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FRIDAY NUMBERS: Wimpy Kid to Edge Sucker Punch; Weekend Soft Overall

Based on Friday's numbers, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules is coming in at the ShowbuzzDaily forecast, according to preliminary weekend estimates.  Sucker Punch is looking like it will miss the forecast by $2 million.  The ShowbuzzDaily Domestic Ultimate estimate is significantly higher for Diary than Sucker ($69 million vs $43 million).  Limitless and Lincoln Lawyer are looking like they will have better weekends than expected, and their ultimate domestic grosses have been upgraded.   

                                           Showbuzz
                        Showbuzz   Early   Domestic
                        Forecast   Proj.   Ultimate
Diary Wimpy Kid 2 (Fox)  $21.5     $22.0     $69
Sucker Punch (WB)        $22       $20.0     $43
Limitless (Rel)          $11       $14.5     $81 (upgrade)
Lincoln Lawyer (LG)      $ 8.5     $10.3     $59 (upgrade)
Rango (Par)              $10       $ 8.7     $126
Battle: LA (Sony)        $ 7       $ 7.2     $87
Paul (Uni)               $ 7       $ 7.1     $44



The Top 12 Films this weekend are looking like they will total $103 million -- not a great number compared to the past four-year average for the last weekend in March or compared to this weekend last year, when How to Train Your Dragon opened with more than the combined total of the Diary and Sucker openings.  The weekend looks like a solid double-digit decline.

Top 12 Films: Last Weekend in March

       Volume
2011    $103  (-11% vs 2007-10 average; -12% vs 2010) 

4yr-Avg $116  
              Movies Opening That Weekend
2010    $117  How Train Dragon ($44), Hot Tub Time Machine ($14)
2009    $139  Monster vs Aliens ($59), Haunting in CT ($23) 
2008    $ 90  21 ($24), Superhero Movie ($9.5), Stop Loss ($4.6)
2007    $116  Blades of Glory ($33), Meet the Robinsons ($25)

Look for updates of the weekend box office on Sunday, based on the Saturday actual numbers.  And coming in the next few days is the first in a series of detailed looks at the international performance of current films (a great idea from ShowbuzzDaily reader Ted Frank).

--Mitch Metcalf

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