This weekend should be another good one versus last year, up around 9%. The strongest entry looks to be Hugh Jackman and the robot boxers in Real Steel -- it's playing in a lot of theaters and we expect a very solid per screen average, giving it a forecast $26 million opening. (Aside from The Lion King 3D reissue, this would be the best opening since The Help in mid-August.) In contrast, George Clooney's The Ides of March is opening in a below average number of theaters. Although its per theater number should be decent (but not as high as Real Steel's), the opening weekend box office should be half of Real Steel's tally. Family favorite Dolphin Tale should round out the top three. Opening at more than 3,300 theaters in North America by Disney for DreamWorks, Real Steel should average a sturdy $7,900 per theater (for $26 million for Friday-Sunday). (All films the last two years have averaged $5,525 per theater in their opening weekend.) Real Steel has received mostly favorable reviews, with 71% positive at RottenTomatoes. This Hugh Jackman actioner should be on track for around $80 million in North America when it leaves theaters.
At only about 2,000 theaters, The Ides of March from Sony should average a good $6,600 per theater (for $13 million this weekend). The George Clooney-Ryan Gosling political thriller has a very good 80% positive reviews at RottenTomatoes. This movie is probably headed for around $45 million domestically, although if it is in the Oscar hunt that will be revised upward significantly.
(millions)
New Films Critics Opening Domestic
October 2-9 Positive Weekend Total*
Real Steel Sony PG13 71% $ 26.0 $ 80
Ides of March DW/DIS R 80% $ 13.0 $ 45
Note: Although critic reviews are not related to the size of the opening weekend, they are significantly correlated with the size of the declines in the opening weeks of a movie.
* The Domestic Total is a very early ShowBuzzDaily projection of the total North American gross, based on the Weekend Forecasts.
The third weekend film of Dolphin Tale should be the most significant player this weekend among the holdovers but not enough to challenge either of the two opening films.
(millions)
Major Returning Films Change This Domestic
October 2-9 vs wknd 1 Weekend Total*
Dolphin Tale WB -25% $10.5 $ 75
Moneyball Sony -36% $ 8.0 $ 75
Courageous Sony -35% $ 6.0 $ 25
50/50 Summit -38% $ 5.5 $ 35
Lion King 3D Dis -55% $ 5.0 $115
Dream House Uni -52% $ 4.0 $ 11
What's Your Number? Fox -45% $ 3.0 $ 12
Abduction LG -45% $ 3.0 $ 28
Contagion WB -42% $ 3.0 $ 80
Box Office Volume
For the past four years, the top 12 films in the comparable weekend have averaged $87 million total, ranking 45th of 52 weeks. Last year this weekend's total was $81 million and the same weekend in 2009 was $96 million. This Friday-Sunday is looking like $89 million, up about 9% from this weekend last year but only 2% above the four-year average for this weekend.
This Weekend Last Two Years
10/8/10
Life As We Know It WB PG13 Katherine Heigl Josh Duhamel
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $16 Actual: $15
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $49 Actual: $53
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $52
Secretariat DIS PG Diane Lane John Malkovich
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $15 Actual: $13
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $54 Actual: $60
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $1
My Soul to Take UNI R
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $8 Actual: $7
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $14 Actual: $15
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $6
10/9/09
Couples Retreat UNI PG13 Vince Vaughn Jason Bateman
Opening Weekend -- Forecast: $26 Actual: $34
Domestic Gross -- Estimate: $100 Actual: $109
International -- Estimate: n/a Actual: $61
Come back throughout the weekend to see how the movies actually perform. Saturday morning we will have an early look at how the weekend is shaping up as a whole (based on Friday's early numbers), on Sunday we will have initial studio estimates (based on Friday and Saturday actuals), and Monday we will have the final weekend numbers.
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