At ABC, we have lowered the night by one-tenth of a rating point. We just aren't feeling it for Charlie's Angels and the returning soaps are another year older, after all. On CBS we have raised Big Bang Theory one-tenth to a 4.0, given strong repeat performance this summer. Despite the stronger lead-in, we have reduced How to Be a Gentleman a full three-tenths, making the half-hour decline one of the steepest on the schedule (sliding from 82% retention in May to 72% projected in September). NBC comedies from 8-9 pm are unchanged from May's estimates, although we have lowered The Office and Prime Suspect one-tenth and Whitney two-tenths. FOX estimates remain unchanged.
An important note: the ratings estimates are for original episodes across the entire Fall (from mid-September through mid-December). Generally, a series will premiere at a high level and then settle into a more normal number by week four-six. The important number to look at as the season unfolds is the average-to-date column at the far right. By the time episode four rolls around, look at the average of episodes one-four and you should have a pretty good idea how the fall -- and the entire season -- will sort out. CW shows are not currently estimated because we have incomplete historical data for the network's time periods. CW estimates should be available later this season or early next season.
THURSDAY FALL 2011 Estimates Episode Rating
May Sep #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 Avg
ABC
800 Charlie's Ang 2.3 2.2 9/22
900 Grey's Anatomy 3.7 3.6 9/22
1000 Private Practi 2.6 2.5 9/29
CBS
800 Big Bang Theor 3.9 4.0 9/22
830 How Gentleman 3.2 2.9 9/29
900 Person Interest3.5 3.5 9/22
1000 Mentalist 3.3 3.3 9/22
NBC
800 Community 1.9 1.9 9/22
830 Parks & Rec 2.1 2.1 9/22
900 The Office 3.1 3.0 9/22
930 Whitney 2.6 2.4 9/22
1000 Prime Suspect 2.5 2.4 9/22
FOX
800 X-Factor 3.4 3.4 9/22
900 Bones 2.5 2.5 11/3
CW
800 Vampire Diar n/a n/a 9/15
900 Secret Circle n/a n/a 9/15
Click below to read the UPDATED RATINGS PROJECTIONS for the other nights of the week:
Click below to read the ORIGINAL RATINGS PROJECTIONS for the other nights of the week (from May):
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