Opening at more than 3,800 theaters in North America by Paramount for DreamWorks, Puss In Boots should average a very good $11,100 per theater (for $42.5 million for Friday-Sunday). (All films the last two years have averaged $5,525 per theater in their opening weekend.) Puss In Boots has received mostly favorable reviews, with 85% positive at RottenTomatoes. The spin-off from the Shrek series should be on track for around $150 million in North America when it leaves theaters.
At about 3,000 theaters, In Time from 20th Century Fox should average a weak $4,300 per theater (for $13 million this weekend). The sci-fi thriller has a not very encouraging 38% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes so far. This movie is probably headed for around $31 million domestically.
At about 2,100 theaters, The Rum Diary distributed by FilmDistrict should average a weak $3,800 per theater (for $8 million this weekend). The Johnny Depp film has received a mildly warm critical reception: 64% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes currently. This movie is probably headed for around $28 million domestically.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
October 28-30 Positive Weekend Total*
Puss In Boots DW/Par PG 85% $42.5 $151
In Time Fox PG13 38% $13.0 $ 31
The Rum Diary FilmDis R 64% $ 8.0 $ 28
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
The second weekend of Paranormal Activity 3 should behave like a suspense/horror sequel and drop 60% but still delivering tens of millions more to Paramount's bottom line this weekend.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
October 21-23 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Paranormal Activity 3 Par -60% $21.1 $112
Real Steel Sony -40% $ 6.5 $ 93
Footloose Par -37% $ 6.5 $ 59
The Three Musketeers Summ -47% $ 4.6 $ 20
Ides of March DW/DIS -32% $ 3.3 $ 43
Moneyball Sony -28% $ 2.9 $ 75
Dolphin Tale WB -42% $ 2.5 $ 76
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $91 million total, ranking 44th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend's total was $85 million and the same weekend in 2009 was $83 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like $115 million, up a very solid 36% from this weekend last year and up 27% from the four-year average for this weekend.
This Weekend Last Two Years
10/29/10
Saw 3D LG R Kimberly Elise Janet Jackson
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $22 Actual: $23
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $50 Actual: $46
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $90
10/30/09
Michael Jackson's This Is It SONY PG Michael Jackson
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $38 Actual: $23
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $95 Actual: $72
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $189
0 comments:
Post a Comment