of all, the film will not come close to the $100 million usually generated by his work in North America.  An end to an era?  Not at all.  But at least a significant portion of the audience is coming to their senses.  Immortals was the big surprise, on track to take the weekend crown by a mile, and Puss in Boots rolls on, down only 20% or so again this weekend.  Total volume for the weekend is looking like $135 million, up 21% from the same weekend last year and up 15% from the weekend's average the last four years.


Immortals blew past its forecast ($15.0 million Friday for an expected $36 million this weekend versus a forecast of $22.5 million). The 300-clone from Relativity is headed for $102 million in North America when it crosses the finish line, according to the ShowBuzzDaily Domestic Final estimate.  International numbers for all recent films will be in our overseas round-up late Sunday.  Critics have been not been particularly supportive (37% positive at RottenTomatoes).     


Jack and Jill slightly exceeded its forecast ($9.85 million Friday for an estimated $26.5 million opening weekend, compared to a $22.5 million prediction).  The latest Adam Sandler comedy is headed for $79 million in North America.  Critics nationwide have been repulsed (only 3% positive at RottenTomatoes).

J. Edgar will open at expectations ($4.25 million Friday for an estimated $11.5 million opening weekend, compared to a $12.0 million prediction).  Playing in far fewer theaters (1,910) than the other openers (over 3,000+ each), this movie really should have had a solid per theater number (Clint Eastwood, diCaprio, historical drama, Oscar hopes).  But J. Edgar will average a little over $6,000 per theater, far below the $11,500 figure for Immortals and below even Jack and Jill's $7,700 average.  Yikes.  

  
Down a preliminary 20% from last weekend (another very good hold), Puss in Boots is still very much in the mix, with its Domestic Final estimate upgraded yet again to $149 million.  

In case you missed them, click to see this week's Weekend Predictions
  
November 11-13, 2011    Pre-Wknd    Wknd            Showbuzz
(millions)              Showbuzz    Early   Friday  Domestic
                        Forecast    Proj.   Actual   Final*
Puss In Boots (DW/Par)   [$25.0]    $28.0   $ 9.0     $149+
Jack and Jill (Sony)     [$22.5]    $26.5   $ 9.8     $ 79
Immortals (Rel)          [$22.5]    $36.0   $15.0     $102
Tower Heist (Uni)        [$13.0]    $13.7   $ 4.9     $ 80
J. Edgar (WB)            [$12.0]    $11.5   $ 4.2     $ 33
A Very Harold & Kumar WB [$ 6.0]    $ 5.7   $ 2.3     $ 38-
In Time (Fox)            [$ 4.5]    $ 4.2   $         $ 40

Paranormal Activity 3 Par[$ 4.0]    $ 3.7   $ 1.4     $106-
Footloose (Par)          [$ 3.2]    $ 2.8   $ 1.0     $ 56
Real Steel (DW/DIS)      [$ 2.2]    $ 1.9   $ 0.7     $ 87

Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend.  The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets).  The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column).  The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America.  A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade. 


Total Box Office Volume

The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like a weak $135 million total, up 21% from the same calendar weekend last year (when Unstoppable opened to $23 million and two others opened to a combined $21 million).         

Top 12 Films: Weekend #45

     Volume    Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2011  $135  Immortals $36, Jack and Jill $26, J. Edgar $12
2010  $112  Unstoppable $23, Skyline $12, Morning Glory $9    
2009  $129  2012 $65, Pirate Radio $3
2008  $138  Quantum of Solace $68
2007  $ 93  Beowulf $28, Mr Magorium's Wonder Emporium $10
2007-10
Avg   $118 



Next Weekend
Opening next week are Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn (Part One) from Summit, Happy Feet Two from Warner Brothers and The Descendants from Fox Searchlight.  Those movies will be compared to Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 ($125 million opening weekend) and The Next Three Days ($6.5 million). 

Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.

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THE BIJOU: Early Friday Boxoffice

1:49 AM | Labels: , , , , , ,


The Hollywood Reporter has preliminary boxoffice numbers for Friday, and early indications are good for IMMORTALS, which appears to have already earned $13.5-14M (including $1.4M from Thursday midnight screenings).  That should get it to an overperforming $33-35M for the weekend.  A couple of cautions about these extrapolations, though:  Friday was Veterans Day, which means unusually high numbers for the day and a weekend boxoffice multiple potentially lower than usual, and Immortals' kind of fanboy appeal also often leads to a front-loaded weekend.


It looks to be a tight battle for second place over the weekend, with JACK AND JILLand PUSS IN BOOTS both at $8-9M on Friday.  Both could be in the $24-26M range for the weekend, and either could pull ahead.

