The sixth weekend of 2012 is actually something to get excited about. Better than the same weekend last year (yawn) but also stronger than a "typical" weekend for this time of year, looking at the past four years. A photo finish is in store between Safe House and The Vow (both around $36 million openings), while Journey 2 and Phantom Menace in 3D are both heaeded for over $20 million.
The Vow is also beating our prediction: earning $15.1 million Friday for a more front-loaded $36.4 million for Friday-Sunday, ahead of the $33.5 million prediction. Although The Vow made more money than Safe House on Friday, Safe House should catch it for the weekend (and even pass it) given stronger word of mouth. Safe House beats The Vow with critics (52% vs 28% positive at RottenTomatoes) and with opening night audiences (A- vs B CinemaScore grades). The Channing Tatum-Rachel McAdams romantic drama is headed for a preliminary $106 million domestic.
Journey 2: The Mysterious Island is hitting its also beating a less lofty expectation: $6.5 million Friday with a big kid-and-family multiple to $23.4 million this weekend, above the $17.5 million forecast. Journey 2 is on track for $67 million total domestic.
Star Wars: Episode 1 -- The Phantom Menace (re-released in 3D) grossed $8.5 million Friday in what should be a front-loaded weekend: $21.7 Friday-Sunday, just above the $20.5 million forecast. The re-issue should gross about $59 million domestic.
February 10-12, 2012 Pre-Wknd Wknd Showbuzz
(millions) Showbuzz Early FRI Domestic
Forecast Proj. Actual Final
Safe House (Uni) [$28.0] $36.4 $13.6 $112
The Vow (Sony) [$33.5] $36.4 $15.1 $106
Journey 2 (WB) [$17.5] $23.4 $ 6.5 $ 67
Phantom Menace 3D (Fox) [$20.5] $21.7 $ 8.5 $ 59
Chronicle (Fox) [$11.5] $12.0 $ 3.5 $ 70+
The Woman in Black (CBS) [$10.0] $11.4 $ 3.4 $ 62
The Grey (Open Road) [$ 5.2] $ 4.5 $ 1.3 $ 55-
Big Miracle (Uni) [$ 4.8] $ 3.7 $ 0.9 $ 23-
The Descendants (Fox) [$ 2.9] $ 3.2 $ 0.9 $ 70
Underworld Awakening (So)[$ ---] $ 2.4 $ 0.7 $ 66
Red Tails (Fox) [$ ---] $ 2.3 $ 0.6 $ 50
One for the Money (LG) [$ 2.7] $ 2.2 $ 0.7 $ 25
(millions) Showbuzz Early FRI Domestic
Forecast Proj. Actual Final
Safe House (Uni) [$28.0] $36.4 $13.6 $112
The Vow (Sony) [$33.5] $36.4 $15.1 $106
Journey 2 (WB) [$17.5] $23.4 $ 6.5 $ 67
Phantom Menace 3D (Fox) [$20.5] $21.7 $ 8.5 $ 59
Chronicle (Fox) [$11.5] $12.0 $ 3.5 $ 70+
The Woman in Black (CBS) [$10.0] $11.4 $ 3.4 $ 62
The Grey (Open Road) [$ 5.2] $ 4.5 $ 1.3 $ 55-
Big Miracle (Uni) [$ 4.8] $ 3.7 $ 0.9 $ 23-
The Descendants (Fox) [$ 2.9] $ 3.2 $ 0.9 $ 70
Underworld Awakening (So)[$ ---] $ 2.4 $ 0.7 $ 66
Red Tails (Fox) [$ ---] $ 2.3 $ 0.6 $ 50
One for the Money (LG) [$ 2.7] $ 2.2 $ 0.7 $ 25
Note: The table above summarizes an early look at the weekend. The first column is a reminder of each film's ShowBuzzDaily Forecast for the weekend (in brackets). The second column, on which the films are sorted, displays the new weekend projection for each film, based on the Friday numbers (the third column). The final column is a preliminary estimate of the ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Total number for the film's total run in North America. A "++" indicates the Domestic number has been upgraded; a "--" indicates a downgrade.
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $164 million total Friday-Sunday, up 21% from the same calendar weekend last year and more impressively up 8% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #6
Total Box Office Volume
The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like $164 million total Friday-Sunday, up 21% from the same calendar weekend last year and more impressively up 8% from the more typical volume for this weekend in other years.
Top 12 Films: Weekend #6
Volume Movies Opening Each Weekend (millions)
2012 $164 Safe House $38, The Vow $38, Journey 2 $23
2011 $135 Just Go With It $30, Justin Bieber $29, Gnomeo $25
2010 $189 Valentine's Day $56, Percy Jackson $31, Wolfman $31
2009 $163 Friday 13th $41, Confessions Shopaholic $15
2008 $118 Jumper $27, Spiderwick Chron $19, Step Up 2 $19
2008-11
Avg $151
Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.
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2012 $164 Safe House $38, The Vow $38, Journey 2 $23
2011 $135 Just Go With It $30, Justin Bieber $29, Gnomeo $25
2010 $189 Valentine's Day $56, Percy Jackson $31, Wolfman $31
2009 $163 Friday 13th $41, Confessions Shopaholic $15
2008 $118 Jumper $27, Spiderwick Chron $19, Step Up 2 $19
2008-11
Avg $151
Check back tomorrow for updated weekend figures and revised estimates for domestic final grosses.
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