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| $59.99 for home VOD -- Genius! |
Opening at more than 3,200 theaters in North America by Universal, Tower Heist should average a solid $9,300 per theater (for $29.5 million for Friday-Sunday). (All films the last two years have averaged $5,525 per theater in their opening weekend.) Much to Universal Distribution's horror, the theater count for the latest from Brett Ratner would have been much lower had Comcast gone through with the limited video-on-demand test of this movie while it was still in theaters -- and for the insane price of $59.99. In the end, cooler heads prevailed. Comcast scrapped the experiment, and theater owners ended talk of a boycott. So the opening should be a normal one, and Tower Heist has received surprisingly favorable reviews, with 78% positive at RottenTomatoes. The Ben Stiller-Eddie Murphy comedy should be on track for around $92 million in North America when it leaves theaters.
At about 2,800 theaters, A Very Harold & Kumar 3D Christmas from Warner Brothers should average a mediocre $5,900 per theater (for $16.5 million this weekend). The R-rated comedy has not been released for reviews. This movie is probably headed for around $43 million domestically. The first in the saga, Harold & Kumar Go to White Castle, opened with $5.5 million the weekend of 7.30.2004 (74% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes), ending with $18.3 million domestically and $5.7 million overseas. Next, Harold & Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay opened with $14.9 million the weekend of 4.25.2008 (53% positive reviews), finishing with $38.1 million domestically and $5.4 million overseas.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
November 4-6 Positive Weekend Total*
Tower Heist Uni PG13 78% $29.5 $ 92
A Very Harold & Kumar WB R n/a $16.5 $ 43
Christmas
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
The second weekend of Puss in Boots should be down a decent 30%, reflecting good word of mouth and catch-up business in the Northeast, where a very early snowstorm disrupted movie business -- and the delivery of electricity -- last weekend and into this week.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
November 4-6 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Puss in Boots DW/Par -30% $24.0 $128
Paranormal Activity 3 Par -55% $ 8.5 $117
In Time Fox -44% $ 7.0 $ 28
Footloose Par -34% $ 3.7 $ 55
Real Steel Sony -32% $ 3.5 $ 87
The Rum Diary FilmDis -41% $ 3.0 $ 17
Ides of March DW/DIS -27% $ 2.0 $ 42
The Three Musketeers Summ -46% $ 1.9 $ 20
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $119 million total, ranking 27th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend's total was $143 million (with three movies opening to a collective $98 million by serving different audiences and genre fans), and the same weekend in 2009 was $107 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like $103 million, down a withering 28% from this weekend last year and down 14% from the four-year average for this weekend.
This Weekend Last Two Years
11/5/10
Megamind PAR/ DW PG
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $51 Actual: $46
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $163 Actual: $148
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $173
Due Date WB R Robert Downey Jr Zach Galifianakis
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $33 Actual: $33
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $94 Actual: $100
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $111
For Colored Girls LG R Kimberly Elise Janet Jackson
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $21 Actual: $19
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $42 Actual: $38
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $0
11/6/09
A Christmas Carol DIS PG Jim Carrey
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $43 Actual: $30
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $122 Actual: $138
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $187
The Fourth Kind UNI PG13 Milla Jovovich
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $11 Actual: $12
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $26 Actual: $25
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $21
The Men Who Stare at Goats OVERTURE R George Clooney Jeff Bridges
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $11 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $38 Actual: $32
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $37
The Box WB PG13 Cameron Diaz James Marsden
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $8 Actual: $8
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $20 Actual: $15
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $17
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