As expected, J. EDGAR (in a much smaller 1900 theatre run) is considerably behind, aiming for a long run with around $3.5-4M on Friday on its way to $10-12M for the weekend.  That would be in line with director Clint Eastwood's Hereafter last year, which made $12M in its first wide weekend at 2200 theatres, ultimately leading to a $33M US gross (and more than double that overseas).

TOWER HEIST had an OK but not exceptional hold with around $4.5M on Friday for probably a $13-14M second weekend--certainly not enough to suggest strong word of mouth will turn things around for the movie.

Stay with SHOWBUZZDAILY all weekend for updated boxoffice numbers and analysis...
  

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THE BIJOU REVIEW: "Jack and Jill"

12:50 PM | Labels: , , , , , , ,

 

JACK AND JILL:  Not At Any Price - 2 Adam Sandlers is 2 Too Many

Does anyone really expect an Adam Sandler movie to be good anymore?  Seriously, if you put aside his occasional relatively serious efforts (Funny People, Reign Over Me, Spanglish, Punch-Drunk Love, all boxoffice failures), and the occasional passable vehicle like Just Go With It earlier this year, what was the last Sandler movie that was actually enjoyable?  Grown Ups?  Bedtime Stories?  You Don't Mess With the Zohan?  I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry?  Click?  The Longest Yard?  How far back do you want to go?


And yet, except for those "serious" misfires, every one of those movies has made money.  So JACK AND JILL, which even by Sandler standards is pretty awful (it's currently at a 2% rating on Rotten Tomatoes, with 1 favorable review against 51 negatives), is likely to do the same.  

The concept of J&J is that if you love Sandler alone, you'll pass out with  bliss if there are 2 of him.  So Sandler plays both commercial producer Jack Sadelstein, who has a palatial house, a lovely wife (Katie Holmes, mutely pleading for even once chance to be funny) and 2 kids, and the bane of Jack's existence, his twin sister Jill.  Jill is whiny, needy, unattractrive, passive-aggressive, loaded with personal hygiene issues and generally pathetic, and Jack is hard-pressed to put up with her even for a 4-day Thanksgiving weekend.  But then he has to encourage her to stay even longer, because in a monumental contrivance, he needs to sign Al Pacino to appear in a Dunkin Donuts commercial (this is the actual Al Pacino playing Al Pacino), and Pacino is head over heels in love with Jill.

The laziness of Jack and Jill is staggering.    While Sandler deserves due credit for fully committing when he works with real filmmakers,when it comes to the star vehicles produced by his Happy Madison production company, he knows he doesn't have to exert himself.  J&J, like most of those vehicles, is made almost exclusively by Sandler's old buddies:   director Dennis Dugan (his 7th Sandler vehicle) writer Steve Koren (with Sandler himself), and a supporting cast that features such Happy Madison stalwarts as Allen Covert, Nick Swardson and David Spade. 

Sandler's performance(s), too, couldn't be more lacking in effort.  Playing Jill, he just puts on a funny voice out of his SNL skits and wears ugly outfits.  (When Jack himself goes into drag to impersonate Jill, there's no difference between the "real" Jill and Jack's version of her--and it's not because Jack is a brilliant actor.)  No one involved with the movie had any interest in creating believable characters or involving relationships--it's all rudimentary plot mechanics, fart and diarrhea and belching jokes, with a little cloying sentimentality and politically correct crypto-racism (the gardener played by Eugenio Derbez intersperses Latino stereotype gags with grimaces of "I'm keeding!") mixed in.  

The only one who didn't seem to get the memo about how little effort is required here (how did this movie cost a reported $80M?  Does Dennis Dugan quietly put half his budgets in land investments?  Is Happy Madison laundering Colombian drug money?) is, of all people, Al Pacino.  Pacino seems to think he's in Tootsie, or at least he's going to pretend he is, and he throws himself into the woeful material with absolute conviction, mining every conceivable laugh with a limitless willingness to mock himself, and shaming everyone around him.  

It's probably too much to hope, let alone expect, that Adam Sandler would take any of the intelligence and skill he's shown in his infrequent forays out of his comfort zone, and put them into his franchise movies.  As they are, they clearly entertain people, or else audiences wouldn't flock to them every year.  Sandler, who by all accounts is a genuinely good guy, gets to pal around with his friends for a few months every year, mug for the camera, and bank millions of dollars--who can blame him?  If he could just make them a bit less actively painful... but no, not likely.  Jack and Jill will doubtless feed the beast that is the Sandler fanbase.

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